Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has recently slipped back toward $68,000, erasing some of its gains from the previous weeks.

Bitcoin’s price had previously surged to a six-week high of $76,000, recovering $13,000 since the escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, after reaching this peak, Bitcoin faced a sharp rejection and has since fallen by $8,000. 

The price volatility is compounded by broader market trends, as Bitcoin now struggles to maintain its position above the $68,000 support level. The current trading range is marked by price fluctuations, with Bitcoin caught between support at $68,000 and resistance at $76,000.

Analysts, including Michaël van de Poppe, have noted that Bitcoin is stuck within a range, awaiting a breakout. Van de Poppe stated, “Nothing special so far for $BTC,” suggesting that Bitcoin’s movement remains largely dependent on reaching either the lower or upper bounds of the range, where traders may act on the volatility.

Macro factors and federal reserve’s influence

A major reason behind Bitcoin’s recent price decline can be traced to the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. Despite expectations that no changes would be made during its latest meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks about inflation concerns have added pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Powell indicated that rate cuts may not occur for over a year, leading to uncertainty in markets, including cryptocurrencies.

This outlook has contributed to a more cautious approach from investors, as market volatility tends to increase under such conditions. As predictions suggest that rate cuts could be delayed, Bitcoin’s price faces downward pressure, mirroring the broader downturn in risk assets.

In addition, geopolitical developments, particularly the escalating tensions in the Middle East, also played a role in Bitcoin’s price decline. A dramatic dip was observed after U.S. President Trump made threats regarding Iran, which caused a brief but sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price. These events highlight the sensitive nature of Bitcoin as a risk-on asset, reacting swiftly to global political unrest.

Bitcoin’s volatility is often exacerbated by such geopolitical tensions, as investors move funds into or out of assets like Bitcoin based on the prevailing market sentiment.

ETF reversal and capital outflows

Another factor contributing to Bitcoin’s price decline is the reversal in ETF inflows. Bitcoin ETFs had seen a strong seven-day streak of positive inflows, reaching $200 million on March 17. 

However, in the days that followed, investors began pulling funds out, with more than $300 million in withdrawals over the course of three days. This sudden shift in ETF flows coincided with Bitcoin’s price correction, indicating that institutional sentiment may be cooling, adding to the overall market pressure.

Ripple’s (XRP) price has recently slipped after a failed recovery attempt, with high-volume selling pushing the token back toward a key support level of $1.40. The token has struggled with a broader corrective phase since its peak in mid-2025, with rallies consistently failing to build momentum.

XRP’s price is currently $1.40, experiencing a 3% decline over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency’s market cap stands at approximately $86 billion. 

Despite some short-term attempts at recovery, XRP remains trapped in a larger corrective phase. The latest pullback comes after a brief rebound in mid-March, which failed to surpass the $1.60 mark.

XRP’s price struggles are compounded by macroeconomic factors, with the Federal Reserve’s recent policy stance influencing broader market sentiment. This has led to a cautious trading environment for many cryptocurrencies, including XRP. While the asset’s technical structure shows some resilience, traders are closely monitoring whether XRP can stabilize or continue to fall within its established range.

Retail adoption and institutional caution

While institutional interest in XRP remains cautious, the cryptocurrency continues to see strong support from retail investors. According to crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, XRP is currently in the retest phase of a macro ascending triangle, and the pullback in price is seen as confirmation rather than weakness. Egrag highlights a bullish long-term view, with potential price targets for XRP reaching $8, $17, and $27, provided the trendline holds.

Retail demand is becoming a key driver of XRP’s growth, with blockchain data showing a strong retail presence. Analysts are optimistic about the asset’s future potential, especially as macroeconomic factors and regulatory clarity evolve. However, skepticism remains within institutional circles, reflecting the more conservative approach from major investors.

XRP’s exchange activity signals resilience

Despite recent price declines, XRP continues to show resilience, with activity on top crypto exchanges, particularly Binance, signaling sustained demand. Data from CryptoQuant shows a modest shortage of XRP reserves on Binance, dropping to $2.79 billion as of March 22. 

This suggests that traders are either holding onto their XRP or buying more, rather than selling off their holdings. XRP’s performance on exchanges indicates that the asset has not lost its appeal to investors, even amid the broader market downturn. 

Moreover, XRP’s price action will likely depend on upcoming regulatory developments and broader market conditions. Analyst X Finance Bull points out that various catalysts, including the potential passage of the CLARITY Act and growing institutional interest, could provide upward momentum for XRP. However, the asset’s performance will continue to be shaped by both retail sentiment and institutional caution, creating a complex market dynamic moving forward.

Bitcoin faced a retreat after a brief surge tied to geopolitical jitters, slipping back in line with the broader risk-off tone that has weighed on US equities in recent sessions. The move underscores a renewed relationship between BTC and traditional markets as macro headwinds persist.

As of Sunday, BTC/USD traded around $68,700, down about 5.7% for the week, while the S&P 500 finished the period down roughly 1.9%. The renewed correlation with equities adds a layer of caution for traders who had hoped for a decoupling amid persistent inflation, elevated oil prices, and a less favorable outlook for aggressive monetary easing.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s recent uptick in correlation with the S&P 500 has historically preceded deeper price declines, with average drawdowns near 50% since 2018.
• The BTC-SPX relationship has tightened again, with the 20-week rolling correlation easing to about 0.13 after previously flirting with negative territory.
• Absent fresh buying by major strategic holders, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to a broader risk-off sell-off that could pull BTC lower along with equities.
• Analysts have pointed to downside targets around $34,350 if the historical pattern repeats; some projections still contemplate a Bitcoin bottom in the $30k–$40k range in the longer run, depending on macro developments.

Correlation with equities reemerges as a market signal

The renewed BTC-Stock connection is being watched closely by traders and analysts. A rising 20-week correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 suggests that Bitcoin may be increasingly swept up in risk-off dynamics that pressure equities, rather than acting as a separate flight-to-safety vehicle. The latest reading sits near 0.13, a rebound from a period when the metric briefly hovered around negative territory, underscoring how quickly Bitcoin can move in step with the stock complex during macro stress.

Historically, patterns where BTC begins to track the stock market more closely have tended to precede larger corrections in Bitcoin’s price. Tony Severino, a market analyst, described the dynamic as a warning sign that a broader stock-market pullback could pull BTC lower as well. While past performance is not a guarantee of future moves, the implication for traders is clear: macro headwinds can reassert themselves and pull the crypto cycle back toward the risk-off regime seen in prior cycles.

From a price perspective, the research across periods since 2018 points to severe downside when the BTC-SPX correlation strengthens after a long stretch of independence. If the current pattern holds, a hypothetical 50% decline from the present level would place Bitcoin near $34,350—a level some analysts have flagged as a plausible target if weaker macro conditions persist and risk assets continue to slide.

Macro backdrop and the path to a potential bottom

The renewed risk-off tone is reinforced by macro indicators that weigh on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Elevated oil prices, ongoing inflation pressures, and a less-than-dovish stance on rate expectations all contribute to a bearish tilt for both stocks and risk assets, including BTC. In this environment, the likelihood of a policy shift that would spur a quick re-acceleration in risk appetites appears constrained in the near term, adding another layer of complexity for traders trying to gauge the timing of any meaningful crypto upcycle.

Market observers have revisited historical analogs where Bitcoin’s price action lagged turns in the equity market. In 2020 and 2022, for instance, Bitcoin’s declines often followed shifts in equity correlations after bullish false starts that briefly lifted BTC before selling pressure resumed. The current backdrop—tighter correlations paired with macro headwinds—suggests investors should brace for a broader test of BTC’s resilience if risk appetite remains elusive.

Strategic holdings pause compounds caution

The intraweek dynamic around strategic Bitcoin buyers adds another dimension to the risk calculus. Strategy (the firm behind the STRC vehicle) has not executed fresh BTC purchases through its STRC listing this week, per data tracked by STRC.LIVE. This follows a March 16 action in which the firm declared a buy that added 22,337 BTC worth about $1.57 billion, lifting its total holdings to roughly 761,068 BTC. That purchase had coincided with a period when Bitcoin outperformed US stocks, contributing to a temporary resilience in the crypto market.

With no new buys this week, Bitcoin’s near-term outlook hinges more on external risk appetite than on the stabilizing force of large, long-duration demand from major corporate buyers. In a risk-off regime, the absence of fresh strategic accumulation could leave BTC more exposed to downdrafts in the broader market, rather than benefiting from any immediate, independent crypto-driven catalysts.

As the market weighs macro signals and evolving correlations, investors are paying closer attention to how BTC behaves as equities navigate volatility. The question remains whether Bitcoin can reassert its own narrative—an inflation hedge narrative or a technology-led growth story—or if it continues to ride the coattails of stock-market dynamics until macro headwinds ease.

This article does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making trading decisions.

Bitcoin and most altcoins experienced a decline in value following recent geopolitical developments, with Bitcoin facing rejection at $71,000. 

The broader cryptocurrency market, including Ethereum, XRP, and other major tokens, followed Bitcoin’s downward trend. Meanwhile, one altcoin, SIREN, managed to defy the market slump with a significant surge.

Bitcoin’s price faced significant volatility this week, with a high of $76,000 on Monday after it broke above $74,000. However, its upward momentum was short-lived, and the price quickly returned to $74,000 by Wednesday. 

Volatility spiked ahead of and after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with Bitcoin falling by $3,000 before the event. After the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged, Bitcoin briefly bounced back to $72,000. 

However, hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding no rate reductions in 2026 led to another drop, with Bitcoin reaching a three-week low of around $68,000. Despite efforts to recover, the cryptocurrency is still struggling to regain stability.

Altcoins follow Bitcoin’s decline

Ethereum has experienced a decline of over $300 since its peak of $2,400, dropping below $2,100. XRP also saw a sharp drop, rejected at $1.60, and now struggles below $1.40. Other prominent altcoins like Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), and Chainlink (LINK) are all down by 2-4% in the past 24 hours.

One of the worst performers in this market downturn has been HYPE, which lost almost 5% of its value and now trades around $38. ZEC (Zcash) also experienced a significant drop, shedding 7% of its value. Other altcoins such as AAVE, DOT, and SUI are down by 3-4%.

SIREN defies the market slump

While the majority of the crypto market faced losses, SIREN, an AI-focused cryptocurrency operating on the BNB chain, saw a remarkable surge. The token skyrocketed by 90% in the past 24 hours, reaching a new all-time high of over $1.70. 

SIREN’s performance stands in contrast to the broader market slump, making it one of the standout performers during this period of market uncertainty.

Moreover, the total cryptocurrency market cap has taken a hit, shedding nearly $200 billion since Wednesday morning. As of the latest data, the total market cap stands at $2.43 trillion. This decline is a direct result of the drop in Bitcoin and altcoin prices, which have been influenced by both macroeconomic factors and market sentiment following the FOMC meeting.

A new report from 10x Research reveals that the cryptocurrency market is currently seeing a divide in capital flows between retail and institutional investors. While institutional capital continues to support assets like Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH), the XRP ecosystem is experiencing strong growth driven by retail adoption.

According to the 10x Research report, XRP’s price action is mainly supported by “strong retail demand and expanding utility.” The XRP ecosystem is seeing increasing adoption, with retail investors leading the charge in its growth. 

While institutional interest in XRP remains cautious, retail investors continue to push the asset forward. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is developing real-world use cases, but the absence of significant institutional flows reflects a more conservative stance from Wall Street.

Institutional capital continues to be a driving force for other major cryptocurrencies, particularly Solana and Ethereum. According to the report, institutional interest in Solana remains strong, as shown by its $20 million in ETF net flows for the week, while Ethereum has seen institutional outflows of $60 million. 

In contrast, XRP ETFs only saw a modest $0.6 million in positive flows, reinforcing the notion that institutional investors are still cautious about XRP despite its growing retail base.

In addition, XRP’s strength is being supported by growing on-chain retail adoption. Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported that the XRP Ledger recently reached a new milestone, with 5.66 million wallets holding under 100 XRP. This surge in retail participation signals that the XRP ecosystem is attracting more users despite the lack of significant institutional investment.

Ripple’s CTO emeritus David Schwartz recently engaged in an interesting exchange on X, responding to a post about XRP with a meme and supporting comments. 

Meanwhile, the interaction occurred after a statement from Solana Foundation President Lily Liu, which sparked reactions from the crypto community, particularly surrounding the future of blockchain gaming.

The conversation began when Solana’s official X account responded to a tweet from the Solana Foundation President, Lily Liu, who had stated that blockchain gaming was “not coming back.” In response, an X user jokingly announced they were switching chains and asked for a recommendation. Solana’s official account replied, saying, 

“we hear XRP is nice this time of year.”

This prompted Ripple CTO emeritus David Schwartz to engage with the tweet from XRP-friendly exchange Bitrue. Bitrue had shared Solana’s tweet, and Schwartz responded with a GIF meme saying, “You’re goddamn right,” further fueling the ongoing discussion about XRP and Solana’s relationship. This playful back-and-forth highlighted the ongoing rivalry and camaraderie between the two blockchain ecosystems.

In December 2025, XRP made its way onto the Solana blockchain via Hex Trust’s wrapped XRP (wXRP) token. This move allowed XRP to be traded alongside the Ripple USD stablecoin (RLUSD) on the Solana network, marking a significant step in the collaboration between the two blockchains. The integration also raised curiosity about how these ecosystems could coexist and complement each other.

Schwartz’s response reflects the growing relationship between the two projects. Despite the ongoing competition in the blockchain space, it appears that XRP and Solana are finding ways to collaborate and engage with each other’s communities.

XRP Ledger activity and AI coding

Meanwhile, XRP Ledger (XRPL) has seen a spike in activity recently, with XRPL validator Vet suggesting that increased use of AI tools and scripts might be contributing to the rise in transactions. While this increase in activity is positive, Vet pointed out that it often results in complex queries or failed transactions, which can overload public infrastructure.

One user experienced a costly mishap, spending over $2,000 in transaction fees due to failed XRP Ledger transactions. Vet cautioned that while AI tools may improve efficiency, users should remain cautious and oversee their transactions to prevent potential issues.

VanEck, a prominent investment firm, has observed a shift in the Bitcoin (BTC) options market, highlighting growing defensive positioning from investors. The recent surge in put option demand and the drop in call option premiums signal a cautious outlook for Bitcoin’s price. This trend reflects investor concerns about macroeconomic factors and market volatility.

In early 2026, the Bitcoin options market has shown signs of heightened caution. VanEck’s analysis reveals that the put/call open interest ratio has risen to 0.84, the highest level since June 2021, reflecting stronger demand for downside protection. 

Over the past 30 days, investors spent approximately $685 million on put options, signaling their concern for further price declines. Meanwhile, premiums on call options fell about 12%, to around $562 million, suggesting that bullish sentiment has waned.

This shift in sentiment coincides with a 19% decline in Bitcoin’s price over the last month. Despite this drop, spot prices have stabilized, and the market has entered a phase of consolidation, with volatility decreasing from 80 to 50. The drop in futures funding rates, which fell from 4.1% to 2.7%, further suggests that leverage in the market has cooled.

VanEck’s report indicates that the demand for downside protection is at its highest level in recent cycles. The put premiums relative to spot volume have reached an all-time high, with put premiums three times higher than levels seen during the market stresses of mid-2022. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium to hedge against further price drops, signaling a defensive stance.

The options skew, where put options are more expensive than call options, reflects this growing concern. As of March 2026, the cost of protecting against price drops is significantly higher than the cost of betting on price increases, with implied volatility on puts averaging 66, which is 16 points higher than realized volatility. Historically, this type of skew has often been seen before Bitcoin’s price rebounds.

Industry trends and network activity

Despite the heightened caution in the options market, other indicators show that the Bitcoin market is stabilizing. On-chain activity, such as transaction volume and daily active addresses, has declined, reflecting a more subdued speculative environment. However, long-term holder selling seems to be slowing down, which could be a positive sign for the market’s stability.

Bitcoin’s price recently surged to $70,000 before correcting, indicating potential signs of a cyclical bottom. VanEck’s CEO, Jan VanEck, has suggested that this may signal a recovery for Bitcoin, as the market adjusts to lower volatility and reduced leverage.

Bitcoin (BTC) erased much of its US-Iran war-driven gains this week, moving back in sync with the broader downtrend in risk assets, mainly US equities.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s positive flip in S&P 500 correlation has historically preceded average declines of around 50% since 2018.

• BTC is exposed to a broader risk-asset sell-off due to rising macro pressure.

As of Sunday, BTC/USD had fallen 5.65% week-to-date to about $68,700, while the S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week down 1.90%.

That renewed correlation is now signaling a greater risk of further downside in the Bitcoin market.

BTC drops 50% on average when it starts following stocks

The bearish warning for Bitcoin comes from a weekly correlation metric comparing BTC and the S&P 500 (SPX), the US equity benchmark index.

As of Saturday, the 20-week rolling correlation between BTC and SPX was 0.13, up from its recent nadir of around -0.5.

Since 2018, such sharp recoveries in BTC-SPX correlation have been preceding broader Bitcoin market declines, averaging at about -50%.

“It is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it,” said analyst Tony Severino.

A 50% drop from Bitcoin’s current price would imply a downside target of roughly $34,350 if the historical pattern repeats. Multiple analysts have projected Bitcoin to drop as low as $30,000–$40,000 in 2026.

In 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin’s declines lagged by several months, unfolding after classic “bull traps” in which BTC rallied alongside rising SPX correlation before reversing and wiping out those gains.

Related: Bitcoin options signal fear even as BTC ETF outflows remain relatively low

Macro conditions, such as elevated oil prices, inflation, and lower odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, support the bearish outlook for Bitcoin and equities over the coming months.

Strategy pause adds to cautious outlook

Bitcoin’s renewed correlation with equities is also coinciding with a pause in corporate accumulation.

Strategy (MSTR), one of the largest Bitcoin holders, hasn’t bought BTC via the sales of its STRC preferred stock this week, according to data resource STRC.LIVE.

Its last acquisition, announced March 16, added 22,337 BTC worth $1.57 billion, bringing total holdings to 761,068 BTC. Bitcoin rallied by around 10.50% in the same period, beating US stocks.

Strategy’s STRC-fueled buying helped support Bitcoin’s rally during the US–Iran war. With no fresh purchases this week, BTC is more exposed to the potential sell-off in stocks.