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The crypto crowd is so convinced this rally is a fakeout, it might trigger short squeeze

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Potential bull trap or breakout? (TradingView)

Bitcoin pushed above $73,000 this week, reclaiming a key psychological level that had capped the market for weeks. Yet the breakout has been met with an unusual reaction across crypto markets: widespread skepticism.

Many traders are warning that the move could become a classic bull trap — a brief breakout that lures in late buyers before reversing lower. Analysts have pointed to heavy overhead supply and positioning in derivatives markets as potential risks, with some suggesting a rally into the $72,000–$76,000 range could attract sellers rather than confirm a sustained recovery.

The caution stems partly from recent history. Earlier this year, Bitcoin appeared to break out of a consolidation range, only to reverse violently. The move trapped momentum traders and triggered a cascade of liquidations as the price plunged from around $98,000 to roughly $60,000 within two weeks — a reminder of how quickly sentiment can flip in crypto.

Potential bull trap or breakout? (TradingView)
Potential bull trap or breakout? (TradingView)

But the current setup may present a paradox: the trade has become crowded on the bearish side.

Across crypto Twitter, analysts and chartists are widely calling for a bull trap. That consensus itself raises the possibility of the opposite outcome — a squeeze higher that forces short sellers to cover. In leveraged markets, strong directional agreement often creates the liquidity needed for moves in the other direction.

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Macro uncertainty could also complicate the outlook. Geopolitical tensions following the Iran conflict have already pushed gold higher and lifted oil price expectations, while some Asian equity markets have shown signs of stress. Radu Tunaru, professor of finance and risk management at Henley Business School, argues geopolitical shocks have historically played a role in major market sell-offs. He points to the 1987 Black Monday crash, which he believes was partly triggered by U.S.–Iran tensions that first rattled Asian markets before spreading globally.

For now, Bitcoin’s breakout above $73,000 has revived bullish momentum — but price action over the coming days will determine whether a bottom is truly in or if this is an accurately predicted bull trap.

To regain a bullish macro structure, bitcoin needs to trade back into the $98,000 region to snap the grueling lower high formed by the previous bull trap in January.

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Crypto World

A16z Crypto Raises $2 Billion Fund Amid Market Downturn

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A16z Crypto Raises $2 Billion Fund Amid Market Downturn

Crypto venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz is doubling down on crypto despite a major market downturn, seeking $2 billion for a new crypto fund.

A16z Crypto, the blockchain arm of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, is raising a fifth fund focused on crypto with plans to close by mid-2026, according to Fortune, citing anonymous sources on Wednesday.

The latest round is significantly smaller than its previous $4.5 billion fund from 2022, but the company has shifted to a shorter fundraising cycle to remain flexible to ever-changing crypto narratives. 

The move comes amid a crypto bear market that has seen more than $2 trillion wiped from total market capitalization since its peak of around $4.4 trillion in early October.

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A16z crypto chief Chris Dixon’s Web3 philosophy envisioned a decentralized internet with applications built on blockchains, according to his 2024 book, “Read Write Own.”

But many of those investments have not panned out, notably decentralized X (Twitter) competitor Farcaster, which returned $180 million to investors after selling off its infrastructure in January. 

Crypto VCs exploring non-crypto tech

Wall Street crypto buffs have narrowed their focus lately toward stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization, and financial products, with many venture capitalists following that shift. Others have started to look towards other areas of technology.

Co-founder of venture firm Multicoin Capital, Kyle Samani, stepped down in February to “explore new areas of technology,” such as AI, longevity, and robotics. 

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Meanwhile, crypto venture firm Paradigm is expanding into artificial intelligence and robotics with its latest fund seeking to raise $1.5 billion, as reported in late February. 

Related: Crypto slides, but tokenized RWAs and VC push ahead

A16z raised over $15 billion in January to invest in companies and technologies it deemed critical to secure America’s future, mentioning AI and crypto and including technologies in “key areas that generate human flourishing,” such as biology, health, defense, public safety, education, and entertainment.

A16z sees opportunity in AI, crypto in 2026

A16z recently highlighted crypto and AI as major themes for 2026, stating that it expected AI to automate cybersecurity work, AI models to become app stores, privacy to become the “most important moat in crypto,” prediction markets to get “bigger, broader, and smarter,” and stablecoins to become more intertwined with traditional banking and finance. 

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According to DeFiLlama’s fundraising aggregator, crypto startups raised $895 million in February, down almost 40% from the $1.47 billion raised the previous month and marginally less than the $1 billion raised in February 2025. 

Crypto venture funding has declined 77% since October. Source: DeFiLlama

Magazine: 6 massive challenges Bitcoin faces on the road to quantum security