Crypto World
The Fed has a new chair. What it means for crypto
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 22, 2026, after the Senate confirmed him 54-45, the closest vote in the central bank’s modern history. He is, by a wide margin, the most crypto-literate person ever to hold the role.
Summary
- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has taken office as the most crypto-familiar leader in the central bank’s history, with past ties to Bitcoin and stablecoin-related ventures.
- Bitcoin fell after Warsh’s appointment as markets focused on his support for tighter monetary policy and expectations that interest rates could remain elevated through 2026.
- Analysts say a softer inflation outlook could eventually give Warsh room to cut rates, a scenario that could improve liquidity conditions for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
He has called Bitcoin “the new gold” for younger investors, said it “does not make me nervous,” holds personal stakes in a Bitcoin payments startup, the crypto index manager Bitwise, and a stablecoin venture, and has been a vocal opponent of a government-issued digital dollar. On paper, that reads like the most pro-crypto Fed chair imaginable.
And yet Bitcoin fell to $74,190 the weekend right after he took office, and has kept sliding since, now trading near $62,000. The reason is the paradox at the center of Warsh’s appointment, and it is the most important macro story in crypto right now. The man most sympathetic to Bitcoin as an idea may be the least friendly to the conditions Bitcoin’s price actually needs.
This piece explains who Warsh is, why his arrival pressured crypto rather than lifting it, and what to watch as his Fed takes shape.
The most crypto-literate chair ever
Start with why Warsh looked, on paper, like the best possible outcome for crypto.
No previous Fed chair has come close to his level of direct engagement with digital assets. His disclosed holdings include an equity stake in a Bitcoin payments startup, ties to Bitwise, the crypto index manager behind a spot Bitcoin ETF, and a position in a stablecoin project. He had to divest these to comply with the Fed’s 2022 rule barring governors from holding crypto-related assets, but the holdings themselves signal genuine familiarity, not the arms-length skepticism most central bankers bring to the subject.
His public statements reinforce it. Warsh has called Bitcoin “the new gold for people under 40,” described it as a potential “sustainable store of value, like gold,” and said plainly that it “does not make me nervous.” He has consistently separated Bitcoin, which he treats as a legitimate store of value, from the broader universe of private crypto projects, many of which he has dismissed as “worthless.”
And he has been a firm opponent of a US central bank digital currency, the government-issued digital dollar that much of the crypto industry views as a surveillance threat and a competitor to private stablecoins. For an industry that spent years fearing a CBDC, having an anti-CBDC chair is a real structural win.
So the crypto-native case for Warsh is straightforward: he understands the technology, he respects Bitcoin specifically, he opposes the CBDC, and he is likely to set a constructive tone on the questions that will define crypto’s regulatory future, stablecoin rules, bank custody standards, and digital payment infrastructure. On those slower-moving institutional questions, his chairmanship may well prove to be a tailwind.
The problem is that none of that is what moved the price when he took office.
Why his arrival pressured crypto anyway
When Warsh was sworn in, Bitcoin did not rally on the arrival of a friendly face. It fell to $74,190, its lowest level in over a month at the time. To understand why, you have to separate what Warsh thinks about crypto from what Warsh thinks about money.
Warsh is, above all, a monetary hawk. He is a veteran of the 2008 financial crisis who has spent years favoring tighter monetary policy, higher real interest rates, and a smaller Fed balance sheet. That worldview, often called “sound money,” is the opposite of the easy-money environment that has fueled every major crypto bull run.
Crypto rallies thrive on abundant liquidity and low interest rates, conditions that push investors out along the risk curve toward speculative assets. A chair committed to draining liquidity and keeping rates high is, whatever his personal views on Bitcoin, presiding over an environment that works against crypto’s price.
The timing made it worse. Warsh inherited an inflation problem: April’s CPI came in at 3.8 percent, the highest reading in nearly three years and well above the Fed’s 2 percent target. He had previously signaled some openness to lower rates, but the hot inflation data made that position much harder to defend.
Markets responded by slashing their expectations for rate cuts. By the time he took office, traders were pricing a 62 percent probability of zero rate cuts in all of 2026, and that figure has since climbed toward 69 percent. The market is now betting the Fed holds rates high for the entire year.
There was also a specific moment that crystallized the market’s read. During his Senate testimony, Warsh said President Trump had never asked him to promise rate cuts. That single statement, signaling his independence from the White House’s demands for aggressive easing, triggered a sharp Bitcoin selloff. Traders had been hoping a Trump-appointed chair would mean fast cuts. Warsh told them not to count on it.
So the paradox resolves cleanly. The market does not price the Fed chair’s opinion of Bitcoin. It prices the Fed chair’s effect on liquidity. And on liquidity, the most crypto-literate chair in history is also one of the most hawkish, which makes him, in the near term, a headwind rather than a tailwind.
The bull case hiding inside the hawk
There is a more optimistic reading of Warsh, and it is worth taking seriously because it could flip the entire picture later in 2026.
The key is a thesis Warsh has floated that analysts call “QT-for-cuts” or the “AI productivity” argument. The idea is that the productivity gains flowing from artificial intelligence allow the economy to grow without generating inflation, which in turn means the Fed could lower interest rates without overheating prices. If Warsh truly believes this, he could pair a shrinking balance sheet with actual rate cuts, easing the cost of capital while claiming to maintain discipline. JPMorgan, among others, expects Warsh to push for rate cuts after settling into the role, driven precisely by this AI-productivity logic.
If that scenario plays out, the calculus for crypto inverts. Rate cuts in the second half of 2026 would expand global liquidity, weaken the dollar, and send capital looking for higher-return assets, exactly the environment in which Bitcoin has historically run. In that world, Warsh becomes the tailwind the crypto-native case always hoped for: a chair who both respects Bitcoin and delivers the monetary easing that lifts it. Some analysts sketch Bitcoin targets back near and above $95,000 under this path.
The counterpoint, and the reason the market has not priced this in, is that easing requires a macroeconomic justification that does not currently exist. With inflation at 3.8 percent and oil prices elevated by Middle East tensions, cutting rates would look like capitulation to political pressure rather than sound policy, and Warsh has staked his credibility on independence. As one analyst put it, without a genuine reason to ease, any cut “will be met with skepticism and sold into.” The bull case is real, but it depends on inflation cooling enough to give Warsh cover to cut. Until that happens, the hawk is in control.
What to actually watch
For anyone trying to read how Warsh’s Fed will affect crypto, a handful of specific signals matter more than the daily price noise.
The first is his debut meeting. Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting on June 16-17, and it will be the market’s first real look at his approach in the chair, not as a nominee. The statement, the dot plot of rate projections, and his press conference tone will tell you whether he is leaning toward the AI-productivity easing thesis or digging in on inflation. This is the single most important near-term catalyst.
The second is the inflation data. Because the entire bull case depends on inflation cooling enough to justify cuts, each CPI print is now a crypto event. A series of softer inflation readings would give Warsh room to ease and could flip the liquidity picture in crypto’s favor. Continued hot prints lock the hawk in place. Watch the monthly CPI releases as direct inputs to the crypto outlook.
The third is rate-cut odds. The market’s pricing, currently around a 69 percent probability of zero cuts in 2026, is a live gauge of sentiment. If that number starts falling, meaning traders begin expecting cuts, it would signal the macro tide turning toward crypto. If it holds or rises, the pressure continues.
The fourth is the slower regulatory track, where Warsh may matter most positively. His tone on stablecoin regulation, bank crypto custody standards, and digital payment infrastructure will shape the institutional environment regardless of what Bitcoin’s price does month to month. His anti-CBDC stance is already a structural positive. These questions move on a longer timeline than rate decisions, but they are where a crypto-literate chair could leave the most durable mark.
The honest summary is that Warsh is two things at once, and which one dominates depends on inflation. He is a monetary hawk whose tight-money instincts pressure crypto’s price in the near term, and he is a crypto-literate, anti-CBDC pragmatist who could become a genuine tailwind if AI-driven productivity gains let him cut rates later in the year. The market, for now, is pricing the hawk.
The bull case is not gone. It is just waiting on the inflation data to give the most crypto-friendly Fed chair in history permission to act like it.
This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. The figures and analysis described reflect data available as of June 5, 2026. Always do your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, at the Federal Reserve, in Washington, D.C., U.S. July 29, 2026.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday followed through on expectations for no interest rate change, and Chairman Kevin Warsh offered little direction in his news conference. The meeting was notable for a surge in dissenting votes, while Warsh looked to provide some clarity on the board’s thought process.
Here are the five biggest takeaways from this week’s Fed actions:
- The “family fight” returns: Three voters on the Federal Open Market Committee voted against the hold, favoring instead a quarter percentage point hike. “I asked for a good family fight, and I got one. That’s the purpose. That’s the design feature,” Warsh said. “There was a lot more interaction between and among my colleagues. It was a real family fight.” All the “no” votes came from regional presidents: Lorie Logan of Dallas, Neil Kashkari of Minneapolis and Beth Hammack of Cleveland, none terribly surprising given previous statements they made.
- Another short and sweet statement: Other than detailing the “no” votes the statement was unchanged and still dramatically shorter than the Fed norm. “As before, the policy statement conveys just the facts. It’s steering clear of forecasting, a choice we consider especially prudent at these uncertain times,” Warsh said. “Uncertainty, however, does not mean a lack of clarity.”
- Dedication to slaying inflation, but …: Warsh again stated the Fed’s resolve to keep inflation under control, but braced markets and the public that it won’t be an easy fight nor will it end soon. “We’ve got no magic wand,” he said. “This isn’t something that we’re going to be able to carry out in days or weeks.”
- Revolt in the market: Despite the chairman’s tough talk on inflation, markets weren’t having it. Treasury yields at the long end of the curve soared, even as the policy-sensitive 2-year dipped. Translation: We think you’re going to keep short-term policy rates in check, and it’s going to create a ton of inflation later. The 30-year bond was the biggest gainer, roaring higher by 11.5 basis points to 5.211%, its highest yield since 2007 and seemingly undercutting Warsh’s inflation warrior credentials.
- No clues on September: Investors looking to get any further hints on whether the Fed will hike at the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting were largely out of luck. The statement offered no clues, either on forward guidance or even on the reaction function, and Warsh was at best cryptic on which way he will push. “So I take seriously that the pullback of forward guidance requires some transition. Reform isn’t easy, but our general judgment is going to help us make better decisions, and in so doing, satisfy our remit,” Warsh said.
They said it
“No doubt, in some of your commentaries today, you’ll talk about a divided Federal Reserve. Well, that’s not the feeling I felt the last couple of days and the couple days before. What I felt was a group of professionals, all the different perspectives, different views, different judgments, but eager to roll up their sleeves and have a family fight, and eager to reform the way in which the Fed does policy.” — Warsh, commenting on the tenor of the two meetings he’s chaired so far.
“We have long argued that September not July is when Warsh faces a binding credibility test/trap. If inflation and/or the war and energy run relatively hot over the summer he will have to hike in order to preserve his credibility. The key difference is that September is in a broad sense data-dependent while July was Warsh preferences dependent.” — Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI.
“[T]he Warsh Fed seems to be turning a blind eye to the message the bond market’s higher yields are sending about the inflation risks. Stay tuned. The reform-oriented Federal Reserve under Chair Warsh is looking like a bust. The bond market wants answers, but is getting nothing in return.” — Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds.
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said the Treasury market is signaling that the Federal Reserve will need to do more than talk tough if policymakers are serious about reaching their 2% inflation target.
“If you really want to get to 2%, I think you have to raise interest rates,” Gundlach said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” Wednesday after the Fed’s latest policy decision. “I think getting 2% is going to take a long time. We might not get there over the course of the next couple of years.”
The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, a decision that was widely expected. The move was not approved unanimously, however, with three policy members dissenting in favor of raising rates by a quarter percentage point.
Gundlach said the divergent moves across the Treasury curve following the announcement showed investors’ skepticism that the Fed will ultimately follow through.
“The two-year Treasury rallied today because it thinks the Fed is taking its time,” he said. “And the long bond yield went up significantly after the press conference, because the bond market vigilantes are saying, ‘If you really want us to believe your rhetoric, you’ve got to start acting.’”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 7 basis points to 4.681%, while the 30-year bond yield surged to 5.213% for its highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.244%.
The long end is generally tied to expectations for inflation and deficits, while the short end is closely related to interest-rate expectations in the shorter run.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stressed that the Fed will take necessary steps to meet its 2% inflation goal.
“I understand the desire for rolling forecasts and commentary from this committee, but for our part, we need to observe market reaction to developments direct and unfiltered,” Warsh said. “I want to stress, of course, that decisions by this committee matter a great deal, and where necessary and appropriate, we will not hesitate to act.”
A federal judge has rejected the CFTC’s request to stop Wisconsin from enforcing state gambling laws against federally regulated prediction market platforms.
Summary
- Judge William Griesbach denied the CFTC’s request for a preliminary injunction against Wisconsin.
- The court found sports event contracts may fall within Wisconsin’s commercial gambling laws.
- Wisconsin is pursuing cases against Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase.
- The CFTC plans to appeal the ruling and continue defending its claimed jurisdiction.
Wisconsin court rejects CFTC injunction
Judge William Griesbach of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Wisconsin denied the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s attempt to block Wisconsin from applying its gambling laws to prediction market operators.
The CFTC filed the federal case in April after Wisconsin sued Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase. Wisconsin alleges that sports event contracts offered through these platforms amount to unlicensed sports betting.
Griesbach found that the CFTC had not shown that it was likely to succeed on the merits, face irreparable harm, or benefit from the balance of equities required for a preliminary injunction.
The court also rejected requests from Kalshi and Crypto.com to intervene and seek preliminary relief in the federal dispute.
The CFTC argued that sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore fall under its exclusive federal authority. However, Griesbach concluded that the agency had not shown that sports contracts meet the law’s definition of swaps.
That finding alone was enough to deny the injunction, according to the court’s reasoning.
State gambling laws may cover sports contracts
Griesbach also rejected the CFTC’s argument that the Commodity Exchange Act prevents Wisconsin from applying its gambling statutes to CFTC-regulated platforms.
“Wisconsin’s gambling statutes do not conflict with federal commodities regulations and are not preempted by them,” the judge wrote.
The decision suggests that federal registration does not automatically shield a platform from state gambling enforcement when its contracts are tied to sporting outcomes.
Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul has described these contracts as sports bets presented as financial products.
“Thinly disguising unlawful conduct doesn’t make it lawful,” Kaul said when the state announced its lawsuits in April. “These companies’ alleged facilitation of sports betting in Wisconsin should be shut down.”
Legal analyst Daniel Wallach said the five state cases are likely to return to Wisconsin courts because the federal statute does not completely preempt state law. State judges could then consider injunctions preventing the platforms from offering sports contracts in Wisconsin.
CFTC faces pressure from 44 states
The ruling adds to a wider challenge to the CFTC’s attempt to establish national control over prediction markets.
Attorneys general from 44 states have urged the regulator to withdraw and rewrite proposed amendments to Rule 40.11. Their letter argues that the framework exceeds the CFTC’s authority under the Commodity Exchange Act and intrudes into gambling oversight traditionally handled by states.
Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson led the coalition, which submitted its objections as the public comment period closed. The states argued that Congress had not clearly authorized the CFTC to assume control over sports betting markets.
“States have long regulated gambling—including sports bets. The federal government has not,” the letter stated, according to the filing covered by crypto.news.
The dispute matters for US users because platform access may increasingly depend on where they live. If state laws apply alongside federal commodities rules, Kalshi, Polymarket, and similar operators could face different licensing requirements or restrictions across the country.
Conflicting rulings leave prediction markets uncertain
Wisconsin’s decision contrasts with a ruling issued in Minnesota earlier this week.
U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez temporarily blocked Minnesota’s new prediction market ban after finding that the CFTC, Kalshi, and Polymarket were likely to succeed in their federal preemption challenge. The injunction allows the platforms to continue operating in Minnesota while the case proceeds, according to the Associated Press.
The different outcomes leave the industry without a consistent national standard. Courts in Wisconsin and New York have favored state authority, while Minnesota’s ruling supports the CFTC’s claim that some event contracts fall under exclusive federal oversight.
A CFTC spokesperson said the agency was disappointed with the Wisconsin decision and would appeal. The next stage could determine whether Wisconsin’s lawsuits proceed in state court and whether the affected platforms must stop offering sports contracts there.
Dogecoin is trading near $0.07, up 0.3% over the past day after another quiet session. However, the muted move hides a weaker weekly trend. Billy Markus just reminded the market why people embraced DOGE in the first place. The full context offers another look at Dogecoin’s real-world utility.
Markus, posting as Shibetoshi Nakamoto on X, replied to a prompt from crypto retirement platform iTrustCapital about the most crypto thing he had done. He answered, “I bought a ride in the Vegas Loop with Dogecoin.” He added it was not that weekend, but it remained his favorite crypto experience. The comment referenced The Boring Company’s 2022 decision to accept DOGE through BitPay.
At launch, a single ride cost about $1.50, while a day pass cost $2.50. Elon Musk also backed the payment option, saying he would support Dogecoin wherever possible. Markus, still pointing to that purchase years later, says more about DOGE’s everyday appeal than many marketing campaigns.
Meanwhile, the post arrived during another difficult stretch for crypto markets. The Senate delayed further consideration of the Clarity Act before the August recess. At the same time, roughly $604 million in crypto positions were liquidated during a sharp market selloff. That combination kept pressure on risk assets, including Dogecoin.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
Can Dogecoin Price Break Back Above $0.10 Before the Clarity Act Deadline?
At $0.07064, DOGE is holding just above the $0.07 floor, but only by a slim margin. The session low reached about $0.0693, showing sellers are still pressing that support. A decisive break below $0.07 could expose the $0.064 to $0.068 range, where buyers previously stepped in.
Futures open interest has eased alongside the recent price decline, suggesting leveraged longs continue leaving the market. That points to more than a simple spot weakness. Still, price has not confirmed a breakdown, leaving the current support level in focus for the next move.
The previous reference to $0.40 VWAP support is no longer relevant at current prices. Instead, analysts are watching whether DOGE can reclaim $0.08 before discussing a stronger recovery. Until then, the market remains well below major resistance, and momentum still favors caution.
If the Clarity Act advances before the August recess, sentiment could improve. Fresh catalysts from Elon Musk or renewed payment integrations may also help. In that case, a move back above $0.08 could reopen the path toward $0.10.
The base case remains a consolidation between $0.07 and $0.08 as traders weigh regulation and macro risks. However, a daily close below $0.07 with rising volume would strengthen the bearish outlook. Until DOGE creates a clear distance from that level, the utility story remains stronger than the chart.
Trade Dogecoin on Bybit and Get a Chance to Win Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop
Maxi Doge Targets Early Mover Upside as DOGE Tests Key Levels
DOGE at $0.07 with a multi-billion-dollar market cap means the math on a 10x from here requires a full bull cycle and sustained retail inflows. Traders rotating capital for higher-asymmetry exposure are looking earlier in the lifecycle, which is exactly where Maxi Doge ($MAXI) sits.
The Clarity Act delay and broader risk-off pressure are squeezing established meme coins hardest; early-stage presales carry their own risks but aren’t subject to the same open-interest unwind dynamics.
$MAXI is a meme token built on Ethereum (ERC-20) positioned around a 240-lb canine mascot embodying 1000x leverage trading culture, think gym-bro meets trading desk, which lands well with the retail demographic that drives meme coin volume.
The presale has raised $4.8 million at a current price of $0.0002831, with dynamic staking APY live for holders. Features include holder-only trading competitions with leaderboard rewards and a Maxi Fund treasury earmarked for liquidity and partnerships. DYOR applies harder here than on listed assets.
Discover: The Best Token Presales
The post Dogecoin Co-Founder Billy Markus Revives Viral Vegas Loop Payment Memory appeared first on Cryptonews.
Microsoft delivered another blockbuster quarter, beating Wall Street expectations on revenue, earnings, and operating income as Azure cloud services and artificial intelligence continued to drive growth.
The stronger-than-expected results reinforced investor confidence that massive AI infrastructure investments are translating into accelerating revenue, a closely watched trend across technology and crypto markets alike.
Microsoft Crushes Q4 as Azure Growth Fuels AI Boom
The software giant reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $90.0 billion, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $87.7 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $4.74, well above the consensus estimate of $4.25, while operating income reached $40.6 billion, also topping forecasts.
Azure Emerges as the Standout Performer
The biggest surprise came from Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud business.
Revenue from the segment climbed 32% year over year to $39.3 billion, while Azure and other cloud services revenue surged 43%, comfortably ahead of prior company guidance that had pointed to growth closer to the high-30% range.
Microsoft Cloud generated $59.3 billion in quarterly revenue, up 27% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, commercial remaining performance obligations—a key measure of future contracted revenue—jumped 84% to $678 billion, highlighting sustained enterprise demand.
CEO Satya Nadella credited Microsoft’s AI strategy for the performance.
“We are advancing the frontier on the cost-to-outcome curve, ensuring every customer can turn tokens into business results,” Nadella said.
He also revealed that Azure generated more than $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time during fiscal 2026, while Microsoft 365 Copilot surpassed 30 million paid seats, demonstrating growing enterprise adoption of generative AI.
AI Spending Continues to Accelerate
Microsoft’s earnings also showed that its aggressive AI investments remain substantial.
Operating cash flow reached $55.4 billion during the quarter, while capital expenditures continued climbing as the company expanded data center capacity to support AI workloads.
Property and equipment spending reached nearly $35.8 billion during the quarter and almost $116 billion for the full fiscal year, underscoring Microsoft’s commitment to building AI infrastructure despite investor scrutiny over rising costs.
The company also returned $10.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter.
Why Crypto Investors Are Watching
Although Microsoft’s earnings are not directly tied to digital assets, the results carry important implications for crypto markets.
Bitcoin miners, AI-related blockchain projects, decentralized infrastructure networks, and tokenized computing platforms all benefit from continued enterprise investment in cloud infrastructure and artificial intelligence.
Strong demand for AI services also reinforces the broader investment narrative that has fueled capital flows into technology stocks and AI-linked crypto assets throughout 2026.
Microsoft’s results arrive as investors increasingly evaluate whether enormous AI infrastructure spending is generating sustainable returns. This quarter’s performance suggests demand continues to outpace supply, easing concerns that cloud providers may be overbuilding capacity.
What’s Next?
Attention now turns to Microsoft’s earnings conference call, where executives are expected to provide guidance on Azure growth, capital expenditures, operating margins, and fiscal 2027 expectations.
For investors across both traditional finance and crypto markets, Microsoft’s latest results offer another indication that enterprise AI adoption continues accelerating. Whether that momentum remains strong through the remainder of the year could influence sentiment across technology stocks, AI infrastructure providers, and digital asset sectors closely tied to the expanding artificial intelligence ecosystem.
The post Microsoft Crushes Q4 as Azure Growth Fuels AI Boom, How Should Traders Position? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
“BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory,” stated Fidelity in its Q3 Signals Report on Tuesday.
However, bitcoin is currently trading around 50% below its all-time high, which is still shallow compared to previous bear market bottoms.
October Eyed as Key Cycle Timeframe
The Yardstick metric compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to network hashrate via a normalized Z-score, with values below -1 standard deviation indicating undervaluation.
It essentially measures whether the asset is trading at a fair price relative to the “energy cost” of its security. Low or negative readings signal undervaluation or cheap bitcoin, while high readings signal overvaluation and expensive BTC. The metric has been firmly in the “undervalued” zone for 83% of the past 92 days.
Bitcoin miners have faced increasing pressure as prices have fallen, yet the total hash rate has only fallen around 22% from its peak, “highlighting miner resilience.”
“As a result, the Yardstick is currently hovering near historic lows. This suggests BTC may be trading at a substantial discount relative to the energy securing the network.”
Two signals we’re watching are approaching significant levels.
BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory.
Could the market be nearing a bottom?
Explore the data in our Q3 2026 Signals Report… pic.twitter.com/XsliCQG9Lx
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) July 28, 2026
This has likely happened because this cycle has lower price volatility than previous ones, and the mining industry has matured, with miners now managing energy costs more efficiently, said Fidelity.
Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms, which lasted almost 300 days in previous cycles.
“This bear market has experienced 203 days to date, suggesting October 2026 may represent a key timeframe for investors focused on cycle dynamics.”
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, said, “Bitcoin is approaching a historically important zone.” BTC’s long-term holder to short-term holder realized cap ratio has reached 3.9, approaching the level above 4 that preceded major price bottoms in previous cycles.
The metric shows realized capital increasingly concentrated among long-term holders with strong conviction, while short-term speculative participation remains weak, indicating an advanced accumulation phase.
“This does not guarantee that the exact bottom is already in, but it shows that the market is approaching a zone previously associated with major cycle bottoms.”
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin has retreated by 5.5% from its five-week high of $67,000 on July 21, falling to just under $63,000 on Tuesday. However, the asset has made a minor recovery to tap $64,000 three times over the past 12 hours, failing to break resistance there.
Swissblock reported on Wednesday that Bitcoin’s “reconstruction phase” has hit another obstacle as momentum has escaped its most extreme negative readings but has now stalled.
“The structure continues to stabilize, but buying participation has not expanded enough to carry price forward,” they said.
The post Fidelity Flags October and Bitcoin Bottom as ‘Yardstick’ Hits Historic Lows appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Organizations representing law enforcement officials in the US have reportedly proposed changes to a comprehensive cryptocurrency market structure bill under consideration in the Senate, with only days left until the chamber breaks for a month-long recess.
According to a Tuesday Politico report, the National Association of Assistant US Attorneys and the National District Attorneys Association sent a letter to the White House asking for changes on provisions regarding developers in the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. The changes proposed to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) within the CLARITY Act included that guidelines on developers not “create, expand, or modify criminal liability under Federal law.”
In response to reports on the proposed changes, White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said that the provisions were “not even close” to the Trump administration’s position, and implied that it was not the result of “productive negotiations.” Senator Catherine Cortez Masto has reportedly been pushing the White House to address the BRCA before any potential vote.
The provisions came as the CLARITY Act faces pushback from many Democrats over ethics rules in the bill regarding US President Donald Trump’s crypto investments, which netted him $1.4 billion in 2025. As of Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune had not scheduled a vote on the legislation before the chamber breaks for state work periods.
Related: Wyden urges Senate leaders to keep dev protections in crypto bill
The US Senate is scheduled to start state work periods from Aug. 7 to Sept. 14, giving lawmakers a limited window to pass crypto market structure before the recess and potential complications from the 2026 midterm elections in November. Thune told reporters last week that the Senate was unlikely to vote on the bill before the August recess.
”Even if CLARITY were brought up today, the procedural steps — cloture → amendment process → second cloture → up to 30 hours of debate — make finishing before recess extremely difficult without [unanimous consent] agreement to waive process, which is rare on contested bills,” said Anne Kelley, a partner at consulting firm Mercury Strategies, in a Monday X post.
CLARITY could shift crypto authority to US commodities regulator
One of the key points of the crypto market structure bill would be to change the regulatory purview over digital asset largely from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which currently has fewer tools and resources to address enforcement and oversight issues. Both agencies are also currently understaffed at the leadership level, with only one CFTC chair and three SEC commissioners.
Magazine: Here’s why the CLARITY Act’s ethics deal may be so hard to reach
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An ARK Invest analyst says the cryptocurrency industry is entering what he describes as its biggest consolidation phase yet, with revenue increasingly concentrated among a handful of dominant protocols.
In a Wednesday post on X, Lorenzo Valente, a research associate at ARK Invest, said investors have become increasingly selective, making it harder for crypto projects and exchanges without strong product-market fit to attract capital. As weaker projects struggle or shut down, revenue is becoming concentrated among a small number of dominant protocols, he said.
As evidence, Valente said perpetual futures exchange Hyperliquid and memecoin launchpad Pump.fun account for roughly 67% of total crypto application revenue. Including synthetic dollar protocol Ethena raises the top three’s combined share to nearly 80%, highlighting what he described as record-high revenue concentration across the sector.
Source: Lorenzo Valente
Valente added that he expects the trend to accelerate in the coming months, leading to more mergers and acquisitions, Chapter 11 bankruptcies, project shutdowns and acqui-hires. Despite the shakeout, he described the consolidation as “extremely bullish” for the crypto industry.
Related: ARK pushes back against a16z’s ‘TradFi wants blockchain, not DeFi’ claim
Exchange closures add to consolidation narrative
The comments come as several crypto exchanges have announced plans to wind down operations in recent days, underscoring mounting pressures across parts of the industry.
Last week, BitMEX announced it would shut down its exchange in September after a strategic review by owner HDR Global Trading. The exchange had recently accelerated the delisting of trading pairs and derivative contracts, citing insufficient trading interest.
Days later, BitMart announced it would end trading services on Aug. 26 before winding down operations entirely in January 2027. The exchange said the decision followed a review of its operating conditions, market environment and future strategic direction.
Consolidation has also come through acquisitions. Earlier this month, Bybit launched a locally operated exchange in Indonesia after acquiring a majority stake in local digital asset firm NOBI, expanding its presence in one of Asia’s largest crypto markets.
Source: BitMEX
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President Donald Trump threatened a forceful response after Iran fired missiles at U.S. forces in Jordan, ending a brief pause in fighting and sending oil prices sharply higher.
Summary
- Trump vowed to hit Iran “very hard” after missiles targeted American forces in Jordan.
- Brent crude jumped nearly 8% as traders priced in renewed risks to Middle East supplies.
- The Dow fell 2.14%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also closed sharply lower.
- Bitcoin briefly recovered to $64,435 after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged.
Trump vows retaliation after Iran missile attack
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards fired several ballistic missiles at a U.S. air base and military center in Jordan. U.S. officials said American forces intercepted the missiles, with no immediate reports of casualties.
Trump promised retaliation during comments at the White House.
“So it’s our turn,” Trump said. “We’re going to hit them very hard.”
Trump left open the possibility of a future agreement with Tehran but gave no details about the timing or scale of a U.S. response. He also said he had been briefed about a drone strike on a U.S.-owned gas storage tanker at Egypt’s Damietta port.
American and Saudi forces separately carried out joint strikes against Iran-backed groups in Iraq. The attacks killed at least 20 members of the Popular Mobilization Forces, according to the group.
Saudi Arabia’s direct involvement marks a further expansion of the conflict. Riyadh had previously tried to limit its military role while defending oil facilities and shipping routes from attacks linked to Tehran-backed groups.
Oil jumps as shipping risks return
Oil prices surged as traders reassessed the chances of prolonged disruption across the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Brent crude futures settled $6.65, or 7.91%, higher at $90.74 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 6.56% to $84.46. The rally accelerated after Trump promised further action against Iran.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, while Houthi militants continued to threaten vessels near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Only five commodity ships passed through Bab el-Mandeb on Wednesday, down from 39 on Tuesday.
Falling U.S. inventories added to the price pressure. Government data showed crude stockpiles declined by 7.2 million barrels to 404.5 million, their lowest level since 2018.
US Treasury targets Iran-linked crypto payments
Washington also expanded its financial campaign against Tehran. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned two companies accused of operating an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-backed maritime insurance scheme.
Treasury officials said the firms forced commercial vessels to buy mandatory insurance before passing through the Strait of Hormuz. One of the sanctioned companies, HormuzSafe Marine Services Authority, allegedly accepted Bitcoin and other digital assets to bypass Western sanctions.
“The United States will not allow Iran to hold global commerce hostage or use international shipping to finance the IRGC’s terrorism, aggression, and repression,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.
The action also covered vessels accused of transporting Iranian crude and petrochemical products. Treasury has sanctioned more than 100 vessels linked to Iran’s shadow fleet since the start of 2026.
For U.S. crypto businesses, the action raises sanctions-compliance risks around wallets or payments tied to Iranian shipping operations.
Bitcoin recovers as US stocks close lower
Wall Street ended the session sharply lower as rising oil prices, renewed fighting and concerns about artificial intelligence spending weighed on risk appetite.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.14%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.50%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.68%, extending its decline from its June record.
Bitcoin initially fell below $64,000 following reports of the Iranian attack. It later recovered to about $64,435 after the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Three of the 12 policymakers voted for a quarter-point increase.
Markets will now focus on Trump’s response, access through the Strait of Hormuz, and whether higher energy prices push the Fed toward a September rate increase. Further military action could restore selling pressure across stocks and crypto while keeping oil prices elevated.
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