Bitcoin is pulling back from the upper boundary of its ascending channel on Powell’s final FOMC day, with a daily MACD bearish crossover now confirmed and price retreating toward key SMA support. This article breaks down what the daily chart signals, where price could head next, and why the Fed transition to incoming Chair Kevin Warsh adds a fresh layer of uncertainty.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $75,834 on April 29, down 0.67% on the day, after touching a high of $77,904 before sellers reasserted control heading into the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The pullback comes as Jerome Powell delivers his final FOMC press conference before his term ends on May 15, and as the daily MACD histogram flips negative for the first time in several weeks, signaling that the momentum driving April’s 21% recovery is beginning to wane.

Daily MACD bearish crossover at descending channel resistance

The daily chart shows Bitcoin navigating two overlapping structures. The ascending channel from the February lows near $59,000, defined by two parallel blue trendlines, remains intact and has framed the entire recovery through April. However, a broader descending channel formed by two red trendlines running from the February highs near $85,000 is capping the macro recovery, with the SMA 200 at $84,423 sitting inside that upper boundary as major overhead resistance.

Price tested the upper region of the ascending channel near $78,000 on April 28, then retreated sharply, producing the current session’s high of $77,904 before sliding to $75,834 at the time of writing. The critical technical development on today’s daily chart is the MACD. The MACD line reads at 1,650.21, the signal line at 1,815.33, and the histogram at -165.13, confirming a bearish crossover on the daily timeframe. Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe said on X that Bitcoin pullbacks ahead of and during FOMC events are typical, but cautioned that a close below $73,000 would signal a deeper correction rather than a routine reset.

Key levels: support, resistance, and price targets

The immediate support is the SMA 20 at $75,685, which price is currently pressing. A daily close below it removes the first dynamic buffer and brings the SMA 50 at $72,082 and the SMA 100 at $72,659 into focus, both of which converge in a tight cluster near the $72,000 to $73,000 zone that analysts identify as the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A confirmed close below $72,000 would break the ascending channel structure and open a retest of the $65,000 to $68,000 range, where heavy on-chain accumulation occurred throughout the Iran-driven correction in Q1 2026.

On the upside, $80,000 remains the primary resistance and the bull-case target that would invalidate the current bearish MACD reading. Above it, the SMA 200 at $84,423 and the upper boundary of the descending red channel represent the macro level bulls must clear for a confirmed structural trend reversal. A confirmed daily close above $80,000 on volume would shift the near-term bias back toward neutral.

ETF flows and derivatives context

According to data tracked by crypto.news, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $89.68 million in net outflows on April 28, breaking an eight-day inflow streak that had totalled $2.43 billion. Bitcoin fell after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings within 48 hours of the decision, per data published by Phemex, with the pattern driven by traders unwinding pre-event long positioning rather than by the rate decision itself. The current setup, where BTC entered the FOMC on a 21% April rally with the Fear and Greed Index near 40, closely mirrors prior setups that produced the sharpest post-meeting declines.

Powell’s exit and the Warsh uncertainty

This meeting carries an additional layer of uncertainty beyond the rate decision. Powell’s tenure ends May 15, with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh expected to preside over the June 16 to 17 FOMC meeting as his first. As crypto.news reported, institutional flows have proven sensitive to shifts in Fed communication tone throughout 2026, with oil prices near $105 per barrel adding further pressure on rate-cut expectations. Warsh’s hawkish reputation relative to Powell could shift the June dot plot in a direction that tightens the liquidity outlook for risk assets, making the 48-hour post-FOMC window on April 30 and May 1 the critical test for whether this pullback stabilises or extends toward $72,000.

If Bitcoin holds the SMA 20 at $75,685 and reclaims $77,500 on a daily close, the ascending channel remains intact and the bearish MACD crossover may prove to be a temporary signal. A close below $72,082 confirms a deeper correction is underway.

U.S. District Judge Denise Cote on April 28 signed off on a $10 million settlement between the Federal Trade Commission and Alex Mashinsky, the founder of collapsed crypto lender Celsius Network, according to court documents.

The settlement permanently bans Mashinsky from promoting or operating any product or service involving the deposit, exchange, investment, or withdrawal of “assets” broadly, which could bar him from financial services beyond crypto.

The stipulated order enters a $4.72 billion monetary judgment against Mashinsky, though his actual cash payment to the FTC is capped at $10 million. That obligation will be considered satisfied if Mashinsky pays an equivalent amount to the Department of Justice under a separate forfeiture order tied to his criminal case, the court filing notes.

The order also permanently enjoins Mashinsky from misrepresenting any product or service he promotes.

The civil settlement follows Mashinsky’s sentencing last May, when a federal judge ordered him to serve 12 years in prison for fraud and market manipulation — specifically for artificially inflating the price of Celsius’s CEL token while secretly selling his own holdings.

Celsius froze customer withdrawals in June 2022, cratering crypto markets and trapping funds belonging to 1.7 million users before the platform filed for bankruptcy the following month, as The Defiant reported. A former partner had already alleged in 2022 that Celsius was operating a Ponzi scheme, with customer funds used to manipulate CEL’s price — accusations that ultimately proved accurate.

The $4.72 billion judgment reflects the full scope of harm to consumers, even if most of it remains uncollectable.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its two-day decline on Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes confirmed the Fed’s decision to hold “the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-½ to 3-¾ percent.” 

While the Fed maintains its goal of achieving “maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run,” the FOMC minutes cited the “developments in the Middle East” as factors fueling an environment of “uncertainty” and the Fed stressed its desire to maintain optionality as it evaluates the “risks to both sides of its dual mandate.” 

FOMC minutes with new statements in red. Source: CNBC

The Fed’s hold on rates aligned with market expectations, but Bitcoin remained fragile throughout Chairman Powell’s presser.

Hyblock CEO Shubh Varma described the price action as “the usual sell the news reaction after the FOMC,” but also noted that BTC “quickly recovered to pre-announcement levels within hours, showing strong underlying conviction.” 

Adding data to back his market view, Varma said, 

“The global bid ask ratio spiked to 0.3 (one of the highest readings), while open interest fell on the price drop. This is classic post-FOMC position squaring and stop-hunt behavior rather than conviction selling.”

BTC/USDT global bid ask ratio. Source: Hyblock

Will support turn back into resistance?

After the FOMC minutes were published, BTC dropped to an intra-day low of $74,937, slightly below the 20-day simple moving average ($75,664) that some traders identified as critical to confirming BTC’s support-resistance flip. 

As reported on Monday by Cointelegraph, following the break above the channel resistance on the daily chart, BTC required consecutive daily candle closes above the trendline, followed by a lower support restest in the $76,500 to $75,500 range. 

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

While all the above have happened, failure to recapture the 20-MA and close above the trendline resistance could be interpreted as a loss of momentum within the bull trend, opening the path for Bitcoin to test the downside boundary of the near-4-month-old channel. 

Related: Bitcoin falls as traders cut risk ahead of FOMC: Will Tradfi, spot ETF volumes bolster $70K support?

Prior to the Chairman Powell’s presser, Glassnode analysts noticed that Bitcoin traders were adding bearish leverage, citing rising open interest after Tuesday’s rally to $79,000, funding remaining neutral and a divergence between the spot and futures market cumulative volume delta (CVD). 

Bitcoin traders turn bearish ahead of FOMC minutes. Source: Glassnode / X

Additional analysis from Glassnode’s The Week Onchain report depicted Bitcoin’s price action as “trapped below market mean,” where $65,000 to $70,000 act as support, but weak demand prevents the formation of sustainable rallies. 

According to the report, Bitcoin failed to overcome its True Market Mean at $79,000 and a surge in short-term holders’ profit taking, along with margin futures flipping net short, has sapped away Bitcoin’s shorter-term bullish momentum. 

BTC entity-adjusted short-term holder realized profit. Source: Glassnode

While these factors increase Bitcoin’s sensitivity to a sharper downside move, the analysts said institutional flows into the spot BTC ETFs and rising CME open interest have helped to build a “dense accumulation cluster between $65K and $70K.” 

CME open interest, US spot ETF AUM position change. Source: Glassnode

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Gibraltar is moving to codify the use of tokenized fund shares within its financial framework, authorizing certain regulated funds to issue shares on distributed ledger technology (DLT) while preserving investor rights. The Protected Cell Companies (Amendment) Bill 2026 would recognize a share token holder as a shareholder with the same rights and obligations as holders of traditional cell shares, linking ownership to asset pools within protected cell companies.

According to Cointelegraph, the proposal would require approval from the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission and targets protected cell companies operating as experienced investor funds. It contemplates blockchain-based share registers for recording ownership, with tokenized shares legally equivalent to conventional share certificates.

Source: Gibraltarlaws.gov.gi

The framework imposes strict custody and transfer controls, restricting access to verified investors and allow-listed wallet addresses, while mandating disclosures on technology risks, cybersecurity, and recovery procedures. Companies would retain control over the underlying infrastructure, keeping the system within a regulated environment rather than an open, permissionless market.

Under the proposal, tokenized shares could be issued and transferred via smart contracts and cryptographic signatures, with blockchain records recognized as valid instruments for ownership, transfer, and recordkeeping under existing company law. The bill must advance through Gibraltar’s legislative process before it can take effect.

Related developments in the digital-asset regulation space have been highlighted by industry coverage, underscoring a broader shift toward integrating tokenized assets into regulated markets.

Source: Gibraltarlaws.gov.gi

Key takeaways

• The Protected Cell Companies (Amendment) Bill 2026 would permit tokenized fund shares to be issued on distributed ledger technology, with token holders treated as shareholders under existing rights and obligations.
• Approval from the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission is required, and the measure targets PCCs operating as experienced investor funds.
• Ownership records would be maintained on blockchain-based share registers, with tokenized shares legally equivalent to traditional share certificates.
• Custody and transfer rules would restrict activity to verified investors and allow-listed wallet addresses, alongside mandatory disclosures on technology risk, cybersecurity, and recovery procedures.

Gibraltar’s tokenization framework in context

The bill envisions tokenized shares that are issued and transferred using smart contracts and cryptographic signatures, with blockchain records recognized as valid under current company law. By keeping the underlying infrastructure within a regulated environment, the approach aims to balance innovation with supervisory oversight and investor protection. The measure would not create a permissionless market; rather, it anchors tokenized equity in a governance and custody framework that aligns with established fiduciary and regulatory norms.

As the legislative process advances, the emphasis on verified investor access and technology risk disclosures points to heightened KYC/AML compliance requirements for PCCs leveraging tokenized instruments. The Gibraltar FSC’s involvement signals a tailored, risk-based approach to tokenized fund governance that could influence similar regimes in other jurisdictions contemplating regulated token markets.

Global momentum: tokenized assets in regulated markets

Gibraltar’s contemplated framework sits within a growing global trend of tokenized assets moving from pilot programs to regulated market infrastructure. Several jurisdictions have advanced tokenized securities under robust legal and supervisory regimes:

• Switzerland: The regulator (FINMA) approved a crypto fund in 2021 for qualified investors and, in 2025, licensed its first distributed ledger technology trading facility to enable tokenized securities to be traded and settled on regulated infrastructure.
• Singapore: Project Guardian, initiated in 2022, tested tokenized assets in wholesale markets as part of a broader exploration of DLT-enabled capital markets.
• Hong Kong: Tokenized government bonds have been issued and expanded since 2023, reflecting active public-sector participation in tokenized finance.
• Global settlement infrastructure: In 2024, the World Bank issued a Swiss franc digital bond on Switzerland’s SIX Digital Exchange with settlement conducted via central bank digital currency, illustrating central-bank–aligned settlement for tokenized debt instruments.
• Canada: In March, a pilot successfully issued and settled its first tokenized bond on distributed ledger infrastructure, marking a notable cross-border development in tokenized sovereign-like debt instruments.

These cases collectively illustrate a shift toward regulated environments for tokenized securities and bonds, combining governance frameworks, custody controls, and supervisory oversight to mitigate risk while expanding access to digital-asset markets. Industry observers have highlighted the importance of aligning tokenized offerings with existing corporate and securities law, AML/KYC standards, and cross-border regulatory harmonization. The European Union’s MiCA framework and parallel U.S. regulatory conversations continue to shape how tokenized assets are treated across jurisdictions, with particular emphasis on licensing, disclosure, and custody arrangements intended to preserve financial stability and investor protection.

In the broader policy context, the ongoing evolution of tokenized asset markets is being tracked for potential implications on licensing regimes, banking integration, and cross-border settlement infrastructure. As Gibraltar demonstrates, regulators appear inclined to integrate tokenized instruments within familiar legal constructs, rather than create entirely new regimes for each innovation, thereby facilitating compliance, audits, and enforcement activities for market participants.

Closing perspective: As tokenization moves deeper into regulated markets, ongoing oversight and international coordination will be critical to address unresolved issues in custody, cyber risk, and cross-border transfer of tokenized assets.

TLDR:

• Five XRP spot ETFs launched in the US, locking 769M tokens with zero net outflow days in month one.
  
• Goldman Sachs holds $153.8M in XRP ETFs, making it the top institutional holder across four funds.
  
• XRPL daily transactions hit 3 million on March 15, tripling from mid-2025 averages across key use cases.
  
• Ripple’s $50B private valuation and $500M funding round drew top Wall Street and crypto-native firms.

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XRP has attracted notable institutional attention in 2026, with five spot ETFs now trading in the United States. Cumulative inflows reached $1.50 billion by early March.

The funds locked over 769 million XRP tokens across combined custody arrangements. JPMorgan forecasts first-year inflows between $4 billion and $8.4 billion. Despite these developments, XRP trades around $1.36, well below its July 2025 high of $3.65.

Institutional Adoption Drives ETF Growth

Goldman Sachs disclosed a $153.8 million spot XRP ETF position in its Q4 2025 13F filing. This makes Goldman the single largest known institutional holder of XRP ETFs.

The allocation spans Bitwise, Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ, Grayscale’s GXRP, and 21Shares’ TOXR. Together, these holdings account for roughly 73% of the top 30 institutional holdings combined.

Ripple entered 2026 at a $50 billion private valuation. This places it among the ten most valuable private companies globally.

It also stands as the only blockchain-focused firm in that group. The company holds more than 75 regulatory licenses worldwide and has logged over $95 billion in cumulative transaction volume.

A $500 million strategic funding round closed in November, drawing major names from traditional finance. Citadel Securities, Fortress, Pantera, Galaxy Digital, Brevan Howard, and Marshall Wace all participated.

On the same day, Ripple announced a partnership with Mastercard and Gemini. The collaboration focuses on stablecoin-powered credit card payments.

As noted by BSCNews, the registered zero net outflow days in the ETFs’ first month of trading. This points to sustained demand from institutional buyers. The consistency of inflows sets XRP apart from other digital assets in early 2026.

XRPL Network Activity and Technical Development

Daily transactions on the XRP Ledger reached 3 million on March 15. That figure represents a threefold increase from mid-2025 averages.

AMM pool activity, tokenized assets, and RLUSD-denominated settlement flows drove the growth. The ledger has now processed more than 4 billion transactions since inception.

Real-world asset tokenization on XRPL has grown to over $474 million. The represented value is approaching $1.5 billion.

This growth reflects broader adoption of the ledger for non-speculative financial use cases. It also positions XRPL as a settlement layer for institutional-grade transactions.

On the technical side, RippleX shipped a node stability patch on March 13. An AI-driven security overhaul followed on March 26.

A four-phase quantum-resistance roadmap targeting 2028 is also underway, with Phase 2 in progress. Lending Protocol and Single Asset Vaults are currently under amendment voting.

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick has forecast XRP reaching $8 in 2026. He cited ETF flows and regulatory clarity from the CLARITY Act as key drivers.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has predicted XRP capturing 14% of SWIFT volume within five years. Price performance, however, remains the one area yet to reflect the broader momentum.

Prediction markets are emerging as one of the most active on-chain applications, driven by a surge in retail participation even as broader crypto markets stay muted. A joint report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket shows March trading volumes in on-chain prediction markets at $25.7 billion, with more than 80% of users categorized as retail—defined as those trading less than $10,000.

These figures align with data from Dune Analytics, which pegged March trading volume at $23.7 billion, up from $1.9 billion a year earlier. More telling than the raw totals is a shift in user behavior: instead of chasing single, high-profile events, traders are returning more frequently and crossing multiple categories. Average active days per user nearly quadrupled in Q1, rising from 2.5 to 9.9, suggesting deeper and more consistent participation.

Key takeaways

• March on-chain prediction market volume reached $25.7 billion, with retail users comprising over 80% of participants.
• Dune Analytics tracks March volume at $23.7 billion, marking a sharp year-over-year increase from $1.9 billion.
• User engagement is increasing: average active days per user rose from 2.5 to 9.9 in the first quarter.
• Sports markets led activity at $10.1 billion in the quarter, while political markets accounted for about $5 billion.
• Industry projections point to rapid growth, with potential volumes of $240 billion annually in 2024 and longer-term upside toward trillions, supported by capital inflows to major platforms.

From episodic bets to a continuous forecast engine

The new findings depict prediction markets evolving beyond event-driven bets into an ongoing system for tracking real-world developments. This transition appears tightly correlated with how crypto wallets serve as primary access points for users, lowering barriers to entry and enabling broader participation across multiple market segments.

Sports betting, in particular, has become a cornerstone of activity. With a steady stream of global events, the sports category generated $10.1 billion in trading volume for the quarter. Political markets also sustained momentum, contributing $5 billion in the same period. The data imply a demand not just for gambling-style bets but for continuous hedging and information discovery tied to real-world outcomes.

Platform dynamics and access: Polygon, wallets, and the centralized-versus-decentralized debate

Among the leading platforms, Polymarket operates directly on-chain via the Polygon network, enabling users to place bets on real-world outcomes without intermediaries. This on-chain approach contrasts with centralized marketplaces such as Kalshi, highlighting a broader spectrum of architectures shaping the space. Polymarket’s Polygon-based model emphasizes user sovereignty and on-chain settlement, aligning with growing demand for transparent, auditable markets.

The sector’s governance and integrity frameworks have also come into sharper focus. Polymarket has recently updated its governance framework to address risks related to insider trading and market manipulation, reflecting a push toward stronger market integrity as the community scales. Regulatory dynamics, particularly growing acceptance from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, have contributed to this momentum and are expected to influence how other platforms approach compliance and risk controls.

Regulatory momentum, capital inflows, and the race to scale

Regulatory clarity appears to be a meaningful tailwind for on-chain prediction markets. As authorities increasingly engage with the sector, platforms are pursuing stronger governance and transparency measures to align with potential safeguards around market integrity. In parallel, major players in the space have attracted substantial investment. Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the sector’s largest platforms, are reportedly raising significant capital at valuations exceeding $20 billion, underscoring confidence in the long-run viability of prediction markets as a crypto-native financial infrastructure.

The growth narrative is supported by projections from industry observers, who anticipate volumes reaching hundreds of billions annually in the near term. If the trajectory continues, prediction markets could become a persistent engine for on-chain activity, with wallets serving as the primary gateways for a broad user base that engages across sports, politics, economics, and beyond.

Implications for traders, builders, and the broader market

The reported shift toward higher-frequency participation has several practical implications. For traders, the expanding array of accessible, on-chain markets could improve liquidity and price discovery across more event categories. For developers and platform builders, the emphasis on governance and anti-manipulation mechanisms will shape product design, risk controls, and incentive structures as the market matures.

For investors, the growing demand for on-chain prediction markets may reflect a broader appetite for crypto-native information markets that combine financial payoff with real-world data. The sustained activity in sports and political markets suggests that the ecosystem is expanding beyond novelty use cases, potentially attracting new cohorts of users who perceive these markets as information tools as well as speculative venues.

Looking ahead, observers will be watching regulatory developments, platform governance enhancements, and continued evidence of user growth across more geographies and event types. The sector’s next milestones could include broader regulatory clarity, new funding rounds for leading platforms, and the emergence of additional use cases that leverage the on-chain trust model to deliver real-world forecasting insights.

Sources: Bitget Wallet and Polymarket joint report; Dune Analytics data on March trading volumes; platform governance updates and market coverage on Polymarket and Kalshi; regulatory context from the U.S. CFTC.

Hyperliquid has published the fee structure for its outcome tokens, the assets that underpin prediction market-style trading on the platform, in a sign that a mainnet launch is getting closer.

Prediction markets have become one of crypto’s fastest-growing areas, with trading volume surging more than 300% in 2025 to $63.5 billion, and Hyperliquid is building the infrastructure to compete with incumbents such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

The key detail in the structure is that opening a position costs nothing. Fees only apply when closing or settling a trade. The document outlines six scenarios covering minting, trading, burning and settlement.

Traders using Hyperliquid’s “aligned quote tokens” get better rates, with taker fees 20% lower and maker rebates 50% higher than standard. The full fee formula has been published for developers.

The broader significance is that HIP-4, the upgrade introducing outcome tokens, would let users trade binary contracts on real-world events alongside Hyperliquid’s existing perpetuals and spot positions in a single account as it looks to compete with platforms like Polymarket, which said earlier this week that perpetual trading is “coming soon.”

Hyperliquid’s previous upgrade, HIP-3, which opened permissionless perpetuals to developers, has grown to more than 35% of all platform trading volume since its introduction in October 2025.

Outcome tokens are currently on testnet only. No mainnet date has been confirmed.