Data from Glassnode shows loss-taking now outweighs profits, a shift rarely seen outside deep bear phases.

Bitcoin’s on-chain data has flashed a signal that has historically come before prolonged bear market conditions, with the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio confirming a regime shift toward loss-dominant selling.

The move suggests that liquidity is evaporating from the market, forcing investors to realize losses rather than book profits, a dynamic last seen during the deepest crypto winter periods of 2018 and 2022.

Key Metric Flips Below 1 Signaling Capitulation Risk

According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the 90-day simple moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has officially fallen below 1. The metric, which compares the total value of BTC sold at a profit versus those sold at a loss, indicates that loss-taking now outweighs profit-taking across the network.

“This confirms a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime,” Glassnode analysts noted in a February 24 update on X.

The firm highlighted that historically, breaks below this threshold have persisted for six months or more before reclaiming the 1 level, a recovery that typically signals a “constructive return of liquidity to the market.”

The reading represents the culmination of a trend that began in early February, when the ratio was hovering near 1.5, and late January, when it stood around 1.32.

Furthermore, the current on-chain structure shows confluence with previous bear market bottoms. CryptoQuant contributor _OnChain observed that indicators tied to whale activity, particularly Unspent Profitability Ratios (UPR) for various holder cohorts, have reached levels similar to May-June 2022, a period that preceded significant downside before the ultimate bottom formed later that year.

Market Context and Historical Parallels

The current sell-side pressure follows a dramatic cooldown in profit-taking that occurred in December 2025. Glassnode’s earlier data showed that 7-day average realized profits crashed from over $1 billion in Q4 2025 to just $183.8 million by December, which temporarily allowed Bitcoin to stabilize and rally above $96,000 in early January.

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However, that stabilization proved short-lived as macroeconomic headwinds intensified, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $63,200 at the time of writing, down 3.6% in 24 hours and almost 29% over the past month. The asset is also nearly 50% below its all-time high reached in October 2025.

Analysts have attributed the continued weakness to a combination of macro factors rather than a structural breakdown in Bitcoin’s fundamentals. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcements, including a proposed increase on taxes on global imports, have rattled risk assets across traditional and crypto markets.

Despite the bearish signals, some analysts maintain that Bitcoin’s long-term cycle remains intact. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently framed current volatility as a necessary “teenage state” of monetary evolution, arguing that maturing assets must pass through speculative gradients before achieving institutional stability.

However, chartist Ali Martinez warned that a three-day “death cross” could be confirmed in late February, which foreshadowed final downside moves in 2014, 2018, and 2022, historically leading to additional declines of 30% to 50%.

Ethereum remains under sustained downside pressure after the February liquidation cascade, with the price now stabilizing around the mid-$1,800s.

The broader structure still reflects a cyclical correction rather than a completed bottom, but short-term momentum has cooled, and the market is attempting to build a base above a major higher-timeframe demand region.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, ETH trades within a well-defined descending channel, with the price currently hugging the lower half of the structure near $1,800–$1,850. The breakdown from the $2,300–$2,400 support block and the rejection well below the declining 100-day and 200-day moving averages confirm a bearish medium-term trend, while the daily RSI remains depressed near oversold territory, consistent with a strongly extended move.

The immediate technical focus is the horizontal demand band around $1,750–$1,800, and sustained consolidation above this area could allow a mean-reversion bounce toward the $2,000–$2,200 zone, whereas a decisive loss of it would open the door toward deeper supports closer to $1,500–$1,600 and the lower boundary of the channel.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, the prior ascending support line originating from the early-February low has been broken, and the asset is now consolidating just below that trendline inside the same $1,750–$1,850 demand zone. Short-term momentum is weak but no longer accelerating lower, with the RSI flattening after an oversold print, which often precedes either a sideways consolidation or a corrective rebound.

As long as the market holds above the recent intraday lows around the $1,750 mark, the structure allows for a retracement back toward $1,900–$1,950, where the former range floor and short-term moving averages converge. Failure to defend the $1,780 area would likely trigger another round of selling toward the next liquidity pocket below $1,700.

On-Chain Analysis

Perpetual futures positioning reflects a markedly defensive stance: funding rates across major exchanges have flipped sharply negative and remain below zero after the recent decline, indicating that short positions are paying longs and that the derivatives market is skewed toward bearish exposure.

This shift follows a prolonged period of mostly positive funding during the prior uptrend, suggesting that a large portion of the current move has been driven by aggressive shorting and long liquidations rather than organic spot selling alone.

While persistent negative funding can reinforce downside pressure if spot demand stays weak, in combination with an oversold technical backdrop, it also creates the preconditions for a short squeeze should price stabilize and buyers step in around the present support cluster.

BTC swung violently around tariff headlines as ‘tariffs’ mentions spiked across crypto social media.

Mentions of “tariffs” have spiked across cryptocurrency social media platforms following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 15% global tariff on imports, according to data from market intelligence firm Santiment.

The surge in social media discussion mirrors previous episodes that coincided with significant price movements in Bitcoin markets, Santiment reported. Over the past year, three separate tariff announcements generated large increases in discourse across platforms including X, Reddit, and Telegram, each occurring near notable market shifts.

In April 2025, Trump introduced country-specific tariffs, including a 60% tariff on China and tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% targeting Mexico, the European Union, Japan, and India. Social media engagement around tariffs increased sharply as retail traders reacted to the policy announcement, according to Santiment. The spike in retail-driven discourse coincided with heightened volatility across cryptocurrency markets, the firm stated. That period aligned with a market bottoming process, with prices later stabilizing and recovering.

Five days after Bitcoin reached an all-time high, Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports. Social media volume spiked again, though the tariff was rescinded two days later. That period marked a peak before Bitcoin entered a four-month decline, according to market data.

The most recent announcement of a 15% global tariff follows a Supreme Court ruling declaring tariffs illegal, adding uncertainty to markets. Social media discussion surrounding tariffs has surged again, coinciding with renewed Bitcoin selloffs, Santiment data showed.

The geopolitical backdrop includes a legal dispute between federal authority and presidential power, extending uncertainty beyond economic policy into questions of institutional stability, analysts noted.

Santiment’s data indicates that large retail discourse spikes often coincide with emotionally charged phases in market cycles. The pattern observed over the past year shows extreme retail activity has aligned with local market bottoms, while aggressive policy announcements near price peaks have preceded extended corrections.

Bitcoin’s response to the current tariff situation will depend on broader liquidity conditions and macroeconomic stability, market observers stated. Until clarity emerges around policy enforcement and legal resolution, volatility is expected to remain elevated, according to market analysts.

Cipher Digital (CIFR) shares fell about 5% in premarket trading after the company reported fourth-quarter results that missed Wall Street expectations and highlighted its shift away from bitcoin BTC$62,824.67 mining and toward high-performance computing (HPC) data centers.

The company, formerly known as Cipher Mining, reported fourth-quarter revenue of $60 million, below analyst estimates of $84.4 million. Adjusted earnings per share came in at a loss of $0.14, wider than the forecast loss of $0.06. Cipher posted an adjusted net loss of $55 million for the quarter.

Management pointed to 2025 as a transformative year as it pivots away from bitcoin mining and toward long-term HPC infrastructure. During the quarter, Cipher secured 600 megawatts of contracted capacity, including a 15-year, 300 megawatt (MW) lease with Amazon Web Services and a 10-year, 300 MW lease with Fluidstack and Google.

The company also raised $3.73 billion through three senior secured bond offerings to finance construction at its Barber Lake and Black Pearl data center projects, both of which remain on schedule.

Cipher divested its 49% stakes in three mining joint ventures for about $40 million in stock, further simplifying its structure as it transitions to a data center-focused business model.

Key Takeaways

• $21.7 Million Liquidated: Buterin has sold a total of 10,723 ETH since February 2, averaging a sale price of approximately $2,027 per token.
• Recent Acceleration: Data shows 3,765 ETH ($7.08 million) was sold in just the three days leading up to Feb. 24.
• Bearish Market Structure: The sales coincide with a 38% drop in ETH value over the last 30 days, currently testing support near $1,825.

TLDR

• Amazon is investing $12 billion in data centers across northwest Louisiana, in Caddo and Bossier Parishes
• The project will create 540 full-time jobs and is being developed with STACK Infrastructure
• Amazon will fund 100% of construction costs plus up to $400 million in local water infrastructure
• 2026 capital spending is forecast at $200 billion, up from $131 billion in 2025
• AMZN is down 11% year-to-date; Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus with a $282.21 average price target

Amazon is spending $12 billion to build data centers in Louisiana, marking one of its largest single-state infrastructure commitments to date.

The facilities will be built across Caddo and Bossier Parishes in the northwest of the state, in partnership with STACK Infrastructure. Amazon says it will cover 100% of the construction costs and is working with local utility Southwestern Electric Power Company on power infrastructure needs.

The project is expected to create 540 full-time jobs, with additional roles needed for ongoing support — electricians, HVAC technicians and similar trades.

Addressing Local Concerns

Data center projects have faced resistance in some communities due to strain on power grids and high water usage. Amazon is moving to address both.

The company plans to invest up to $400 million in public water infrastructure near the sites and says water use will be limited to cooling and operational purposes. It has also pointed to prior solar investments in Louisiana that added up to 200 MW of carbon-free energy to the state’s grid.

Part of a Much Bigger Spending Plan

The Louisiana announcement fits into Amazon’s broader capital expenditure strategy. During Q4 earnings earlier this month, Amazon said it expects to spend $200 billion in 2026 — up sharply from $131 billion in 2025.

That number hit AMZN stock hard. The stock dropped after the earnings release and is now down about 11% year-to-date, closing Monday at $205.27 after a 2.3% single-day drop.

Asked whether the $12 billion Louisiana figure sits inside that $200 billion plan, Amazon gave a non-committal answer — saying it “regularly makes investment announcements at the federal, state, and local level” that “often occur over many years.”

Tech companies as a group have committed at least $630 billion in capital spending this year, driven by AI infrastructure demand. Louisiana is becoming a notable destination — Meta Platforms has also chosen the state for its Hyperion data center, part of a $27 billion joint venture with Blue Owl Capital.

What Wall Street Thinks

Despite the stock’s slide, analyst sentiment on AMZN remains firmly positive. Out of 43 analysts covering the stock, 40 rate it a Buy and three say Hold. The average price target is $282.21 — implying around 37.5% upside from current levels.

AMZN stock is down 11% year-to-date as of the latest close.

Shrinking crypto market liquidity is a concerning sign for crypto asset valuations, as investors gravitate towards safe-haven assets like precious metals amid growing global trade uncertainty.

The stagnating stablecoin supply is presenting a “notable headwind” for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto ecosystem, according to Matrixport. “Stablecoins serve as the primary liquidity rail within digital assets and stagnation in supply often signals that capital is being off-ramped back into fiat rather than redeployed within crypto markets,” said the digital asset platform in a Tuesday X post. 

The stablecoin supply has fallen by $5.6 billion year-to-date, from $159 billion on Jan. 1, to $153.4 billon on Tuesday, according to analytics platform CryptoQuant. Stablecoin reserves on the leading crypto exchange, Binance, also shrank by 19% since November 2025, Cointelegraph reported earlier on Tuesday.

Bitcoin no longer trading like “digital gold,” says CryptoQuant CEO

Bitcoin also appears to be decoupling from gold in the short term. BTC’s 90-day Pearson correlation with gold has turned negative, falling near -0.75, according to analytics platform CryptoQuant.

The Pearson correlation measures how closely the returns of Bitcoin and gold move together at a given period, with a -1 marking a perfect negative correlation.

“Bitcoin is in a ‘not digital gold’ period,” said Ki Young Yu, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, in a Tuesday X post.

Tariff uncertainty, precious metal rotation are thinning crypto liquidity: analyst

The backdrop has been complicated by renewed tariff uncertainty. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump announced a global tariff plan that has fueled uncertainty, with a 10% rate taking effect while an increase to 15% has been discussed.

Related: Tether USDT supply set for biggest monthly decline since 2022 FTX collapse

The renewed geopolitical concerns are accelerating the crypto capital exodus towards precious metals, according to crypto exchange Bitget’s chief analyst, Ryan Lee.

The tariff fears are limiting the upside of digital assets, which are now competing with other defensive and growth assets, the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“The ongoing slide in Bitcoin and Ethereum reflects a broader risk-off macro backdrop, where tariff uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and capital rotation into precious metals and AI-linked equities have thinned crypto liquidity and weakened narratives.”

Crypto market upside will remain limited until “recovery catalysts” such as clearer US policy or more “constructive” Federal Reserve signals emerge on interest rate cuts, added Lee.

Related: Bitcoin treasuries log rare selling streak as BTC trades near $66K

The precious metal rotation is also visible in the charts, as gold and silver rose 19% and 21% year-to-date, respectively, while Bitcoin’s price fell by 27%, according to TradingView.

Tokenized real-world-assets (RWAs) are also showing signs of a rotation towards safe-haven assets, as Tehter Gold’s (XAUT) value rose 20% to $2.7 billion during the past 30 days, while holders increased by 33%, data from RWA.xyz shows.

The tokenized commodities market surpassed $6 billion on Feb. 11, logging an 53% increase in less than six weeks, as more gold investment moved on the blockchain.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder