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These catalysts could bump bitcoin as Trump hands three-week target to end Iran war

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BTC price rises as Trump says U.S. in talks with 'new regime' in Iran, threatens oil infrastructure if deal fails

Asian stocks posted their best day in months and S&P 500 futures jumped after the president said he would address the nation Wednesday night with an “important update” on Iran. Oil pared losses as the UAE reportedly prepares to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.

Bitcoin traded at $67,950 on Tuesday, up 0.2% over 24 hours, as a wave of optimism over a potential end to the Iran conflict lifted risk assets across the board. Ether rose 1.6% to $2,100, its strongest daily move in weeks.

XRP gained 0.5% to $1.34, dogecoin added 0.5% to $0.09, and BNB edged up 0.4% to $616. Solana’s SOL was the notable laggard, dropping 0.7% to $83.14 and extending weekly losses to 8.7%.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 4%, its best session since the war began, with nearly 10 stocks rising for every one that fell. Asian tech jumped 6.5%, led by Samsung and SK Hynix surging more than 9% each. S&P 500 futures climbed, and the index notched its biggest single-day gain since May.

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The catalyst was Trump telling reporters he expected the war to end within two to three weeks and that a deal with Iran was not a prerequisite for concluding the conflict. He announced a national address Wednesday at 9 p.m.

Eastern to provide what he called an “important update.” Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian told the EU Council president that Tehran has “the necessary will to end this war” but expects guarantees against future aggression.

Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE is preparing to help the U.S. and allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, which would make it the first Gulf state to enter the conflict as a combatant. Brent crude edged back above $105 after Tuesday’s decline.

The crypto market’s reaction was muted relative to equities, a pattern that has held for weeks. Bitcoin has spent the entire war grinding between $65,000 and $73,000 while equities swing violently on each headline. The gap between crypto’s sideways range and the stock market’s correction-level drawdown remains the most notable divergence in the cross-asset picture.

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There were reasons for cautious optimism beyond geopolitics. Morgan Stanley received approval for a bitcoin ETF charging just 14 basis points, 11 below the category average. The product opens access to Morgan Stanley’s 16,000 financial advisors managing $6.2 trillion, a channel that has not previously had direct bitcoin ETF exposure.

Alex Blume, CEO of Two Prime, pointed to three catalysts that could drive bitcoin higher in Q2 — the Morgan Stanley ETF, continued success of Strategy’s STRC preferred equity product in funding bitcoin purchases, and a swift resolution to the Iran war.

“A lot of market uncertainty could be resolved soon,” Blume said in an email to CoinDesk. “Coupled with new buying power, a strong Q2 may be ahead.”

Gold advanced for a fourth straight day to near $4,700, though its nearly 12% decline in March was its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The precious metal’s ongoing weakness during an active war continues to break historical precedent.

Whether Trump’s Wednesday address produces an actual off-ramp or just another headline in a month that’s been full of them will determine if this rally holds. As one analyst put it, “I’m not convinced over the longer term. Investors will soon want concrete evidence that the end of the war is in sight.”

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Crypto World

EDX Markets Applies for OCC Trust Bank to Expand Crypto Services

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Coinbase, Banks, Ripple, BitGo, United States, Paxos

EDX Markets, an institutional crypto exchange, has applied to the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank that would provide crypto custody, asset management and trade-settlement services.

The proposed entity, EDX Trust, would operate as a non-depository national bank, separating custody and settlement from trading while continuing to route order matching through EDX’s existing platform.

In its application, the company said the model is intended to address structural risks in crypto markets, where trading, custody and brokerage are often combined within a single platform, creating potential conflicts of interest and single points of failure.

EDX said the trust bank would provide fiduciary asset management services, invest client cash and stablecoin balances in highly liquid assets, and facilitate trading through a riskless principal model with end-of-day net settlement.

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The bank would operate online from Chicago and target institutional clients such as broker-dealers, futures commission merchants and registered investment advisers, according to the filing.

EDX said moving these functions into an OCC-chartered entity would allow it to offer services nationwide under a single regulatory framework while meeting custody requirements for regulated institutions.

Founded in 2022, EDX Markets is backed by traditional market participants including Citadel Securities, Virtu Financial, Fidelity Digital Assets and Hudson River Trading.

Coinbase, Banks, Ripple, BitGo, United States, Paxos
EDX Markets Holding Company trust bank application for digital asset activities. Source: OCC

Related: Fed’s Barr backs stablecoin clarity but warns of run risks

Crypto companies seek US bank charters

The application comes as crypto and financial companies increasingly pursue national trust bank charters to expand institutional services under federal oversight.

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Earlier this month, Zerohash, a blockchain infrastructure company, applied for a US national trust bank charter to expand its stablecoin and custody services for banks, brokerages and fintechs.

Coinbase, Banks, Ripple, BitGo, United States, Paxos
Source: Zerohash

Other recent applicants include Coinbase, which applied in October and is still awaiting a decision, as well as Laser Digital and Payoneer, which filed applications earlier this year to expand custody and stablecoin-related payment services.

Traditional financial institutions are also entering the space. In February, Morgan Stanley applied for a de novo trust bank charter to support digital asset services through a separate entity.

At the same time, the OCC has continued approving applicants, issuing conditional licenses last month to Bridge, Stripe and Crypto.com, following approvals in December for Ripple Labs, Circle Internet Group, Fidelity Digital Assets, Paxos and BitGo.

However, the pace of approvals has drawn scrutiny. In February, the American Bankers Association urged the OCC to slow the process, citing unresolved oversight under pending US stablecoin legislation.

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