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This Crypto Winter Much Healthier Than Previous Cycles: Bitwise CIO

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Crypto Winter Has Been Here Since January 2025, But Recovery May Be Closer Than You Think


The current bear market is not as bad as those from previous years, according to Matt Hougan. 

“The folks saying this [crypto] winter is worse than 2018 or 2022 don’t remember 2018 or 2022,” said Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan on Tuesday.

In 2018, “we had $3,000 Bitcoin and a ‘global computer’ [Ethereum] with no applications and limited throughput,” he said before adding, “In 2022, we had a total market collapse and a regulator that wanted to put us out of business.”

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Things are a little different today as we have “stablecoins going to $3 trillion, tokenization going to $200 trillion, a positive regulatory climate, and better tokenomics,” he said.

Additionally, BlackRock and Apollo are building on DeFi, there is a “massively built out infrastructure,” ETFs, and “rising concerns about fiat currency.”

“So, yep, I’m optimistic. It doesn’t mean smooth sailing, but I’m excited for the ride.”

Previous Bear Markets Were Apocalyptic

The current bear market has seen total capitalization decline 49% from its peak of just below $4.4 trillion in October to its low of $2.23 trillion on Feb. 6. This is much shallower than previous bear markets, but it is not over yet. In 2018, markets collapsed by 88%, and in 2022, they crashed by around 73% from the previous cycle peak to the bear market bottoms.

The 2022 FTX crash “was dark,” and 2018 “was borderline crypto extinction sentiment,” commented the Kobeissi Letter. The March 2020 Covid crash was also apocalyptic, with markets tanking 56% in less than a month.

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The difference this time, as pointed out by Hougan, is that the fundamentals for crypto are much stronger. Many analysts believe the current market slump is driven not by crypto-native factors but by broader macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns.

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Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 on Feb. 6 “imposed drastic psychological pressure on ‘diamond hands’ comparable to the May 2022 Luna crash.”

“Simply put, long-term holders realized significant losses — a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.”

Long Term Holders Still in Profit

Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said on Monday that the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders stands at 0.36, “meaning long-term holders are still, on average, in profit.”

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“When Long-Term Holders’ NUPL enters negative territory, it means even the most convicted participants are holding unrealized losses. Historically, this marks the phase of maximum market depression.”

In previous cycles, “this was the final phase before the start of a new bull run,” he said, noting that we are not there yet.

Bitcoin was trading around $68,000 at the time of writing after failing again to top $70,000 on Monday.

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Crypto exchange Kraken vows to support “Trump Accounts” in Wyoming

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World Liberty crypto deals net Trump, Witkoff tons of cash

Crypto exchange Kraken has vowed to support President Donald Trump’s “Trump Accounts” initiative in Wyoming.

Summary

  • Kraken will sponsor Trump Accounts for every child born in Wyoming in 2026.
  • The program grants eligible U.S. newborns a one-time Treasury contribution, with funds invested in market index funds.
  • Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis has welcomed the move.

According to the official announcement from Kraken, the crypto exchange will sponsor Trump Accounts for every child born in Wyoming in 2026 by making a financial contribution to each eligible account as part of the federal program.

For those unaware, Trump Accounts are a new type of tax-advantaged retirement account that allows parents or legal guardians to open and contribute funds for children under 18. 

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Under a federal pilot program, every U.S. citizen newborn born between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2028, is entitled to a one-time $1,000 seed contribution from the U.S. Treasury. These funds are invested in eligible market index funds and grow on a tax-deferred basis until the beneficiary reaches adulthood.

“By seeding accounts for every newborn in 2026, we are backing families from day one and reinforcing Wyoming’s role as America’s home for responsible crypto leadership,” Kraken Co-CEO Arjun Sethi said in a statement. 

Pro-crypto Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis praised Kraken’s decision to sponsor Trump Accounts in the state, adding that the investment “will ensure children in Wyoming have a financial head start.”

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“I’m grateful to Kraken for their commitment to Wyoming’s next generation and to the Cowboy State’s economic future,” she added.

Kraken has not disclosed how much it will contribute to this initiative, but said the decision was driven by Wyoming’s favorable regulatory climate, where it was able to become the nation’s first Special Purpose Depository Institution under the state’s crypto-specific banking framework.

“We picked Wyoming as our global HQ because it leads with thoughtful, responsible crypto policy,” co-CEO Dave Ripley wrote in an X post.

Kraken joins Coinbase and a slew of other financial giants like JPMorgan Chase that have publicly endorsed and supported the Trump Accounts initiative.

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In a similar gesture toward community support, crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket opened a temporary free grocery store in New York City, offering food assistance and pledging millions of meals for local residents.

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Crypto Funds See 4th Week of Outflows, but XRP and SOL Shine: CoinShares Report

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XRP Holders Realize Major Losses as Price Decline Triggers Panic Selling


Four consecutive weeks of crypto fund outflows hit $3.74 billion, but altcoins outperform as US investors retreat from the market.

Investment products linked to digital assets experienced their fourth consecutive week of outflows, recording $173 million and pushing cumulative losses over four weeks to $3.74 billion. Early in the week, inflows reached $575 million amidst brief optimism, but continued price weakness, which ended up triggering $853 million in outflows soon after.

Sentiment stabilized slightly on Friday following softer CPI data, as these investment vehicles witnessed $105 million of inflows. Trading activity also cooled significantly, and ETP volumes fell to $27 billion, less than half of the record $63 billion seen the week before.

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Altcoin Appetite Surges

In the latest edition of the “Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report,” CoinShares revealed Bitcoin continued to lag in terms of sentiment after seeing $133 million pulled from investment products tied to the asset. Short Bitcoin products also moved lower as combined losses reached $15.4 million over the past two weeks, a pattern frequently observed near cyclical lows, according to the asset manager.

Ethereum followed a similar path after seeing $85.1 million withdrawn, while Hyperliquid recorded $1 million in losses. Multi-asset strategies declined as well, with $14 million leaving the category. On the other hand, appetite remained strong for altcoin-focused investment products such as XRP, Solana, and Chainlink, which attracted $33.4 million, $31 million, and $1.1 million, respectively. Litecoin also gained a modest $0.4 million.

Regional sentiment showed a clear divide between the US and international markets. While the US experienced $403 million in outflows, other regions collectively saw $230 million in new capital. Germany led with $115 million, followed by Canada with $46.3 million and Switzerland with $36.8 million. Brazil added $14 million, Australia nearly $10 million, and Sweden $2.8 million during the same period.

Predictable Correction?

Bitcoin has shed almost 50% since its all-time high last October, prompting market analysts to predict the price could drop to as low as $50,000 before any meaningful recovery. Meanwhile, Hedy Wang, fintech veteran and founder of BlockStreet, believes that the current turbulence is a feature of a maturing market rather than a fundamental collapse. In a statement to CryptoPotato, Wang said,

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“Unlike earlier speculative bubbles, the current Web3 ecosystem is supported by a more resilient and collaborative community ethos focused on long-term building. Therefore, an analytical view suggests the market is undergoing a natural, albeit volatile, evolutionary phase, with data pointing towards a repeating historical pattern rather than an unprecedented crisis.”

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Why Traders Are Betting on $20,000 Gold

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Gold Calls Versus Puts

The gold price recently plunged in one of the sharpest one-day declines in decades after briefly topping $5,600 per ounce. Yet, traders continue to place aggressive bets that the metal could surge to $20,000 or more.

The divergence highlights a market driven by macroeconomic forces, speculation, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting central bank behavior.

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Massive Bullish Gold Bets Despite Volatility

According to market commentary from traders and analysts, roughly 11,000 contracts tied to December $15,000/$20,000 gold call spreads have been accumulated.

“Gold $20,000 calls surge despite record selloff. Deep out-of-the-money bullish bets on gold are building even after a historic correction… The position has since grown to roughly 11,000 contracts, even with prices consolidating near $5,000,” commented Walter Bloomberg.

Gold Calls Versus Puts
Gold Calls Versus Puts. Source: Walter on X

This optimism comes even as the XAU price consolidates near $5,000. The scale of these trades is striking, given the distance from current prices.

Such trades function as low-cost, high-upside wagers. For the spreads to expire in the money, gold would need to nearly triple by December, a scenario that would require a major macroeconomic or geopolitical shock.

Gold (XAU) Price Performance
Gold (XAU) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Yet the presence of these bets has already affected market forces, pushing implied volatility (IV) higher in far-out-of-the-money calls and signaling demand for extreme upside exposure.

Against this backdrop, some analysts argue that gold’s broader trajectory remains intact despite recent turbulence.

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“If you start zooming out on the macroeconomic factors, then it’s quite clear that the markets of Gold haven’t peaked at all. Yes, they can peak in the short term and have a 1-2 year consolidation period, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t in a larger bull market in Gold. As a matter of fact, I think we are. That’s why I’m buying Gold in the next 30-50% dip,” expressed Macro analyst Michael van de Poppe.

This perspective reflects a growing view among macro investors that gold’s rally is tied to structural shifts in the global financial system rather than purely cyclical factors.

Bull Market or Temporary Pause as Short-Term Constraints Remain?

Despite bullish long-term narratives, near-term volatility remains high. Commodities strategist Ole Hansen recently noted that gold rebounded above $5,000 after softer US inflation data pushed bond yields lower and revived expectations for interest-rate cuts.

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This suggests that while macro tailwinds exist, trading activity and liquidity conditions, particularly in China, can significantly influence short-term price moves.

The bullish sentiment comes alongside a surge in speculative activity across metals markets. Trading volumes in Chinese aluminum, copper, nickel, and tin futures contracts have soared to levels far exceeding historical norms, driven in part by retail investors.

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Exchanges have repeatedly tightened margin requirements and trading rules to curb excessive speculation, reflecting the scale of the frenzy.

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Such conditions often amplify price swings, creating both rapid rallies and sharp corrections.

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Another factor reinforcing the gold narrative is central-bank diversification. Economist Steve Hanke has pointed to China’s shift away from US Treasuries toward gold reserves, a trend widely interpreted as part of a broader move to reduce reliance on dollar-denominated assets.

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This pattern has fueled speculation that gold could play a larger role in global reserves if geopolitical tensions or currency instability intensify.

However,not everyone is convinced the rally is sustainable. Commodity strategist Mike McGlone has cautioned that the metals sector may be overheating, drawing parallels to previous peaks where extreme positioning preceded corrections.

Stretched valuations, elevated volatility, and surging speculative flows could leave markets vulnerable to another sharp downturn if macro conditions shift.

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BVNK Survey Finds 39% Receive Income in Stablecoins

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BVNK Survey Finds 39% Receive Income in Stablecoins

A global survey commissioned by BVNK and conducted by YouGov found that 39% of crypto users and prospective users across 15 countries receive income in stablecoins, while 27% use them for everyday payments, citing lower fees and faster cross-border transfers as key drivers.

The survey of 4,658 respondents, conducted online in September and October 2025 among adults who currently hold or plan to acquire cryptocurrency, found that stablecoin users hold an average of about $200 in their wallets globally, though holdings in high-income economies average around $1,000. 

It also found that 77% of respondents would open a stablecoin wallet with their primary bank or fintech provider if offered, and 71% expressed interest in using a linked debit card to spend stablecoins.

Those who receive income in stablecoins said the assets account for about 35% of their annual earnings on average, and those using them for cross-border transfers reported fee savings of about 40% compared with traditional remittance methods.

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More than half of the crypto holders have made a purchase specifically because a merchant accepted stablecoins, increasing to 60% in emerging markets, while 42% said they want to use stablecoins for major or lifestyle purchases compared with 28% who currently do so.

Ownership was higher in middle- and lower-income economies, where 60% of respondents said they hold stablecoins, compared with 45% in high-income economies. Africa recorded the highest ownership rate at 79% and the strongest reported increase in holdings over the past year.

Multiple tokens preferred

A BVNK spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the study was designed to examine usage patterns among existing and prospective crypto users rather than measure broader population-level adoption.

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They also said respondents tend to hold a range of dollar- and euro-pegged stablecoins rather than relying on a single issuer, suggesting users often maintain balances across multiple tokens.

When asked where they prefer to manage stablecoins, 46% of respondents selected exchange platforms, followed by payment apps with crypto features like PayPal or Venmo at 40%, and mobile crypto wallet apps at 39%. Only 13% said they would prefer to hold stablecoins in a hardware wallet.

BVNK is headquartered in London and was founded in 2021 as a stablecoin-focused payments infrastructure provider for enterprises. In June, it partnered with San Francisco-based Highnote to introduce stablecoin-based funding for the embedded finance platform’s card programs.

Related: When will crypto’s CLARITY Act framework pass in the US Senate?

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Stablecoins move into regulated payroll systems

With the passage of the GENIUS Act in the United States and the implementation of Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, stablecoins are increasingly being integrated into global payroll systems as companies expand digital asset settlement options for wages and cross-border payouts.

On Feb. 11, global payroll platform Deel said it will begin offering stablecoin salary payouts through a partnership with MoonPay, starting next month with workers in the United Kingdom and European Union before expanding to the US. 

Under the arrangement, employees can opt to receive part or all of their wages in stablecoins to non-custodial wallets, with MoonPay handling conversion and onchain settlement while Deel continues to manage payroll and compliance.

Enterprise activity in the sector has also accelerated. Paystand recently acquired Bitwage, a platform focused on cross-border stablecoin payouts, expanding digital asset settlement and foreign exchange capabilities across Paystand’s B2B payments network, which has processed more than $20 billion in payment volume, according to the company.

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Because stablecoins are typically pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies such as the US dollar or euro, they offer price stability that makes them better suited for payments than cryptocurrencies that can fluctuate sharply in value.

According to DefiLlama, the stablecoin market currently stands at $307.8 billion, up from $260.4 billion on July 19, around the time the US GENIUS Act was signed into law.

Stablecoin market cap. Source: DefiLlama

Magazine: Is China hoarding gold so yuan becomes global reserve instead of USD?