Ethereum is attempting to extend its rebound from the February lows, but the broader structure still reflects a market in recovery mode rather than a confirmed trend reversal. The next sessions should clarify whether this bounce can turn into a sustained move, or if it remains a corrective rally inside a larger downtrend.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, ETH remains within a descending channel and continues to trade below the major moving averages, with both the 100-day MA and the 200-day MA still acting as overhead pressure. This keeps the higher-time-frame bias cautious, as rallies into these dynamic resistance areas often attract supply unless price can reclaim them decisively.

From a level perspective, the first meaningful resistance sits around the $2,350 to $2,450 region, which aligns with prior structure and a visible supply area. A clean daily reclaim and hold above that zone would improve the outlook and put the $2,800 to $3,000 region back in play. On the downside, the $1,800 area remains the key demand zone that previously absorbed heavy selling. Losing it on a daily basis would expose the next lower band around $1,500.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows ETH stabilizing after the sharp sell-off, but the price action is still capped by nearby resistance, with $2,150 standing out as the immediate pivot. Recent attempts at that level have been met with rejection, suggesting sellers remain active overhead and that buyers still need stronger follow-through to flip the short-term structure.

If ETH can reclaim the $2,150 level and then hold above it, the next upside path would likely target the $2,300-2,400 area first, as the resistance zone from the daily chart.

If the rejection continues, however, or the price fails to recover after the recent fake breakout, the focus shifts back to the $1,800 region as a short-term support, and then to the $1,600-$1,500 demand area. A break below that demand zone would materially weaken the consolidation setup and raise the odds of a much deeper continuation lower.

Sentiment Analysis

Funding rates have turned mildly positive again, indicating leverage is slowly rebuilding on the long side after the capitulation phase. This is a constructive sign if it comes alongside steady price appreciation, since a balanced funding environment often supports healthier continuation rather than fragile, overlevered pumps.

That said, the market is still vulnerable around key resistance. If ETH remains capped below $2,150 while funding stays positive, the risk of long positioning becoming crowded increases, which can lead to sharp downside wicks and forced de-risk events. The cleaner bullish scenario is a sustained push above resistance with funding staying controlled, rather than spiking higher, as that would signal demand is driving the move instead of leverage chasing it.

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1991.98, down 2.1% (-41.93) since 4 p.m. ET on Thursday.

None of the 20 assets are trading higher.

Leaders: ICP (-0.2%) and APT (-0.4%).

Laggards: AAVE (-4.3%) and SOL (-3.1%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cooled after marching toward a fresh high near $74,000 earlier in the week, setting up a critical debate among traders about whether the rally marks a local top or the next leg in a larger bullish sequence. The pullback comes as market participants weigh whether the current move mirrors patterns from prior cycles and what it portends for the path ahead. Notably, the market had already surged to a roughly $126,000 peak in October 2025, a reminder that outsized booms can be followed by sharp corrections. As sentiment remains mixed, analysts are scrutinizing structure, liquidity, and on‑chain dynamics to gauge the probability of renewed upside versus a deeper retracement.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s current setup bears resemblance to the middle phases of prior bear markets, suggesting another potential leg down below $60,000 if buyers fail to sustain momentum.
• Several voices contend the bottom may be in, forecasting a breakout toward $75,000–$80,000 if demand persists and overhead resistance weakens.
• The move to $74,000 has been followed by caution signals, including a bearish chart pattern and persistent resistance near highs, which have sparked renewed debate about the cycle’s trajectory.
• Historical fractals from the 2022 bear market are often cited by bears as a reminder that euphoric rallies can precede severe declines, including revisits to sub-$60,000 levels.
• Commodity-style drivers such as strong spot‑BTC ETF inflows and tightening supply are cited as factors that could sustain a longer‑term rally, potentially supporting a climb toward the $75,000–$80,000 zone if conditions stay favorable.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. The narrative centers on potential scenarios rather than an established directional move.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Given mixed signals and a lack of a clear breakout or breakdown, a cautious stance is warranted until clearer support or resistance levels emerge.

Market context: The broader market is digesting liquidity shifts and policy expectations as ETF inflows intensify and supply tightens, factors that could either reinforce a nascent rally or amplify a retest of lower levels depending on risk appetite and macro cues.

Why it matters

The ongoing tug-of-war around BTC’s price has broad implications for traders, institutions, and on‑chain participants. If the market can sustain momentum above key pivots, the narrative shifts toward a continued ascent into the mid-to-upper 70k range and beyond, potentially attracting fresh inflows from both retail and institutional players. Conversely, a failure to hold critical support could unleash a renewed wave of selling pressure, testing the resilience of buyers and reviving memories of the sharp drawdowns that defined earlier cycles.

One of the most salient factors shaping the near-term outlook is liquidity. The year has seen a divergence between price action and on-chain signals, with exchange outflows and the behavior of large holders cited by analysts as meaningful foreshadowing tools. For instance, a notable episode where substantial BTC moved off exchanges was highlighted as an indicator of potential accumulation. Observers also point to the interplay between on-chain activity and risk sentiment, noting that the absence or presence of major liquidity events often precedes meaningful price moves.

Another layer of complexity comes from the macro backdrop and regulatory considerations. As strategic investors reassess risk, the direction of ETF inflows—especially for spot BTC products—has become a barometer for institutional confidence. In this context, the current cycle’s mix of supply constraints and growing demand could tilt the market toward a more sustained rally, provided that macro conditions remain conducive and risk appetite stays buoyant. However, if macro momentum stalls or adverse developments emerge, the same structural strengths could be insufficient to prevent a retest of lower zones, underscoring the sensitivity of BTC to both investment flows and broad market psychology.

What to watch next

• BTC must hold above the $70,000 level to maintain the bullish setup; a break below could raise the risk of a reversion toward the mid-$60,000s.
• Sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and related products would be a bullish catalyst, potentially reinforcing hands that expect higher highs in the near term.
• On-chain and market microstructure signals around the $62,000–$65,000 band will be pivotal for setting the next swing direction, as that zone is flagged by some analysts as a concentration of demand.
• Traders will be watching whether the market revisits sub-$60,000 levels in a worst-case scenario, as historical analogs have shown such levels can reappear even after renewed optimism.

Sources & verification

• Bitcoin price movements around the $74,000 high and subsequent pullback, with references to a rise toward $72k in related discussions.
• Historical context citing the October 2025 all-time peak near $126,000, used to frame the volatility of the current cycle.
• Reports of anomalous BTC exchange outflows and their potential implications for liquidity and future price action.
• Technical and chart-focused analyses that discuss patterns like death crosses and resistance levels that have influenced market sentiment.

Market reaction and key details

Market observers continue to dissect Bitcoin’s price behavior within a framework that weighs whether key milestones herald a durable pivot or a temporary pause before another leg lower. The move to approximately $74,000 has provoked a spectrum of interpretations, from calls for caution to bets on a renewed upswing. As with prior cycles, the narrative now centers on whether the current rally can sustain itself in the face of technical overheads, liquidity dynamics, and evolving macro cues.

What the data say about the near term

The fractal view—where past bear-market patterns repeat in a compressed timeline—remains a touchstone for many market watchers. Some analysts argue that the current structure mirrors the mid-phases of previous cycles, which could imply additional downside risk if the strength of the bounce fades. Others stress that the market environment has shifted through a combination of supportive factors, including tighter supply and escalating institutional interest, which could cushion against a sharp retreat.

Notable voices in the community have offered contrasting takes. One analyst highlighted that each cycle tends to form a local top before a new cycle of price discovery, a pattern that could imply a correction after the recent rally. Others point to a different dynamic this time around, arguing that the combination of liquidity pumps and on‑chain behavior may yield a higher probability of a sustained breakout. The discussion is nuanced, and the outcome will hinge on the durability of support at critical levels and the intensity of buying pressure as the market digests new information.

As part of the broader narrative, several observers emphasized the potential influence of external factors beyond price action alone. The trajectory of ETF inflows, for instance, could prove decisive in shaping near-term momentum, while shifts in risk appetite driven by macro developments will likely redefine the odds of success for a move above the $75,000 threshold. In that regard, the market remains highly sensitive to headlines and liquidity shifts, with traders adopting a careful stance until a clearer pattern emerges.

Analysts who track swing dynamics note that, even if the path stays volatile, there is a growing recognition that the market is being influenced by a broader regime shift—one where on‑ramp liquidity, speculative positions, and institutional participation interact in ways that were less pronounced in earlier cycles. The result is a more complex price landscape, where a single event or data point is unlikely to decide the outcome. Instead, market participants will likely respond to a constellation of signals, including on‑chain flows, ETF activity, and macro indicators, as they gauge whether the current cycle is setting up for a durable move or another retracement.

For now, the consensus remains mixed. The price action to date—coupled with warnings of potential sub-$60,000 revisits and the prospect of a breakout if certain levels hold—suggests that risk-managed positioning may be prudent for those navigating this period of uncertainty. The story remains about the balance of power between bears and bulls, with the outcome likely to be defined by the next few price swings rather than a single trend line.

Sam Bankman-Fried’s X account, which claims to relay the convicted fraudster’s words “through a proxy,” is now apparently spending much of its time following promoters of insider enrichment schemes.

Among those followed by the account, according to tracker service Web3 Alerts, are a robot memecoin promoter, a “chaos trader on Solana shitters,” and another memecoin trader.

Another follow claims to be “manifesting 1000x” but most probably hasn’t.

The tracker first flagged the pattern on February 26 when @SBF_FTX followed someone who claims to be a “copy trade messiah.”

Its owner openly promotes a token that’s lost one-quarter of its value in the past three months and is down 90% from its December 24 high.

The token’s description has all the hallmarks of AI slop, including run-on sentences, universality, superficiality, and a word salad of futuristic buzzwords. It reads: 

“An end-to-end solution enabling agents across domains, frameworks, and specialties to work together seamlessly in a unified environment—combining custom cognitive frameworks, collaborative architectures, and intelligent integrations to enable novel ways of executing work. From business automation to creative production, users will have access to agentic-driven workflows that adapt to their needs, enabling them to streamline processes and tackle ambitious projects with more autonomy than ever before. The entire agent-powered teams can be configured, deployed, and tailored without necessitating any technical expertise. We are defining a new era in personal autonomy.”

Trading volumes in tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) routed through 1inch’s integration with Ondo have passed $2.5 billion since the partnership went live in September 2025.

According to data published on Dune Analytics and a release shared with Cointelegraph, real-world assets (RWAs) are now the fastest-growing volume category on 1inch. While they still account for a minority of overall flow, 1inch co-founder Sergei Kunz told Cointelegraph that “the direction of travel is clear,” and shows no signs of slowing down, despite the broader crypto slump.

​Most of the activity is happening on BNB (BNB) Chain, where roughly $2 billion in related volume has been generated over 1.3 million transactions, with peak active users nearing 24,800 in a single period. 

Kunz said that the combination of a low-friction user experience and massive retail distribution made BNB Chain “the natural place for RWA activity to occur,” adding that it was “happening faster and more retail-sized than on Ethereum (ETH).”

Related: MEXC expands tokenized stock offerings with new Ondo Finance listings

He added that both retail and advanced users were trading RWAs, and that the typical swap size was around $1,400, which he said showed “real capital, deployed with intent” rather than test traffic.

The most popular tokens are currently well-known traditional finance names such as Nvidia ($354 million in volume), Tesla ($332 million), Google ($249 million), and Netflix ($98 million), plus silver among non-equity assets ($225 million).

Tokenized RWAs defy slump as Ethereum nears $15 billion

The milestone comes as tokenized RWAs emerge as one of the few consistent growth stories in crypto. Ethereum’s RWA total value locked (TVL) has climbed to nearly $15 billion, up roughly 200% over the past year.

Tokenized US Treasuries have been a major driver of that growth, with a market cap that has risen by over $1 billion since the start of 2026, a roughly 50x increase since 2024, as products like BlackRock’s BUIDL fund help pull traditional fixed income onchain.

Related: Kraken’s xStocks tops $25B in volume with more than 80K onchain holders

At the same time, tokenized RWAs and the infrastructure behind them have continued to attract fresh capital. RWA tokenization projects were among the biggest winners in crypto venture funding in 2025, while onchain RWA markets climbed roughly 13.5% over 30 days during a period when the wider crypto market shed around $1 trillion in value.

RWAs to become everyday DeFi plumbing

1inch’s Ondo integration shows how aggregators are evolving into distribution rails for regulated RWA issuers. Kunz said 1inch remained non-custodial and did not issue the RWAs itself, with eligibility and jurisdictional controls enforced at the issuer level, while it focuses on routing, application programming interfaces (APIs) and disclosures. 

Looking ahead, Kunz sees RWAs taking “the next leap forward” only when liquidity depth, standards and regulatory clarity align, at which point he expects tokenized assets to function as everyday “financial plumbing on DeFi” rails rather than a niche side bet.

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