US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged more than $1 billion in net outflows over the past week, intensifying a notable flow dynamic that traders are watching for clues about the price trajectory of the world’s largest cryptocurrency. In a Friday briefing, crypto sentiment platform Santiment framed these withdrawals as a potential buying signal, arguing the pattern may represent a healthy market reset rather than a straightforward bearish turning point.

Bitcoin was trading around $75,410 at the time of writing, after hitting as high as $79,052 on May 16, according to CoinMarketCap.

Key takeaways

• Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows exceed $1 billion over the last trading week, with six sessions contributing to a total of about $1.26 billion in net withdrawals across 11 funds, per Farside data.
• Santiment describes the flows as a counter-indicator, noting that ETFs largely reflect retail conviction rather than smart-money positioning and may presage patient accumulation.
• Bitcoin’s price sits near $75.4k, having briefly tested higher levels in mid-May, underscoring a dissonance between flow signals and near-term price moves.
• Analysts expect ETF inflows to push past previous record levels, with James Seyffart citing roughly $60 billion in inflows since the ETF launch and indicating more products are on the way.
• The market remains split on how to interpret ETF flows: a bearish signal for some, a potential setup for long-term holders and accumulators for others.

Santiment’s counter-indicator thesis on ETF outflows

Santiment argues that the current outflow regime from spot Bitcoin ETFs may represent a healthy market reset rather than a loss of confidence. In its Friday report, the analytics firm pointed out that ETF movements often align with retail sentiment, which can overshoot in both directions. The authors noted that sustained ETF outflows have historically correlated with conditions favorable for patient accumulation rather than panic selling, suggesting a potential setup for stronger demand once prices stabilize.

To illustrate the current dynamic, Santiment highlighted that retail investors appeared to be growing impatient after Bitcoin failed to sustain a move above $80,000 in May. The firm’s takeaway is that the outflows could be resetting the market’s price discovery process, creating opportunities for longer-term participants who can time entries with greater discipline.

For context, data tracked by Farside shows that the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.26 billion in net outflows over the last five days across six trading sessions, underscoring a persistent trend rather than a one-off event. These figures contribute to a broader debate about whether ETF flows are a reliable barometer of demand or simply a reflection of shifting retail appetite.

Price action and the outflow narrative

Bitcoin’s price action in the near term remains a point of contention. While the current price sits in the mid-$70k range, the mid-May spike above $79,000 underscored a potential decoupling between ETF flow signals and immediate price gains. The prevailing narrative in the broader crypto industry has often treated repeated ETF outflows as a bearish signal that retail sentiment is waning. Santiment’s perspective, however, offers a counterpoint: if outflows are concentrated among retail-oriented instruments, the result could be a more resilient base of holders primed to accumulate on dips.

Observers will want to monitor whether the outflow pattern abates or accelerates in the coming weeks, and how price reacts as new ETF products enter the market. The mixed interpretation underscores a wider theme in crypto markets: structural products can influence price discovery, but their implications are not universally agreed upon and may hinge on the behavior of different participant cohorts.

Looking ahead: ETF inflows and the path to new records

On the bullish side, market-watchers have begun revisiting the ceiling of ETF-driven inflows. James Seyffart, an ETF analyst, contends that the sector has already clawed back most of the roughly $9 billion in outflows recorded between October and February. Speaking on Michael van de Poppe’s YouTube show, he estimated that total inflows since the ETFs’ launch sit near $60 billion and suggested the pace could push past prior all-time highs as more products enter the market.

“We’re around $60 billion in inflows since the ETFs’ launch. So, we’re almost at that all-time high peak,” Seyffart said, adding that additional ETF launches are on the horizon. The prospect of higher inflows could offer a counterpoint to the narrative of sustained retail weakness, particularly if inflows begin to outpace outflows in the coming months.

As this dynamic unfolds, investors are left to weigh the reliability of ETF flow signals against real-time price action and macro risk sentiment. The broader debate—whether ETF outflows portend stronger downside or set the stage for a durable rebuying phase—remains unsettled, but the flow data clearly remains a key focal point for traders and portfolio managers.

Related coverage: SEC signals nuance around tokenized assets and the regulatory landscape for innovative exchange-traded products continue to evolve, a factor that market participants will watch closely as new vehicles seek regulatory clarity and market access.

Watch next for continued updates on ETF flow momentum, the arrival of new spot Bitcoin ETFs, and how price action responds as liquidity dynamics evolve. As always, the coming weeks will test whether this period of outflows translates into a more favorable terrain for long-term holders or reinforces a renewed phase of volatility.

TLDR:

• The ETH Smart Money Flow Index recorded an 18% net inflow rise over seven days despite bearish ETF data.
• Large non-exchange ETH wallet cohorts net-added ETH across nine of the last twelve trading sessions.
• The same cohort bridged ETH to Hyperliquid and Base during the May 14 dip, signaling repositioning not selling.
• This accumulation pattern mirrors October 2023 wallet behavior, which preceded ETH’s move from $1,500 to $4,100.

The ETH Smart Money Flow Index has recorded an 18% net inflow rise over seven days, even as ETF outflows mount. This divergence is drawing attention from on-chain analysts tracking large wallet behavior.

While exchange data and ETF metrics point toward capitulation, a separate layer of on-chain activity tells a different story.

The contrast between these two data streams is reshaping how some analysts interpret current ETH market conditions.

Large Wallet Cohorts Net-Buy ETH During Price Decline

ETH lost its $2,200 support level recently, triggering widespread bearish sentiment across the market. ETF outflows totaled $431.86 million across eight sessions between May 11 and May 20. Public dashboards broadly reflected capitulation signals during that same stretch.

However, Alphractal posted on X that the Smart Money Flow Index told a different story. The metric tracks the largest non-exchange ETH wallet cohorts and monitors where they route liquidity on-chain. According to the post, these wallets net-added ETH in nine of the last twelve sessions.

This metric does not read ETF wrappers or aggregate exchange balances. Instead, it focuses on wallet-level activity from cohorts historically tied to large ETH price moves. That distinction separates it from most publicly available tracking tools.

The same cohort also began bridging ETH to Hyperliquid and Base during the May 14 dip. This movement suggests repositioning rather than outright selling, which differs from what exchange flow data currently shows.

On-Chain Repositioning Mirrors a Pattern Seen in October 2023

Alphractal noted that this behavior mirrors a pattern the same cohort displayed in October 2023. At that time, these wallets accumulated ETH before the asset moved from $1,500 to $4,100. The current setup is drawing comparisons to that earlier accumulation phase.

The post stated that stacking ETF outflow data alongside Smart Money Flow data produces a clearer picture. Retail investors and ETF allocators appear to be selling below $2,200. Meanwhile, the cohort tied to previous cycle bottoms continues to absorb that supply.

No single metric is sufficient for reading ETH market structure accurately. ETF outflows appear bearish in isolation, while Smart Money Flow reads bullish on its own. Combining both layers reveals the divergence between surface-level sentiment and deeper on-chain activity.

Alphractal stopped short of predicting an immediate price rally. The post clarified that the takeaway is about net buying behavior, not a short-term price call. The divergence between front-page narratives and wallet cohort activity remains the central point of the analysis.

Key Highlights

• James Comer, Chairman of the House Oversight Committee, issued formal letters to Polymarket and Kalshi executives requesting comprehensive documentation related to potential insider trading violations.
• Investigators identified more than 80 questionably timed wagers on Polymarket preceding American military strikes targeting Iran, exhibiting an extraordinary 98% success rate.
• Federal prosecutors charged a member of the US Army with criminal offenses for purportedly leveraging confidential military intelligence to generate profits exceeding $400,000 through Polymarket wagers involving Venezuela.
• The Committee Chairman indicated potential legislative action to prohibit congressional members and federal employees from participating in prediction market platforms.
• Industry analysts from Bernstein project prediction market transaction volumes reached $51 billion throughout 2025, with forecasts suggesting $240 billion for 2026.

James Comer, who chairs the House Oversight Committee, is requesting comprehensive internal documentation from executives at two prominent prediction market platforms amid growing concerns that individuals with access to classified government information may be exploiting it for financial gain.

Correspondence dispatched on Friday to Shayne Coplan, Chief Executive of Polymarket, and Tarek Mansour, who leads Kalshi, requested comprehensive information regarding each platform’s user verification procedures, geographical access controls, and systems for detecting abnormal betting patterns.

“Concerns have emerged that congressional representatives, administration officials, and any category of federal employee could leverage privileged insider information to generate substantial returns on government-related prediction markets,” Comer stated during an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box.

The investigation focuses on over 80 transactions identified as suspiciously coordinated with the timing of United States military operations directed at Iran. A May 13 investigation by The New York Times documented multiple instances involving wagers related to Israeli military actions against Iran, a ceasefire announcement from Trump, and political election markets.

Nicolas Vaiman, who co-founded the blockchain intelligence platform Bubblemaps, revealed that his research team discovered 80 Polymarket transactions achieving a 98% profitability rate. “Pure chance cannot account for such consistent winning outcomes,” he stated.

Military Personnel Indicted for Classified Information Misuse

This congressional investigation emerged following criminal indictment proceedings initiated in April against Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke of the United States Army. Federal prosecutors contend he exploited classified intelligence obtained from a military operation connected to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, generating more than $400,000 in profits through Polymarket event contract trading.

Van Dyke entered a not guilty plea to multiple charges, including commodities fraud and unauthorized disclosure of confidential governmental information. He secured release following posting of $250,000 bail.

Both prediction market platforms rejected the allegations and defended their practices. Polymarket emphasized it “operates a thorough market integrity system” and pledged full cooperation with congressional investigators. Kalshi expressed pride in its “extensive safeguards preventing insider trading” and committed to working with legislative authorities.

Senate Investigation Compounds Pressure

The House inquiry emerged merely 48 hours following a Senate Commerce Committee session during which legislators across party lines questioned prediction market platform representatives. Ted Cruz, chairing the Senate Commerce Committee, condemned the industry for facilitating cheating incidents within sports betting, while Senator John Hickenlooper accused these companies of predatory marketing tactics aimed at younger demographics through social media channels.

Polymarket revised its insider trading prevention protocols in March. Kalshi prohibited three American political candidates from its platform in April after they wagered on their own electoral contests.

Comer announced he may introduce legislative proposals specifically prohibiting congressional members, executive branch personnel, and additional government workers from engaging with prediction market platforms.

According to research published by Wall Street firm Bernstein, prediction market trading volumes attained $51 billion during 2025, with projections indicating potential growth to $240 billion throughout 2026. Industry analysts forecast the sector could expand to approximately $1 trillion in total value by 2030.

Vaiman cautioned that irregular trading patterns detectable by independent researchers remain equally visible to foreign adversaries of the United States, creating national security vulnerabilities extending beyond standard financial oversight considerations.

TLDR:

• Joseph Lubin links the US debt crisis to the gold standard’s removal and unchecked government spending.
• Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin white paper inspired Lubin to build decentralized financial systems.
• MetaMask has grown into a full financial platform, giving users direct control over their assets.
• Lubin warns that centralized AI and big tech control could shape a negative future for society.

Blockchain technology may hold the answer to the United States’ growing debt crisis. Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin made this case on the When Shift Happens podcast on May 7, 2026.

Lubin, who also serves as CEO of ConsenSys, pointed to decentralized systems as a remedy for failing financial structures.

He traced the root of today’s debt problem to the abandonment of the gold standard, which he said enabled unchecked government spending.

Broken Systems and the Case for Decentralized Trust

Moving off the gold standard, Lubin argued, created a deeply damaging cycle. “It created a loop among corporations, lobbyists, and legislators,” he said, describing how public debt became a structural feature.

This cycle, he continued, is one that current political systems simply cannot break. As a result, governments have been able to print money without meaningful restriction.

Lubin drew a direct connection between this financial structure and broader public distrust. Events like the September 11 attacks made the situation worse.

The Patriot Act that followed normalized widespread surveillance across the country. These developments, he said, deepened his concern about centralized power over everyday lives.

His outlook shifted after reading Satoshi Nakamoto’s white paper on Bitcoin. “Satoshi’s white paper showed me that decentralized trust could fix this,” Lubin noted on the podcast.

He came to see Bitcoin as an antifragile asset capable of withstanding systemic pressure. That realization later drove him to help build Ethereum and the wider DeFi ecosystem.

Lubin also raised concerns about the concentration of AI power within large tech companies. He warned against centralized surveillance systems designed to influence human behavior at scale.

“We need decentralized architectures to prevent control over human behavior and global systems,” he stated. The same principles behind blockchain technology, he added, should shape how artificial intelligence evolves.

MetaMask, DeFi, and the Push for Financial Sovereignty

Building on those foundations, Lubin described Ethereum as enabling an entirely new form of finance. He referred to it as a “world ledger” and a “global digital asset settlement layer.”

Through ConsenSys, his team has focused on building the infrastructure to support that vision. Tools like MetaMask and Infura have been central to that work.

MetaMask, specifically, has grown well beyond a basic Ethereum wallet. “MetaMask has evolved from an Ethereum interface into a comprehensive financial platform,” Lubin explained.

The tool gives individuals direct, self-managed control over their financial activity. He described this self-sovereignty as a defining goal of blockchain technology today.

The accessibility of DeFi has also improved steadily, according to Lubin. He noted that the space has become safer and easier to navigate over time.

More users can now participate without needing deep technical knowledge. That progress, he said, is key to making financial independence widely achievable.

Looking ahead, Lubin outlined two distinct futures depending on how these technologies develop. “There is a fork in the road between positive and negative futures,” he warned.

One path leads to a society built on decentralized systems with healthy AI integration. The outcome, he suggested, rests entirely on decisions made by builders, regulators, and everyday users.

Key Takeaways

• XRP is currently hovering near $1.36, struggling beneath its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages
• Cumulative spot XRP ETF inflows have reached $1.39 billion, with $12.57 million added this week alone
• Binance XRP reserves declined from 2.78 billion to 2.74 billion tokens, suggesting accumulation behavior
• On May 20, the XRP Ledger registered 4,300 new wallets within 24 hours — marking 2026’s fourth-largest daily expansion
• The token remains 62% beneath its July 2025 peak of $3.66, with critical resistance levels between $1.40 and $1.55

XRP is currently positioned around $1.36 following an unsuccessful attempt to surpass $1.39 during Thursday’s trading session. The digital asset is maintaining a foothold just above critical short-term support at $1.35, though the overall momentum continues to face headwinds.

The current price level remains confined below three significant moving averages. The 50-day exponential moving average stands at $1.41, the 100-day at $1.48, and the 200-day at $1.70. With all three indicators positioned above spot price, market observers suggest this configuration restricts potential upward momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently registers near 42 on the daily timeframe. This indicates moderate selling pressure without reaching oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains in negative territory, signaling continued short-term bearish control.

Should XRP fall through the $1.35 threshold, the subsequent support zone appears around $1.30, where market participants may seek entry opportunities.

Institutional Capital Continues Flowing Into XRP Products

Contrary to the subdued price performance, institutional capital continues entering XRP-focused investment vehicles. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded $12.57 million in aggregate inflows through Thursday, representing the third consecutive week of net positive flows.

Total cumulative inflows have now climbed to $1.39 billion, with assets under management reaching $1.15 billion. Thursday’s trading session alone contributed $8.8 million in net inflows, extending the streak of positive ETF flows to 12 consecutive days.

U.S.-based spot XRP ETFs currently control approximately 1.34% of the token’s circulating supply. Throughout May, these investment products have absorbed roughly $107.3 million worth of XRP.

Simultaneously, XRP holdings on Binance decreased from a May peak of 2.78 billion tokens to 2.74 billion. Declining exchange balances typically signal bullish sentiment, as it indicates investors are transferring assets to private wallets rather than positioning for sales.

On-Chain Metrics Reveal Growing Network Participation

Blockchain analytics revealed a notable increase in XRP Ledger engagement on May 20. The network registered 4,300 newly created wallets during a single 24-hour window — representing 2026’s fourth-largest daily expansion according to Santiment data. Concurrently, daily active addresses surged from 32,000 to 43,520.

Analyst Amonyx highlighted this development, questioning whether it might signal a potential trend reversal. Santiment emphasized that “network growth is among the top leading signals to identify reversals.” Fellow analyst Niroshan682 observed that wallet proliferation frequently precedes broader network adoption, particularly when accompanied by strengthening ETF demand and institutional participation.

However, overhead resistance zones continue limiting upside potential. According to Glassnode cost-basis analysis, investors currently hold approximately 3.75 billion XRP at average acquisition prices between $1.37 and $1.45. This concentration could generate selling pressure as the token approaches break-even levels.

An additional resistance barrier exists between $1.68 and $1.70, where roughly 3.8 billion XRP was accumulated. The token currently trades 62% below its July 2025 high of $3.66.

For bullish momentum to materialize, XRP must decisively clear the $1.40–$1.55 range to validate a breakout from its current consolidation pattern. Thursday’s $8.8 million ETF inflow represents the most encouraging data point amid an otherwise range-bound trading week.

Key Highlights

• Chun Wang, co-founder of F2Pool, has been appointed Mission Commander for SpaceX’s inaugural commercial crewed spaceflight to Mars.
• The expedition spans two years and features a lunar flyby followed by a Mars flyby before Earth re-entry.
• Wang oversees approximately 11.3–11.5% of the world’s Bitcoin mining hashrate and possesses roughly $300 million in personal Bitcoin assets.
• For the first time, SpaceX disclosed ownership of 8,285 Bitcoin and has filed confidentially for an IPO with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion.
• Wang previously commanded Fram2, SpaceX’s inaugural crewed polar orbit expedition, in 2025.

Chun Wang, the co-founder of F2Pool and a prominent figure in Bitcoin mining, has been selected to command SpaceX’s inaugural human spaceflight mission to Mars—a groundbreaking two-year expedition into deep space scheduled for 2026.

SpaceX made the announcement Thursday, confirming that Wang will pilot the Starship spacecraft on an extraordinary voyage that extends beyond the Earth-Moon system, executes a flyby of Mars, and completes the return journey to Earth.

Wang, a Chinese-born entrepreneur who holds citizenship in Malta and St. Kitts and Nevis, established F2Pool in 2013 alongside co-founder Shixing Mao. The mining operation currently manages between 11.3% and 11.5% of the worldwide Bitcoin hashrate. Wang’s individual Bitcoin portfolio is valued at more than $300 million.

Prior to the Mars expedition, Wang is scheduled to participate in SpaceX’s inaugural commercial crewed lunar flyby aboard Starship. This week-long mission will take him approximately 125 miles from the Moon’s surface, accompanied by Dennis and Akiko Tito.

This won’t mark Wang’s debut in space travel. He commanded the Fram2 mission in 2025, which represented SpaceX’s first crewed polar orbit flight.

An Ambitious Two-Year Expedition Through Deep Space

The Mars expedition will extend across a full two-year period. The astronauts will venture beyond the Earth-Moon system, execute a high-altitude flyby of Mars, and navigate a sophisticated trajectory back to Earth.

The mission will utilize SpaceX’s advanced Starship V3 platform. This enhanced spacecraft features vacuum-jacketed header feed lines, sophisticated high-voltage cryogenic recirculation technology, and 60 specially designed avionics units with the capacity to manage up to 9 megawatts of maximum power output.

The astronauts will confront significant challenges throughout the mission. These encompass equipment wear and tear, cryogenic fuel management in the depths of space, and prolonged radiation exposure spanning 24 months.

Wang and his fellow crew members are also responsible for gathering biomedical information. This encompasses behavioral health monitoring and recording the first-ever human X-ray imagery captured in microgravity conditions.

This information will enable SpaceX to refine Starship for quick turnaround operations and strategize upcoming missions. Elon Musk’s ultimate vision involves transporting up to one million individuals to Mars.

“After we come back from Mars, we will have the opportunity to take some real photos, especially of Mars,” Wang said in a SpaceX video. “Mars will no longer be a distant place. It will become reality.”

SpaceX Reveals Bitcoin Portfolio and IPO Strategy

The Mars mission revelation arrives during a pivotal period for SpaceX. The aerospace company has submitted a confidential IPO filing with ambitions for a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion, which would establish a new record.

SpaceX has also made its first public revelation of its Bitcoin portfolio. The company currently possesses 8,285 Bitcoin.

Since 2020, SpaceX has successfully transported 78 crew members to and from space throughout 20 missions. Seven of these were dedicated commercial or private astronaut expeditions.

Neither the lunar nor Mars missions have confirmed launch dates at this time.

Key Highlights

• NEAR Protocol rallied 50% over a seven-day period, reaching a six-month peak of $2.34.
• BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes labeled NEAR as one of three essential altcoins, sparking retail momentum.
• Bitwise’s NEAR exchange-traded product saw significant institutional capital inflows.
• The protocol unveiled upgrades focused on AI capabilities, privacy features, and dynamic resharding technology.
• Chart analysis reveals a breakout from a long-term falling wedge pattern, targeting $5.75.

NEAR Protocol delivered an explosive performance this week. The cryptocurrency surged 50% across seven trading days, peaking at $2.34 on Friday—the highest level recorded in half a year. Over the past 24 hours alone, NEAR jumped 34%, while trading volumes spiked 190% to reach $1.15 billion, indicating powerful buying pressure.

This sharp upward movement resulted in more than $9.85 million in liquidated short positions, wiping out bearish bets placed against the cryptocurrency.

Much of the momentum traces back to Arthur Hayes, the high-profile crypto investor and co-founder of BitMEX. Hayes publicly identified NEAR alongside HYPE and ZEC as the “holy trinity” of alternative cryptocurrencies. According to Coin Bureau’s post on X, this single endorsement catalyzed a roughly 30% price spike.

As one of crypto’s most influential figures, Hayes commands substantial retail attention, and his public support rapidly amplified interest in NEAR.

Institutional Capital and Network Activity

The rally extends beyond social media hype. Bitwise announced substantial inflows into its NEAR-based exchange-traded product, signaling genuine institutional appetite. On-chain researcher and former NEAR ecosystem contributor Vadim Zacodil pointed to the protocol’s token buyback program as an additional price support mechanism.

NEAR co-founder Illia Polosukhin’s expertise in artificial intelligence has positioned the project favorably during the current AI token surge. Simultaneously, other AI-linked cryptocurrencies including Grass, OpenServe, and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) recorded double-digit percentage gains within the same 24-hour timeframe.

The combined market capitalization of AI and big data cryptocurrency tokens climbed 8% to $21.44 billion in a single day, demonstrating sector-wide momentum.

Technical Developments and Price Projections

Nvidia’s impressive Q1 2026 financial results—approximately $81.6 billion in revenue with projections approaching $1 trillion for 2027—provided additional tailwinds for AI-related blockchain projects. Historical patterns show NEAR’s price sensitivity to Nvidia earnings, including a 58% surge in February following the chip maker’s Q4 2025 report.

NEAR has scheduled meaningful protocol enhancements for June, including dynamic resharding technology designed to dramatically expand network throughput. The development team has also prioritized privacy-focused features and confidential transaction capabilities—a technical challenge Vitalik Buterin has identified as critical for blockchain’s future.

MN Capital’s founder Michael van de Poppe shared on X that NEAR displays “one of the most bullish charts” currently available. He identified immediate resistance levels at $2 and the $2.25–$2.50 range, with a subsequent target near $2.75. Successfully clearing the $2.60–$3.00 supply zone could establish a path toward the technical target of $5.75 based on wedge pattern measurements.

BitMEX Research Analyst Shang Wu observed earlier this month that NEAR trades at approximately 56x annualized fees, representing a discount compared to most competing Layer 1 blockchain platforms.

By Friday’s close, NEAR Protocol’s market capitalization approached $3 billion, marking a monthly increase exceeding 50%.

Key Takeaways

• Kevin Warsh officially became Federal Reserve chairman on Friday following a 54-45 Senate confirmation, taking over from Jerome Powell.
• Market expectations have eliminated any possibility of rate cuts throughout 2026, with hike probabilities climbing.
• CME FedWatch tools indicate a 70% probability of an interest rate increase at December 2026’s FOMC gathering.
• Economic analysts suggest the Fed might implement up to 100 basis points in rate increases if inflation remains persistently above 2%.
• The new Fed chairman’s inaugural policy meeting is set for June 16-17.

Financial markets have dramatically recalibrated expectations toward interest rate increases in 2026 following Kevin Warsh’s official appointment as Federal Reserve chairman.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Kevin Warsh has officially been sworn in as the new chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell. pic.twitter.com/H8l0qIRX9t

— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) May 22, 2026

The swearing-in ceremony took place Friday at the White House, with Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas administering the oath. Warsh assumes leadership after a closely divided 54-45 Senate confirmation that followed partisan voting patterns.

During the ceremonial proceedings, President Donald Trump emphasized his expectation for independent action from Warsh. “I want Kevin to be totally independent and do a great job. Don’t look at me and don’t look at anybody. Just do your own job,” Trump stated directly to the newly appointed chairman.

The president had endured sustained criticism from Democratic lawmakers who raised doubts about Warsh’s commitment to maintaining the Fed’s institutional independence. Senator Elizabeth Warren notably described him as a “sock puppet” serving presidential interests. Warsh firmly disputed this characterization and committed to autonomous monetary policy decisions.

Trump further addressed attendees by highlighting that employment figures have reached unprecedented heights and asserting the nation could expand economically to resolve its debt challenges. “We want to stop inflation, but we don’t want to stop greatness,” he declared.

Investor Sentiment Shifts Toward Tightening

Contrary to Trump’s stated preference for reduced interest rates, financial markets are forecasting a starkly different trajectory. Current CME FedWatch data reveals a complete absence of rate cut expectations throughout the entire 2026 calendar year.

A mere 3.5% of market participants anticipate even a modest rate increase at the upcoming June 17 FOMC session. However, by July, hike probability climbs to 17%.

The December meeting commands the greatest attention. Approximately 67% to 70% of investors currently forecast an interest rate elevation at 2026’s concluding FOMC gathering. The predominant scenario involves a hike to the 375-400 basis point band, representing a 25 basis point advancement from today’s 350-375 basis point target range.

Certain economic forecasters project more aggressive scenarios. Should inflation maintain levels exceeding 2%, they anticipate the Fed could implement cumulative rate increases totaling 100 basis points. Such action would effectively neutralize the three rate reductions executed during 2025.

Policy Direction Changed Before Leadership Transition

Documentation from April’s FOMC meeting revealed the directional shift commenced prior to Warsh’s arrival. Committee members indicated that “some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2%.”

The meeting record also documented that numerous participants advocated eliminating wording that implied preference toward rate reductions.

Inflation anxieties stem partially from escalating oil prices, artificial intelligence-fueled demand expansion, and continuing geopolitical strains connected to US-Iran relations.

Extended-horizon markets reflect similar trends. For June 2027, traders assign just 15.8% likelihood that rates remain at 350-375 basis points. Instead, 33.4% project rates at 375-400 while another 30.2% anticipate 400-425. Some market positions even contemplate levels reaching 500-525 basis points.

Rising interest rates typically present challenges for risk-oriented assets. Bitcoin, cryptocurrency markets, and equity instruments could all encounter resistance if borrowing costs escalate throughout the coming year.

Chairman Warsh’s inaugural policy decision meeting commences June 16.

The recent streak of outflows from US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling more than $1 billion over the past trading week, suggests a potential buying opportunity for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, according to crypto sentiment platform Santiment.

“Santiment’s analysts read these flows as a counter-indicator, since ETFs disproportionately reflect retail conviction rather than smart money positioning,” Santiment said in a report on Friday.

Santiment said retail investors were losing patience after Bitcoin (BTC) failed to hold above $80,000 in May. Bitcoin is trading at $75,410 at the time of publication, after reaching as high as $79,052 on May 16, according to CoinMarketCap.

Santiment’s take contrasts with broader crypto industry view

The view contrasts with the broader crypto market narrative, where consecutive days of outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are often seen as a bearish signal and a sign of weakening retail sentiment that could point to further downside. However, Santiment argues the recent outflows instead resemble a healthy market reset.

Bitcoin is down 4.44% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

“Sustained ETF outflows have historically correlated with conditions favorable for patient accumulation rather than panic,” Santiment said.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded outflows across the past six trading sessions, with the 11 funds seeing a combined $1.26 billion in net outflows over just the last five days, according to Farside data. 

Bitcoin ETFs are going to pass all-time high inflows: Analyst

Some analysts anticipate the spot Bitcoin ETF outflow trend will reverse in the near term.

ETF analyst James Seyffart said on Michael van de Poppe’s podcast, “New Era Finance,” published on YouTube on Friday, that Bitcoin ETFs have now clawed back most of the $9 billion in outflows recorded between October and February.

Related: SEC’s Peirce tempers expectations over tokenized stocks exemption

“We’re around 60 billion inflows now since the ETFs’ launch. So, we’re almost at that all-time high peak,” Seyffart said.

“I think we’re going to pass it. And we have so many other ETFs coming to market,” Seyffart said.

Magazine: ETH bears growling, Tom Lee’s buying, XRP to ‘explode’: Market Moves