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XRP ETFs Attract $1.39 Billion as Token Struggles Below Key Moving Averages

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xrp price

Key Takeaways

  • XRP is currently hovering near $1.36, struggling beneath its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages
  • Cumulative spot XRP ETF inflows have reached $1.39 billion, with $12.57 million added this week alone
  • Binance XRP reserves declined from 2.78 billion to 2.74 billion tokens, suggesting accumulation behavior
  • On May 20, the XRP Ledger registered 4,300 new wallets within 24 hours — marking 2026’s fourth-largest daily expansion
  • The token remains 62% beneath its July 2025 peak of $3.66, with critical resistance levels between $1.40 and $1.55

XRP is currently positioned around $1.36 following an unsuccessful attempt to surpass $1.39 during Thursday’s trading session. The digital asset is maintaining a foothold just above critical short-term support at $1.35, though the overall momentum continues to face headwinds.

xrp price
XRP Price

The current price level remains confined below three significant moving averages. The 50-day exponential moving average stands at $1.41, the 100-day at $1.48, and the 200-day at $1.70. With all three indicators positioned above spot price, market observers suggest this configuration restricts potential upward momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently registers near 42 on the daily timeframe. This indicates moderate selling pressure without reaching oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains in negative territory, signaling continued short-term bearish control.

Source: TradingView

Should XRP fall through the $1.35 threshold, the subsequent support zone appears around $1.30, where market participants may seek entry opportunities.

Institutional Capital Continues Flowing Into XRP Products

Contrary to the subdued price performance, institutional capital continues entering XRP-focused investment vehicles. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded $12.57 million in aggregate inflows through Thursday, representing the third consecutive week of net positive flows.

Total cumulative inflows have now climbed to $1.39 billion, with assets under management reaching $1.15 billion. Thursday’s trading session alone contributed $8.8 million in net inflows, extending the streak of positive ETF flows to 12 consecutive days.

U.S.-based spot XRP ETFs currently control approximately 1.34% of the token’s circulating supply. Throughout May, these investment products have absorbed roughly $107.3 million worth of XRP.

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Simultaneously, XRP holdings on Binance decreased from a May peak of 2.78 billion tokens to 2.74 billion. Declining exchange balances typically signal bullish sentiment, as it indicates investors are transferring assets to private wallets rather than positioning for sales.

On-Chain Metrics Reveal Growing Network Participation

Blockchain analytics revealed a notable increase in XRP Ledger engagement on May 20. The network registered 4,300 newly created wallets during a single 24-hour window — representing 2026’s fourth-largest daily expansion according to Santiment data. Concurrently, daily active addresses surged from 32,000 to 43,520.

Analyst Amonyx highlighted this development, questioning whether it might signal a potential trend reversal. Santiment emphasized that “network growth is among the top leading signals to identify reversals.” Fellow analyst Niroshan682 observed that wallet proliferation frequently precedes broader network adoption, particularly when accompanied by strengthening ETF demand and institutional participation.

However, overhead resistance zones continue limiting upside potential. According to Glassnode cost-basis analysis, investors currently hold approximately 3.75 billion XRP at average acquisition prices between $1.37 and $1.45. This concentration could generate selling pressure as the token approaches break-even levels.

An additional resistance barrier exists between $1.68 and $1.70, where roughly 3.8 billion XRP was accumulated. The token currently trades 62% below its July 2025 high of $3.66.

For bullish momentum to materialize, XRP must decisively clear the $1.40–$1.55 range to validate a breakout from its current consolidation pattern. Thursday’s $8.8 million ETF inflow represents the most encouraging data point amid an otherwise range-bound trading week.

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Chinese Economy Is Booming, But Stock Markets Haven’t Recovered in 20 Years

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Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) Performance

The Shanghai Composite closed Friday near 4,113 points, still about 33% below its 2007 peak, even as China’s nominal output has expanded roughly sevenfold over the same two-decade stretch.

The US benchmark has delivered upward of 600% in total returns over that period, exposing a structural gap between China’s real economy and the prices its listed companies command.

Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) Performance
Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) Performance. Source: TradingView

China Sees Booming Economy, Stagnant Index

China posted a record $1.19 trillion trade surplus in 2025 and grew GDP by 5% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

It has also overtaken Japan as the world’s largest auto exporter and continues to dominate global manufacturing.

Yet listed firms have not turned that production base into compounding shareholder value.

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Final household consumption sits at 53% of GDP, compared with roughly 68% in the United States, capping the corporate earnings that drive equity indices higher.

Retail Flows and Frozen Household Wealth

Retail traders generate close to 90% of daily turnover on mainland exchanges, compared with about 20% in the United States.

That thin institutional base produces sharp directional moves around policy signals rather than steady capital formation, pushing some toward Bitcoin (BTC) during the Chinese stock market downturn.

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Property compounds the drag. Beijing’s 2020 Three Red Lines policy triggered the collapse of Evergrande and pushed home prices in real terms back toward 2005 levels.

With about 70% of household wealth tied to real estate, more Chinese savers are now repricing luxury property and holding cash.

AI Rally Cut Short

The AI cycle was the first independent catalyst in years. DeepSeek’s R1 release in early 2025 added roughly $1.3 trillion in tech market cap before the China Securities Regulatory Commission demanded that listed firms and ETF managers disclose AI revenue inside 20 business days.

DeepSeek then launched its 1.6 trillion-parameter V4 model in April 2026 on Huawei Ascend processors, with reverberations across crypto miners and Nvidia.

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The market reaction was muted. The CSRC also moved this week against brokerages Tiger, Futu, and Longbridge over cross-border trading, alongside China’s longstanding crypto ban on retail access.

Goldman Sachs forecasts another 10% drop in home prices before the property market bottoms, suggesting household balance sheets stay frozen into 2027.

Local government debt has also climbed to roughly $18.9 trillion, limiting Beijing’s room to stimulate further.

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Until that flips, the gap between China’s economy and its equity benchmark is likely to persist.

The post Chinese Economy Is Booming, But Stock Markets Haven’t Recovered in 20 Years appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Stock Soars to Record Peak as Elliott Expands Position

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HPE Stock Card

Key Highlights

  • Shares of HPE reached a record peak of $34.82 before settling around $35.10, with market capitalization at $45.07 billion
  • The company’s stock has climbed approximately 98% in the past twelve months
  • Elliott Investment Management expanded its position to more than 27.4 million shares, representing approximately $927 million in value
  • During Q1 2026, Elliott completely divested from Bill Holdings and Sensata Technologies
  • Evercore ISI maintains an Outperform rating with a $40 price objective for HPE

Shares of Hewlett Packard Enterprise reached a record peak of $34.82 during trading on May 22, subsequently climbing to $35.10. This performance represents an impressive gain of approximately 98% compared to the previous year.


HPE Stock Card
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company, HPE

This record achievement coincides with Elliott Investment Management revealing a substantial expansion of its HPE holdings. The prominent activist hedge fund increased its position from 18.6 million shares to 27.4 million shares during the first quarter of 2026. At Wednesday’s closing price of $33.80, this holding represents approximately $927 million in value.

Elliott initially established its HPE position in 2024. The investment firm has gained recognition for its activist involvement with major corporations such as Starbucks and Southwest Airlines.

Portfolio Restructuring at Elliott

While expanding its HPE holdings, Elliott executed several complete exits during the identical quarter. The firm liquidated its remaining 3 million shares in Bill Holdings and eliminated its entire 3.25 million share stake in Sensata Technologies.

Elliott had advocated for strategic changes at both enterprises. At Sensata, the firm secured a board position following the CEO’s departure in April 2024.

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Norwegian Cruise Line emerged as a fresh addition to Elliott’s holdings. The firm announced an economic interest exceeding 10% in NCLH during February and acquired 13.19 million shares in Q1. As of Wednesday, this holding was valued above $445 million, constituting roughly a 2.9% ownership stake.

Elliott maintained unchanged positions in PepsiCo, Equinix, and Phillips 66.

Analyst Perspectives and Corporate Strategy

Wall Street analysts have shown increasing optimism toward HPE. Bernstein elevated its price objective to $35, citing growing demand for conventional servers linked to artificial intelligence workloads.

Evercore ISI adopted a more bullish stance, increasing its target to $40 while maintaining an Outperform rating. This revision followed HPE’s transaction involving the sale of a 13.8% ownership stake in H3C Technologies to Chinese purchasers for approximately $986.8 million.

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Prior to this partial divestiture, HPE maintained a 19% stake in H3C.

The enterprise has simultaneously been broadening its distribution capabilities. Both Ingram Micro and TD SYNNEX received appointments as worldwide distributors to facilitate the delivery of HPE’s networking, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence product lines to channel partners.

Activist investor Irenic Capital has similarly established a position in the company and has engaged in direct discussions with HPE leadership.

InvestingPro data indicates HPE is trading close to its 52-week peak, although their analysis suggests the stock may be overvalued at present price levels.

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Reelrush wants to turn every viral moment into a tradable market

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Binance adds news features to Binance Junior to increase family crypto savings and learning

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Reelrush introduces Social Launchpad on Solana, blending short-form content with on-chain markets and a trade-to-earn model.

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Summary

  • Reelrush is a Solana-based social platform that combines short-form video, text posting, and on-chain trading through a built-in “Trade” feature on every post.
  • Users log in with an X account, get an embedded wallet automatically, and can launch token markets tied to content in seconds via an AI-assisted process.
  • Each creator earns a small trading fee share, while markets start on a bonding curve and migrate to full DEX liquidity once they reach $7,000 market cap.

A video hits a million views on TikTok in under an hour. The creator gets a badge. The audience gets dopamine. The platform keeps the money. Reelrush is built around a different proposition: what if the audience could buy in instead of just watch?

That’s the core pitch of the Social Launchpad, a platform that merges short-video and real-time text posting with on-chain markets; with everything running on Solana. Reelrush is a product that deliberately feels familiar. Anyone who has used X for posting and TikTok for video already knows most of the interface. The unfamiliar part is the Trade button sitting at the bottom of every piece of content.

What it actually is

Reelrush is a social network with a built-in token launchpad. Users sign in with an existing X account. This means there no new identity to construct, no follower count to rebuild from scratch. The platform imports the user’s existing X follow graph on first login, which solves the empty-room problem that tends to kill new social apps before they get started.

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Once signed in, an embedded Solana wallet is created in the background. Users don’t see a seed phrase or install a browser extension. They just see a balance. The technical layer is invisible by design.

The content model covers both sides of what dominates the internet right now. There’s a vertical video feed with full TikTok-style playback, and a parallel text feed for short posts, replies, reposts, and quotes — up to 500 characters. Every reel and every post carries the same action row: Reply, Repost, Like, Share, and Trade. That last option is the only one that doesn’t exist on X or TikTok.

Launching a market takes ten seconds

Tapping Launch on any piece of content that doesn’t yet have a market triggers a fast, automated process. An AI model reads the caption, hashtags, and video subject, then suggests a ticker and name. The platform funds and signs the creation transaction using the embedded wallet and returns a live market in under two seconds.

The creator who launched the market earns 0.5% of every trade made against it, automatically, forever and without claiming, without running anything, or without holding the token. The other 0.5% goes to the protocol treasury.

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Every market starts on Meteora’s Dynamic Bonding Curve on Solana, where price moves as a function of buying and selling activity. No order book, no market maker needed. When a market reaches a $7,000 market capitalization, it migrates automatically to a full Meteora liquidity pool, at which point the token shows up on Jupiter and other DEX aggregators and can be traded from any wallet, not just from within Reelrush.

This two-stage structure is worth paying attention to. The bonding curve phase acts as a buffer against the instant rug-pull dynamic that makes a lot of early meme token markets difficult to take seriously. Successful markets earn their way to broader liquidity rather than starting there.

The feed isn’t purely a pump board

Reelrush’s “For You” algorithm combines velocity (views, watch-through rate, likes in the last 60 minutes), social (how many people in a user’s follow graph have engaged, and how close the author is to them), and market (buy pressure and holder growth on the attached token). The weights are personalized and retuned daily.

Importantly, the ranking isn’t dominated by market activity alone. A video with heavy buy pressure but low watch-through gets suppressed. A video with strong engagement and no market attached still surfaces. That balance matters if the platform is going to function as a social product rather than just a speculative leaderboard.

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A few things to keep in mind

Reelrush is still in its early stages. The current roadmap puts the public launch, per-reel coins, and embedded wallets in Q2 2026, with profiles, follows, and DMs following in Q3. Holder-gated chat — a real-time channel visible only to current token holders — is slated for Q4. The project’s whitepaper honestly says that tokens attached to content can and frequently will fall to zero, and trading is highly speculative.

The concept, however, is harder to dismiss than most early-stage crypto social projects. Short video and real-time text are two of the most dominant content formats on the internet right now. The short video market size currently sits at $2.17 billion in 2026, and is expected to reach &3.37 billion by 2031. Solana’s throughput makes sub-second, low-cost settlement realistic. The gap Reelrush is trying to close — between the cultural moments that move markets and the markets themselves — is real.

Whether a single tap can bridge that gap at scale is the question the platform’s 2026 rollout will have to answer.

For more information about Reelrush, visit the official website, and read the whitepaper.

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Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.

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SEC Approves Nasdaq Bitcoin Index Options

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SEC Approves Nasdaq Bitcoin Index Options

The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved Nasdaq’s proposal to list cash-settled Bitcoin index options on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange.

The options are European-style contracts tied to the Nasdaq Bitcoin Index, a benchmark that tracks one one-hundredth of the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index, which updates with data from major cryptocurrency exchanges every 200 milliseconds. The approval was granted on an accelerated basis and published Friday on the SEC’s website.

The new contracts are cash-settled, meaning holders receive the difference between the Bitcoin spot price and the strike price at expiration. Unlike options on spot Bitcoin ETFs, there is no physical Bitcoin involved and no risk of early assignment, offering traders an alternative way to bet on the price of the cryptocurrency.

Source: SEC

The contracts will trade under the ticker QBTC on Phlx, with a minimum increment of $0.01 and a position limit of 24,000 contracts per side, equivalent to roughly 0.12% of Bitcoin’s outstanding supply, the SEC noted in its order.

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Related: $1.26B Bitcoin ETF outflows spark ‘contrarian’ buy signal: Santiment

CFTC approval still needed

Despite the SEC green light, the options cannot begin trading until the Commodity Futures Trading Commission grants its own exemptive relief due to Bitcoin’s classification as a commodity, which falls under the CFTC’s jurisdiction.

CME Group, which has offered Bitcoin futures options since 2020, filed a comment letter in October last year arguing the contracts fall under CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. In the filing, the SEC noted that Section 717 of the Dodd-Frank Act is not limited to “novel derivative products” and allows for concurrent jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC when the latter grants exemptive relief.

“The concept of shared jurisdiction between the Commission and the CFTC is not new,” the SEC wrote in the filing, citing existing examples such as mixed swaps and security futures.

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Related: Nasdaq and S&P 500 Closed At Record Highs as Tech Stocks Rallied

SEC grows more crypto-friendly

The SEC, under Chairman Paul Atkins, is moving toward a more crypto-friendly regulatory posture. Atkins has moved to drop several high-profile enforcement cases against crypto firms that were initiated under the previous administration, and has publicly called for clearer regulatory frameworks that encourage innovation rather than stifle it.

As Cointelegraph reported, the agency is preparing an “innovation exemption” that would allow blockchain-based tokenized trading of public company shares on decentralized crypto platforms, even without the consent of the companies being tracked.

Magazine: Guide to the top and emerging global crypto hubs — Mid-2026

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Bitcoin liquidations hit $320M on SEC stock news

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Microsoft stock plunges 11% as Bitcoin traders seek refuge amid broader tech selloff

Bitcoin liquidations surpassed $320 million in longs on May 22 after the SEC unexpectedly delayed its tokenized stock plan.

Summary

  • Crypto markets saw $320 million in long liquidations on May 22, with longs accounting for roughly $296 million of the total according to CoinGlass data.
  • The SEC delayed a plan to grant broad exemptions for US crypto firms to trade tokenized assets linked to US stocks, Bloomberg reported on May 22.
  • Bitcoin fell toward $76,000 following the news, extending a week of sustained selling pressure and a six-session Bitcoin ETF outflow streak.

The SEC delayed a plan on May 22 to provide broad exemptions for US crypto firms to trade tokenized assets linked to US stocks. The agency’s staff had been preparing to release an innovation exemption for tokenized stocks as soon as this week, according to people familiar with the matter.

The delay triggered a sharp move in derivatives markets. Crypto long positions worth approximately $320 million were liquidated in the hours following the announcement, with longs accounting for roughly $296 million of the total.

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Why the SEC tokenized stock delay hit long positions so hard

Leveraged long positioning had been building in anticipation of a regulatory green light for tokenized equities. When the exemption was pulled back, traders positioned for a near-term catalyst were forced to exit. Bitcoin fell toward $76,000 during the session, its lowest print in approximately a week.

The tokenized stock market is already active internationally. Exchanges outside the US offer US stock tokens to non-residents, giving offshore users exposure to Apple, Tesla, and other US equities via blockchain.

An SEC exemption would have opened US-registered platforms to the same product, unlocking a market analysts have estimated at multiple billions of dollars. Crypto.news has tracked the broader regulatory calendar pressure in 2026, with the Clarity Act, tokenized equity rules, and stablecoin legislation all competing for bandwidth simultaneously.

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What the SEC delay means for crypto market structure

The postponement continues a pattern of cautious regulatory movement on crypto market structure in 2026. Crypto.news has reported on the first May outflow event for Bitcoin ETFs earlier this month, which also coincided with regulatory uncertainty dampening market sentiment.

/The combined effect of ETF outflows and derivative liquidations reflects a market that had positioned more optimistically than the regulatory environment warranted. The Bitcoin (BTC) price page tracks live movements as the market digests the SEC’s delay and positions for what comes next on tokenized equities.

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Kevin Warsh Becomes Fed Chair After Unanimous FOMC Vote

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US Regulators Move on Prediction Markets With ETF Pause and NHL Pact

Kevin Warsh formally assumed the role of Federal Reserve Chair, taking the oath of office and receiving unanimous backing from the Federal Open Market Committee.

Warsh steps into the position as inflation remains elevated and the FOMC faces internal division. The Fed has held rates at 3.50%–3.75% through its most recent meeting. The White House has grown critical of the central bank’s cautious posture.

A Confirmation Built on Narrow Margins

The Senate confirmation vote passed 54-45 this month, the narrowest approval margin for any Fed chair in US history. President Donald Trump nominated Warsh on March 4, 2026. His term as chair runs through May 2030, with his board seat extending to January 2040.

Warsh previously served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 under Chair Ben Bernanke. During the 2008 crisis, he helped coordinate the Bear Stearns sale to JPMorgan Chase, the Lehman Brothers proceedings, and the AIG rescue. After departing the board, he spent years as a fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution before returning to private finance.

Jerome Powell will remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors after stepping down as chair, having served in the role since 2018.

Policy Priorities and What to Expect Under Warsh

Warsh has pledged to serve as a “strictly independent” chair, pushing back against Trump’s repeated calls for lower borrowing costs. He supports a smaller Fed balance sheet and a narrower institutional mandate. He has also called for stricter limits on public communications from Fed officials about the rate path.

His crypto and AI financial disclosures revealed personal stakes in stablecoin project Basis and crypto asset manager Bitwise. However, Warsh has argued that Bitcoin (BTC) is too volatile to serve as a medium of exchange.

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With US PPI reaching 6% in April, markets are closely watching the Fed’s current rate pause. Warsh’s first FOMC meeting will be the first real test of his independence from Trump.

The post Kevin Warsh Becomes Fed Chair After Unanimous FOMC Vote appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitcoin Sees New Monthly Low, Ethereum Dips to $2K: Weekend Watch

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After it was rejected at $78,000 earlier this week, bitcoin’s troubles worsened with a nosedive to a monthly low of just over $74,000, where it finally found some support.

Most altcoins have followed suit on the way down, with ETH dipping to $2,000 today, BNB going down to $640, and XRP sliding to $1.31.

BTC Charts Monthly Low

The progress made on the CLARITY Act at the end of the previous week resulted in an impressive but short-lived BTC price pump that drove the asset to $82,000. However, it was almost immediately rejected at that level for the second time that week, but this correction has been a lot more painful.

The cryptocurrency first slipped to $79,000 by that Friday before it dropped to $78,000 during the weekend. The business week began on the wrong foot with a nosedive to $76,000. After it bounced to $78,000 on Tuesday and Wednesday, the bears stepped up on the gas pedal once again and didn’t allow a more impressive rebound.

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Just the opposite; bitcoin dropped to $76,000 yesterday evening and kept plunging on Saturday to $75,000 at first and then to $74,200 minutes ago. The latter became BTC’s lowest price point in just over a month. Here are some possible reasons for its $8,000 drop in less than 10 days.

For now, its market capitalization has dumped below $1.5 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts has retreated slightly to 58%.

BTCUSD May 23. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD May 23. Source: TradingView

Alts Bleed Out

As mentioned above, bitcoin’s correction is not an isolated case. Essentially, the entire larger-cap altcoin field is in the red today. Ethereum dipped to $2,000 earlier today before it jumped slightly to $2,025 as of now. BNB is down to $640, XRP struggles to remain above $1.30, while SOL has plunged by over 6%.

Similar or more painful declines come from DOGE, HYPE, ZEC, ADA, BCH, LINK, SUI, and many others.

The cumulative market cap of all crypto assets has shed $100 billion since Thursday and is down to $2.570 trillion on CoinGecko.

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Cryptocurrency Market Overview May 23. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview May 23. Source: QuantifyCrypto

The post Bitcoin Sees New Monthly Low, Ethereum Dips to $2K: Weekend Watch appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reach $1.26B, Contrarian Buy Signal, Santiment

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Crypto Breaking News

US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged more than $1 billion in net outflows over the past week, intensifying a notable flow dynamic that traders are watching for clues about the price trajectory of the world’s largest cryptocurrency. In a Friday briefing, crypto sentiment platform Santiment framed these withdrawals as a potential buying signal, arguing the pattern may represent a healthy market reset rather than a straightforward bearish turning point.

Bitcoin was trading around $75,410 at the time of writing, after hitting as high as $79,052 on May 16, according to CoinMarketCap.

Key takeaways

  • Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows exceed $1 billion over the last trading week, with six sessions contributing to a total of about $1.26 billion in net withdrawals across 11 funds, per Farside data.
  • Santiment describes the flows as a counter-indicator, noting that ETFs largely reflect retail conviction rather than smart-money positioning and may presage patient accumulation.
  • Bitcoin’s price sits near $75.4k, having briefly tested higher levels in mid-May, underscoring a dissonance between flow signals and near-term price moves.
  • Analysts expect ETF inflows to push past previous record levels, with James Seyffart citing roughly $60 billion in inflows since the ETF launch and indicating more products are on the way.
  • The market remains split on how to interpret ETF flows: a bearish signal for some, a potential setup for long-term holders and accumulators for others.

Santiment’s counter-indicator thesis on ETF outflows

Santiment argues that the current outflow regime from spot Bitcoin ETFs may represent a healthy market reset rather than a loss of confidence. In its Friday report, the analytics firm pointed out that ETF movements often align with retail sentiment, which can overshoot in both directions. The authors noted that sustained ETF outflows have historically correlated with conditions favorable for patient accumulation rather than panic selling, suggesting a potential setup for stronger demand once prices stabilize.

To illustrate the current dynamic, Santiment highlighted that retail investors appeared to be growing impatient after Bitcoin failed to sustain a move above $80,000 in May. The firm’s takeaway is that the outflows could be resetting the market’s price discovery process, creating opportunities for longer-term participants who can time entries with greater discipline.

For context, data tracked by Farside shows that the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.26 billion in net outflows over the last five days across six trading sessions, underscoring a persistent trend rather than a one-off event. These figures contribute to a broader debate about whether ETF flows are a reliable barometer of demand or simply a reflection of shifting retail appetite.

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Price action and the outflow narrative

Bitcoin’s price action in the near term remains a point of contention. While the current price sits in the mid-$70k range, the mid-May spike above $79,000 underscored a potential decoupling between ETF flow signals and immediate price gains. The prevailing narrative in the broader crypto industry has often treated repeated ETF outflows as a bearish signal that retail sentiment is waning. Santiment’s perspective, however, offers a counterpoint: if outflows are concentrated among retail-oriented instruments, the result could be a more resilient base of holders primed to accumulate on dips.

Observers will want to monitor whether the outflow pattern abates or accelerates in the coming weeks, and how price reacts as new ETF products enter the market. The mixed interpretation underscores a wider theme in crypto markets: structural products can influence price discovery, but their implications are not universally agreed upon and may hinge on the behavior of different participant cohorts.

Looking ahead: ETF inflows and the path to new records

On the bullish side, market-watchers have begun revisiting the ceiling of ETF-driven inflows. James Seyffart, an ETF analyst, contends that the sector has already clawed back most of the roughly $9 billion in outflows recorded between October and February. Speaking on Michael van de Poppe’s YouTube show, he estimated that total inflows since the ETFs’ launch sit near $60 billion and suggested the pace could push past prior all-time highs as more products enter the market.

“We’re around $60 billion in inflows since the ETFs’ launch. So, we’re almost at that all-time high peak,” Seyffart said, adding that additional ETF launches are on the horizon. The prospect of higher inflows could offer a counterpoint to the narrative of sustained retail weakness, particularly if inflows begin to outpace outflows in the coming months.

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As this dynamic unfolds, investors are left to weigh the reliability of ETF flow signals against real-time price action and macro risk sentiment. The broader debate—whether ETF outflows portend stronger downside or set the stage for a durable rebuying phase—remains unsettled, but the flow data clearly remains a key focal point for traders and portfolio managers.

Related coverage: SEC signals nuance around tokenized assets and the regulatory landscape for innovative exchange-traded products continue to evolve, a factor that market participants will watch closely as new vehicles seek regulatory clarity and market access.

Watch next for continued updates on ETF flow momentum, the arrival of new spot Bitcoin ETFs, and how price action responds as liquidity dynamics evolve. As always, the coming weeks will test whether this period of outflows translates into a more favorable terrain for long-term holders or reinforces a renewed phase of volatility.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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ETH Smart Money Flow Index Shows Net Inflow Amid Bearish ETF Outflow Trend

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • The ETH Smart Money Flow Index recorded an 18% net inflow rise over seven days despite bearish ETF data.
  • Large non-exchange ETH wallet cohorts net-added ETH across nine of the last twelve trading sessions.
  • The same cohort bridged ETH to Hyperliquid and Base during the May 14 dip, signaling repositioning not selling.
  • This accumulation pattern mirrors October 2023 wallet behavior, which preceded ETH’s move from $1,500 to $4,100.

The ETH Smart Money Flow Index has recorded an 18% net inflow rise over seven days, even as ETF outflows mount. This divergence is drawing attention from on-chain analysts tracking large wallet behavior.

While exchange data and ETF metrics point toward capitulation, a separate layer of on-chain activity tells a different story.

The contrast between these two data streams is reshaping how some analysts interpret current ETH market conditions.

Large Wallet Cohorts Net-Buy ETH During Price Decline

ETH lost its $2,200 support level recently, triggering widespread bearish sentiment across the market. ETF outflows totaled $431.86 million across eight sessions between May 11 and May 20. Public dashboards broadly reflected capitulation signals during that same stretch.

However, Alphractal posted on X that the Smart Money Flow Index told a different story. The metric tracks the largest non-exchange ETH wallet cohorts and monitors where they route liquidity on-chain. According to the post, these wallets net-added ETH in nine of the last twelve sessions.

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This metric does not read ETF wrappers or aggregate exchange balances. Instead, it focuses on wallet-level activity from cohorts historically tied to large ETH price moves. That distinction separates it from most publicly available tracking tools.

The same cohort also began bridging ETH to Hyperliquid and Base during the May 14 dip. This movement suggests repositioning rather than outright selling, which differs from what exchange flow data currently shows.

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On-Chain Repositioning Mirrors a Pattern Seen in October 2023

Alphractal noted that this behavior mirrors a pattern the same cohort displayed in October 2023. At that time, these wallets accumulated ETH before the asset moved from $1,500 to $4,100. The current setup is drawing comparisons to that earlier accumulation phase.

The post stated that stacking ETF outflow data alongside Smart Money Flow data produces a clearer picture. Retail investors and ETF allocators appear to be selling below $2,200. Meanwhile, the cohort tied to previous cycle bottoms continues to absorb that supply.

No single metric is sufficient for reading ETH market structure accurately. ETF outflows appear bearish in isolation, while Smart Money Flow reads bullish on its own. Combining both layers reveals the divergence between surface-level sentiment and deeper on-chain activity.

Alphractal stopped short of predicting an immediate price rally. The post clarified that the takeaway is about net buying behavior, not a short-term price call. The divergence between front-page narratives and wallet cohort activity remains the central point of the analysis.

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Prediction Market Giants Polymarket and Kalshi Face Congressional Insider Trading Investigation

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • James Comer, Chairman of the House Oversight Committee, issued formal letters to Polymarket and Kalshi executives requesting comprehensive documentation related to potential insider trading violations.
  • Investigators identified more than 80 questionably timed wagers on Polymarket preceding American military strikes targeting Iran, exhibiting an extraordinary 98% success rate.
  • Federal prosecutors charged a member of the US Army with criminal offenses for purportedly leveraging confidential military intelligence to generate profits exceeding $400,000 through Polymarket wagers involving Venezuela.
  • The Committee Chairman indicated potential legislative action to prohibit congressional members and federal employees from participating in prediction market platforms.
  • Industry analysts from Bernstein project prediction market transaction volumes reached $51 billion throughout 2025, with forecasts suggesting $240 billion for 2026.

James Comer, who chairs the House Oversight Committee, is requesting comprehensive internal documentation from executives at two prominent prediction market platforms amid growing concerns that individuals with access to classified government information may be exploiting it for financial gain.

Correspondence dispatched on Friday to Shayne Coplan, Chief Executive of Polymarket, and Tarek Mansour, who leads Kalshi, requested comprehensive information regarding each platform’s user verification procedures, geographical access controls, and systems for detecting abnormal betting patterns.

“Concerns have emerged that congressional representatives, administration officials, and any category of federal employee could leverage privileged insider information to generate substantial returns on government-related prediction markets,” Comer stated during an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box.

The investigation focuses on over 80 transactions identified as suspiciously coordinated with the timing of United States military operations directed at Iran. A May 13 investigation by The New York Times documented multiple instances involving wagers related to Israeli military actions against Iran, a ceasefire announcement from Trump, and political election markets.

Nicolas Vaiman, who co-founded the blockchain intelligence platform Bubblemaps, revealed that his research team discovered 80 Polymarket transactions achieving a 98% profitability rate. “Pure chance cannot account for such consistent winning outcomes,” he stated.

Military Personnel Indicted for Classified Information Misuse

This congressional investigation emerged following criminal indictment proceedings initiated in April against Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke of the United States Army. Federal prosecutors contend he exploited classified intelligence obtained from a military operation connected to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, generating more than $400,000 in profits through Polymarket event contract trading.

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Van Dyke entered a not guilty plea to multiple charges, including commodities fraud and unauthorized disclosure of confidential governmental information. He secured release following posting of $250,000 bail.

Both prediction market platforms rejected the allegations and defended their practices. Polymarket emphasized it “operates a thorough market integrity system” and pledged full cooperation with congressional investigators. Kalshi expressed pride in its “extensive safeguards preventing insider trading” and committed to working with legislative authorities.

Senate Investigation Compounds Pressure

The House inquiry emerged merely 48 hours following a Senate Commerce Committee session during which legislators across party lines questioned prediction market platform representatives. Ted Cruz, chairing the Senate Commerce Committee, condemned the industry for facilitating cheating incidents within sports betting, while Senator John Hickenlooper accused these companies of predatory marketing tactics aimed at younger demographics through social media channels.

Polymarket revised its insider trading prevention protocols in March. Kalshi prohibited three American political candidates from its platform in April after they wagered on their own electoral contests.

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Comer announced he may introduce legislative proposals specifically prohibiting congressional members, executive branch personnel, and additional government workers from engaging with prediction market platforms.

According to research published by Wall Street firm Bernstein, prediction market trading volumes attained $51 billion during 2025, with projections indicating potential growth to $240 billion throughout 2026. Industry analysts forecast the sector could expand to approximately $1 trillion in total value by 2030.

Vaiman cautioned that irregular trading patterns detectable by independent researchers remain equally visible to foreign adversaries of the United States, creating national security vulnerabilities extending beyond standard financial oversight considerations.

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