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US Stocks Climb on AI Boom as Bitcoin Weakness Deepens

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US Stocks Climb on AI Boom as Bitcoin Weakness Deepens

US equities rebounded as the S&P 500 climbed to $6,976, before correcting. Earlier in the week, the benchmark index closed just shy of its prior record before briefly moving higher in subsequent trading, while risk appetite in equities contrasted sharply with continued weakness across crypto markets.

At the same time, Bitcoin continued to underperform, with selling pressure accelerating as broader capital flows favored traditional risk assets. The divergence has become more pronounced in recent sessions, reinforcing the growing split between equity and crypto sentiment.

S&P 500 Year-to-Date Chart

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AI Stocks and Small Caps Drive Equity Momentum

The latest leg higher in the S&P 500 was led by large-cap technology and semiconductor stocks, as investors rotated back into AI-linked names after a brief pause driven by valuation concerns. 

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Alphabet rose to a new record, Amazon advanced ahead of earnings, and chipmakers posted broad-based gains as demand expectations firmed.

Beneath the surface, market breadth also improved. Small-cap stocks outpaced megacaps, with the Russell 2000 gaining around 3% year-to-date. 

That relative strength is often interpreted as a signal of confidence in domestic growth and has added support to broader stock market predictions that point to continued upside as long as earnings momentum holds.

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Earnings, Not Valuations, Now Anchor the Rally

Corporate results remain the central driver of the market’s advance. Analysts now expect S&P 500 companies to deliver close to 11% earnings growth for the December quarter, up sharply from estimates earlier in January. 

More than 80% of reporting firms have exceeded expectations so far, according to FactSet data cited by market strategists.

Recent research suggests earnings growth has accounted for roughly 84% of total S&P 500 returns in the current cycle, marking a shift away from multiple expansion as the primary engine of gains. This transition has softened concerns around an AI-driven bubble, as profits and cash flow increasingly justify higher prices.

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Macro Backdrop Keeps Risk Appetite Intact

The broader macro environment has so far supported equity risk-taking. US GDP growth remains near 3.3%, inflation trends are relatively contained, and productivity indicators have improved. Even political disruptions, including a federal government shutdown that delayed key data releases, failed to dent market confidence materially.

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Major US indices posted solid gains alongside the S&P 500, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 1% YTD. But the Nasdaq Composite dropped roughly 2.6%. 

Dow Jones Year-To-Date Chart

Investors now look ahead to upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s next policy signals for confirmation that financial conditions will remain supportive.

Bitcoin Weakness Highlights Cross-Market Divergence

While equities pushed higher, crypto markets moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin price dropped below $65,000, marking its lowest level in roughly a year and extending a broader downtrend that has weighed on digital assets. 

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The decline has come amid fading momentum, reduced speculative appetite, and capital rotation toward equities offering visible earnings growth.

The contrasting performance reflects a growing divergence between traditional risk assets and crypto, at least in the near term. 

While both markets can benefit from liquidity-driven rallies, current conditions favor assets tied more directly to corporate profits.

Bitcoin 7-Day Price Chart. Source: Coincodex

Outlook

The S&P 500’s move to new highs reflects a rally increasingly grounded in earnings delivery rather than expanding valuations. AI investment, small-cap strength, and resilient macro data continue to support the upside case, even as record levels invite selective caution.

Bitcoin’s slide to a one-year low highlights where risk appetite is thinning, but for now, equity markets remain firmly in control of the broader risk narrative.

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Solana (SOL) Price Analysis: Can Bulls Push Toward $102? Technical Breakdown

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Solana (SOL) Price

Key Takeaways

  • A bearish reversal requires SOL to fall beneath $88.57—this hasn’t occurred yet.
  • The $82–$86 zone shows robust buying activity, supported by Fibonacci levels.
  • Price rejection occurred near $92.70, with resistance concentrated between $91–$94.
  • Breaking above the $94–$96 threshold could propel SOL toward $98 and beyond.
  • Major compliance firm Elliptic has partnered with Solana’s Developer Platform, bringing enterprise-grade tools used by Mastercard, Worldpay, and Western Union.

Solana continues defending a critical support area as market participants monitor a tight price corridor that may determine the asset’s upcoming trajectory. Multiple technical formations indicate indecision, while fresh institutional collaboration strengthens the network’s infrastructure.

Solana (SOL) Price
Solana (SOL) Price

The token has been trading within the $82 to $86 bracket, a zone that aligns with key Fibonacci retracement markers and an ascending trendline. This convergence indicates persistent demand at these price points. Following successful defense of this area, a consolidation pattern has emerged.

The subsequent upward movement from this foundation displayed an A-B-C corrective wave formation visible on shorter timeframes. Such patterns generally indicate consolidation rather than trend reversal. While this maintains bullish potential, it stops short of confirming directional commitment.

$91–$94 Zone Acts as Ceiling

During recent attempts to climb higher, SOL encountered significant selling pressure. The $91–$94 area features clustered Fibonacci resistance levels creating a formidable barrier. Price rejection around $92.70 demonstrated continued seller presence at these elevations.

Should this overhead resistance persist, expect potential retracement toward $85 or marginally lower to absorb liquidity. This wouldn’t compromise the overarching structure unless price action breaches $88.57—the critical threshold analysts identify as confirming bearish control.

Conversely, decisive movement above the $94–$96 region would shift technical dynamics. Such a breakthrough would negate the corrective interpretation and establish pathways toward $98 or higher targets.

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The SOL/BTC trading pair reveals encouraging developments. Daily timeframe analysis shows the pair challenging horizontal resistance while maintaining position above an upward-sloping trendline. The Relative Strength Index demonstrates upward momentum and recently crossed above its signal line, indicating strengthening performance against Bitcoin.

Weekly chart examination places SOL near the lower boundary of a widening wedge formation. Maintaining this support level is crucial. Failure would suggest extended downside risk, while successful defense preserves recovery possibilities within the pattern.

Major Compliance Integration Announced

Beyond technical considerations, Solana secured an important infrastructure advancement. Elliptic has been designated as the official compliance partner for Solana’s Developer Platform.

This platform provides developers with unified access to construct financial applications including tokenized deposits, stablecoin payment systems, and real-world asset infrastructure. Elliptic contributes integrated wallet screening capabilities, transaction surveillance, and comprehensive risk assessment tools.

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Notable organizations already utilizing the platform include payment giants Mastercard, Worldpay, and Western Union.

Currently, SOL must maintain support above $88.57 to preserve existing technical formation, while the $91–$94 region remains the critical area monitoring for potential breakout scenarios.

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Google accelerates quantum safe encryption timeline to 2029

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Gemini shows how deeply Google’s AI is wiring into U.S. military power

Google has set 2029 as its target to roll out post-quantum cryptography across its products, adding a firm deadline to a risk that has moved closer in recent years. 

Summary

  • Google sets 2029 deadline for post quantum cryptography amid faster progress in quantum computing hardware
  • Ethereum plans protocol level quantum resistance while Bitcoin community remains divided on urgency and approach
  • Solana introduces quantum resistant vaults but requires users to shift funds into specialized wallet structures

The company linked that timeline to faster gains in quantum hardware, better error correction, and new estimates on how quickly current encryption could become vulnerable.

Google said the industry should move sooner rather than later as quantum computing advances continue. The company stated that current cryptographic standards used for encryption and digital signatures will not remain safe forever.

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In its update, Google said

”Quantum computers will pose a threat to current cryptographic standards.” 

It also said post-quantum migration is needed so users can continue to rely on secure authentication services across its products.

The 2029 timeline marks the first time Google has attached a clear migration target to its post-quantum work. That date arrives earlier than some estimates for Q-Day, the point when quantum machines could break widely used public-key encryption.

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Google said it wants to set a public example for other companies and institutions. The company added, ”It’s our responsibility to lead by example and share an ambitious timeline,” while calling for wider action across the industry.

Moreover, the push toward quantum-safe systems is also gaining attention in crypto. The Ethereum Foundation launched a Post-Quantum Ethereum resource hub this week and said it wants protocol-level protections in place by 2029.

Ethereum’s plan focuses on securing the network against future quantum threats, with execution-layer work expected later. The effort reflects broader concern over how blockchains that rely on existing cryptographic systems may need upgrades over time.

Bitcoin and Solana show different approaches

Solana developers introduced a quantum-resistant vault in January 2025. The design uses hash-based signatures and creates a new key during each transaction, but users must move funds into special Winternitz vaults because the feature does not upgrade the full network.

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Bitcoin developers remain divided on timing and need. Blockstream chief executive Adam Back said quantum risks are overstated and that action is not needed for decades, while Ethan Heilman and other researchers backed BIP-360, a proposal that would add a new output type to reduce short-exposure quantum risks.

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Conflicting Iran Ceasefire Reports Leave Markets in Limbo as Bitcoin Climbs Past $71K

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin surged past the $71,000 threshold driven by Middle East de-escalation optimism boosting risk-on sentiment
  • Tehran dismissed Washington’s ceasefire initiative despite Trump’s claims, creating market confusion with contradictory messaging
  • American equity futures declined 0.4% during Wednesday’s evening session amid persistent geopolitical concerns
  • Crude oil retreated on peace prospects, with WTI closing at $90.32 and Brent finishing at $102.22
  • The United Kingdom prohibited cryptocurrency contributions to political organizations and limited foreign donations to £100,000 annually

The flagship cryptocurrency rallied past the $71,000 mark on Wednesday as market participants priced in potential de-escalation between Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran. By early evening Eastern Time, Bitcoin was trading at $71,129, representing a 1.1% gain.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

The week had started with the digital asset dipping beneath the $70,000 level following escalating tensions in the Middle East that prompted widespread liquidation across risky investments.

President Trump indicated on Tuesday that discussions were underway with Iranian officials, suggesting Tehran might be receptive to diplomatic resolution. Multiple sources reported that Washington had submitted a comprehensive 15-point framework designed to terminate hostilities.

However, Iran’s communications presented conflicting narratives. Fars News Agency stated that Tehran rejected any ceasefire arrangement, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi explicitly denied ongoing negotiations with American counterparts.

Iranian state media published five core requirements, including complete cessation of military operations and global acknowledgment of Tehran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Additional demands reportedly included dismantling all U.S. military installations throughout the Gulf region.

Despite public rejection, Axios sources indicated Washington had not yet received formal notification from Iran declining the proposal. The contradictory signals maintained markets in a state of tentative confidence.

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Oil prices declined Wednesday as energy traders factored in reduced supply disruption risks. West Texas Intermediate benchmark settled at $90.32 per barrel while Brent crude concluded trading at $102.22.

Equity Markets Navigate Geopolitical Turbulence

American stock index futures retreated 0.4% during Wednesday’s after-hours trading. Contracts tracking the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all registered downward movement as market participants maintained cautious positioning.

E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 26 (ES=F)
E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 26 (ES=F)

Notwithstanding the futures decline, primary equity benchmarks have accumulated weekly gains, positioning themselves to terminate a four-week consecutive downturn. Crude oil price fluctuations and economic contraction fears have persistently dampened consumer confidence.

Market observers are anticipating Thursday’s weekly unemployment insurance claims report. Carnival Corporation is scheduled to release quarterly results before Friday’s opening bell.

Britain Implements Cryptocurrency Political Contribution Prohibition

The United Kingdom instituted a prohibition on digital currency contributions to political organizations, taking effect Wednesday. Simultaneously, authorities established a £100,000 annual ceiling on overseas contributions from British nationals residing internationally.

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Housing Secretary Steve Reed explained the cryptocurrency restriction addresses a “clear pathway” enabling questionable funds to penetrate political operations. The regulation follows an investigation into foreign monetary influence, initiated after a former Reform UK representative received imprisonment for accepting illegal payments.

Reform UK, under Nigel Farage’s leadership, had pioneered Bitcoin acceptance among British political organizations. Approximately two-thirds of its previous year’s financial support originated from international contributors.

Most alternative cryptocurrencies appreciated Wednesday. Ethereum advanced 1% reaching $2,166, XRP increased 0.2% to $1.41, and Dogecoin climbed 1.5%.

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Bhutan’s Bitcoin (BTC) Fire Sale: $152M Dumped in 2026 and Counting

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Bhutan's Bitcoin (BTC) Fire Sale: $152M Dumped in 2026 and Counting

Key Takeaways

  • Bhutan moved 519.7 BTC valued at $36.75 million in its latest transaction on Wednesday
  • The kingdom has liquidated more than $152 million in Bitcoin so far in 2026
  • BTC reserves have plummeted 66% from approximately 13,000 BTC to just 4,453 BTC
  • Singapore’s QCP Capital receives most transfers through structured OTC deals
  • The nation’s 10,000 BTC commitment to Gelephu Mindfulness City appears impossible to fulfill

The Kingdom of Bhutan continues its systematic liquidation of Bitcoin holdings in 2026, with the selling momentum accelerating in recent weeks. Wednesday’s transaction saw the government transfer 519.7 BTC valued at $36.75 million to an external wallet, based on tracking data from Arkham Intelligence.

Bhutan’s cumulative Bitcoin disposals for 2026 have now surpassed the $152 million threshold.

The Himalayan nation accumulated its cryptocurrency treasury through government-operated hydroelectric mining facilities. With abundant renewable energy from surplus hydropower, mining costs were virtually negligible. This means every Bitcoin liquidation represents nearly 100% profit for the Royal Government.

At their zenith in late 2024, Bhutan’s Bitcoin reserves reached approximately 13,000 BTC. However, systematic outflows have dramatically reduced that position. Current holdings stand at merely 4,453 BTC—representing a staggering 66% decline from peak levels.

Source: Arkham

The liquidation campaign began conservatively. During January and February, individual transfers ranged from $5 million to $15 million. March witnessed a dramatic escalation, with transaction sizes ballooning to between $35 million and $45 million per movement.

The previous week marked the most intensive period of Bitcoin activity from Bhutan on record. A series of coordinated transfers moved approximately $72 million worth of Bitcoin within just seven days. The most substantial single transaction involved 595.8 BTC worth $44.44 million.

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Strategic OTC Liquidation Framework

QCP Capital, a Singapore-headquartered digital asset trading firm, has been the recipient of three distinct Bitcoin transfers from Bhutan this year, totaling approximately $16.6 million. The recurring pattern of transfers to this specific entity indicates a formal over-the-counter liquidation agreement.

OTC transactions enable large-scale holders to dispose of significant positions without directly impacting public exchange markets, thereby minimizing adverse price movements. Bhutan’s approach of segmenting sales into multiple transactions serves precisely this purpose.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Bitcoin has traded in a range of $65,000 to $75,000 throughout March, significantly below the near-$119,000 peaks witnessed earlier. At maximum valuation, Bhutan’s portfolio approached $1.88 billion. Today’s holdings are worth approximately $315 million.

Blockchain analysis reveals minimal to zero fresh Bitcoin entering Bhutan’s wallets from mining activities recently. This pattern suggests the kingdom may have reduced or completely suspended its mining operations following the latest Bitcoin halving event.

The Gelephu Commitment Conundrum

Last December, Bhutan unveiled its Bitcoin Development Pledge, committing up to 10,000 BTC toward financing the ambitious Gelephu Mindfulness City initiative. When announced, that allocation represented approximately $860 million in value.

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With current reserves sitting below 4,500 BTC, fulfilling the original 10,000 BTC pledge would require Bhutan to completely reverse its entire drawdown and acquire additional coins.

Wednesday’s 519.7 BTC transfer represents the latest chapter in what has evolved into an increasingly aggressive sovereign Bitcoin liquidation strategy throughout 2026.

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Bitcoin price drops below $70,000 after Iran truce buzz, Network Activity weakens

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Bitcoin price drops below $70,000 again
Bitcoin price drops below $70,000 again
  • Bitcoin price falls below $70,000 as network activity weakens.
  • Declining transactions and addresses signal lower demand.
  • Key support is at $69,400, while resistance stands near $71,600.

Bitcoin price today hit a daily low of $69,914.54 after soaring above $71,000 at the start of the week, following news of a truce proposal to Iran by US President Donald Trump.

The sudden pullback has pushed Bitcoin back below the $70,000 level, a psychological zone that traders often watch closely for signs of strength or weakness.

This decline did not happen in isolation, as the underlying data suggests that the broader network is also losing momentum.

Bitcoin Network Activity signals weakening demand

Recent on-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s Network Activity Index continues to trend downward, pointing to a steady cooling in user participation.

This index tracks a combination of key metrics that together reveal how actively the network is being used daily.

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Among these metrics are active addresses, which measure how many unique participants are sending or receiving Bitcoin.

A decline in active addresses often signals reduced interest or engagement from both retail users and larger players.

Transaction counts have also softened, indicating that fewer transfers are taking place across the network.

This drop in transaction activity suggests that demand for block space is easing, which usually aligns with quieter market conditions.

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Another important indicator, the UTXO count, reflects how coins are being distributed and reused, and its slowdown points to less frequent movement of funds.

Block data, including the number of bytes per block, further confirms that network usage is not as intense as it was during more active periods.

Taken together, these signals paint a clear picture of declining demand rather than temporary disruption.

The BTC price struggles mirror on-chain weakness

The recent dip below $70,000 appears to be more than just a reaction to short-term news or macro headlines.

Instead, it reflects a broader lack of strong buying pressure needed to sustain higher price levels.

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Even though Bitcoin managed to climb earlier in the week, the rally lacked the support of rising network activity.

This disconnect between price and usage often leads to corrections, as the market struggles to justify higher valuations.

Short-term performance data also shows mild losses across multiple timeframes, reinforcing the idea that momentum is fading.

While the market has not entered a sharp sell-off, the gradual decline suggests a slow shift in sentiment.

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Investors seem to be taking a more cautious approach, with fewer participants actively entering the market.

At the same time, existing holders appear less willing to move their coins, contributing to the drop in transactional activity.

The key Bitcoin price levels to watch in the coming days

Bitcoin is now approaching a critical zone where price action in the coming days could define its short-term direction.

Notably, most technical indicators are leaning bearish, with Bitcoin trading below major exponential moving averages on the daily chart.

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Bitcoin price analysis

This positioning suggests that the broader trend remains under pressure unless the price can reclaim key moving averages.

Currently, the most important level to watch is $69,423, which now acts as immediate support for the market.

If this support holds, it could allow Bitcoin to regain strength and attempt a push toward the first major resistance at $71,645.

If buyers manage to break above $71,645, momentum may build toward the next resistance level at $73,687.

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A stronger rally could then open the door for a test of $75,930, which stands as the third key resistance level in the current structure.

On the downside, failure to hold above $69,423 would weaken the current structure and expose Bitcoin to further losses.

In that scenario, analysts note that the next support would be $67,167.

The news to watch

From a macro perspective, traders should closely watch the upcoming inflation data, particularly the PCE print expected early next month.

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A softer reading below 2.8% could support risk assets and provide Bitcoin with a chance to recover.

On the other hand, a higher-than-expected figure above 3% may add pressure and push prices lower.

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Proposed Bill Seeks to Ban President, Congress from Prediction Markets

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image.png

US lawmakers have introduced a bill aiming to ban members of the US Congress, the president and other high-ranking government officials from wagering on prediction markets.

The proposed bill, a bipartisan effort from US Representative Adrian Smith and Representative Nikki Budzinski, was introduced on Tuesday and is called the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act (PREDICT Act).

“In recent months, we’ve seen instances of little-known traders making massive profits on events ranging from war with Iran to how long a government shutdown will last, raising necessary questions about the use of inside information,” Budzinski said.

The move comes amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets in the US, with lawmakers and regulators taking aim at platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket over contracts related to sports, war and politics.

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The bill seeks to bar members of Congress, the president, vice president and political appointees from wagering on the “outcomes of political events, policy decisions, and other government actions on prediction markets.” It also extends to the spouses and dependents of these government officials.

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The PREDICT Act document. Source: Adrian Smith 

The potential penalties listed in the PREDICT Act include a 10% fine on the total value of the contract and the disgorgement of all profits to the US Treasury.

Commenting on the bill, Budzinski stressed the importance of closing loopholes to ensure people with inside knowledge “cannot profit from it.”

Budzinski isn’t the only one sounding off on alleged corruption on prediction markets. Earlier this month, two Democratic lawmakers introduced a separate bill called the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act.

Speaking about the bill, Senator Chris Murphy alleged that it was likely that people used “inside information” to make bets on US President Donald Trump’s military actions involving Iran.

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US lawmakers turn up heat on prediction markets

US lawmakers aren’t just flagging concerns with insider trading on prediction markets. Sports-related contracts have also recently drawn attention at both the federal and state levels.

Cointelegraph reported earlier this week that 11 states have taken legal action against prediction markets, while another two states also have pending legal action in the works.

At the federal level, Sens. John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced a bill on Monday aiming to ban any Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registered entity from listing prediction market contracts that resemble “a sports bet or casino-style game.”

Related: Why Argentina is blocking Polymarket despite its global growth

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The senators argued that many companies have been offering significant amounts of contracts that “are indistinguishable from gambling” and also took aim at the CFTC for its approach to the sector.