The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Illinois and various state officials on Thursday over the state’s efforts to shutter prediction market providers.

Illinois sent cease-and-desist letters to some prediction market providers, arguing that the companies were offering sports gambling products that should be regulated under state law. The CFTC has argued that prediction markets are offering swaps products, which are regulated under the federal Commodity Exchange Act and therefore are under the “exclusive jurisdiction” of that regulator.

In the lawsuit, the CFTC continued this argument, saying Illinois’s efforts “intrudes on” the CFTC’s role, and that federal law preempts state regulations in this matter.

“Event contracts are derivative instruments that enable parties to trade on their predictions about whether a future event — which may relate to economics, or elections, or climate, or sports, or anything else of a potential financial, economic or commercial consequence — will occur,” the filing said.

The CFTC, especially under current Chairman Mike Selig, has argued that prediction markets are federally regulated, even as many of these companies expand to allow customers to place bets on sporting events. States, under both Republicans and Democrats, have pushed back. Nevada’s Gaming Control Board secured a temporary restraining order against Kalshi last month, with a hearing set for Friday.

The CFTC will participate in an appeals court hearing before the Ninth Circuit later this month, in a consolidated case involving the North American Derivatives Exchange, Kalshi and Robinhood.

Read more: Prediction markets backlash builds possible stormcloud for 2027

Anthony Scaramucci is openly backing Michael Saylor’s high‑yield Bitcoin strategy at the same time he jolts markets with a tongue‑in‑cheek X video announcing a 2028 presidential run, sharpening the line between his crypto advocacy and broader economic message.

In a recent episode of the All Things Markets podcast, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz pulled apart Strategy Inc.’s (NASDAQ: MSTR) use of high‑yield perpetual securities, which Scaramucci said can deliver “four quarterly dividend payments equivalent to a yield of approximately 11.5%” for Bitcoin believers. He was explicit about his own position: “I’m a big fan of Saylor, and obviously SkyBridge owns a lot of Bitcoin. We don’t hold any of those assets, but I just wanted to disclose that to people.”

Saylor’s 11.5% Bitcoin‑backed yield under scrutiny

Novogratz stressed the structure’s dependence on leverage: “It’s leverage on the strategy,” he said, arguing Saylor currently enjoys a “big margin of safety” because of his large Bitcoin corpus but that a sharp drop in BTC would “inevitably” eat into that cushion. He warned that if Bitcoin crashed to around $30,000, perpetual investors “naturally” fear losing principal, because they “don’t have the right to get their money back” and Saylor can theoretically halt dividends, which would likely push the instrument to a steep discount.

That nuanced pitch to yield‑hungry Bitcoin holders landed just hours before Scaramucci’s latest viral video on X, where he stood in his office wearing a “Mooch 2028” cap and declared, “I’m running for President of the United States in 2028… Join me and help me heal America.” The clip, posted on April Fools’ Day, was quickly framed by outlets like Benzinga and Breitbart as a prank, but it reads like a test balloon: he references his ill‑fated 11‑day stint in Donald Trump’s first White House and insists, “I do believe I can help guide this country in the right direction.”

In a separate BeInCrypto interview covered by BloomingBit, Scaramucci said that passing the CLARITY Act, Washington’s flagship crypto market‑structure bill, is “not an easy situation,” adding that “in the current political environment, securing 60 votes in the Senate is almost impossible.” Earlier comments to Coinness underscored how partisan rancor over Trump’s launch of a memecoin, which he said earned between $600 million and $700 million, has further poisoned the well for bipartisan crypto rules.

Price‑wise, Scaramucci has hardly turned cautious: in February he told Benzinga that Bitcoin “doesn’t reward being early, but being patient,” even as BTC traded near $70,981, down about 7.2% on the day, and more recently has floated scenarios of $2 million to $3 million per coin over the next decade. For a would‑be “Mooch 2028” candidate, the message is clear enough — leverage can juice returns, but the real bet is that Bitcoin outlasts U.S. political dysfunction.

Key Takeaways

• Needham reduced HOOD price target from $100 down to $90 while maintaining its Buy recommendation
• Compass Point lowered its target from $127 down to $108, retaining its Buy stance
• March data revealed declining volumes across equity, options, and cryptocurrency trading
• HOOD shares have plummeted 52% in the last six months and 38% since the year began
• The company’s banking arm has exceeded $1.5 billion in total deposits

Robinhood Markets has encountered significant headwinds this week as several Wall Street analysts have lowered their price expectations following the release of disappointing March trading data.

Robinhood Markets, Inc., HOOD

On Wednesday, Needham’s John Todaro revised his price target downward from $100 to $90, though he maintained his bullish Buy rating. His decision stemmed from observations of decelerating growth throughout virtually all segments of the platform.

“We view HOOD as the most advanced financial services platform in its evolution toward a comprehensive financial super app, however the latest volume data and reduced net interest income suggest a more subdued operating environment,” Todaro explained.

The March performance report, published March 30, indicated equity notional trading volumes reached approximately $196 billion. The platform processed 187 million options contracts, while cryptocurrency trading notional volumes totaled $16 billion.

Todaro adjusted his equities and options projections for the first quarter of 2026 downward but maintained his cryptocurrency volume forecasts unchanged, noting that declines in that sector had already been incorporated into previous models. He also reduced revenue expectations for both 2026 and 2027, primarily due to anticipated lower trading activity and diminished net interest income.

His revised $90 target price reflects 27 times Needham’s discounted fiscal 2027 EV/EBITDA calculation.

This adjustment came one day after Wolfe Research’s Steven Chubak lowered his target from $115 to $81 — representing approximately a 30% reduction. His revision followed a decline in cryptocurrency transaction revenues, further pressured by broader digital asset market weakness.

Compass Point Joins Downgrade Chorus

Compass Point’s Ed Engel similarly decreased his price objective on Wednesday, moving from $127 to $108 while preserving his Buy rating. His forecasting models project Q1 revenue coming in 9% beneath consensus expectations, with shortfalls anticipated across all three primary business lines.

Engel observed that retail trading activity typically decelerates after five to six straight months of volatile market conditions, and that most retail investor favorites have generally declined since early October.

He made a comparison to April 2025, when analysts were reducing forecasts ahead of Liberation Day. Engel proposed that should markets recover, Robinhood could emerge as a significant beneficiary considering the 2026 IPO calendar.

HOOD shares have now declined 52% during the past six months and trade 46% beneath their 52-week peak of $153.86. The stock currently carries a P/E multiple of 34.14 and commands a market capitalization of $63.1 billion. InvestingPro’s analysis indicates the stock appears overvalued at present price levels.

Banking Segment Provides Encouraging Signs

Despite trading challenges, not all indicators are negative. Robinhood’s banking operation has surpassed $1.5 billion in deposits, serving nearly 100,000 funded customers — representing an approximately 50% deposit increase over a recent timeframe.

Bernstein SocGen Group reduced its price target from $160 to $130 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The investment firm continues to forecast 25% earnings per share expansion by 2026 and a 30% revenue compound annual growth rate spanning 2025 through 2027.

Jefferies launched coverage with a Buy recommendation and an $88 price target, highlighting opportunities from expanding global retail participation and a diversified product offering.

According to TipRanks, HOOD maintains a Strong Buy consensus recommendation based on 15 Buy ratings and 2 Hold ratings, with an average price target of $117.33 — suggesting approximately 67% potential upside from current trading levels. The most optimistic price target among analysts reaches $147.

The company’s complete first-quarter earnings report is scheduled for release in May.

Soluna Holdings, a publicly traded Bitcoin (BTC) mining and AI infrastructure company focused on renewable energy, announced on Thursday that it closed a $53 million deal to acquire a wind farm to power its upcoming Project Dorothy 3 AI data center campus.

The Briscoe Wind Farm, located in Briscoe County, Texas, has a potential capacity of up to 300 megawatts (MW), according to the company’s announcement.

The company forecasts that the facility will generate annualized revenue between $20 million and $24.4 million. 

Shares of Soluna are up by about 7.6% following the news, and are trading at about $0.76 at the time of writing.

Soluna expanded into AI data center infrastructure in February 2024, amid an industry-wide pivot toward AI and high-performance computing infrastructure to shore up declining revenues from the crypto mining business.

Related: AI data center gold rush sparks debate over impact on Bitcoin mining

Miners adopt renewable energy solutions amid profit squeeze

The Bitcoin mining industry faces several economic headwinds, including declining block rewards, rising energy costs and compressing profit margins, with many companies operating near or below breakeven levels.

Up to 20% of mining companies aren’t profitable, according to a March 2026 report from asset manager CoinShares.  

The average cost to mine a single Bitcoin rose to nearly $80,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025, CoinShares said. Bitcoin is currently trading well below that level.

“Q4 2025 marked the most challenging quarter for Bitcoin miners since the April 2024 halving,” the report said.

The October 2025 market crash, which caused Bitcoin to plummet from an all-time high around the $125,000 level to a low of about $60,000, and rising network hashrate have placed even more pressure on the industry, CoinShares said.

Bitcoin mining companies sold over 15,000 BTC between October and early March to cover operating expenses, and the pace of selling has continued in recent weeks.

Several Bitcoin mining companies, including The Pheonix Group and Sangha Renewables, have adopted renewable energy solutions to power their operations and remain competitive amid a challenging business environment. 

Canaan, a mining hardware manufacturer and mining company, partnered with Soluna in September to deploy a wind-powered BTC mining facility at the Briscoe, Texas site. 

Related: AI may already use more power than Bitcoin — and it threatens Bitcoin mining