Crypto World
Was The 40% Rally A Retail Trap?
Uniswap price is up around 3% over the past 24 hours, trading near $3.40. But this small move hides what really happened on February 11. That day, UNI surged nearly 42% to a high near $4.57 after news linked Uniswap to BlackRock’s tokenized fund expansion.
Since then, sellers have erased about 26% of that rally. This raises a key question: was this institutional-driven breakout a real trend shift, or a trap for retail buyers?
Uniswap Price Breakout on February 11 Was Driven by Retail Momentum
The rally on February 11 did not happen randomly.
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On the 12-hour chart, Uniswap price had been forming a bullish setup since mid-January. Between January 19 and February 11, UNI made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, made higher lows. RSI measures momentum by tracking buying and selling strength. When price falls, but RSI rises, it signals a bullish divergence, often warning that selling pressure is weakening.
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This divergence suggested that a rebound was building.
That signal was confirmed on February 11. On that day, On-Balance Volume, or OBV, broke above a long-term descending trendline. OBV tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of an asset. When OBV breaks upward, it usually shows growing retail participation. The timing was important.
RSI divergence had been in place for weeks. OBV only broke out on February 11, exactly when the BlackRock-linked news hit the market. This shows that retail traders reacted aggressively to the headline, rushing into UNI.
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With momentum and volume aligned, the Uniswap price surged to around $4.57 in a single session. But the structure of that candle raised early warning signs.
On the 12-hour chart, the breakout candle formed with a very long upper wick and a small body. This means buyers pushed the price higher, but sellers absorbed most of the move before the close. It was the first sign that a strong supply existed near $4.50. The rally looked powerful. But distribution had already started.
Whale Selling Near $4.57 Explains the Sharp Rejection
The long wick on February 11 was not driven by random selling. Whale data shows who was responsible.
On that day, supply held by large Uniswap holders dropped sharply from about 648.46 million UNI to 642.51 million UNI. That is a reduction of roughly 5.95 million tokens. At prices near $4.57, this represents selling pressure worth about $27 million.
This was not profit-taking by small traders. It was a coordinated distribution by large wallets.
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While retail buyers were chasing the breakout, whales were exiting into strength. This explains why the UNI price failed to hold above $4.50 and why the rally collapsed so quickly. Once large holders finished selling, buy-side momentum weakened. Without whale support, the market could not sustain elevated prices.
The result was a fast retracement. From the $4.57 peak, the Uniswap price fell about 26%. Most late buyers were possibly immediately pushed into losses. This confirms that the BlackRock-related surge became a liquidity event for large holders.
Retail provided the demand. Whales provided the supply.
4-Hour Chart Shows the Uniswap Price Rally Target Was Already Completed
The lower timeframe explains why the pullback started so quickly. On the 4-hour chart, Uniswap had been forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern inside a descending channel. This is a classic reversal structure that often signals a short-term breakout.
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On February 11, UNI broke above the neckline of this pattern and quickly reached its projected target near $4.57. In technical terms, the setup had already completed its measured move.
At the same time, the 4-hour OBV divergence became clear. Between late January and February 11, UNI moved higher, but OBV continued trending lower. This shows that volume strength was weakening even as the price rose. This bearish OBV divergence warned that the breakout was not being supported by sustained retail demand. Plus, the OBV is currently trending down, showing retail offloading.
Retail traders focused on the price move. Whales focused on the structure. By the time most buyers entered, the rally was already mature. Now, price is drifting near $3.40 while volume continues to weaken. This suggests that speculative demand is fading.
If UNI holds above $3.21, the market may attempt consolidation. But this support is fragile because it is built on short-term buying, not long-term accumulation.
A breakdown below $3.21 would likely trigger another sell wave. In that case, the next major level sits near $2.80, which marks the head of the prior reversal pattern. A move to this zone would erase all of the BlackRock-driven gains.
To regain strength, Uniswap price must reclaim the $3.68 to $3.96 region. This area now acts as a major obstacle after the failed breakout. Only a sustained move above it would reopen upside toward $4.57.
TLDR
- Rivian (RIVN) receives Buy rating from TD Cowen with $20 price target, raised from $17
- Rating change arrives two days prior to R2 SUV unveiling at SXSW 2026 on March 12
- Analyst forecasts R2 demand between 212,000 and 335,000 units per year at full production
- Shares down approximately 20% in 2025, currently trading near $15.87
- Wall Street expects revenue growth from $5.4B in 2025 to $16.3B by 2028
Wall Street is turning more bullish on Rivian (RIVN) stock as the electric vehicle maker prepares for one of its most important product launches, with TD Cowen elevating its rating to Buy mere days before the R2 SUV makes its debut.
Itay Michaeli, the TD Cowen analyst covering Rivian, increased his price target to $20 — marking his second upward revision in less than four weeks. His initial adjustment came February 14, moving from $13 to $17, followed by Tuesday’s additional $3 increase. Against Monday’s close of $15.87, the new target suggests potential upside of approximately 26%.
The upgrade timing is strategic. The company will take the wraps off its R2 SUV on March 12 during the SXSW 2026 Festival in Austin, Texas. This unveiling has been a focal point for market watchers for several months.
RIVN shares have declined roughly 20% since the start of 2025. The stock hit its yearly bottom at $12.50 in April amid tariff concerns, then rallied to a 2025 peak of $22.45 in late December. For the past month, shares have mostly hovered around the $15 mark.
TD Cowen’s analysis projects R2 sales reaching between 212,000 and 335,000 units annually once production reaches full capacity — significantly exceeding current Street estimates for 2027. The firm believes the risk-to-reward profile entering the unveiling event is favorable at present valuation levels.
The R2’s Strategic Importance
Rivian’s R2 carries a price tag around $45,000, making it $30,000–$40,000 less expensive than the current R1T pickup and R1S SUV. The automaker has indicated the R2 will also cost less to manufacture, utilizing fewer electronic control units, streamlined wiring architecture, and expanded use of castings.
This dual advantage — accessible pricing coupled with reduced production costs — has captured Wall Street’s focus. The company’s manufacturing output fell from 57,232 vehicles in 2023 to 42,284 in 2025, a decline management attributes to supply chain constraints, reduced EV incentives, and intensifying competition.
The R2 targets a significantly broader consumer segment. Rivian intends to leverage both its forthcoming Georgia manufacturing site and existing Illinois facility to expand capacity, aiming to triple total production capability by 2028.
Current revenue stands at $5.4 billion for 2025. Wall Street projections call for that figure to reach $16.3 billion by 2028, contingent on successful R2 production scaling. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to swing positive during that same timeframe.
Current Stock Positioning
Trading around $15 per share, RIVN sits more than 80% beneath its 2021 IPO valuation and represents less than three times estimated 2025 sales. Shares advanced to $17 in mid-February following stronger-than-anticipated Q4 earnings and positive early R2 media impressions.
The company maintains additional products in development. The premium-positioned R3 SUV is slated for late 2026 or early 2027 arrival, with the R2 serving to establish brand recognition and manufacturing momentum ahead of that release.
TD Cowen maintained a more conservative outlook previously, reducing its target to $13 last August and identifying Rivian’s AI Day and the R2 launch as the two primary near-term catalysts deserving attention.
The R2 unveiling is now under 48 hours away.
- Polkadot price fluctuated in a tight range near $1.50 on Tuesday.
- Bulls could push to above $1.67 ahead of DOT emissions cut.
- Sell-off pressure amid prevailing market conditions might derail this setup.
Polkadot is trading near $1.50 as bulls position amid a potential breakout, with eyes on the upcoming upgrade and overhaul of DOT’s tokenomics.
The cryptocurrency’s price is also off lows of $1.40 reached earlier in the week as investors ponder a potential boost to DOT from fresh institutional interest.
Bulls recently celebrated the launch of the first US spot Polkadot ETF.
DOT, ranked 33rd with a market capitalization of $2.54 billion, is bidding to extend gains amid overall upward movement for Bitcoin and top altcoins.
Polkadot (DOT) holds near $1.50 as upgrade nears
Polkadot’s price shows an intraday range of $1.49-1.54 in early trading during the US session on March 10.
The gains see buyers bid for a retest of recent highs, while holding the critical $1.50 level.
The backdrop to this price action is a scheduled reset of Polkadot’s tokenomics.
A new monetary framework will roll out on March 12, and analysts say anticipation could catalyze fresh momentum for DOT.
The uptick this past week coincided with notable buying as traders positioned ahead of the event.
Specifically, Polkadot’s tokenomics reset will involve the introduction of a 2.1 billion hard cap on DOT supply.
The upgrade targets a 53.6% cut in emissions as well as staking.
ETF buzz has also engulfed Polkadot over the past few days.
This follows the debut of 21Shares’ spot Polkadot ETF, the first US spot DOT ETF that went live on Nasdaq under the ticker TDOT.
The physically backed fund, seeded with $11 million, could strengthen the asset’s appeal as a longer‑term allocation within diversified crypto portfolios.
Polkadot technical analysis
From a technical perspective, DOT’s immediate focus is on converting the $1.50-$1.55 region from resistance into support.
Bulls are eyeing three consecutive green candles on the daily chart and look to have stemmed the downtrend from highs of $1.75 posted in late February.
RSI is neutral near 50, and an upturn could see buyers accelerate gains.
However, after a choppy start to the year, trading around this level means bulls may not be out of the woods yet.
The token may thus trade sideways as consolidation picks pace.
For a breakout, DOT has to achieve an emphatic daily close above $1.55.
A successful breach of resistance at $1.67 amid a bullish retest could trigger follow-through buying.
If this happens, it could open the door to a short-term test of recent local highs around $2.30.
Conversely, failure to hold $1.50 will keep DOT confined within its descending channel. Major support lies around $1.22.
Opinion by: Jesus Rodriguez, co-founder of Sentora
If you look at decentralized finance (DeFi) as a stack of computational primitives, it’s remarkably complete — yet fundamentally broken.
We have automated market makers for liquidity, like Uniswap. We have lending markets for capital efficiency, and bridges for cross-chain “packet switching.” Step back and look at the architecture from a systems engineering perspective.
There is a gaping hole where the risk backstop should be.
Insurance is the “missing primitive” of the decentralized web. It is the translation layer that turns scary, opaque technical risk into a legible line item — a number you can compare, hedge and budget for. Without it, we aren’t building a financial system; we’re building a very sophisticated, high-stakes casino.
Insurance hasn’t worked, so far
A lot of chatter has been spent on why onchain insurance hasn’t “mooned” despite billions in total value locked (TVL). Personally, I suspect the failure is structural, not just a “lack of interest.” We’ve been fighting against the physics of risk management.
Most first-generation protocols tried to use DeFi-native assets, like Ether (ETH) or protocol tokens, to insure the very same DeFi stack those assets live in. This is a classic “reflexivity” trap. When a major exploit happens, the entire ecosystem usually suffers a setback. The collateral loses value at the exact moment the payout is triggered. In systems terms, this is a positive feedback loop of failure. It’s like trying to insure a house against fire using a bucket of gasoline. To work, insurance requires uncorrelated capital: assets that don’t care if a specific smart contract gets drained.
Historically, we relied on retail yield farmers to provide “cover.” These users don’t wake up caring about actuarial tables or underwriting. They care about APY and points. This is not the stable, long-term underwriting base that is required to build a multibillion-dollar risk engine. Real insurance requires a “low cost of capital” base — institutional-grade assets that are happy to sit and collect a steady 2%-4% spread without needing to “degenerate” into 100% APY schemes.
The scaling imperative
We’ve spent years obsessing over TVL as the North Star of DeFi. TVL is a vanity metric; it tells you how much capital is sitting in the “danger zone.” The metric we actually need to optimize for — the one that actually measures the maturity of the industry — is total value covered (TVC).
If we have $100 billion in TVL but only $500 million in TVC, the system is effectively 99.5% “naked.” In any traditional engineering discipline, this would be considered a catastrophic failure in safety margins. You wouldn’t fly in a plane that was 0.5% “safety tested.”
The scaling imperative for the next era of DeFi is to bridge this gap. We need a path where TVC scales linearly with TVL. Currently, they are decoupled. TVL grows exponentially based on speculation, while TVC crawls linearly because the “risk markets” are illiquid and manually managed. Scaling DeFi isn’t just about Layer 2 throughput; it’s about “risk throughput.”
Pricing the ghost in the machine
We often talk about risk as an ethereal, spooky thing that happens to other people. In a mature financial system, risk is a commodity. It needs to be assetized.
Think of DeFi insurance as the pricing engine of risk. Currently, when you deposit into a vault, you are consuming a bundle of risks: smart contract risk, oracle risk and economic design risk. These risks are currently unpriced — they are just hidden baggage you carry.
By building a robust insurance primitive, we turn those hidden risks into tradable assets. We move from “I hope this doesn’t break” to “The market says the probability of this breaking is exactly 0.8% per annum, and here is the tokenized instrument that pays out if it does.”
Related: AI will forever change smart contract audits
This assetization is powerful because it creates a market signal. If the cost of cover for Protocol A is 5% while Protocol B is 1%, the market has effectively “priced” the security of the code. Insurance isn’t just a safety net; it’s the global oracle for protocol health. It turns “security” from a vague marketing claim into a hard, liquid price.
The dream of programmable insurance
The “end state” of this technology isn’t just a decentralized version of Geico — it’s a transition from legal insurance to computational insurance.
Think about the difference between a traditional legal contract and a smart contract. Traditional insurance involves 40-page PDFs, adjusters and a six-month claims process. It is a “human-in-the-loop” bottleneck.
Programmable insurance is a primitive that can be integrated directly into the transaction stack. It includes granular cover and atomic payouts. You don’t just “insure a protocol” in the abstract. You insure a specific LP position, a specific oracle feed, or even a single high-value transaction. If the state of the blockchain detects an exploit, the payout happens in the same block. There is no “claims department”; there is only “state verification.”
This makes insurance a “first-class citizen” in the code. You can imagine an “Insurance” button on every swap or deposit, much like how you choose “priority gas” today. It becomes a toggle in the UI.
The next wave of DeFi adoption
The real challenge for DeFi adoption isn’t convincing another 1,000 degens to use a bridge; it’s onboarding the fintechs and neobanks.
These entities are already knocking on the door. They are considering the 5% onchain risk-free rates and comparing them to their legacy rails, which are clogged with overheads and rent-seekers. However, for a neobank (think of firms such as Revolut, Chime or Nubank), “The code is the law” is not a valid risk management strategy. Their regulators — and their own risk committees — simply won’t allow it.
For these players, insurance isn’t a “nice to have”; it’s a hard requirement for deployment. They represent the next “trillion-dollar” wave of liquidity, but they are currently standing on the sidelines. They need a “wrapper” that makes DeFi look like a bank account.
If we can provide a robust, programmatically backed insurance layer, we aren’t just protecting degens; we are providing the “regulatory-compliant shield” that allows a neobank to put $1 billion of customer deposits into a lending vault. Insurance is the bridge between “crypto-native” and “global finance.”
We’ve spent the last few years building the “engine” of the new financial system. We have the pistons (liquidity), the transmission (bridges) and the fuel (capital). But we forgot the brakes and the air bags.
Until we solve the insurance primitive, DeFi will remain a niche experiment for the risk tolerant. By shifting our focus from TVL to TVC, moving toward uncorrelated collateral and embracing the “pricing engine” of assetized risk, we can finally turn this experiment into a resilient, global utility.
Strap in. There is a lot of code to write and even more risk to underwrite.
Opinion by: Jesus Rodriguez, co-founder of Sentora.
This opinion article presents the author’s expert view, and it may not reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. This content has undergone editorial review to ensure clarity and relevance. Cointelegraph remains committed to transparent reporting and upholding the highest standards of journalism. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before taking any actions related to the company.
U.S. prosecutors asked a federal judge to set an October date for the retrial of Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm on two unresolved criminal counts after a jury failed to reach unanimous verdicts during the original hearing, according to a letter filed Monday in the Southern District of New York.
In a letter to U.S. District Judge Katherine Polk Failla, U.S. attorney Jay Clayton, a former chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC, asked for a date now to “to avoid further unnecessary delays,” even though Storm, who is currently free on bail, has a pending motion for a judgment of acquittal. Oral arguments on that motion are scheduled for April 9.
Storm is a co-founder of Tornado Cash, a crypto mixer designed to obscure the origin and destination of blockchain transactions. In August, a jury convicted Storm on one count tied to operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business, and failed to agree on verdicts for two other charges, leaving alleged violations of money laundering sanctions law unresolved. He is currently free on bail while awaiting further proceedings.
Storm criticized the planned retrial in an X post on Tuesday, saying the jury’s split decision reflected uncertainty about the government’s case.
“A jury of 12 Americans heard four weeks of evidence and deadlocked: no verdict on money laundering, and no verdict on sanctions violations,” Storm wrote. “The government’s response? Try again to make writing code a crime.”
Storm also referred to a U.S. Treasury report acknowledging that mixing services like Tornado Cash can serve lawful purposes on public blockchains. The report came after years of opposition to crypto mixers.
Defense lawyers told prosecutors that setting a trial date before the April motion is resolved would be premature.
Arkham’s data shows that their PnL on bitcoin has risen to $1.8 billion.
The Winklevoss twins, who have been predominantly vocal about Zcash and Cypherpunk lately, have made a large BTC transfer to the cryptocurrency exchange they co-founded a decade ago.
According to data from the analytics company Arkham, the $130 million transfer to Gemini’s hot wallets was done “presumably to sell.”
THE WINKLEVOSS TWINS SOLD $130M BTC
The Winklevoss Twins transferred $130M of BTC to Gemini Hot Wallets since last week, presumably to sell.
The Winklevosses once owned 1% of the circulating BTC supply – and now continue to hold $764M of BTC. Their total PnL on BTC is currently… pic.twitter.com/Pjzp45V3K7
— Arkham (@arkham) March 10, 2026
Their data further indicates that the brothers once owned roughly 1% of bitcoin’s supply. Previous reports suggested that they began buying BTC in 2011, purchasing $11 million in the cryptocurrency at $120 per unit from the $65 million they were awarded in cash and Facebook stock following a legal dispute with Mark Zuckerberg.
Although they reportedly sold a portion of their holdings to launch Gemini, their estimated PnL on bitcoin remains around $1.8 billion, Arkham added.
They have made several newsworthy donations over the years, including multi-million-dollar transfers of BTC to Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign on the promise that he was pro-bitcoin, pro-crypto, and pro-business.
While championing for more privacy in the cryptocurrency industry, their focus has most recently switched toward Cypherpunk – a company dedicated to self-sovereignty.
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In the initial statement, the brothers said they will “execute on our mission by accumulating, building, and supporting privacy-protecting assets and technologies at a time when the world needs them more than ever.”
The latest press release shared by the company reads that Cypherpunk Technologies has invested $5 million into Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), which is its first tech investment outside of ZEC.
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US lawmakers have launched an investigation into several Wall Street underwriters, including Dominari Securities, whose parent company is linked to the Trump family, over their role in bringing Chinese companies to US stock markets that were later tied to stock manipulation schemes.
On Monday, the House of Representatives Select Committee on China, chaired by Representative John Moolenaar with Rep. Ro Khanna as ranking member, sent letters to three US companies — D. Boral Capital, Dominari Securities and Revere Securities — seeking information about Chinese initial public offerings (IPOs) they helped underwrite.
“These scam centers defraud American households through coordinated “ramp-and-dump” stock manipulation schemes involving Chinese shell companies listed on American exchanges, which your firm appears to facilitate,” the lawmakers wrote.
The Chinese companies allegedly used US IPOs to inflate their share prices through coordinated trading and promotion, then dumped shares on retail investors before the stocks crashed. In some cases, dozens of accounts allegedly placed nearly identical buy orders above the IPO price, temporarily pushing valuations higher before insiders sold their stakes.
Related: Trump Sends Pro-Bitcoin Fed Chair Nomination to the Senate
Chinese stock schemes drain billions from investors
The lawmakers cited estimates that around $16 billion in US investor wealth has been drained since 2023 through such schemes. They also pointed to FBI data showing a 300% increase in complaints tied to Chinese stock manipulation cases.
The inquiry seeks documentation from the underwriters, including communications, trading records, funding sources and due diligence policies related to Chinese IPOs.
The committee said it is examining whether US financial intermediaries may have inadvertently helped facilitate manipulation schemes tied to Chinese issuers. The firms have been asked to submit the requested documents by Friday.
Related: Trump’s Media Company Closes $105M Crypto.com Deal
Dominari draws scrutiny in Chinese stock probe
One of the brokerage firms named in the probe is Dominari, which has ties to the Trump family. Located in New York’s Trump Tower, it is owned by Dominari Holdings, where Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, is the fourth-largest shareholder. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. joined the company’s advisory board in February 2025.
Last year, Dominari helped facilitate fundraising for Thumzup, a public company that adopted a Bitcoin (BTC) treasury strategy and also attracted millions of dollars in investment from Donald Trump Jr.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author
Bitcoin’s recent dip triggered heavy trading activity, with nearly 600,000 BTC changing hands in the $60,000–$70,000 range, according to blockchain data tracked by Glassnode.
In other words, traders went bargain hunting, snapping up nearly 600,000 BTC ($42.48 billion) in this price band during the correction. Of these, more than 200,000 BTC were accumulated in the past two weeks alone.
Note that at the start of the year, roughly 997,000 BTC had last moved within the $60,000–$70,000 range. Since bitcoin’s recent drop below $70,000, that number has jumped to 1.558 million BTC.
Taken together, it means that nearly 8% of the circulating supply is owned by people who bought their bitcoin in this range, creating a dense cluster of ownership. As such, the $60,000–$70,000 range could act as an important support level going forward.
At press time, bitcoin changed hands above $70,000, trading at levels, which have previously seen thin trading activity. CoinDesk Research has previously highlighted the “air gap” between $70,000 and $80,000, a range where relatively little supply changed hands.
Still, the market is at a point where things could spice up, because analysis by Checkonchain shows that around 40% of bitcoin holders have paid more than $70,000 for their coins.
- Legal injunction halts South Korean delistings of FLOW cryptocurrency.
- Altcoin rotation supports FLOW’s surge, outperforming broader crypto markets.
- Momentum indicators show FLOW in the overbought region, hinting at a possible pullback.
FLOW, the native token of the Flow blockchain, has seen a dramatic surge today, climbing over 53% in just 24 hours.
The jump comes despite recent announcements that major South Korean exchanges, including Upbit and Bithumb, planned to delist the token.
At first glance, delisting news might seem like a bearish trigger, but in FLOW’s case, the market response has been the opposite.
Here’s why the FLOW price is rising
The primary reason behind the surge is a legal move to suspend the delistings.
The Flow Foundation filed an injunction with the Seoul Central District Court to halt the planned March 16 delistings.
This move has reassured investors that the token will remain accessible on major South Korean platforms, removing a significant risk that had weighed on FLOW’s price for months.
In addition, Binance recently removed its monitoring tag for FLOW, signalling that previous technical issues have been resolved.
Together, these developments have alleviated fears about liquidity and safety, prompting a rush of capital back into the token.
Trading volumes have also spiked dramatically, indicating that both domestic and international traders are jumping in on the momentum.
Altcoin rotation strengthens the bullish momentum
Beyond the legal developments, FLOW’s rally has also benefited from a broader market trend.
Capital is currently rotating into altcoins, with investors seeking opportunities outside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
This environment has amplified FLOW’s gains, as traders are looking for tokens with high growth potential and positive news catalysts.
FLOW’s performance today illustrates how market psychology and sector-wide trends can interact.
Even though BTC and the broader market have seen modest gains, FLOW’s price movement is clearly outpacing them due to its specific news-driven momentum.
This demonstrates how individual altcoins can decouple from broader market trends when there is a strong, token-specific catalyst.
FLOW price forecast
The pending court decision will remain the primary catalyst, as a favourable ruling could sustain momentum, while a rejection could trigger a swift correction.
Looking ahead, the immediate support is around $0.0481, which has acted as a pivot during the surge.
Holding above this level suggests that buyers remain in control and that the rally could continue toward the $0.07 area.
However, FLOW is currently in overbought territory, with momentum indicators like the RSI suggesting that a short-term pullback is possible.
If the price falls below the pivot, the token could retrace toward the 50-day moving average near $0.04743.
Crypto World
Stablecoin market expands, BTC price rallies as Iran war panic cools: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The stablecoin market is expanding again, led by USDC, and bitcoin’s rally is gathering steam.
The panic over the Iran war has cooled in the past 24 hours after President Donald Trump said the conflict could be over soon. The result: Bitcoin, which held resilient through the turmoil, has rallied past $70,000, up over 4%. The CoinDesk 20 Index, ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) are up 3% to 5%, and smaller coins like HYPE, ZEC, and RENDER rallying 7% to 11%.
The market capitalization of USDC, the second-largest dollar-pegged cryptocurrency, is fast closing on the record high of $78.6 billion, extending a recovery from the late-January low of $70.9 billion. Stablecoin leader USDT’s supply has risen to $184 billion from the late-February low of $183.5 billion.
This upswing in supply of top coins pegged to the U.S. dollar indicates the dry powder sitting on the sidelines is increasing and could be deployed to fund new crypto purchases as the rally extends. ETF inflows are supportive of a continued bullish trend as well.
Some indicators, however, still call for caution. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the gap between bitcoin prices on the Nasdaq-listed Coinbase (COIN) exchange and offshore giant Binance, remains negative, a sign that demand from U.S. investors is still lagging. Historically, bull runs have seen sustained Coinbase premiums.
In traditional markets, oil has fallen back below $100, which supports continued stability in all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The dollar index and Treasury yields have also pulled back from recent highs. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 10, 9:00 a.m.: U.S. existing home sales for February est. 3.9M (Prev. 3.91M)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Aavegotchi DAO is conducting ballot 1and 2 of a multi-sig signer election, asking token holders to choose one signer from various nominees. Voting ends March 10.
- Ssv.network DAO is voting to cancel DIP-46 and reallocate the originally approved $15 million development budget, splitting it into $14.9 million for DVT and $100,000 as a retroactive research grant. Voting ends March 10.
- Realtoken Ecosystem Governance DAO is voting to temporarily pause interest rates on the RMM (Real Estate Monetary Fund) to zero for 15 days. Voting ends March 10.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 2.56% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $70,734.01 (24hrs: +4.60%)
- ETH is up 1.68% at $2,061.24 (24hrs: +3.38%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2.02% at 2,015.27 (24hrs: +4.08%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 17 bps at 2.81%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0024% (2.6105% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 98.84
- Gold futures are up 2.02% at $5,194.10
- Silver futures are up 6.50% at $89.50
- Nikkei 225 closed up 2.88% at 54,248.39
- Hang Seng closed up 2.17% at 25,959.90
- FTSE 100 is up 1.84% at 10,437.86
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 2.94% at 5,852.45
- DJIA closed on Monday up 0.50% at 47,740.80
- S&P 500 closed up 0.83% at 6,795.99
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.38% at 22,695.95
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.32% at 33,189.30
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.61% at 3.532,70
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.14%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,823.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,100.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 47,948.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.53% (0.77%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02905 (-0.27%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,008 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $31.06
- Total fees: 2.52 BTC / $171,578
- CME Futures Open Interest: 103,205 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.7 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.76%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows SOL’s daily price action in candlestick format since August last year.
- The token is again trapped in a back-and-forth trading range, this time between $75 and $90, mimicking the October and December-January pattern.
- The next move depends on the direction in which the range is ultimately resolved. A bullish resolution could bring a quick-fire rally above $100, while a breakdown would suggest continuation of the broader bearish trend.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $199.79 (+1.30%), +3.46% at $206.70 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $111.84 (+9.74%), +2.18% at $114.28
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.50 (+4.57%), +3.09% at $22.16
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.66 (+8.11%), +2.31% at $8.86
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.70 (+3.78%), +2.52% at $15.07
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.16 (+2.02%), +1.45% at $15.38
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.61 (+4.34%), +2.29% at $9.83
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.83 (-0.64%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.33 (+3.49%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.06 (+3.15%), +1.14% at $36.47
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.95 (+4.06%), +3.25% at $143.46
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.51 (-2.18%), +4.58% at $8.90
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.60 (+3.26%), +1.71% at $7.73
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.97 (+7.78%), +6.19% at $1.03
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+5.26%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $167.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.52 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.28 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$51.3 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.61 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.73 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
Crypto World
Massive leveraged bets show crypto traders are convinced this week’s rally is the real deal
Crypto traders on the perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid are placing increasingly aggressive leveraged bets that bitcoin will break above $75,000 after a sharp rally at the start of the week.
Bitcoin climbed to around $71,000 on Tuesday, up from roughly $65,000 when BTC futures opened on Sunday evening. The move has reignited calls for a retest of recent highs after being rejected near $74,000 last week.
Onchain data shows several large traders — often referred to as “whales” — opening highly leveraged long positions on Hyperliquid as prices rise.
One trader is holding ether (ETH) and bitcoin long positions worth $194 million with unrealized profit and loss standing at around $6.5 million. Another account has $103 million worth of long positions across a multitude of trading pairs, betting on a broader crypto breakout as opposed to a major-dominated rally.
Positions on Hyperliquid are typically opened with leverage, allowing traders to amplify exposure. One wallet, for example, opened a series of trades using 20x leverage, meaning a $1 million account could control a $20 million bitcoin position. This trader opened 20x leveraged longs on 600 BTC worth about $42.5 million while simultaneously taking a 20x long position on 20,000 ETH valued at roughly $41.2 million.
The whale also appears to be accumulating ether in spot markets. Data shows the address spent $21 million in USDC to purchase 10,158 ETH at an average price of $2,067 shortly before opening the derivatives positions.
Other nine-figure long positions demonstrate one thing: Crypto traders are confident this breakout will stick and won’t be a bull trap like last week.
A separate wallet, 0x985f, is taking a different macro stance. The address deposited $9.5 million in USDC into Hyperliquid within a five-hour window before opening 20x leveraged short positions on oil futures, including roughly $8.17 million in crude oil (CL) contracts and $6.15 million in Brent oil.
The same trader also opened short positions across several crypto tokens, including HYPE, PUMP, XPL, APT and ASTER, suggesting a broader bearish stance on select altcoins while large traders concentrate bullish bets on bitcoin and ether.
The positioning highlights how decentralized derivatives platforms such as Hyperliquid have become a hub for large leveraged bets during periods of strong bitcoin momentum.
A break above $75,000 could force short sellers to cover and accelerate the rally, while a move lower would quickly test the conviction of traders piling into nine-figure leveraged longs.
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