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What Are The Chances Of Ethereum Price Recovery To $2,500

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Ethereum Exchange Net Position Change

Ethereum has shown early signs of recovery after a prolonged period of weakness that pushed prices sharply lower. ETH has attempted to stabilize near key support levels, but further upside depends on sustained backing from investors and broader market conditions. 

At present, Ethereum appears to have at least one of these factors working in its favor, keeping recovery prospects alive.

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Ethereum Investors Change Stance

On-chain data suggests a notable shift in investor behavior. The exchange net position change indicator, which tracks capital flows into and out of exchanges, has turned negative for Ethereum. This signals that more ETH is leaving exchanges than entering them, a pattern typically associated with accumulation rather than distribution.

Such outflows suggest holders are choosing to buy and move ETH into private wallets instead of preparing to sell. Lower prices often encourage this behavior as investors position for potential rebounds. This shift in stance reflects improving confidence, even as the price has yet to fully reflect rising demand.

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Ethereum Exchange Net Position Change
Ethereum Exchange Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

Broader momentum indicators support this narrative. The Chaikin Money Flow has shown a steady uptick over the past week, reinforcing the trend observed in exchange data. Rising CMF values indicate declining outflows and improving capital flow dynamics across Ethereum markets.

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A move above the zero line would mark inflows overtaking outflows, a bullish development for ETH. At the same time, Ethereum has managed to hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $2,054. Maintaining this level often acts as a trigger for renewed participation, encouraging investors to deploy capital as downside risk appears more contained.

Ethereum CMF
Ethereum CMF. Source: TradingView

What Is ETH Price’s Next Target?

Ethereum is trading near $2,018 at the time of writing, signaling that demand remains present beneath current prices. The challenge lies in translating that demand into sustained upward movement. A successful bounce from the $2,000 level could push ETH through $2,205, a key short-term resistance. Beyond that, the psychological target of $2,500 comes into focus.

Ethereum Price Analysis
Ethereum Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Reaching $2,500 may not prove difficult from a structural standpoint. Cost basis distribution data shows relatively light accumulation around this zone, suggesting limited overhead supply. As a result, ETH could move through this range with less resistance once momentum builds. Stronger accumulation clusters appear closer to $2,800, which is likely to act as a more meaningful barrier.

Ethereum CBD Heatmap
Ethereum CBD Heatmap. Source: Glassnode

Before that scenario plays out, Ethereum must clear intermediate hurdles. A decisive move above $2,344 would confirm recovery strength and validate the path toward $2,500 and potentially higher levels. Failure to sustain current support, however, would undermine the bullish setup. A loss of the $2,000 level would expose ETH to renewed downside risk, with $1,796 emerging as the next major support area.

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Crypto World

UK Central Bank to Launch Onchain Settlement Infrastructure Pilot

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UAE, Singapore, China, Business, New York, Bank of England, United Kingdom, CBDC, Tokenization

The Bank of England has launched a new industry experimentation initiative to explore how tokenized assets could be settled using synchronized, atomic settlement in British pounds sterling as part of efforts to modernize the UK’s real-time gross settlement (RTGS) infrastructure.

The Synchronisation Lab initiative will allow 18 selected companies to test delivery-versus-payment and payment-versus-payment settlement between the BoE’s next-generation RTGS core ledger, known as RT2, and external distributed-ledger platforms, in a non-live environment without using real money, according to a bank statement.

The six-month pilot, scheduled to start in spring 2026, is intended to validate the central bank’s design choices for synchronized settlement, assess interoperability between central bank money and tokenized assets, and inform the development of a potential future live RTGS synchronization capability.

Originally announced in October, the initiative brings together 18 participants, including market infrastructure providers, banks, fintechs and decentralized-technology companies to test use cases spanning tokenized securities settlement, collateral optimisation, foreign exchange and digital-money issuance.

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UAE, Singapore, China, Business, New York, Bank of England, United Kingdom, CBDC, Tokenization
Source: Chainlink

Among the Web3 participants, Chainlink and UAC Labs will test decentralized approaches to coordinating synchronized settlement between central bank money and assets issued on distributed-ledger platforms. Companies such as Ctrl Alt and Monee will focus on delivery-versus-payment settlement for tokenized gilts and other securities.

Other participants, including Tokenovate and Atumly, will test conditional margin payment workflows and digital-money issuance and redemption flows designed to coordinate with RTGS settlement. The roster also includes Swift and LSEG.

The bank said the work of the lab initiative will be used to refine the design of its RTGS synchronization capability and support further development work, with participants expected to present their use cases and findings following the conclusion of the program.

Related: UK Lords launch stablecoin inquiry as Bank of England moves to finalize rules

Global central banks expand pilots

The Bank of England is just one of a roster of central banks exploring how tokenization, programmable settlement and digital currencies could reshape their core monetary and payment systems.

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In May, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank for International Settlements published research from Project Pine examining how smart contracts could support monetary policy in tokenized financial systems, including a prototype toolkit for faster and more flexible central bank actions on programmable ledgers.

In October, the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced BLOOM, an initiative aimed at expanding settlement infrastructure to support transactions in tokenized bank liabilities and regulated stablecoins.