Crypto World
What is a DCM? The license behind prediction markets
Every legal event contract in America is listed by a designated contract market, a federal exchange license created for grain futures and now the most sought-after permission slip in crypto. Here is what a DCM actually is, what its holder must do, why the licenses have been changing hands, and what the status does and does not protect.
Summary
- A designated contract market is an exchange registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under Section 5 of the Commodity Exchange Act, permitted to list futures, options, and event contracts and to serve retail customers directly.
- DCMs must comply continuously with 23 statutory core principles covering manipulation prevention, surveillance, rule enforcement, financial integrity, and recordkeeping, verified through periodic rule enforcement reviews.
- A DCM cannot function alone: contracts must clear through a registered derivatives clearing organization, and customer-facing brokerage generally involves a futures commission merchant, making the framework a three-license structure.
- The license became strategically valuable when prediction markets scaled: Kalshi obtained DCM status in 2021, Crypto.com assembled the full set of registrations, Gemini’s entity was certified, and Robinhood and Susquehanna acquired an existing licensed exchange and clearinghouse and rebranded it.
- Core Principle 3 makes the exchange the frontline regulator of its own market, an obligation the CFTC underlined in a 2026 advisory telling venues to vet event contract design and monitor trading as volumes grow.
The single most consequential fact about prediction markets in the United States is one almost nobody outside compliance departments can name: the specific federal registration that makes them legal. It is called a designated contract market, abbreviated DCM, and it was designed for exchanges trading futures on physical commodities. Nothing about grain or crude oil anticipated a contract on which party controls the Senate, yet the same registration category now underpins the entire American event-contract industry, from Kalshi’s political markets to the World Cup contracts routed through a Robinhood-affiliated venue. Understanding what a DCM is explains a great deal that otherwise looks arbitrary: why some platforms can serve US retail customers and others cannot, why exchanges have been bought rather than built, why the CFTC keeps addressing exchanges instead of traders, and what protection the license actually confers on someone with money at risk.
What the license is
A designated contract market is a board of trade, in the statute’s antique phrasing, that operates under CFTC oversight pursuant to Section 5 of the Commodity Exchange Act, with the detailed requirements set out in Part 38 of the Commission’s regulations.
Two features define it. First, breadth of product: a DCM may list futures and options contracts on all types of commodities, a category federal law defines expansively enough to include interest rates, indices, digital assets, and the occurrence of events. Second, breadth of access: a DCM may admit all types of traders, including retail customers, which is the property that matters most for this industry. Certain instruments, notably swaps, are generally off-limits to non-professional participants unless executed on a DCM, so the license is the mechanism by which ordinary people gain lawful access to products otherwise restricted to institutions.
Registration is not a one-time approval. A DCM must comply at all times with 23 core principles written into the statute, covering prevention of market manipulation, trade surveillance, position limits, financial integrity of transactions, protection of market participants, recordkeeping, and the operation of a credible self-regulatory program. The Commission’s Division of Market Oversight examines compliance through periodic rule enforcement reviews, which are exactly what the name suggests: audits of whether the exchange is enforcing its own rulebook.
The three-license structure
A DCM registration on its own does not produce a functioning market, and the reason clarifies most of the corporate activity in this sector.
Three categories divide the regulated derivatives stack. Futures commission merchants act as brokers, soliciting and accepting customer orders and holding customer margin in segregated accounts. Designated contract markets are the exchanges where contracts are listed and matched. Derivatives clearing organizations are the clearinghouses that guarantee trades, manage margin, and stand between counterparties to absorb default risk. Every contract a DCM lists must clear through a registered DCO, which means an exchange without clearing access is an exchange that cannot operate.
The separation is deliberate, designed to limit conflicts of interest by keeping the party that brokers orders, the party that matches them, and the party that guarantees them distinct. In practice the largest operators assemble more than one registration, which is why announcements of a firm obtaining its full set of licenses represent genuine capability expansion and not paperwork. It also explains why the assets changing hands in this sector tend to be exchange-and-clearinghouse pairs: buying only half the stack leaves the buyer dependent on someone else for the other half.
Why the license became valuable
For most of its history the DCM category was unglamorous infrastructure. Prediction markets changed that, and the sequence is worth following.
Kalshi obtained DCM designation in 2021, the first purpose-built prediction market to do so, and registered an affiliated clearinghouse in 2024, giving it the complete stack. That combination is what allowed a startup to offer federally regulated event contracts to American retail customers, and it converted regulatory status into the company’s primary competitive asset. As the category grew, the CFTC saw a marked increase in DCM applications from firms focused on prediction markets, enough that the Commission issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking in March 2026 partly in response. A crypto-native exchange entity affiliated with Gemini was certified as a DCM, a notable expansion of the Commission’s willingness to license firms originating in digital assets, though the entity operates as a centralized venue with conventional clearing, fiat collateral, and standard identity checks. Crypto.com’s derivatives arm assembled the full complement of registrations. Interactive Brokers built ForecastEx.
And then came the transaction that revealed the license’s true nature as an asset: Robinhood, alongside Susquehanna International Group, acquired an existing CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, previously operating under other names, and rebranded it. That is the license changing hands. The regulatory standing that Kalshi spent years and litigation securing was, for a well-capitalized buyer, available for purchase. The Commission’s own rules even contemplate this pathway, with procedures for reinstating dormant contract markets that have stopped listing products. A license is a durable, transferable good, and the industry learned that lesson in public.
The frontline regulator burden
The obligation that shapes daily practice most is Core Principle 3, which requires a DCM to ensure the contracts it lists are not readily susceptible to manipulation and to conduct surveillance of trading in them.
The Commission spelled out what that means for event contracts in a March 2026 advisory addressed to DCMs, reminding them that these products sit fully under the Commodity Exchange Act and Part 38, pointing to Appendix C as the guide for listing and surveillance, and stating plainly that exchanges are the frontline regulators of their own markets. The advisory flagged sports and similar real-world contracts as higher risk, signaling that venues listing them face a higher bar to show the products are not gambling in substance, and it told exchanges to reassess compliance continuously as volumes and product complexity grow.
The practical translation is that a DCM is not merely a permission to list. It is an obligation to police: to vet whether each contract’s resolution criteria and underlying market can be manipulated, to monitor trading for abuse including by participants with non-public information, to enforce its rulebook against its own customers, and to document all of it for examination. The surveillance and enforcement programs that prediction market venues have been publicizing, screening tools blocking candidates from trading their own races, integrity vendors flagging athletes and officials, in-app reporting for suspicious activity, are core-principle compliance made visible, undertaken by exchanges that answer for their markets’ integrity in a way no offshore venue does.
How a firm actually gets one
The pathway matters, because the choice between applying and acquiring has shaped the competitive landscape more than any product decision.
The application route runs through Part 38 of the Commission’s regulations, with the criteria and procedures set out in the Commodity Exchange Act and elaborated in appendices providing guidance to applicants. A prospective DCM must show, in detail and in advance, how it will satisfy each core principle: the design of its contracts and why they resist manipulation, its trade surveillance systems and the staff running them, its rulebook and disciplinary procedures, its financial resources, its technology and system safeguards, its recordkeeping, its emergency authority, and its governance including conflict-of-interest arrangements. The submission is a description of an operating exchange written before the exchange operates, and the Commission reviews it against a statutory clock while asking questions. Firms in this space have described the process as measured in quarters, not weeks, and it consumes senior legal and compliance capacity throughout.
The acquisition route is faster and increasingly common. Licenses attach to entities, so buying the entity conveys the standing, subject to the Commission’s review of the change in control and continued compliance. The Commission’s rules also address contract markets that have gone dormant, meaning they hold designation but have stopped listing products: a dormant DCM must apply for reinstatement before listing or relisting, though the application may rely on previously submitted materials that still accurately describe conditions. That provision is the formal basis for what the market saw this year, when a licensed exchange and clearinghouse that had passed through multiple owners and business models was acquired and relaunched under a new name and a new strategy. The regulatory achievement of one era becomes the acquisition target of the next.
The strategic consequence deserves to be stated plainly, because it cuts against the intuition that regulation protects incumbents. In this category, the license is a purchasable input with a market price, and the durable advantages sit elsewhere: in distribution, in liquidity relationships, in brand, and in the compliance organization that keeps a venue in good standing once it has one. A startup that treats its DCM registration as its moat has misidentified its asset, and the events of this year in prediction markets are the demonstration.
What the license does and does not protect
For a participant deciding where to trade, the honest accounting has two columns.
What DCM status provides: a federally supervised venue subject to examination; contracts cleared through a registered clearinghouse that guarantees performance and manages default risk; customer funds held under the segregation rules applying to regulated derivatives intermediaries; exchange rules the venue is obliged to enforce; a surveillance program with a regulator checking that it functions; and a defined complaint and enforcement path when something goes wrong. Against an unlicensed offshore book, that is a substantial difference in kind.
What it does not provide: any guarantee that a contract is a good trade, any protection against losing the amount staked, any assurance that a market will resolve the way an ordinary reading of events suggests, or any immunity from the legal turbulence around the category. A DCM’s contracts remain subject to the Commission’s authority to review and prohibit products involving certain enumerated activities, state gaming regulators continue to contest sports contracts regardless of federal registration, and pending federal legislation could remove entire product categories from licensed venues. Registration answers the question of whether the venue is lawful. It does not answer whether the product will still be listed next year, which is the live question in this category and the reason product availability should be treated as provisional.
A closing note on the category’s odd historical shape, because it explains why the license fits prediction markets so imperfectly. The designated contract market framework was built for exchanges trading standardized futures on physical commodities, where the underlying is a bushel or a barrel, the participants are producers and processors hedging real inventory, and speculation exists to give those hedgers someone to trade with. Every core principle assumes that world: contract design that resists manipulation of a physical market, position limits protecting a deliverable supply, surveillance aimed at cornering. Event contracts arrive with no deliverable supply, no producers, and an underlying that is an occurrence rather than a commodity, and the framework has been asked to stretch across that gap by analogy.
It has stretched further than most observers expected, which is a testament to how broadly federal law defines a commodity, and the strain is visible in exactly the places the industry fights: whether a contract on a game “involves gaming,” whether an exchange can meaningfully surveil manipulation of an election, whether position limits mean anything on a binary payout. The pending rulemaking on public-interest determinations is the Commission’s attempt to fit the old frame to the new object, and the parallel legislative proposals are attempts to decide the question in one move instead. Either way, the underlying reality is worth carrying: the entire American prediction market industry operates on a permission structure designed for grain, and the fit is the argument.
A final orientation point for readers tracking the sector. Because the license is the gate, most of the important news in prediction markets is license news, and it is usually reported in language that obscures the stakes. An exchange “receiving CFTC approval” may mean a full designation, an amendment expanding an existing registration, a clearinghouse registration completing a stack, or a change-of-control approval following an acquisition, and those are very different events with very different competitive consequences. A firm “self-certifying” a contract is not receiving approval at all. And an entity described as “CFTC-regulated” may hold any one of the three registrations, only one of which permits listing contracts for retail trading.
Reading these announcements precisely is the difference between understanding the competitive map and repeating a press release. The questions worth asking of any such story are simple: which registration, held by which legal entity, permitting what activity, and does the group also control clearing. Answer those four and the strategic meaning of almost any development in this sector becomes legible, including the ones the participants would prefer to leave vague. Crypto.news has also explained the product these venues list,what a DCM may do without asking,the industry these licenses built, and the wider regulatory structure.
Frequently asked questions
What does DCM stand for and what is it?
Designated contract market: an exchange registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under Section 5 of the Commodity Exchange Act and Part 38 of the Commission’s regulations. DCMs may list futures, options, and event contracts on all types of commodities, and may admit retail customers directly, which is what makes lawful retail access to these products possible in the United States.
Why do prediction markets need this specific license?
Because event contracts are derivatives under federal law, and only a registered exchange may list them for trading by US customers. Without DCM status a venue cannot lawfully offer these products to American retail participants, which is why every domestic prediction market operates through one, either obtained directly or acquired.
What are the core principles?
Twenty-three statutory requirements a DCM must satisfy continuously, covering prevention of manipulation, contract design, trade surveillance, position limits, financial integrity, participant protection, recordkeeping, and self-regulation. The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight verifies compliance through periodic rule enforcement reviews, which examine whether the exchange actually enforces its own rulebook.
Can an exchange operate with a DCM license alone?
No. Every contract listed on a DCM must clear through a registered derivatives clearing organization, and customer brokerage generally involves a futures commission merchant. The three registrations serve different functions, brokering, listing, and clearing, and are deliberately separated to limit conflicts of interest, which is why major operators assemble more than one.
Why have companies been buying DCMs rather than applying?
Because the license is a transferable asset and applications take time. Robinhood and Susquehanna acquired an existing licensed exchange and clearinghouse and rebranded it, obtaining in a transaction the standing that a startup builds over years. The Commission’s rules even provide for reinstating dormant contract markets, making acquisition a recognized pathway.
What is Core Principle 3 and why does it matter for event contracts?
It requires a DCM to list only contracts not readily susceptible to manipulation and to conduct surveillance of trading in them. The CFTC’s March 2026 advisory applied this directly to prediction markets, describing exchanges as the frontline regulators of their own venues, pointing to Appendix C for listing and surveillance guidance, and flagging sports contracts as higher risk requiring a stronger showing that they are not gambling in substance.
Does trading on a DCM make me safe?
Safer in specific, limited ways. You get a supervised venue, clearinghouse-guaranteed performance, customer fund segregation, enforceable exchange rules, and a regulator with examination authority. You do not get protection from losing your stake, assurance that a market resolves as you expect, or immunity from the legal uncertainty around the category, including the possibility that specific contract types are prohibited.
Can the CFTC stop a DCM from listing a contract?
Yes, under a special provision of the Commodity Exchange Act permitting the Commission to prohibit event contracts that involve certain enumerated activities, including gaming and activity unlawful under state law, when it determines they are contrary to the public interest. The Commission has used that authority against political contracts and proposed a rulemaking in June 2026 to define the process and terms more clearly. This is educational information, not investment or legal advice.
Disclaimer: This article is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Regulatory requirements, license holdings, and product availability change, and the legal treatment of event contracts is subject to active litigation, rulemaking, and pending legislation. Always do your own research. Information is accurate as of July 27, 2026.
A federal judge has rejected the CFTC’s request to stop Wisconsin from enforcing state gambling laws against federally regulated prediction market platforms.
Summary
- Judge William Griesbach denied the CFTC’s request for a preliminary injunction against Wisconsin.
- The court found sports event contracts may fall within Wisconsin’s commercial gambling laws.
- Wisconsin is pursuing cases against Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase.
- The CFTC plans to appeal the ruling and continue defending its claimed jurisdiction.
Wisconsin court rejects CFTC injunction
Judge William Griesbach of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Wisconsin denied the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s attempt to block Wisconsin from applying its gambling laws to prediction market operators.
The CFTC filed the federal case in April after Wisconsin sued Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase. Wisconsin alleges that sports event contracts offered through these platforms amount to unlicensed sports betting.
Griesbach found that the CFTC had not shown that it was likely to succeed on the merits, face irreparable harm, or benefit from the balance of equities required for a preliminary injunction.
The court also rejected requests from Kalshi and Crypto.com to intervene and seek preliminary relief in the federal dispute.
The CFTC argued that sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore fall under its exclusive federal authority. However, Griesbach concluded that the agency had not shown that sports contracts meet the law’s definition of swaps.
That finding alone was enough to deny the injunction, according to the court’s reasoning.
State gambling laws may cover sports contracts
Griesbach also rejected the CFTC’s argument that the Commodity Exchange Act prevents Wisconsin from applying its gambling statutes to CFTC-regulated platforms.
“Wisconsin’s gambling statutes do not conflict with federal commodities regulations and are not preempted by them,” the judge wrote.
The decision suggests that federal registration does not automatically shield a platform from state gambling enforcement when its contracts are tied to sporting outcomes.
Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul has described these contracts as sports bets presented as financial products.
“Thinly disguising unlawful conduct doesn’t make it lawful,” Kaul said when the state announced its lawsuits in April. “These companies’ alleged facilitation of sports betting in Wisconsin should be shut down.”
Legal analyst Daniel Wallach said the five state cases are likely to return to Wisconsin courts because the federal statute does not completely preempt state law. State judges could then consider injunctions preventing the platforms from offering sports contracts in Wisconsin.
CFTC faces pressure from 44 states
The ruling adds to a wider challenge to the CFTC’s attempt to establish national control over prediction markets.
Attorneys general from 44 states have urged the regulator to withdraw and rewrite proposed amendments to Rule 40.11. Their letter argues that the framework exceeds the CFTC’s authority under the Commodity Exchange Act and intrudes into gambling oversight traditionally handled by states.
Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson led the coalition, which submitted its objections as the public comment period closed. The states argued that Congress had not clearly authorized the CFTC to assume control over sports betting markets.
“States have long regulated gambling—including sports bets. The federal government has not,” the letter stated, according to the filing covered by crypto.news.
The dispute matters for US users because platform access may increasingly depend on where they live. If state laws apply alongside federal commodities rules, Kalshi, Polymarket, and similar operators could face different licensing requirements or restrictions across the country.
Conflicting rulings leave prediction markets uncertain
Wisconsin’s decision contrasts with a ruling issued in Minnesota earlier this week.
U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez temporarily blocked Minnesota’s new prediction market ban after finding that the CFTC, Kalshi, and Polymarket were likely to succeed in their federal preemption challenge. The injunction allows the platforms to continue operating in Minnesota while the case proceeds, according to the Associated Press.
The different outcomes leave the industry without a consistent national standard. Courts in Wisconsin and New York have favored state authority, while Minnesota’s ruling supports the CFTC’s claim that some event contracts fall under exclusive federal oversight.
A CFTC spokesperson said the agency was disappointed with the Wisconsin decision and would appeal. The next stage could determine whether Wisconsin’s lawsuits proceed in state court and whether the affected platforms must stop offering sports contracts there.
Dogecoin is trading near $0.07, up 0.3% over the past day after another quiet session. However, the muted move hides a weaker weekly trend. Billy Markus just reminded the market why people embraced DOGE in the first place. The full context offers another look at Dogecoin’s real-world utility.
Markus, posting as Shibetoshi Nakamoto on X, replied to a prompt from crypto retirement platform iTrustCapital about the most crypto thing he had done. He answered, “I bought a ride in the Vegas Loop with Dogecoin.” He added it was not that weekend, but it remained his favorite crypto experience. The comment referenced The Boring Company’s 2022 decision to accept DOGE through BitPay.
At launch, a single ride cost about $1.50, while a day pass cost $2.50. Elon Musk also backed the payment option, saying he would support Dogecoin wherever possible. Markus, still pointing to that purchase years later, says more about DOGE’s everyday appeal than many marketing campaigns.
Meanwhile, the post arrived during another difficult stretch for crypto markets. The Senate delayed further consideration of the Clarity Act before the August recess. At the same time, roughly $604 million in crypto positions were liquidated during a sharp market selloff. That combination kept pressure on risk assets, including Dogecoin.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
Can Dogecoin Price Break Back Above $0.10 Before the Clarity Act Deadline?
At $0.07064, DOGE is holding just above the $0.07 floor, but only by a slim margin. The session low reached about $0.0693, showing sellers are still pressing that support. A decisive break below $0.07 could expose the $0.064 to $0.068 range, where buyers previously stepped in.
Futures open interest has eased alongside the recent price decline, suggesting leveraged longs continue leaving the market. That points to more than a simple spot weakness. Still, price has not confirmed a breakdown, leaving the current support level in focus for the next move.
The previous reference to $0.40 VWAP support is no longer relevant at current prices. Instead, analysts are watching whether DOGE can reclaim $0.08 before discussing a stronger recovery. Until then, the market remains well below major resistance, and momentum still favors caution.
If the Clarity Act advances before the August recess, sentiment could improve. Fresh catalysts from Elon Musk or renewed payment integrations may also help. In that case, a move back above $0.08 could reopen the path toward $0.10.
The base case remains a consolidation between $0.07 and $0.08 as traders weigh regulation and macro risks. However, a daily close below $0.07 with rising volume would strengthen the bearish outlook. Until DOGE creates a clear distance from that level, the utility story remains stronger than the chart.
Trade Dogecoin on Bybit and Get a Chance to Win Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop
Maxi Doge Targets Early Mover Upside as DOGE Tests Key Levels
DOGE at $0.07 with a multi-billion-dollar market cap means the math on a 10x from here requires a full bull cycle and sustained retail inflows. Traders rotating capital for higher-asymmetry exposure are looking earlier in the lifecycle, which is exactly where Maxi Doge ($MAXI) sits.
The Clarity Act delay and broader risk-off pressure are squeezing established meme coins hardest; early-stage presales carry their own risks but aren’t subject to the same open-interest unwind dynamics.
$MAXI is a meme token built on Ethereum (ERC-20) positioned around a 240-lb canine mascot embodying 1000x leverage trading culture, think gym-bro meets trading desk, which lands well with the retail demographic that drives meme coin volume.
The presale has raised $4.8 million at a current price of $0.0002831, with dynamic staking APY live for holders. Features include holder-only trading competitions with leaderboard rewards and a Maxi Fund treasury earmarked for liquidity and partnerships. DYOR applies harder here than on listed assets.
Discover: The Best Token Presales
The post Dogecoin Co-Founder Billy Markus Revives Viral Vegas Loop Payment Memory appeared first on Cryptonews.
Microsoft delivered another blockbuster quarter, beating Wall Street expectations on revenue, earnings, and operating income as Azure cloud services and artificial intelligence continued to drive growth.
The stronger-than-expected results reinforced investor confidence that massive AI infrastructure investments are translating into accelerating revenue, a closely watched trend across technology and crypto markets alike.
Microsoft Crushes Q4 as Azure Growth Fuels AI Boom
The software giant reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $90.0 billion, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $87.7 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $4.74, well above the consensus estimate of $4.25, while operating income reached $40.6 billion, also topping forecasts.
Azure Emerges as the Standout Performer
The biggest surprise came from Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud business.
Revenue from the segment climbed 32% year over year to $39.3 billion, while Azure and other cloud services revenue surged 43%, comfortably ahead of prior company guidance that had pointed to growth closer to the high-30% range.
Microsoft Cloud generated $59.3 billion in quarterly revenue, up 27% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, commercial remaining performance obligations—a key measure of future contracted revenue—jumped 84% to $678 billion, highlighting sustained enterprise demand.
CEO Satya Nadella credited Microsoft’s AI strategy for the performance.
“We are advancing the frontier on the cost-to-outcome curve, ensuring every customer can turn tokens into business results,” Nadella said.
He also revealed that Azure generated more than $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time during fiscal 2026, while Microsoft 365 Copilot surpassed 30 million paid seats, demonstrating growing enterprise adoption of generative AI.
AI Spending Continues to Accelerate
Microsoft’s earnings also showed that its aggressive AI investments remain substantial.
Operating cash flow reached $55.4 billion during the quarter, while capital expenditures continued climbing as the company expanded data center capacity to support AI workloads.
Property and equipment spending reached nearly $35.8 billion during the quarter and almost $116 billion for the full fiscal year, underscoring Microsoft’s commitment to building AI infrastructure despite investor scrutiny over rising costs.
The company also returned $10.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter.
Why Crypto Investors Are Watching
Although Microsoft’s earnings are not directly tied to digital assets, the results carry important implications for crypto markets.
Bitcoin miners, AI-related blockchain projects, decentralized infrastructure networks, and tokenized computing platforms all benefit from continued enterprise investment in cloud infrastructure and artificial intelligence.
Strong demand for AI services also reinforces the broader investment narrative that has fueled capital flows into technology stocks and AI-linked crypto assets throughout 2026.
Microsoft’s results arrive as investors increasingly evaluate whether enormous AI infrastructure spending is generating sustainable returns. This quarter’s performance suggests demand continues to outpace supply, easing concerns that cloud providers may be overbuilding capacity.
What’s Next?
Attention now turns to Microsoft’s earnings conference call, where executives are expected to provide guidance on Azure growth, capital expenditures, operating margins, and fiscal 2027 expectations.
For investors across both traditional finance and crypto markets, Microsoft’s latest results offer another indication that enterprise AI adoption continues accelerating. Whether that momentum remains strong through the remainder of the year could influence sentiment across technology stocks, AI infrastructure providers, and digital asset sectors closely tied to the expanding artificial intelligence ecosystem.
The post Microsoft Crushes Q4 as Azure Growth Fuels AI Boom, How Should Traders Position? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
“BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory,” stated Fidelity in its Q3 Signals Report on Tuesday.
However, bitcoin is currently trading around 50% below its all-time high, which is still shallow compared to previous bear market bottoms.
October Eyed as Key Cycle Timeframe
The Yardstick metric compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to network hashrate via a normalized Z-score, with values below -1 standard deviation indicating undervaluation.
It essentially measures whether the asset is trading at a fair price relative to the “energy cost” of its security. Low or negative readings signal undervaluation or cheap bitcoin, while high readings signal overvaluation and expensive BTC. The metric has been firmly in the “undervalued” zone for 83% of the past 92 days.
Bitcoin miners have faced increasing pressure as prices have fallen, yet the total hash rate has only fallen around 22% from its peak, “highlighting miner resilience.”
“As a result, the Yardstick is currently hovering near historic lows. This suggests BTC may be trading at a substantial discount relative to the energy securing the network.”
Two signals we’re watching are approaching significant levels.
BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory.
Could the market be nearing a bottom?
Explore the data in our Q3 2026 Signals Report… pic.twitter.com/XsliCQG9Lx
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) July 28, 2026
This has likely happened because this cycle has lower price volatility than previous ones, and the mining industry has matured, with miners now managing energy costs more efficiently, said Fidelity.
Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms, which lasted almost 300 days in previous cycles.
“This bear market has experienced 203 days to date, suggesting October 2026 may represent a key timeframe for investors focused on cycle dynamics.”
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, said, “Bitcoin is approaching a historically important zone.” BTC’s long-term holder to short-term holder realized cap ratio has reached 3.9, approaching the level above 4 that preceded major price bottoms in previous cycles.
The metric shows realized capital increasingly concentrated among long-term holders with strong conviction, while short-term speculative participation remains weak, indicating an advanced accumulation phase.
“This does not guarantee that the exact bottom is already in, but it shows that the market is approaching a zone previously associated with major cycle bottoms.”
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin has retreated by 5.5% from its five-week high of $67,000 on July 21, falling to just under $63,000 on Tuesday. However, the asset has made a minor recovery to tap $64,000 three times over the past 12 hours, failing to break resistance there.
Swissblock reported on Wednesday that Bitcoin’s “reconstruction phase” has hit another obstacle as momentum has escaped its most extreme negative readings but has now stalled.
“The structure continues to stabilize, but buying participation has not expanded enough to carry price forward,” they said.
The post Fidelity Flags October and Bitcoin Bottom as ‘Yardstick’ Hits Historic Lows appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Organizations representing law enforcement officials in the US have reportedly proposed changes to a comprehensive cryptocurrency market structure bill under consideration in the Senate, with only days left until the chamber breaks for a month-long recess.
According to a Tuesday Politico report, the National Association of Assistant US Attorneys and the National District Attorneys Association sent a letter to the White House asking for changes on provisions regarding developers in the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. The changes proposed to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) within the CLARITY Act included that guidelines on developers not “create, expand, or modify criminal liability under Federal law.”
In response to reports on the proposed changes, White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said that the provisions were “not even close” to the Trump administration’s position, and implied that it was not the result of “productive negotiations.” Senator Catherine Cortez Masto has reportedly been pushing the White House to address the BRCA before any potential vote.
The provisions came as the CLARITY Act faces pushback from many Democrats over ethics rules in the bill regarding US President Donald Trump’s crypto investments, which netted him $1.4 billion in 2025. As of Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune had not scheduled a vote on the legislation before the chamber breaks for state work periods.
Related: Wyden urges Senate leaders to keep dev protections in crypto bill
The US Senate is scheduled to start state work periods from Aug. 7 to Sept. 14, giving lawmakers a limited window to pass crypto market structure before the recess and potential complications from the 2026 midterm elections in November. Thune told reporters last week that the Senate was unlikely to vote on the bill before the August recess.
”Even if CLARITY were brought up today, the procedural steps — cloture → amendment process → second cloture → up to 30 hours of debate — make finishing before recess extremely difficult without [unanimous consent] agreement to waive process, which is rare on contested bills,” said Anne Kelley, a partner at consulting firm Mercury Strategies, in a Monday X post.
CLARITY could shift crypto authority to US commodities regulator
One of the key points of the crypto market structure bill would be to change the regulatory purview over digital asset largely from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which currently has fewer tools and resources to address enforcement and oversight issues. Both agencies are also currently understaffed at the leadership level, with only one CFTC chair and three SEC commissioners.
Magazine: Here’s why the CLARITY Act’s ethics deal may be so hard to reach
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An ARK Invest analyst says the cryptocurrency industry is entering what he describes as its biggest consolidation phase yet, with revenue increasingly concentrated among a handful of dominant protocols.
In a Wednesday post on X, Lorenzo Valente, a research associate at ARK Invest, said investors have become increasingly selective, making it harder for crypto projects and exchanges without strong product-market fit to attract capital. As weaker projects struggle or shut down, revenue is becoming concentrated among a small number of dominant protocols, he said.
As evidence, Valente said perpetual futures exchange Hyperliquid and memecoin launchpad Pump.fun account for roughly 67% of total crypto application revenue. Including synthetic dollar protocol Ethena raises the top three’s combined share to nearly 80%, highlighting what he described as record-high revenue concentration across the sector.
Source: Lorenzo Valente
Valente added that he expects the trend to accelerate in the coming months, leading to more mergers and acquisitions, Chapter 11 bankruptcies, project shutdowns and acqui-hires. Despite the shakeout, he described the consolidation as “extremely bullish” for the crypto industry.
Related: ARK pushes back against a16z’s ‘TradFi wants blockchain, not DeFi’ claim
Exchange closures add to consolidation narrative
The comments come as several crypto exchanges have announced plans to wind down operations in recent days, underscoring mounting pressures across parts of the industry.
Last week, BitMEX announced it would shut down its exchange in September after a strategic review by owner HDR Global Trading. The exchange had recently accelerated the delisting of trading pairs and derivative contracts, citing insufficient trading interest.
Days later, BitMart announced it would end trading services on Aug. 26 before winding down operations entirely in January 2027. The exchange said the decision followed a review of its operating conditions, market environment and future strategic direction.
Consolidation has also come through acquisitions. Earlier this month, Bybit launched a locally operated exchange in Indonesia after acquiring a majority stake in local digital asset firm NOBI, expanding its presence in one of Asia’s largest crypto markets.
Source: BitMEX
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President Donald Trump threatened a forceful response after Iran fired missiles at U.S. forces in Jordan, ending a brief pause in fighting and sending oil prices sharply higher.
Summary
- Trump vowed to hit Iran “very hard” after missiles targeted American forces in Jordan.
- Brent crude jumped nearly 8% as traders priced in renewed risks to Middle East supplies.
- The Dow fell 2.14%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also closed sharply lower.
- Bitcoin briefly recovered to $64,435 after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged.
Trump vows retaliation after Iran missile attack
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards fired several ballistic missiles at a U.S. air base and military center in Jordan. U.S. officials said American forces intercepted the missiles, with no immediate reports of casualties.
Trump promised retaliation during comments at the White House.
“So it’s our turn,” Trump said. “We’re going to hit them very hard.”
Trump left open the possibility of a future agreement with Tehran but gave no details about the timing or scale of a U.S. response. He also said he had been briefed about a drone strike on a U.S.-owned gas storage tanker at Egypt’s Damietta port.
American and Saudi forces separately carried out joint strikes against Iran-backed groups in Iraq. The attacks killed at least 20 members of the Popular Mobilization Forces, according to the group.
Saudi Arabia’s direct involvement marks a further expansion of the conflict. Riyadh had previously tried to limit its military role while defending oil facilities and shipping routes from attacks linked to Tehran-backed groups.
Oil jumps as shipping risks return
Oil prices surged as traders reassessed the chances of prolonged disruption across the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Brent crude futures settled $6.65, or 7.91%, higher at $90.74 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 6.56% to $84.46. The rally accelerated after Trump promised further action against Iran.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, while Houthi militants continued to threaten vessels near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Only five commodity ships passed through Bab el-Mandeb on Wednesday, down from 39 on Tuesday.
Falling U.S. inventories added to the price pressure. Government data showed crude stockpiles declined by 7.2 million barrels to 404.5 million, their lowest level since 2018.
US Treasury targets Iran-linked crypto payments
Washington also expanded its financial campaign against Tehran. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned two companies accused of operating an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-backed maritime insurance scheme.
Treasury officials said the firms forced commercial vessels to buy mandatory insurance before passing through the Strait of Hormuz. One of the sanctioned companies, HormuzSafe Marine Services Authority, allegedly accepted Bitcoin and other digital assets to bypass Western sanctions.
“The United States will not allow Iran to hold global commerce hostage or use international shipping to finance the IRGC’s terrorism, aggression, and repression,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.
The action also covered vessels accused of transporting Iranian crude and petrochemical products. Treasury has sanctioned more than 100 vessels linked to Iran’s shadow fleet since the start of 2026.
For U.S. crypto businesses, the action raises sanctions-compliance risks around wallets or payments tied to Iranian shipping operations.
Bitcoin recovers as US stocks close lower
Wall Street ended the session sharply lower as rising oil prices, renewed fighting and concerns about artificial intelligence spending weighed on risk appetite.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.14%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.50%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.68%, extending its decline from its June record.
Bitcoin initially fell below $64,000 following reports of the Iranian attack. It later recovered to about $64,435 after the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Three of the 12 policymakers voted for a quarter-point increase.
Markets will now focus on Trump’s response, access through the Strait of Hormuz, and whether higher energy prices push the Fed toward a September rate increase. Further military action could restore selling pressure across stocks and crypto while keeping oil prices elevated.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told markets on Wednesday to stop trading his intentions and start trading the data. Participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee, he said.
The remark landed hours after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held rates steady in a 9 to 3 vote. Warsh refused to call the outcome a pause.
Why Warsh Told Markets to Play the Ball
Warsh built his press conference around one message. Inflation sits above target, and the committee intends to bring it down.
The FOMC statement kept the federal funds range at 3.50% to 3.75%. It carried no forward guidance, a clear break from the Jerome Powell era.
Warsh also rejected the idea of a flexible goal. Five years of elevated prices, he argued, left an impression that the Fed quietly tolerated inflation above 2%.
He played down the June core Consumer Price Index (CPI) print as well. The trend matters more than any single month, he said, and inflation cannot be cured in nine weeks.
“We will deliver price stability,” Warsh assured.
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That pledge arrived with a condition. Where necessary and appropriate, Warsh said, the committee will not hesitate to act. His tone marked a shift from his first FOMC presser in June, which pushed risk assets lower.
How Bonds, SPY, and Bitcoin Responded
Warsh flagged that nominal and real yields now sit materially higher across the Treasury curve. The Fed is trying to stay out of that repricing, he added, and let the market signal come through unfiltered.
The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.620% after touching roughly 4.650% earlier in the session. Traders had spent the week weighing Fed rate hike odds before three dissenting Fed officials backed a quarter point increase.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) turned positive at $742.00, up 0.17%. Gold spot pushed above $4,100, its strongest level of the session.
Bitcoin (BTC) followed the rebound. Bitcoin’s latest price action put it near $64,237, up 0.84% over 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.29 trillion.
Even so, the long end stays under pressure after global bond yields climbed to their highest levels since 2008.
Why Peter Schiff Says Warsh Cannot Deliver
Not everyone accepted the framing. Peter Schiff, chief economist and chief executive at Euro Pacific Asset Management, argued that only the language has changed.
“For all of Warsh’s tough talk about the Fed’s newfound commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target it failed to hit under Powell, so far the Fed has done nothing differently with respect to interest rates or its balance sheet. It’s business as usual,” said Schiff.
Schiff pointed to the long end of the curve as his evidence. Investors are selling Treasuries and buying gold, he said, rather than taking the pledge at face value.
Warsh described the weeks ahead as a period of watchful thinking rather than watchful waiting. September will show whether the data, and not the referee, agrees with him. Meanwhile, US President Trump thinks the Fed chair is brilliant.
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The post Play the Ball, Says Warsh as Fed Keeps Inflation Front and Center; SPY, Bonds React appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Tether’s US-focused USAT stablecoin has launched on Celo, marking its second mainnet deployment after Ethereum and extending the token to a network widely used for digital-dollar payments.
Summary
- USAT now supports native minting and burning on Celo rather than relying solely on bridged tokens.
- Celo users can pay network gas fees with USAT through the blockchain’s CIP-64 fee abstraction.
- USAT has reached a market capitalization of about $185 million since launching in January.
- Tether recently led a $7 million Pact Labs round to expand USAT into US payroll payments.
USAT adds native issuance and gas payments on Celo
Tether announced the USAT deployment on Wednesday, several months after the two companies disclosed plans for the launch in March. Celo becomes the stablecoin’s second supported mainnet following its initial rollout on Ethereum.
USAT holders will be able to use native mint-and-burn functions on Celo. Native issuance reduces the need to move tokens through third-party bridges, which can introduce additional technical and custody risks.
The token can also be used to pay transaction fees on the network. Celo introduced this function through its CIP-64 upgrade, which allows approved ERC-20 tokens to serve as gas currencies instead of requiring users to hold a separate network token.
“Expanding USA₮ to Celo was a deliberate decision,” Tether US CEO Bo Hines said in a statement.
“USA₮ is designed to operate in environments where digital dollars are already being used at scale, and that is what Celo has built, with hundreds of thousands of people transacting on the network every day.”
Celo already handles 28% of cross-chain USDT transfers
Celo has become Tether’s largest USDT distribution network by weekly active users since the flagship stablecoin launched on the blockchain in 2024, according to the announcement.
The network accounts for 28% of cross-blockchain USDT transfers. It also holds more than 90% of the market for XAUt0, the omnichain version of Tether Gold.
Tether’s transparency data lists about $470 million in authorized USDT on Celo, making it the token’s eighth-largest supported blockchain by that measure. Authorized tokens include inventory available for future issuance and do not necessarily represent the amount currently circulating.
Separate market estimates place Celo’s total circulating stablecoin supply near $136 million. USDT accounts for about $78.8 million, giving Tether a 57.6% share of that market.
Opera has also launched a self-custodial stablecoin wallet on Celo with Tether’s support. The product has reportedly reached more than 18 million users worldwide.
USAT targets regulated dollar payments in the US
USAT launched in January and has grown to a market capitalization of about $185 million. That remains a small fraction of USDT’s roughly $180 billion supply, but the two tokens serve different markets.
Tether designed USAT around the requirements of the US GENIUS Act. The stablecoin maintains reserves in cash or liquid cash equivalents, including US Treasury securities, to support one-to-one redemptions.
Anchorage Digital Bank, a federally chartered crypto bank supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, issues the token. Hines joined Tether US after serving as executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets from January through August 2025.
The regulated structure places USAT at the center of Tether’s effort to expand beyond crypto trading and into everyday US payments.
Tether extends USAT into the $11 trillion payroll market
As crypto.news reported in mid-July, Tether led Pact Labs’ $7 million Series A funding round alongside Blockchange Ventures and Lasagna. The deal aims to integrate USAT into payroll and payment systems used by American employers.
Pact Labs plans to let businesses process wages through blockchain payment rails while adding embedded digital wallets and related financial services. Tether is targeting a US payroll market that processes more than $11 trillion annually.
Celo’s low fees, mobile-focused design and existing stablecoin activity could provide another settlement network for those applications. The blockchain began as a Layer 1 in 2020 before moving to an Ethereum Layer 2 built on the OP Stack in March 2025.
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