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What is impermanent loss? The hidden cost in DeFi

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What is impermanent loss? The hidden cost in DeFi

Providing liquidity to a decentralized exchange looks like easy passive income, until you withdraw and find you have less than if you had simply held your tokens. That gap is impermanent loss, the most misunderstood risk in DeFi. This guide explains what causes it, how to calculate it, and how to limit it.

Summary

  • Impermanent loss is the opportunity cost a liquidity provider suffers when the value of tokens deposited in a liquidity pool ends up lower than if the same tokens had simply been held in a wallet.
  • It is caused by price divergence: as the prices of the two paired tokens move apart, the automated market maker rebalances the pool, leaving the provider with more of the falling asset and less of the rising one.
  • It is called “impermanent” because the loss reverses if prices return to their original ratio, and it only becomes permanent when the provider withdraws.
  • Trading fees and token rewards offset impermanent loss, and a position is profitable when those earnings exceed the loss, but studies show that for many liquidity providers, the loss outweighs the fees.
  • The main ways to limit it are choosing stablecoin or correlated pairs, which barely diverge, and understanding the trade-off before providing liquidity to volatile pairs.

Impermanent loss is the opportunity cost a liquidity provider suffers when the value of the tokens they deposited into a decentralized exchange’s liquidity pool ends up lower than it would have been had they simply held those same tokens in their own wallet. It is one of the simplest-sounding yet most misunderstood risks in decentralized finance, and it catches a great many people who are drawn to liquidity provision by the promise of passive income.

The mechanism trips people up because it is counterintuitive: you can deposit two tokens into a pool, watch their prices rise, earn fees the whole time, and still end up worse off than if you had done nothing at all. The word impermanent makes it sound harmless, almost like a temporary inconvenience, but for liquidity providers in volatile pools, it can be a substantial and very real drag on returns.

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Understanding what causes it, how to estimate it, and how to limit it is essential for anyone thinking about supplying liquidity, because it is the single factor most likely to turn an apparently profitable strategy into a losing one.

The reason impermanent loss exists at all comes down to how decentralized exchanges work. Rather than matching buyers and sellers through an order book, most decentralized exchanges use automated market makers, pools of tokens governed by a mathematical formula that sets prices algorithmically. Liquidity providers fund these pools, and in return, they earn a share of the trading fees. The catch is that the same formula that lets the pool function also forces it to rebalance as prices move, and that rebalancing is what produces impermanent loss.

This guide walks through how liquidity pools and automated market makers work, exactly why price divergence creates the loss, a concrete worked example with numbers, how to calculate it, the role of fees and rewards in offsetting it, and the practical strategies that liquidity providers use to limit their exposure. The goal is to give you a clear enough mental model that you can judge, before committing any funds, whether providing liquidity to a given pool is likely to be worth it.

How liquidity pools and automated market makers work

To understand impermanent loss, you first have to understand the machinery that creates it, which is the automated market maker. A traditional exchange matches a buyer with a seller through an order book. A decentralized exchange built on an automated market maker, such as Uniswap or Curve, works differently: instead of matching counterparties, it holds pools of tokens that traders swap against directly, with prices set by a formula rather than by bids and offers.

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To make this work, the pools need to be funded, and that is where liquidity providers come in. A liquidity provider deposits a pair of tokens into a pool, most commonly in a 50-50 split by value, and in exchange earns a portion of the fees that traders pay to swap against that pool.

The formula that governs the most common type of pool is elegantly simple. Many automated market makers use a constant product formula, often written as x*y = k, where x and y are the quantities of the two tokens in the pool and k is a constant that must stay the same. Because k cannot change, any trade that removes some of one token must add a corresponding amount of the other, and the ratio between the two tokens is what sets the price.

When a trader buys one token from the pool, they reduce its quantity and increase the other’s, which moves the price, and the formula guarantees the pool always quotes a price based on its current balances. This design is what makes decentralized trading possible without a central order book, and it works beautifully for traders.

For liquidity providers, however, the same rebalancing mechanism is the source of the problem, because it means the composition of their deposited tokens changes automatically as prices move, and not in their favor.

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Why price divergence creates the loss

Here is the heart of the matter: impermanent loss arises specifically from divergence in the prices of the two tokens in a pool. When you deposit a pair of tokens, the automated market maker holds them in a balance dictated by its formula. If the market price of one token rises relative to the other, traders and arbitrageurs will buy the now-underpriced token from the pool until the pool’s price matches the wider market. That arbitrage is essential to keeping the pool’s prices accurate, but it has a consequence for you as a provider: the pool sells off some of the token that is rising in value and accumulates more of the token that is falling. In other words, the rebalancing leaves you holding more of the loser and less of the winner compared to what you started with.

When you later withdraw your liquidity, you receive your share of the pool in its rebalanced composition, and the total value of those tokens is less than the value you would have had if you had simply held your original deposit untouched. That shortfall is the impermanent loss. The critical insight is that it is driven entirely by how far the two tokens’ prices move relative to each other: the larger the divergence, the larger the loss, and it can occur whether the pool’s assets are rising or falling, because what matters is the change in the price ratio between them, not the direction.

The reason it is called impermanent is that the loss is only on paper as long as you stay in the pool; if the prices happen to return to the ratio at which you deposited, the loss disappears. It becomes a permanent, realized loss only at the moment you withdraw while the prices are still diverged. This is why impermanent loss is best understood not as money stolen from you but as an opportunity cost, the gap between what your pooled position is worth and what holding the tokens would have been worth.

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A worked example with real numbers

Numbers make the concept click, so consider a concrete example. Suppose you want to provide liquidity to an Ether and dollar-stablecoin pool, and at the time you deposit, Ether is worth $1,600. Following the standard 50-50 split, you deposit 1 Ether and $1,600 of the stablecoin, for a total deposit worth $3,200. The pool now holds your tokens alongside everyone else’s, governed by the constant product formula.

Now suppose the price of Ether rises to $2,000 on the wider market. Arbitrageurs will buy Ether from the pool because it is briefly cheaper there, until the pool’s price catches up to $2,000. This rebalancing means the pool now holds less Ether and more of the stablecoin than before, and your share reflects that new mix. When you withdraw, you receive, say, an amount of Ether and stablecoin that together is worth less than if you had just held your original 1 Ether and $1,600. 

Had you simply held, your 1 Ether would now be worth $2,000 and your stablecoin still $1,600, totaling $3,600. Your pooled position, after the rebalancing, might be worth around $3,500. That roughly $100 gap, before counting any fees, is the impermanent loss: the cost of having provided liquidity rather than held.

As a rule of thumb, when the price ratio between the two tokens doubles, the impermanent loss is around 5.7%, and the loss grows as the divergence grows. The example shows the unsettling truth that you can be up in dollar terms, since your position rose from $3,200 to $3,500, and still have lost relative to the simpler choice of holding.

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How to calculate impermanent loss

For those who want to move beyond intuition to a precise figure, impermanent loss can be calculated with a standard formula, and understanding it helps demystify the phenomenon. The common estimator depends only on the price ratio, written as r, which is the ratio of the token pair’s price at the time of withdrawal to its price at the time of deposit.

The formula is:

Impermanent Loss = (2 × √r ÷ (1 + r)) − 1

The result is a negative percentage representing how much worse the liquidity position performed compared with simply holding the assets.

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Using the doubling example:

  • r = 2
  • √2 ≈ 1.414
  • 2 × 1.414 ≈ 2.828
  • 2.828 ÷ 3 ≈ 0.943
  • 0.943 − 1 ≈ -0.057

This equals an impermanent loss of approximately 5.7% before fees.

The formula also confirms several useful observations:

  • If r = 1, meaning prices have not changed relative to one another, impermanent loss is zero.
  • As r moves further away from 1, the loss increases.
  • The formula depends on relative price movement, not whether prices rise or fall.

Many online calculators can perform this calculation automatically, but understanding the formula and remembering the 5.7% loss when prices double provides a useful mental shortcut when evaluating liquidity pools.

How fees and rewards offset the loss

Impermanent loss is only half the story, because liquidity providers are not giving their tokens away for nothing; they earn in return, and whether a position is profitable depends on the balance between what they earn and what they lose.

The primary source of earnings is trading fees. Every time a trader swaps against the pool, they pay a fee, and that fee is distributed to the liquidity providers in proportion to their share of the pool. In an active pool with heavy trading volume, those fees accumulate and can offset, or more than offset, the impermanent loss, leaving the provider with a net profit.

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This is the entire economic proposition of providing liquidity: you accept the risk of impermanent loss in exchange for a stream of fee income, and you come out ahead when the fees exceed the loss.

Many protocols sweeten the deal further with additional token rewards, distributing their own governance or incentive tokens to liquidity providers on top of the trading fees, a practice often called yield farming or liquidity mining. These rewards can substantially boost returns and are frequently used by new protocols to attract liquidity. Some protocols also offer explicit impermanent loss protection, a form of insurance that partially reimburses providers for losses, typically funded by token emissions or a reserve pool, though the terms and caps vary.

The crucial point, however, is that the offsets are not guaranteed to win. Research on real pools has found that for a large share of liquidity providers, in some major pools, more than half, the impermanent loss actually exceeded the trading fees they earned, meaning they would have been better off simply holding.

This is the sobering reality behind the passive-income pitch: the fees are real, but so is the loss, and in volatile pools, the loss can swallow the fees. The honest way to approach liquidity provision is to weigh the expected fee income against the likely impermanent loss for a given pair before committing, instead of assuming the fees will automatically make it worthwhile.

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How to limit your exposure

Because impermanent loss is driven by price divergence, the most effective ways to limit it all come down to choosing pairs whose prices move together, and understanding the trade-offs involved. The single most powerful technique is to provide liquidity to stablecoin pairs, such as a $1 stablecoin paired with another.

Because both tokens are pegged to the same dollar value, their prices barely diverge, which means the impermanent loss is close to 0. The trade-off is that such pools typically generate lower fee income, since they attract less volatile trading, but for a provider whose priority is avoiding impermanent loss, stablecoin pairs are the safest choice.

A related approach is to use pairs of assets that are closely correlated or pegged to each other, such as a token and its wrapped equivalent, where the two are designed to hold the same value and therefore experience essentially no divergence.

Beyond pair selection, some automated market makers allow providers to deposit in ratios other than the standard 50-50, or to concentrate their liquidity within a chosen price range, which can change the risk profile, though concentrated liquidity can also intensify impermanent loss if the price moves outside the chosen range.

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Researching the historical volatility and price correlation of a potential pair before committing, and running the numbers through an impermanent loss calculator under different price scenarios, lets a provider find a pair that fits their risk tolerance.

The overarching principle is straightforward: the more the two tokens in a pool can move apart in price, the greater the impermanent loss risk, so providers who want to minimize that risk favor pairs that stay close in value, while those willing to accept more risk in pursuit of higher fees go in with clear eyes about the trade-off. There is no way to eliminate impermanent loss entirely on volatile pairs, but there are clear ways to manage and reduce it.

Risks and common mistakes

Beyond the mechanics, a few risks and recurring mistakes are worth flagging directly, because they are where liquidity providers most often get hurt. The most common mistake is treating advertised yields as guaranteed profit.

A pool may advertise an attractive annual yield from fees and rewards, but that headline figure does not account for impermanent loss, which can quietly erode or exceed it, so the real return can be far lower or even negative. Anyone evaluating a pool should mentally subtract the likely impermanent loss from the advertised yield to get a truer picture.

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A second mistake is providing liquidity to highly volatile or uncorrelated pairs without appreciating the risk. The greater the price divergence between the two tokens, the larger the impermanent loss, so pairing a stablecoin with a volatile small-cap token, or two unrelated volatile tokens, exposes a provider to potentially severe losses if one moves sharply.

A third risk is withdrawing at the wrong moment, since impermanent loss only becomes permanent on withdrawal; pulling liquidity while prices are heavily diverged locks in the loss, whereas waiting, if the prices later converge, can reduce or erase it, though there is no guarantee they will.

Underlying all of this is the smart contract risk inherent in any decentralized finance protocol, since the pool is governed by code that could contain bugs or be exploited, a risk entirely separate from impermanent loss but always present.

The disciplined approach is to understand that providing liquidity is an active risk decision, not a passive income button: choose pairs deliberately, account for impermanent loss when judging returns, and recognize that the convenience of earning fees comes with a genuine cost that, in volatile pools, can outweigh the reward.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is impermanent loss in simple terms?

It is the opportunity cost you incur when you deposit tokens into a decentralized exchange’s liquidity pool and end up with less value than if you had simply held those tokens in your wallet. It happens because the pool automatically rebalances as the two tokens’ prices diverge, leaving you with more of the token that fell and less of the one that rose. It is called impermanent because the loss reverses if prices return to their starting ratio, and it only becomes a real, permanent loss when you withdraw your liquidity while the prices are still diverged.

Why does impermanent loss happen?

It happens because of how automated market makers work. These pools use a formula, commonly the constant product formula, that keeps the pool balanced by adjusting the ratio of the two tokens as their prices move. When one token’s price rises, arbitrageurs buy it from the pool until the pool’s price matches the market, which leaves the pool, and therefore your position, holding less of the rising token and more of the falling one. When you withdraw, that rebalanced mix is worth less than your original deposit would have been if simply held. The loss is driven by how far the two prices diverge.

How is impermanent loss calculated?

A common formula is:
Impermanent Loss = (2 × √r ÷ (1 + r)) − 1
where r is the ratio between the token pair’s price at withdrawal and its price at deposit.
For example, if the price ratio doubles (r = 2), the formula produces an impermanent loss of approximately 5.7% before fees.
When the ratio remains unchanged (r = 1), impermanent loss equals zero.
As the ratio moves farther away from one, the loss increases.
Many online calculators can perform this calculation automatically, but remembering the 5.7% benchmark is useful for quick estimates.

Can you avoid impermanent loss?

You cannot eliminate it entirely on volatile pairs, but you can limit it substantially. The most effective approach is to provide liquidity to stablecoin pairs, where both tokens hold the same dollar value and barely diverge, keeping impermanent loss near 0, though such pools typically earn lower fees. Using closely correlated or pegged pairs, such as a token and its wrapped version, has a similar effect. Researching a pair’s historical volatility and correlation, and modeling scenarios with a calculator before committing, helps you choose pairs that fit your risk tolerance and avoid the worst exposure.

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Does impermanent loss mean I always lose money?

No. Impermanent loss is offset by the trading fees and token rewards you earn as a liquidity provider, and a position is profitable when those earnings exceed the loss. In an active, high-volume pool, fees can more than cover the impermanent loss, leaving a net gain. However, research has found that for a large share of providers in some major pools, the impermanent loss exceeded the fees earned, meaning they would have done better simply holding. So whether you end up ahead depends on the balance between fees and loss, which is why choosing the pair and pool carefully matters so much.

What is the difference between impermanent loss and a regular loss?

A regular loss is a straightforward decline in the value of an asset you hold. Impermanent loss is an opportunity cost: it compares your pooled position against the alternative of simply having held the same tokens, and it can occur even when your position has risen in dollar terms, as long as it rose less than holding would have. It is called impermanent because it can reverse if prices return to their starting ratio, unlike a realized loss. It only becomes a permanent, realized loss at the moment you withdraw your liquidity while the token prices are still diverged from where you deposited.

This article is educational information, not financial advice. Decentralized finance involves significant risks, including impermanent loss, smart contract vulnerabilities, and the potential loss of funds. Figures and formulas are illustrative and reflect general information available as of June 26, 2026. Verify the specifics of any protocol from primary sources and consider your own circumstances before providing liquidity or making any decision.

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Telegram founder Pavel Durov internationally wanted, Russia’s FSB says

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Telegram founder Pavel Durov internationally wanted, Russia’s FSB says

Telegram founder Pavel Durov internationally wanted, Russia’s FSB says

Russia’s FSB says Telegram founder Pavel Durov faces a terrorism-related charge and an international arrest warrant, while a separate French case remains open.

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Bitcoin ETFs extend outflow streak as BTC fails to hold $65K

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Bitcoin ETFs extend outflow streak as BTC fails to hold $65K

Bitcoin ETFs extend outflow streak as BTC fails to hold $65K

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded four straight sessions of outflows totaling $526 million as Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure after failing to hold $65,000.

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The Most Unpredictable FOMC Meeting in Years Is Here: What Bitcoin Investors Should Know

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The United States Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision later today, but, unlike essentially every meeting in the past six years, markets remain divided over what comes next.

Bitcoin investors seemingly de-risked yesterday in what appeared to be a blatant sell-off ahead of the key event. The question now is what follows.

Why So Much Unpredictability Now

The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting on July 28 and will publish its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET today. Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference will follow approximately 30 minutes later, in which investors will seek clues for what the central bank’s policy will be for the remainder of 2026.

The current benchmark rate stands between 3.50% and 3.75%. Although most experts still believe it will be left unchanged, futures markets recently assigned a probability of up to 38% to a surprise 25-basis-point hike. According to the analyst at the Kobeissi Letter, these expectations are among the most divided in recent history.

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They explained that nearly every Fed meeting since the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 entered decision day with roughly 99% agreement about the outcome. The situation now is different for the first time in over six years, given the aforementioned odds on futures markets and prediction platforms.

The uncertainty partly stems from Warsh’s decision to reduce the central bank’s reliance on forward guidance. Minutes from the June meeting showed that policymakers discussed shortening the Fed’s statement and removing language indicating the likely direction of the next move. Warsh’s approach is expected to preserve flexibility, but it has also left traders without the clear policy signals they became accustomed to under Jerome Powell.

Change or No Change

The Kobeissi Letter analysts said they believe the Fed will leave rates unchanged. A recent Reuters survey of over 100 forecasters reached the same conclusion, with more than three-quarters predicting no policy shift until the end of the year. ING economists shared the same opinion.

One of the reasons for this is the softer-than-expected inflation data for June. The labor market has also shown signs of weakening, giving the Fed another reason not to tighten financial conditions further.

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There’s also the opposite side of the coin, though, as some experts believe the central bank might lose credibility if it waits too long. Inflation remains well above the 2% target, while renewed geopolitical tension, tariffs, and energy-market instability could push prices higher again.

Several Fed officials have reportedly become more open to the idea of raising rates if inflation fails to improve. Warsh has also avoided giving markets a clear roadmap, meaning that a hike cannot be easily dismissed simply because officials did not prepare investors for one in advance.

Crypto Impact

Crypto analytics platform Santiment Intelligence outlined a notable rise in social-media discussions about the interest-rate hikes ahead of today’s meeting. The data showed a similar spike in such fears before the previous meeting on June 16. However, as it typically happens, the social chatter was wrong as the Fed left rates unchanged.

“Crowd conviction can get loud right before it gets wrong, especially when traders are trying to price Fed uncertainty into Bitcoin,” said Santiment.

Let’s talk prices. BTC dipped by $3,000 yesterday in a de-risking development ahead of the meeting. It has recovered half of the losses, currently sitting above $64,000.

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If the Fed doesn’t change rates and Warsh doesn’t signal strongly for a September hike, BTC could rebound further as the uncertainty might have already been priced in. If there’s no rate change but the Chairman sounds hawkish, bitcoin might jump initially as there would be no hike now, but it’s likely to retreat toward $60,000 in the next few weeks.

A surprise 25-basis-point increase, though, will be the most bearish immediate outcome for the cryptocurrency. The decision will likely strengthen the dollar, push Treasury yields higher, and cause investors to further reduce exposure to speculative assets.

The post The Most Unpredictable FOMC Meeting in Years Is Here: What Bitcoin Investors Should Know appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Jump Capital doubles down on crypto with new $350M fund

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Jump Capital doubles down on crypto with new $350M fund

Jump Capital has closed a $350 million venture fund with a stronger focus on crypto investments.

Summary

  • Jump Capital has closed a $350 million venture fund with a stronger focus on early stage crypto investments.
  • The firm said the new fund will back blockchain infrastructure, DeFi, Web3, fintech, and enterprise software startups.
  • Jump Capital has expanded its crypto portfolio through investments in Securitize, Shelby, and KGeN over the past year.
  • The venture firm has completed more than 100 investments and nearly 30 exits since its launch.

According to a July 29 announcement, Jump Capital has closed its seventh venture fund with $350 million in total capital commitments, describing it as the firm’s largest fund to date and outlining plans to increase investments across the crypto ecosystem while continuing to back early-stage technology startups.

The firm’s official announcement said the new vehicle will continue investing in fintech, IT and data infrastructure, future of commerce and media, and B2B SaaS, while allocating more resources to blockchain and digital asset companies. 

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The fund follows nearly a decade of venture investing that has resulted in more than 100 portfolio companies and close to 30 exits.

Jump Capital has expanded its crypto allocation

Founded in 2012 alongside Jump Trading, Jump Capital said it originally focused on software and technology companies outside traditional coastal venture markets while supplying Series A and Series B funding to underserved founders across the United States.

The firm said market conditions have changed considerably since then. Access to Series A and Series B capital has become more limited, while investor attention toward startups in the Midwest increased during the pandemic. 

At the same time, blockchain emerged as what Jump Capital described as a technology capable of changing financial markets and introducing new models of ownership and value transfer.

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According to the announcement, the venture firm began investing in crypto roughly seven years ago before building a dedicated investment team led by partners Saurabh Sharma and Peter Johnson. It said experience across distributed systems, computing infrastructure, fintech, and capital markets encouraged it to commit more resources to the sector through its latest fund.

The announcement added that Jump Capital and its affiliate Jump Trading now invest globally across the crypto market, citing increasing institutional participation, continued retail adoption, and rapid product development as factors supporting that strategy.

Crypto investments already span infrastructure and tokenization

According to Jump Capital, its crypto portfolio already includes investments across exchanges that support fiat on-ramps, lending and credit platforms, compliance software, asset management platforms, decentralized finance, gaming, Web3 infrastructure, and blockchain networks.

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In May 2025, Jump Crypto, the digital asset division of Jump Trading, acquired a significant equity stake in Securitize for an undisclosed amount. At the time, Securitize said the partnership would expand institutional access to tokenized real-world assets, including U.S. Treasurys, private credit, and private equity, while improving collateral management solutions. Securitize Chief Operating Officer Michael Sonneshein said the investment demonstrated growing institutional conviction in tokenization and its role in capital markets.

The company made another infrastructure-focused move in June 2025, when Aptos Labs and Jump Crypto introduced Shelby, a decentralized hot storage network designed to provide cloud-grade infrastructure for Web3 applications. Aptos Labs said Shelby would deliver decentralized, monetizable storage with sub-second data access across multiple blockchains, while Jump Crypto said the protocol addresses blockchains’ inability to efficiently serve large datasets at scale.

Earlier collaborators announced for Shelby included Metaplex, Pipe Network, Story, Myco, DoubleZero, and Flashback Labs, with Aptos serving as the network’s initial settlement layer.

Portfolio activity has continued across emerging Web3 projects

Jump Crypto has also continued backing consumer-facing blockchain applications.

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In September 2025, Web3 distribution protocol KGeN announced a $13.5 million strategic funding round backed by Jump Crypto, Accel, and Prosus Ventures, increasing the company’s total funding to $43.5 million.

KGeN said the proceeds would support expansion of its POGE identity and reputation framework, which helps Web3 applications manage user acquisition, commerce, and loyalty programs on-chain. At the time, the company reported operations across more than 60 countries, serving 38.9 million verified users, generating $48.3 million in annualized revenue, and recording roughly 780,000 daily active users.

Following that investment, Jump Crypto Chief Investment Officer Saurabh Sharma said KGeN’s distribution model introduced more accountability into digital user acquisition, while Accel and Prosus Ventures credited the platform’s ability to scale measurable engagement.

New fund builds on nearly a decade of venture investing

Alongside its crypto activity, Jump Capital said its venture business has completed more than 100 investments and nearly 30 exits since launch.

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The firm pointed to exits involving Personal Capital, acquired by Empower, Flashpoint, acquired by Audax, and Tubi, acquired by Fox, while also highlighting companies including SPIRE, Fast Radius, M1 Finance, Degreed, TradingView, LogicGate, and LinkSquares among its portfolio.

According to Jump Capital, its investment process continues to rely on sector-specific research and discussions with industry participants before identifying founders whose businesses align with the firm’s investment themes.

With Fund VII now closed, the venture firm said it plans to continue supporting early-stage technology companies while dedicating additional capital and personnel to blockchain infrastructure, decentralized finance, crypto networks, gaming, and other parts of the digital asset ecosystem.

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USD/JPY and USD/CAD Test Resistance Ahead of Fresh Fed Signals

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USD/JPY and USD/CAD Test Resistance Ahead of Fresh Fed Signals

The US dollar continues to hold the upper hand against most major currencies ahead of the outcome of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. While the base-case scenario remains for interest rates to stay unchanged, markets are also pricing in the possibility of a rate hike. The Fed’s decision, together with its comments on inflation, economic conditions and the future path of monetary policy, could determine the direction of the US dollar over the coming weeks.

Another factor supporting the dollar is the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Despite the temporary suspension of US strikes on Iran and renewed diplomatic efforts, the risk of further military escalation remains, prompting investors to remain cautious ahead of this week’s key events. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, USD/JPY’s approach towards multi-year highs has increased expectations of fresh warnings from Japanese authorities and raised the risk of currency intervention. For USD/CAD, oil prices remain another important driver: weaker crude prices continue to limit support for the Canadian dollar and help preserve the pair’s bullish potential.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY tested another multi-year high near 164.00 last week. Following the strong rally, the pair has entered a modest pullback. However, if the Federal Reserve delivers a more hawkish outcome or maintains its hawkish tone, the pair could extend its advance towards 165.00–165.50. A decisive move below 163.30 could trigger a deeper correction towards the 162.00–162.60 support area.

Key events for USD/JPY:

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  • Today at 21:00 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
  • Today at 21:30 (GMT+3): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference;
  • Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD’s recovery following the formation of a bullish engulfing pattern has stalled near resistance at 1.4130. The pair is currently consolidating within the 1.4060–1.4130 range. A decisive break above the upper boundary of this range could pave the way for further gains towards 1.4160–1.4200. Conversely, a move below 1.4060 could lead to a retest of the recent low near 1.4000.

Key events for USD/CAD:

  • Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
  • Today at 20:30 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations;
  • Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP data.

Overall, the near-term direction of both USD/JPY and USD/CAD will depend primarily on the Federal Reserve’s decision and its guidance on the future path of interest rates. A more hawkish stance could support a breakout above nearby resistance levels and reinforce the US dollar’s strength. Conversely, a more dovish message could trigger a correction in the greenback, particularly against the Japanese yen, where the proximity of multi-year highs increases the likelihood of renewed warnings from Japanese officials. For USD/CAD, oil price movements and the Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations will remain important additional drivers.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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XRP (XRP) Price Prediction 2026, 2027-2030

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Circle launches cirBTC on Ethereum with 1:1 Bitcoin backing

XRP trades near $1.06 in late July 2026, roughly 71 percent below the $3.65 cycle top set on July 17, 2025. This piece walks through the escrow-versus-ETF equation, the bull case ($4.50–$7.00 by 2030), the base case ($1.80–$3.20), and the bear case ($0.60–$1.40).

Read the full XRP price prediction analysis →

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Cross-Border Payments Top Stablecoin Use Case in UK Policy Sprint

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Cross-Border Payments Top Stablecoin Use Case in UK Policy Sprint

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.

All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

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HTX’s First TradFi “Trade to Earn” Campaign Unleashes New Trading Momentum: Rewards Exceed $23,000, Fee Savings Reach 1.8 Billion $HTX

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HTX’s First TradFi “Trade to Earn” Campaign Unleashes New Trading Momentum: Rewards Exceed $23,000, Fee Savings Reach 1.8 Billion $HTX

Recently, HTX’s first-ever TradFi “Trade to Earn” campaign concluded successfully. The campaign leveraged innovative gameplay – “24/7 mining” and “up to 110% fee rebates” – to ignite significant trading enthusiasm for traditional finance assets within the crypto market.

HTX’s official data reveals impressive results: the campaign generated a total trading volume of 63.37 million USDT, crowned a top winner claiming 5,206 USDT in rewards, and collectively saved users 22,238 USDT in trading fees. These achievements underscore the event’s effectiveness in enhancing the user trading experience and reducing trading costs.

Amid current market volatility, HTX’s TradFi perpetual futures contracts offer users an excellent hedging and cross-market investment tool. Through the “mining via trading” model, users can capture macro opportunities such as surging U.S. equities and gold volatility using familiar USDT capital without trading fee friction.

Enjoy Negative Trading Fee Rates 24/7

Official data reveals that the inaugural “Trade to Earn” campaign generated a robust trading volume of 63.37 million USDT. Over the campaign period, the platform distributed 23,477 USDT in rewards while saving traders 22,238 USDT in fees (an equivalent of roughly 1.8 billion $HTX). These impressive metrics highlight HTX’s trading innovations with negative fee rates and 24/7 continuous rewards.

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During the campaign, users trading designated TradFi perpetual futures contracts earned $HTX rewards of up to 110% of their actual trading fees incurred. This means the platform not only covers all trading costs but also provides additional rewards, transforming trading costs from an expense into profit and truly achieving “the more you trade, the more you earn.” Additionally, the platform offered a daily prize pool of 6,000 USDT, distributed hourly to ensure round-the-clock incentives.

Notably, the campaign-designated trading assets span a diverse range of core TradFi instruments: from safe-haven and inflation-hedging tools like gold (XAU) and crude oil (USOIL), to major indices like the Nasdaq (QQQ) and tech giants including NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT). This diverse selection of assets offers users versatile macro allocation, hedging, and cross-market trading opportunities, further expanding practical use cases at the intersection of Web3 and traditional finance.

Fees for $HTX Buyback and Burn, Constructing a Positive Cycle of Trading and Ecosystem Value

Beyond trading rewards, another standout feature of this campaign is its deep integration of user trading activity with $HTX ecosystem value.

During the campaign, all trading fees generated from designated TradFi contracts were allocated to buy back $HTX tokens, with buybacks executed and burned according to the platform’s quarterly burning schedule. This mechanism links platform trading growth with $HTX value creation, continuously incentivizing user participation while reinforcing the token’s deflationary characteristics. This fosters a positive cycle: “trading growth – token buyback and burn – value accumulation.”

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With the first campaign successfully concluded, HTX’s second-phase TradFi “Trade to Earn” is now in preparation. The campaign will continue to adopt negative-fee trading and 24/7 rewards, while further expanding access to popular TradFi asset trading scenarios. This will enable users to capture global market opportunities while continuously enjoying the innovative experience of “trading as earnings.”

Looking forward, HTX will leverage more diverse products, increasingly competitive incentives, and an enhanced ecosystem to drive deeper integration between crypto and TradFi, delivering a more professional and efficient digital asset trading platform for global users.

About HTX

Founded in 2013, HTX has evolved from a virtual asset exchange into a comprehensive ecosystem of blockchain businesses that span digital asset trading, financial derivatives, research, investments, incubation, and other businesses.

As a world-leading gateway to Web3, HTX harbors global capabilities that enable it to provide users with safe and reliable services. Adhering to the growth strategy of “Global Expansion, Thriving Ecosystem, Wealth Effect, Security & Compliance,” HTX is dedicated to providing quality services and values to virtual asset enthusiasts worldwide.

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To learn more about HTX, please visit https://www.htx.com/ or HTX Square , and follow HTX on X, Telegram, and Discord.

The post HTX’s First TradFi “Trade to Earn” Campaign Unleashes New Trading Momentum: Rewards Exceed $23,000, Fee Savings Reach 1.8 Billion $HTX appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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The post Russia Targets Telegram Founder Pavel Durov With Terrorism Charges appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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