Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has repeatedly tested patient investors, and a long-hold thesis appears increasingly robust when examined through multi-year price histories. A Bitwise Europe study looking at BTC’s price data from mid-2010 through early 2026 finds that the odds of ending a multi-year position in the red shrink dramatically as the holding window extends. In particular, three-year holders show a loss probability of just 0.70%, with even smaller risk over longer horizons. The findings map onto a broader narrative: while near-term volatility and macro headwinds persist, the longest-dated exposure has historically delivered favorable outcomes for those who ride out cycles. The debate around price targets for 2026–2027 remains lively among analysts and researchers, with forecasts ranging widely.

Key takeaways

• A three-year BTC holding has a 0.70% chance of ending in loss; five-year horizons drop to 0.2%, and ten-year horizons sit at 0% based on the Bitwise Europe dataset covering July 2010–Feb. 11, 2026.
• Shorter horizons carry higher risk: intraday BTC positions were 47.1% underwater, with the probability staying elevated at 44.7% over one week, 43.2% over one month, and 24.3% over a one-year window.
• As of a recent Saturday, BTC traded near $65,000 after a roughly 50% decline from the October 2025 peak; the three-to-five year realized price sits around $34,780, meaning long-hold investors in that window remain roughly 90% in profit.
• Cost-basis insights show the depth of drawdowns varied by holding period: those in the 6–12 month band carried a cost basis near $101,250, while the 1–2 year cohort hovered around $78,150, illustrating how longer horizons dampen drawdowns during corrections.
• Forecasts for 2026–2027 remain divergent. Bernstein has kept a bullish target of $150,000 for 2026, while Standard Chartered warns of potential downside toward $50,000 amid weak ETF flows before a recovery toward $100,000 by year-end. Timothy Peterson’s framework points to around $122,000 by early 2027, with odds skewing toward a level above that mark. Some analysts even flag a scenario where a drop toward $30,000 could intensify, should negative forces persist.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Market context: The analysis arrives as the macro backdrop and spot-Bitcoin ETF dynamics shape liquidity and sentiment. While near-term moves remain volatile, the data emphasize a structural resilience for long-duration exposure, complicating calls that rely solely on short- or medium-term price actions.

Why it matters

The central takeaway for investors weighing risk and time horizons is that holding Bitcoin for longer stretches has historically reduced downside risk. The Bitwise Europe analysis synthesizes decades of price history to illustrate a simple trade-off: time in the market tends to smooth out volatility and limit losses, even as drawdowns occur along the way. For market participants who favor patient exposure over quick wins, the results reinforce the strategic value of a multi-year horizon when assessing BTC’s risk profile.

But the narrative is nuanced. While long-hold cohorts show impressive downside resistance, shorter-term traders faced meaningful drawdowns during correction cycles. The intraday and weekly metrics underscore that market timing remains a challenging game. Investors who entered positions within the last year or two found themselves under considerable pressure during bear-market rallies and capitulation phases. The realized-price framework adds another layer: even as Bitcoin’s price dips, the difference between current levels and multi-year realized prices can offer a proxy for whether a given entry remains profitable on a longer horizon.

What to watch next

• Track ETF flows and price action around key levels: Bernstein notes modest net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs (around 7%), a dynamic that could influence near-term price action.
• Watch for potential downside catalysts: some scenarios point to BTC testing the $30,000 region if macro and ETF dynamics worsen further, which would compress the cushion for long-term holders.
• Observe longer-horizon projections evolving: Peterson’s model suggests roughly $122,000 by early 2027, while other analysts maintain targets near six figures or higher depending on liquidity conditions and risk sentiment.
• Monitor realized-price indicators as a gauge of profitability across aging cohorts: data from Glassnode’s realized-price-by-age charts help contextualize whether current prices justify holding or adding to positions over time.

Sources & verification

• Bitwise Europe research lead Andre Dragosch’s data referencing BTC price history from July 17, 2010, to February 11, 2026, showing loss probabilities by holding period. Link: X post.
• Glassnode data on BTC realized price by age, used to illustrate realized-profit dynamics across holding windows: Realized price by age.
• Bernstein’s price target for Bitcoin at $150,000 in 2026: Bernstein analysis.
• Standard Chartered commentary on ETF flows and BTC price implications, including a potential move toward $50,000 and a recovery toward $100,000 by end-2026: Standard Chartered note.
• Timothy Peterson’s historical price-metric projection of around $122,000 by early 2027: Peterson model.
• Analyses discussing a potential price bottom around $30,000: BTC to $30k discussion.

Market reaction and key details

Bitcoin’s long-hold resilience narrative sits at the intersection of empirical price histories and forward-looking forecasts. The Bitwise Europe findings underscore a fundamental principle of risk management in crypto: time can be a mitigating factor against pronounced drawdowns, particularly for assets with long and volatile price trajectories like BTC. As of the latest data points, the price remains well above the 3–5 year realized-price band, suggesting investors who carried positions across that horizon stayed financially advantaged despite recent declines. Yet, with near-term price action vulnerable to ETF flow shifts and macro surprises, the timing of new entries or additions warrants careful consideration.

What this means for investors and the market

For builders and institutions, the message is clear: a multi-year exposure approach continues to be a meaningful risk management lever, provided entrants understand that near-term volatility can erase short-term gains. For traders and retail participants, the findings reinforce the importance of horizon management—knowing when to trim, when to accumulate, and how to interpret realized-price signals that contextualize profitability over time. As the debate over BTC’s fair value stretches into 2027, the balance between outflows from ETF products, macro momentum, and the technical price regime will increasingly shape the space. The data do not guarantee outcomes, but they do illuminate how holding patterns have historically influenced risk and reward in one of crypto’s most scrutinized markets.

What to watch next

• ETF flow dynamics and their impact on spot BTC liquidity (watch for updates on net inflows/outflows and price correlation).
• Key downside risk scenarios, including any approach toward the $30,000 level and the subsequent implications for longer-term holders.
• Updated price targets for 2026–2027 from major analysts, including revisions to mid- or high-five-figure forecasts.
• New data from realized-price analyses that track aging cohorts, offering updated insight into profitability by holding window.

Rewritten article: Understanding the enduring appeal of patience in BTC

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has long been framed as a volatile asset class that tests the nerves of investors seeking quick profits. Yet, a synthesis of long-run price history and contemporary market dynamics suggests that the most durable gains may accrue to those who commit to time rather than timing. The Bitwise Europe analysis, which combs through BTC’s price journey from 2010 to early 2026, indicates a striking pattern: the longer you ride the cycle, the less likely you are to sit on losses. Specifically, a three-year holding period yields a loss probability of just 0.70%, while five-year and ten-year windows reduce the risk even further to 0.2% and 0%, respectively.

To put those figures into perspective, the risk calculus for traders who enter BTC positions with shorter horizons is markedly more precarious. Intraday entries show nearly half the time ending underwater, with 47.1% of positions in negative territory. The risk persists, albeit at different magnitudes, over one week (44.7%), one month (43.2%), and even a year (24.3%). These numbers illuminate a pattern: the shorter the time frame, the greater the exposure to abrupt price moves and regime shifts. It helps explain why many seasoned crypto investors emphasize patience and disciplined risk management as essential components of a successful strategy in this space.

The price action context is equally important. As of a recent Saturday, BTC traded around $65,000, roughly half its October 2025 high. Yet the longer-term perspective remains constructive when contrasted with realized-prices: the 3–5 year realized price sits near $34,780, implying that participants who bought around that window and held through the recent drawdown were still sitting on about a 90% profit. This contrast between current market price and multi-year realization offers a tangible signal for investors evaluating whether to add to positions or hold steady through volatility. The historical frame invites readers to consider not just where Bitcoin is today, but where it has been over the last decade and how those cycles tested the resilience of long-term holders.

Forecasts for the 2026–2027 horizon remain divergent, reflecting the many moving parts that drive crypto markets. Bernstein has maintained a bold target of $150,000 for Bitcoin in 2026, arguing that relatively modest outflows from spot-Bitcoin ETFs could sustain a price trajectory higher, even as the asset retrenched by roughly 50% from its prior peak. The analysts characterized the current price action as a “crisis of confidence,” suggesting that sentiment rather than fundamentals is a primary swing factor in the near term. On the other side of the ledger, Standard Chartered has warned of a possible “final capitulation” phase that could pull BTC toward $50,000, driven by weak ETF flows and a softer macro backdrop, before restoring momentum toward the $100,000 mark by year-end 2026. Timothy Peterson’s framework, which leverages a historical average-return approach, points to around $122,000 by early 2027, with a substantial likelihood of trading above that level.

Beyond these headlines, a broader data story centers on the aging of holders and the corresponding realized-price dynamics. Glassnode’s charts of realized price by age underscore a recurring pattern: the cost basis and drawdown profiles depend heavily on how long investors have held their BTC. The 6–12 month cohort, for instance, shows a cost basis near $101,250, translating to about a 35% unrealized loss at a given snapshot, while the 1–2 year cohort sits closer to $78,150, implying roughly a 15% unrealized loss. The practical takeaway is that longer holding horizons tend to dampen the severity of corrections, a trend that aligns with the three-year risk reductions highlighted in the Bitwise analysis. For readers tracking the macro picture, the conversation about ETF flows, risk sentiment, and regulatory signals remains essential, as these factors are likely to influence whether the market shakes off or sustains the next leg higher.

Looking ahead, the path for Bitcoin remains as much about risk management as about price discovery. The consensus between long-hold data and bearish risk scenarios suggests a bifurcated market: patient investors could ride out volatility and exit with meaningful gains, while shorter-term traders might face amplified drawdowns if macro or policy dynamics tilt unfavorably. As with prior cycles, the market’s future hinges on how liquidity, sentiment, and structural demand—whether via ETFs or institutional participation—interact with the entrenched volatility that has defined BTC since its inception. In that context, the discipline of holding—paired with vigilant risk assessment—appears to be the most durable approach for navigating Bitcoin’s evolving landscape.

Investors shift focus as Bitcoin and Ethereum align with emerging high-utility crypto protocols.

While the primary focus remains on the price action of major cryptocurrencies, a deeper shift is happening in the background. Investors are increasingly looking at how the “majors” like Bitcoin and Ethereum interact with high-performance utility protocols. This balance between established store-of-value assets and new, functional financial tools is defining the current market cycle.

Today’s alert covers the essential movements across the top three assets by market interest and the rise of next-generation lending platforms. From Bitcoin’s defense of key support levels to Dogecoin’s community-driven momentum, the ecosystem is diverse. 

The crypto market today

The global cryptocurrency market cap is currently holding steady near $2.65 trillion. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic as traders digest recent economic data and look toward the upcoming month. 

While volatility remains a factor, the “fear and greed” index is showing a healthy level of accumulation. This suggests that the current price levels are being viewed as a consolidation phase rather than a peak, allowing the market to build a stronger foundation for the next leg up.

Liquidity is also beginning to shift. While Bitcoin dominance remains high, there is a visible move toward Ethereum-based decentralized finance (DeFi) tools. This rotation is typical when the market seeks “productive capital” — assets that can be lent or staked to earn a return rather than just sitting idle in a wallet.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $67,600, maintaining its position as the market leader with a market cap of $1.32 trillion. After briefly touching the $70,000 psychological barrier earlier in the week, the asset is seeing a natural cooling-off period. Analysts are keeping a close watch on the $67,000 support zone. As long as BTC stays above this level, the mid-term trend remains firmly bullish.

The current price action is largely influenced by two factors: ETF inflows and macroeconomic data. While the “risk-off” mood ahead of the latest inflation reports caused a small dip, the demand from institutional spot ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT remains a strong stabilizer. If Bitcoin can flip the $69,500 resistance into support, the path to a new all-time high appears clear. For now, the focus is on “sideways” movement as the market gathers strength.

Ethereum

Ethereum has shown remarkable resilience, successfully reclaiming and defending the $2,100 mark. Currently trading near $2,150, ETH is benefiting from the Ethereum Foundation’s renewed focus on the “Defipunk” initiative, which emphasizes privacy and security. With a market cap of over $250 billion, Ethereum continues to be the primary engine for the DeFi sector, attracting investors who want to use their assets for lending and yield.

The next major hurdle for Ethereum is the $2,300 resistance zone. A breakout here would signal a shift in the ETH/BTC ratio, potentially sparking a broader altcoin rally. The network’s move toward native “Shielded ETH” transfers and better L2 scaling has made it more attractive for institutional use. As more capital flows into Ethereum-based utility protocols, the demand for the underlying ETH token as gas and collateral continues to grow.

Dogecoin

Dogecoin remains the king of the memecoin sector, currently trading around $0.091. While it lacks the institutional backing of BTC or the smart-contract utility of ETH, its community strength is undeniable. DOGE has seen a 7% increase over the past week, driven by social media sentiment and a general “risk-on” mood among retail traders. Its market cap sits near $20 billion, keeping it firmly in the top 10 digital assets globally.

Technically, Dogecoin is struggling to break through a heavy resistance level at $0.15. It has tested this zone multiple times without a clean breakout. Support is currently found at $0.13, which has held up well during recent market dips. 

While DOGE is often volatile, it serves as a sentiment gauge for the rest of the market. When Dogecoin rallies, it often signals that retail investors are feeling confident and ready to explore higher-risk altcoins.

Mutuum Finance

As the “majors” provide market stability, new utility protocols are gaining traction. Mutuum Finance (MUTM) is an Ethereum-based lending and borrowing platform designed for the modern DeFi era. The project has raised over $20.6 million and has built a community of more than 19,000 investors, with the MUTM token currently priced at $0.04.

What sets Mutuum Finance apart is its commitment to transparency and security. The project is currently in Phase 3 of its roadmap and has already undergone rigorous audits by Halborn and CertiK. This “security-first” approach is essential in 2026, where investors are wary of unverified code. 

Lending and borrowing

The lending side of Mutuum Finance is built to be simple and rewarding. When users provide assets like ETH, WBTC, or USDT to the protocol, they receive mtTokens as a digital receipt. These are not static tokens; they are interest-bearing assets. As borrowers pay interest into the pool, the value of the mtTokens increases, allowing lenders to earn a passive yield.

The APY (Annual Percentage Yield) is variable, meaning it adjusts based on the demand for loans. For example, if many users want to borrow USDT, the APY for USDT lenders will rise. This ensures that the system stays balanced and that lenders are fairly compensated for providing liquidity. This “set-and-forget” model is ideal for long-term holders who want to grow their portfolios without active trading.

Borrowing on Mutuum Finance allows users to unlock the value of their crypto without selling it. This is done through an over-collateralized model. A user provides collateral — for example, $20,000 in ETH — and can borrow up to a certain Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio. At a 75% LTV, that user could access $15,000 in liquidity for real-world expenses or other investments.

In addition to lending yield, users who stake their mtTokens are eligible to receive dividends in MUTM tokens. According to the protocol model, a portion of the fees generated by platform activity is used to purchase MUTM tokens at market price and distribute them to stakers. By connecting platform fees with open-market token purchases, the mechanism may also help support the token’s market demand over time.

The V1 protocol

The technical progress of Mutuum Finance is currently visible through its V1 protocol on the Sepolia testnet. This working beta allows the community to test every feature of the platform in a risk-free environment. With a tracked Total Market Size of $162.21m, the protocol is demonstrating its ability to handle large-scale financial activity. Users can practice depositing, borrowing, and monitoring their Health Factors, ensuring they are ready for the official mainnet launch.

The crypto market today is a mix of established strength and emerging innovation. Bitcoin and Ethereum are providing the necessary foundation of value and security, while Dogecoin keeps the retail community engaged. However, a chunk of growth is happening in utility protocols.

As we look toward March 2026, the focus will remain on how these different sectors interact. For the 19,000 investors in MUTM and the millions holding BTC and ETH, the goal is the same: a secure, decentralized financial system that offers both stability and growth. 

As tensions flare once again between Iran, Israel, and the U.S., social media, especially on crypto social media X (or Crypto Twitter), fears that Tehran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil chokepoint. Such a move, many worry, could send oil prices and global inflation soaring and roil financial markets, including bitcoin.

However, those concerns may be exaggerated, according to some observers.

Early Saturday, Israel and the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iran, aiming to dismantle the nation’s nuclear facilities and missile capabilities after failed negotiations. Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at Israel and the U.S. bases in the region, escalating fears of a full-blown military conflict.

This sparked jitters in the crypto market, the only venue open for investors to express fear and risk, while traditional markets stay closed over the weekend.

Bitcoin BTC$64,751.25, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, dropped to $63,000 from around $65,600 before rebounding to $65,000. Oil-linked futures on Hyperliquid surged more than 5%.

Hormuz fears

The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint (21 miles wide at its narrowest point) between Iran to the north and Oman to the south, and facilitated about 20 million barrels of oil shipments each day in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Naturally, amid simmering tensions, crypto accounts on X are worried that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, choking off oil supplies.

“If a direct conflict between the United States and Iran has begun, this isn’t just geopolitics. It’s a global economic event. If the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, oil could spike toward $120–$150,” an X handle called @Crypto_Diet said.

This could lead to an inflation shock, market sell-offs, a dollar surge, and depreciation in emerging-market currencies, the post added.

Several more accounts have posted similar views, with some savvy geopolitical experts sharing these concerns.

“Oil prices had already climbed to six-month highs ahead of the strikes. Iran is a founding OPEC member and the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil passes, is now directly implicated,” Geopolitical Strategist Velina Tchakarova said.

On top of that, some news outlets are already reporting that several oil majors, including trading houses, have suspended oil and fuel shipments through the strait.

Outright closure unlikely

Some observers, however, argued that an outright closure of the strait is not in Iran’s best interests and may be geographically impossible.

According to Daniel Lacalle, a PhD economist, fund manager, and chief economist at Tressis, Iran currently produces 3.3 million barrels per day of oil, but exports just half of that, which almost entirely goes to its ally China.

“It would shoot itself in the foot,” Lacalle said, downplaying fears of an eventual Iranian shutdown of the strait.

He added that OPEC members could quickly offset any potential disruption to oil supplies from Iran, while stressing that the United States, by itself, is the world’s largest oil producer.

In other words, any spike in oil prices could be measured and temporary.

The other aspect to consider is Geography. While the strait is split roughly in the middle between Iran and Oman, the shipping lanes are predominantly in Omani waters. It’s because water on the Iranian side is said to be shallower, while on the Omani side, it is deeper and better suited for the movement of large oil tankers.

So, technically, ships could pass through Oman’s yard, which means Iran’s closure of its territory may not have a big impact on supplies.

“Most waterways are in Oman, not Iran,” Energy Market Expert Dr. Anas Alhajji said on X.

“Hormuz strait has never been blocked despite all wars – It cannot be blocked. Too wide. Well protected,” he added.

All things considered, the odds of Iran shutting the strait and choking off oil supplies are low. That said, an all-out war can still trigger widespread risk aversion, potentially driving bitcoin below the widely watched $60,000 support level.

Meanwhile, bitcoin’s price chart also signals a potential for deepening of the bear market ahead amid the Middle East crisis.

US and Israeli military strikes in Iran triggered a $6.5 million loss for one cryptocurrency prediction market trader.

Meanwhile, the attacks generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit for others.

Iran Bombing Fuels Six Figure gains and $6 Million Loss on Polymarket

The financial fallout on the decentralized platform Polymarket underscores the rapid capital shifts tied to geopolitical betting.

Blockchain analysis reveals that a single trader, operating under the pseudonym anoin123, suffered a total wipeout of more than $6.4 million.

The trader had systematically placed massive wagers, fading the likelihood that President Donald Trump would authorize direct military intervention against the Islamic Republic.

When munitions hit Tehran and other Iranian cities, those contracts became worthless.

Conversely, the military escalation generated profits for a handful of persistent Polymarket users. A trader known as Vivaldi007, who began buying shares on February 8, anticipating a joint attack, realized a total profit of $385,000.

Notably, the trader had absorbed losses on earlier contracts as previous target dates passed without incident before capitalizing on Saturday’s strikes.

Meanwhile, the most closely scrutinized transaction involves a cryptocurrency wallet dubbed “Roeyha2026.”

According to the blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, the wallet was funded 11 hours before the bombing campaign commenced. The anonymous user wagered $50,000 that a US strike on Iran would occur before March 1.

The attacks had immediate impact on crypto prices, with many assets tumbling before staging modest recoveries.

As it happened with a few other global situations in the past several months, a group of suspected insiders seemingly knew what was going to transpire and profited substantially.

Recall that Israel and the US carried out organized strikes against Iran on Saturday, and Bubblemaps outlined that a group of wallets made a total of $1.2 million betting on these developments hours before they happened.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Six suspected insiders made $1.2M betting on a US strike on Iran

Most of these wallets:

• were funded in the last 24h
• specifically bet for February 28
• bought “yes” hours before the strike pic.twitter.com/n3G6OIEOXt

— Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) February 28, 2026

Given the precision in their actions – funding the wallets in the past 24 hours before the events unfolded, choosing specifically February 28, and betting on “yes” shortly ahead of the strikes, the likely conclusion is that they had inside knowledge of what took place in the Middle East on Saturday morning.

Recall that at first reports emerged that Israel had initiated strikes against Iran, and then ordered a state of emergency within its borders, expecting retaliation. Then, US President Donald Trump confirmed that his country was also involved.

The POTUS doubled down in the following hours, categorizing the attacks as a “major combat operation.” It’s worth noting that Iran indeed retaliated by counter-attacking several US allies, such as Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain.

The initial attacks from the morning harmed the cryptocurrency markets immediately. Bitcoin dumped from $66,000 to $63,000 in minutes, while most altcoins followed suit with 2-4% declines in less than an hour.

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Nevertheless, BTC has recovered some ground since then and currently trades close to $65,000. ETH is down to $1,900, while BNB and XRP continue their fight for fourth place in terms of market cap.

Mark Karpelès thought he had a reasonable ask.

The former CEO of defunct exchange MtGox, operating under his GitHub handle MagicalTux, submitted a pull request to Bitcoin Core over the weekend proposing a hard fork (a fundamental change in code that splits the blockchain) that would let 79,956 BTC be redirected from the address they’ve been sitting in since 2011.

At current prices, that’s roughly $5 billion in bitcoin that hasn’t moved in 15 years.

The proposal was narrow, with just under 60 lines of code. A single consensus rule change that would substitute one public key hash for another when validating transactions from the theft address, allowing the MtGox trustee to spend the coins and route them into Japan’s existing court-supervised rehabilitation process.

Read more: Mt Gox: The History of a Failed Bitcoin Exchange

The activation height was set to infinity, meaning nothing would happen unless the community explicitly agreed to turn it on.

It lasted about 17 hours.

The forum was auto-closed even before a discussion took place, with bitcoiners suggesting that Karpelès submitted a pull request directly when he should’ve first discussed the changes on the Bitcoin development list. Some of them said that Karpelès should first propose this as an official Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP).

The people it was supposed to help rejected it, too. Several MtGox creditors said publicly on X that they didn’t want Bitcoin’s rules rewritten on their behalf. The network’s guarantee that private keys equal ownership matters more to them than getting their coins back.

Code is the law

Karpelès had anticipated the objections and listed them himself in the proposal.

The theft is unambiguous, and the coins haven’t moved in 15 years. A legal framework to distribute them already exists. The scope targets one address. Every argument for exceptionalism was there.

Once Bitcoin redirects coins for any reason, the question stops being whether it can and starts being when it will do it again.

Bitfinex victims, DeFi hack victims, and anyone who lost coins to a documented theft could cite this as precedent and seek the same remedy for their incidents. The line between one justified exception and a general mechanism is exactly the kind of subjective boundary Bitcoin was built to avoid.

This is not to say a change in code didn’t happen before.

Previous emergency interventions, such as the 2010 value overflow bug or the 2013 chain split, involved technical failures that threatened the network itself. This was different. The network was working exactly as designed. The proposal was asking it to work differently for one group of people, however sympathetic their case.

The pull request is now closed. $5 billion in bitcoin remains frozen at the same address it’s been at since 2011. And the creditors who might have benefited chose the principal over the payout.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s fundamental principle of “code is the law” prevailed.

Six Polymarket accounts earned roughly $1.2 million after correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on Feb. 28, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.

In a post on X, Bubblemaps said most of the wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack and bought “Yes” shares in the “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities.The accounts had no activity beyond these predictions.

The strikes followed a televised address by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing what he called “major combat operations,” targeting the country’s missile, naval, and nuclear infrastructure. The attack saw bitcoin’s price drop while oil futures on Hyperliquid rose.

One Polymarket account Bubblemaps pointed to purchased more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at about 10.8 cents each, a position that paid out near $560,000 after the market resolved at $1. Another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, turning a six-figure profit. All six profiles were created in February, according to Polymarket data.

Trading volume on the Feb. 28 contract reached nearly $90 million, part of more than $529 million wagered across related strike-date markets since December.

Bubblemaps published a visual map showing the six wallets clustered together and funded through similar paths.

The trades land as U.S. regulators weigh how to police insider activity on prediction markets. This week, rival platform Kalshi said it suspended and fined two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s “Beast Games” who allegedly traded on knowledge of show outcomes.

Kalshi, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market, said it has investigated about 200 cases and has more than a dozen active probes.

The CFTC issued an advisory noting the enforcement actions and warned that insider trading on event contracts may violate U.S. law. Chairman Mike Selig called exchanges the “first line of defense.” Kalshi banned the employee for two years and fined him more than $20,000. In a separate case, a political candidate was penalized for betting on his own race.

More recently, Polymarket traders have appeared to insider trade a market on insider trading itself. Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT last week teased he would publish the findings of an investigation into a crypto platform, which ended up being Axiom, whose employees he believed used non-public information to trade.

Teasing the investigation was coming, however, led to the creation of a Polymarket contract on which company would be named. Some clearly knew the answer on which company was under investigation, with Lookonchain identifying 12 wallets that heavily bet on Axiom ahead of the reveal.

Some observers noted that even if Iran controlled 5% of global hashrate, the network would continue functioning without disruption.

Bitcoin mining in Iran is back in the spotlight after a viral X post on February 27 claimed the country runs a $1 billion operation that could be wiped out.

The debate has split crypto observers, with some warning of a temporary hashrate shock and others dismissing the claims as exaggerated fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD).

Iran’s Mining Footprint and the Strike Scenario

The discussion began when independent analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera posted that Iran mines Bitcoin at a theoretical cost of $1,320 per BTC using heavily subsidized electricity and then selling it at the current price near $68,000 to extract what he described as a 50x gross margin.

He alleged that around 700,000 mining rigs consume roughly 2,000 megawatts daily, much of it tied to operations linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC.

Perera tied the argument to sanctions, saying Bitcoin allows Iran to convert restricted energy resources into liquid capital beyond the reach of SWIFT prohibitions.

A January 16 report by Chainalysis found that Iran’s total crypto activity exceeded $7.78 billion in 2025. Furthermore, the report said addresses linked to IRGC facilitation networks received more than $3 billion last year, up from just over $2 billion in 2024, and that activity often spiked during military or political crises.

Nonetheless, critics quickly challenged the mining cost assumptions, with analyst Dasha calling the $1,320 figure “100% fake news,” arguing it relies on household electricity rates that cannot be achieved in practice due to blackouts and shortages.

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Hashrate Shocks Are Not New

The objections did not stop there, as miner ZynxBTC dismissed the concern entirely:

“Even if Iran controlled 5% of global hashrate (it doesn’t), and it went offline, the network would continue functioning normally.”

Recent U.S. events support that argument. Earlier in the year, the network continued operating even after a severe winter storm forced major Texas miners offline, pushing the hashrate down from 1.133 ZH/s to 690 EH/s in just a couple of days.

However, Perera argued that grid failure differs from voluntary shutdown. According to his analysis, with tensions brewing in the Middle East, a 7-to-10-day air campaign targeting Iranian military infrastructure would likely collapse electricity generation by an estimated 30% to 50%.

He insisted that mining rigs require continuous power, and even brief outages could destroy active operations. As such, he postulated that a strike on Iran’s already fragile grid could see the country’s estimated 2% to 5% share of the global hashrate drop to zero within days, triggering a difficulty adjustment that would extend block times and temporarily spike transaction fees. As CryptoPotato reported, the US and Israel have already launched strikes on Iran earlier today.

Still, others argued that the Bitcoin network has withstood even larger shocks, with researcher Furkan Yildirim noting that China removed more than half of the global hashrate in 2021, yet the network soon adjusted as miners relocated.

“An Iranian grid failure would be a rounding error by comparison,” he tweeted.

A group of 11 US senators has asked federal authorities to investigate whether crypto exchange Binance is complying with US sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) requirements, citing recent reports.

In a letter on Friday to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Attorney General Pamela Bondi, the lawmakers urged a “prompt, comprehensive review” of the exchange’s compliance controls and its adherence to settlement agreements reached in 2023.

The senators pointed to allegations that approximately $1.7 billion in digital assets flowed through Binance to Iranian entities linked to terrorism, including groups connected to the Houthis and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Investigators also reportedly identified more than 1,500 accounts accessed by users in Iran and potential activity connected to Russian sanctions evasion.

According to the letter, some Binance compliance staff who uncovered suspicious transactions were later dismissed, and law enforcement agencies said the exchange had become less cooperative in providing customer information.

Related: Binance stablecoin reserves have sunk 19% since November

Senators warn Binance products could enable sanctions evasion

Senators Chris Van Hollen and Ruben Gallego, joined by Angela D. Alsobrooks, Andy Kim, Raphael Warnock, Tina Smith, Catherine Cortez Masto, Mark R. Warner, Elizabeth Warren, Jack Reed and Lisa Blunt Rochester, signed the letter.

They also raised concerns about newer products, including payment cards launched in parts of the former Soviet Union and partnerships tied to stablecoin initiatives, which they warned could facilitate sanctions evasion.

The senators asked the agencies to report by March 13 on any steps taken to examine the exchange’s conduct.

On Tuesday, Senator Richard Blumenthal, ranking member of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, also launched a congressional inquiry into Binance. He sent a letter to Binance CEO Richard Teng requesting documents and internal records related to the exchange’s sanctions controls.

Related: Binance confirms employee targeted as three arrested in France break-in

Binance denies Iran-linked transaction claims

In a statement to Cointelegraph this week, Binance rejected allegations that its platform facilitated illicit transactions, saying it identified and reported suspicious activity to authorities and does not allow Iranian users. A company spokesperson said recent media coverage misrepresented the exchange’s operations.

Last week, the exchange also disputed a report claiming it processed more than $1 billion in Iran-linked transfers and denied dismissing investigators over the issue.

Teng has also criticized a Wall Street Journal report alleging $1.7 billion in Iran-related activity, calling it defamatory and seeking a retraction.

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