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What next for BTC as it slides under $71,000

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What next for BTC as it slides under $71,000

Bitcoin got to $74,000 and ran out of further buying pressure.

The largest cryptocurrency pulled back to $70,987 by Friday’s Asian session, down 2.2% over the past 24 hours after Thursday’s surge carried it to its highest level since early February. The rally from Saturday’s war-driven low near $64,000 to Thursday’s $74,000 peak amounted to roughly 15% in five days, but the retreat since has given back about a third of that move.

Chart watchers such as FxPro chief analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed to the rejection coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and just below the 50-day moving average, two technical barriers that tend to attract sellers in bear market rallies.

Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from a mathematical sequence that traders use to identify where a bounce is likely to stall. The idea is that after a large move down, prices tend to retrace a predictable percentage of that drop before resuming the trend. The 61.8% level is the most closely watched because it represents the point where a recovery has retraced roughly two-thirds of its losses, far enough to feel convincing but historically where bear market rallies tend to die.

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The 50-day moving average, meanwhile, is simply the average closing price over the past 50 days. It acts as a moving line of resistance during downtrends because it represents the price at which the average recent buyer breaks even, giving them an incentive to sell rather than hold. Bitcoin hitting both at the same time makes $74,000 a technically crowded level.

Kuptsikevich noted that “the bulls still have to convince the community that the bear market is over,” adding that the magnitude of the move was driven by a short squeeze from bears who “pulled their stops too close to the market price.”

Bitunix analysts flagged a similar read on the microstructure. The push to $74,000 triggered concentrated short liquidations, while long leverage liquidation clusters sit around $70,000. Secondary liquidity pools are near $64,000. That creates a defined range for the next move, with the floor and ceiling both visible on the liquidation heat map.

The weekly numbers still look strong for majors. Bitcoin is up 5.4% over seven days. Ether gained 2.7% to $2,080. BNB added 3.1% to $648. Solana rose 2.1% to $88.39. The laggards were dogecoin, down 3.7% on the week, and XRP, essentially flat with a 0.2% decline.

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The macro picture heading into the weekend is messy, however.

Asia’s benchmark stock index has dropped 6.4% since the Iran war broke out, with MSCI’s regional gauge heading for its worst week since March 2020. The dollar is on pace for its best week since November 2024. Oil is posting its biggest weekly surge since 2022. Those are not the conditions that typically sustain a crypto rally.

Friday brought some tentative relief. Asian equities erased early losses as the dollar weakened and crude prices dipped on reports that the U.S. was weighing options to address the energy cost spike.

But the war isn’t over. The Senate failed to block Trump’s continued military actions against Iran, leaving conflict costs and energy disruption as open variables. Defense Secretary Hegseth has said operations could last three to eight weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disrupted.

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The $70,000 level that was resistance for a month is now the first test of support. Holding it would suggest the breakout is real. Losing it puts the $64,000 floor back in play.

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Crypto World

Fed, FDIC, OCC Clear Tokenized Assets for Bank Balance Sheets

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • The Fed, OCC, and FDIC confirmed tokenized securities get identical capital treatment to traditional assets at U.S. banks.
  • Banks can now use tokenized stocks and bonds as loan collateral under the same rules as conventional securities.
  • The guidance covers both public blockchains like Ethereum and private permissioned networks without distinction.
  • Derivatives tied to tokenized assets also receive standard regulatory treatment, expanding the scope significantly.

U.S. banking regulators have issued landmark joint guidance clearing banks to hold tokenized securities under the same rules as conventional financial assets. 

The Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation released the coordinated announcement together. 

It confirms that a tokenized stock, bond, or other asset carries identical capital treatment to its off-chain equivalent. The move removes a regulatory barrier that major financial institutions had cited for years as a reason to stay off blockchain rails.

Banks Can Now Use Tokenized Assets as Standard Collateral

The guidance covers three core operational changes for U.S. banks. 

First, tokenized securities are now eligible collateral for loans, treated identically to traditional stocks or bonds. Second, the rules apply regardless of whether the token sits on a public blockchain like Ethereum or a private permissioned network. 

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Third, financial derivatives linked to tokenized assets receive the same treatment as conventional derivatives.

That last point carries significant weight. Derivatives markets dwarf spot markets in volume. Extending identical regulatory treatment to tokenized derivatives opens a much larger surface area for blockchain adoption.

The announcement does not require new legislation. It is guidance, meaning banks can act on it immediately. No waiting period applies.

For institutions like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, the obstacle was never technological. 

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According to posts on X, including commentary from @BullTheoryio and @markchadwickx, major banks were awaiting exactly this kind of regulatory clarity before moving capital onto blockchain infrastructure.

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Tokenization Market Stands to Absorb Trillions in Traditional Capital

The addressable pool of assets is enormous. Global equity markets alone exceed $100 trillion. Bond markets add tens of trillions more.

Real estate sits on top of that. Most of that capital has remained off-chain, not due to technical limitations, but due to unresolved regulatory questions around how tokenized versions would be treated on bank balance sheets.

That question now has a clear answer. A tokenized Apple share carries the same legal claim, the same ownership rights, and the same balance sheet weight as a traditional share. Regulators have confirmed this directly.

The practical effect is that banks can begin integrating tokenized securities into existing workflows without restructuring their risk or compliance frameworks. This lowers the operational cost of adoption substantially.

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Public blockchains are specifically included in the guidance. That detail matters. Many institutions assumed regulators would favor private, permissioned networks. 

The explicit inclusion of public chains broadens the infrastructure eligible to handle institutional-grade asset flows

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Lyn Alden Tips Bitcoin Outperforming Gold Through to 2029

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Cryptocurrencies, Gold, Bitcoin Price, Adoption

Bitcoin is likely to outperform gold on price performance through to 2029 after gold’s strong recent rally, says macroeconomist Lyn Alden.

“If I had to bet Bitcoin versus gold over the next two to three years, I would bet Bitcoin,” Alden said on the New Era Finance podcast on Wednesday.

“Gun to my head, if I had to say which one I think outperforms, I would say Bitcoin,” she added.

“It’s usually a pendulum between the two. If gold has gone up as much as it did, the entire diminishing return story per cycle is going to be erased in the coming one, too.”

Many crypto industry executives, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1 million by 2030 with clearer regulations taking shape in the US, which Armstrong called a “bellwether for the rest of the G20.” 

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Alden dismisses that gold is in a bubble

Bitcoin is often compared to gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, with many investors dubbing it “digital gold.” 

Alden said gold is seeing “somewhat euphoric” sentiment after it reached a new all-time high of around $5,608 in January.

“I wouldn’t say it’s a bubble, but it’s somewhat euphoric,” she said.

Cryptocurrencies, Gold, Bitcoin Price, Adoption
Lyn Alden was interviewed on the New Era Finance podcast this week. Source: New Era Finance podcast

The JM Bullion gold Fear and Greed Index, which tracks sentiment toward gold, posted a “Greed” score of 72 out of 100 on Friday. On the same day, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures sentiment across Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 18 out of 100.

Alden said that the sentiment toward Bitcoin is “somewhat unfairly negative.” Bitcoin is trading at $71,164, down 44% from its October all-time high of $126,000, according to CoinMarketCap.

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Alden said she avoids relying too heavily on rigid narratives about the relationship between the two assets.

“I try to be hesitant about reading into how absolute these things are. Gold and Bitcoin can go up together, they can go down together,” she explained.

Investors debate Bitcoin’s narrative

While the two assets are often grouped together as alternatives to fiat currencies, the relationship isn’t always consistent; sometimes the prices move in tandem during periods of macro uncertainty, and other times they decouple.