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What to Expect From January US Nonfarm Payrolls Data

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What to Expect From January US Nonfarm Payrolls Data

The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.

Volatility around the US Dollar (USD) will likely ramp up on the employment report, with investors looking for fresh insights on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path forward on interest rates.

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What to Expect From the Next Nonfarm Payrolls Report?

The BLS reported early last week that it had postponed the release of the official employment report, originally scheduled on Friday, due to the partial government shutdown. After the US House passed a package on Tuesday to end the shutdown, the agency announced that it will release the labor market data on Wednesday, February 11.

Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December. In this period, the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, is projected to soften to 3.6% from 3.8%.

Previewing the employment report, TD Securities analysts note that they expect job gains to have remained subdued in January, increasing by 45K.

“We look for private to add 40K and government to add 5K. We expect private sector strength to be concentrated in healthcare and construction. We look for the Unemployment Rate to show continued signs of stabilization, remaining at 4.4%. The low-fire, low-hire labor market remains. Average Hourly Earnings likely increased 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y,” they add.

How Will the US September Nonfarm Payrolls Affect Eur/USD?

The USD started the month on a firm footing as markets reacted to the nomination of Kevin Warsh, who served as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011, as the new chair of the Fed. Meanwhile, the USD also benefited from the heightened volatility surrounding precious metals, especially Silver and Gold, and Stock markets. 

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In turn, the USD Index, which gauges the USD’s valuation against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.5% in the first week of February. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said earlier in the month that she believes the labor market will continue to be supported by last year’s interest rate cuts. 

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Cook further noted that the labor market has stabilized and is approximately in balance, adding that policymakers remain highly attentive to the potential for a rapid shift. 

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Similarly, Governor Philip Jefferson argued that the job market is likely in balance with a low-hire, low-fire environment. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in about a 15% probability of a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut in March. 

In case the NFP reading disappoints, with a print below 30K, and the Unemployment Rate rises unexpectedly, the USD could come under pressure with the immediate reaction, opening the door to a leg higher in EUR/USD. On the other hand, an NFP figure at or above the market expectation could reaffirm another policy hold next month. 

The market positioning suggests that the USD has some room on the upside in this scenario. Investors will also pay close attention to the wage inflation component of the report. 

If Average Hourly Earnings rise less than expected, the USD could find it difficult to gather strength, even if the headline NFP print arrives near the market forecast.

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Danske Bank analysts argue that softer wage growth could negatively impact consumer activity and pave the way for a dovish Fed action.

“The Challenger report showed more job cuts than expected in January and the JOLTs Job Openings came in at 6.5m in December (consensus 7.2m). Hence, the US ratio of job openings to unemployed fell to just 0.87 in December. Such cooling is usually a good predictor for weakening wage growth and may be a concern for the private consumption outlook and, all else equal, supports the case for earlier cuts from the Fed,” they explain.

Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:

“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds above 50, and EUR/USD fluctuates above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after having tested this dynamic support last week, reflecting buyers’ willingness to retain control.” “On the upside, 1.2000 (round level, psychological level) aligns as the next resistance before 1.2080 (January 27 high) and 1.2160 (static level). Looking south, the first key support level could be spotted at 1.1680, where the 100-day SMA is located, before 1.1620-1.1600 (200-day SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the January 2025-January 2026 uptrend). A decisive drop below this support region could attract technical sellers and open the door for an extended slide.”

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) drawdown hasn’t shaken institutional investors yet, says CoinShares

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BTC long-term bull case remains, says Fabian Dori

The first phase of bitcoin’s recent drawdown has not triggered panic among institutional investors, according to crypto asset management firm CoinShares.

Professional allocators reduced exposure modestly but largely maintained their positions compared with last year. Advisors trimmed holdings while hedge funds scaled back alongside the broader leverage unwind and shifting opportunities in other markets, the crypto investment manager said in a Tuesday report.

Longer-duration investors kept accumulating. “Endowments, pensions, and sovereigns continued to build quietly,” wrote analyst Matt Kimmell.

Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum since hitting a record high near $125,000 in early October. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $72,370 at publication time.

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Crypto markets have delivered muted performance in recent months as a mix of macro and market-specific pressures weighed on prices. Higher interest rates and a stronger dollar have dampened appetite for risk assets, while leveraged positions built earlier in the rally have been unwound. At the same time, profit-taking from long-term bitcoin holders and uneven flows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have limited momentum, leaving the sector struggling to regain a sustained upward trend.

Despite bitcoin falling about 23% during the period, global bitcoin ETF flows remained positive, suggesting the sell-off in the fourth quarter was driven more by long-time holders taking profits than by new institutional money exiting the market, Kimmell said.

Historically, crypto bear markets have redistributed supply from short-term traders to long-term holders. According to Kimmell, the emergence of ETFs now offers a new way to observe whether institutional capital follows the same pattern.

So far, the data points in that direction. A roughly 25% quarterly drawdown did not trigger broad institutional capitulation, the report said, with most declines in assets under management reflecting price moves rather than large investor outflows.

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Still, CoinShares cautioned that the sample size remains small. The firm said the real test may appear in upcoming regulatory filings, which will capture institutional behavior during sharper moves, including bitcoin’s slide toward $60,000 and a single-day 17% drop.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market moved higher this week, rebounding after weeks of choppy trading. The rally was driven in part by renewed risk appetite across markets and steady demand for bitcoin ETFs, helping the largest cryptocurrency regain momentum and lift major altcoins alongside it. Traders also pointed to short covering and positioning resets following the recent sell-off as factors behind the move.

Read more: CEO of crypto investment firm Keyrock says bitcoin is undervalued, entering ‘transition year’

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Revolut Files for US Bank Charter and Names Former Visa Executive Cetin Duransoy as New US CEO

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Revolut has filed for a US bank charter with the OCC and FDIC to offer full banking services in America. 
  • Former Visa executive Cetin Duransoy has been named Revolut’s new CEO for United States operations. 
  • Revolut plans to invest $500 million in the US over three to five years covering capital, marketing, and hiring. 
  • Revolut’s global valuation reached $75 billion following a secondary share sale completed in November 2024.

Revolut has officially filed for a U.S. bank charter, marking a major move into the American financial market. The British fintech giant also named former Visa executive Cetin Duransoy as its new United States CEO.

With around 70 million clients across 40 markets, Revolut is targeting the U.S. as a core part of its global expansion.

The applications have been submitted to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation for review.

Revolut Eyes US Banking Approval to Expand Financial Services

If regulators approve the applications, Revolut plans to gather deposits and issue loans in the U.S. The company also intends to offer credit cards and facilitate payments for American customers.

This would represent a full-scale banking operation, moving beyond its current limited U.S. presence. Revolut currently serves American users primarily through payment and foreign exchange services.

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Revolut founder and CEO Nik Storonsky made the company’s intentions clear in a recent statement. “The United States is a key pillar of our global growth strategy,” Storonsky said.

He added that a stronger U.S. presence is necessary to reach 100 million global customers. The company is expected to invest $500 million in the U.S. over the next three to five years.

That $500 million figure covers bank capital, marketing, and new hiring across the country. Outgoing U.S. CEO Sid Jajodia confirmed the investment scope in a recent interview.

Jajodia will transition into a global chief banking officer role as Duransoy steps in. Duransoy’s background at Visa brings strong financial industry experience to Revolut’s U.S. operations.

Revolut’s strategy involves attracting users first as a secondary bank account. Services like payments and foreign exchange act as entry points for new customers.

Over time, the company woos users with perks and subscription-based offerings. This model has already proven effective across Europe and other international markets.

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Revolut’s US Push Comes Amid Growing Neobank Competition

Revolut is not alone in pursuing a U.S. banking license among global neobanks. Brazil’s Nubank is currently awaiting full approval for its own U.S. banking license.

Spain’s Santander launched a digital bank in the U.S. in 2024 and recently announced an acquisition. These moves show that international digital banks are actively competing for U.S. customers.

To raise brand awareness in the U.S., Revolut plans to pursue sponsorship opportunities. The company already sponsors the Audi Formula 1 team, soccer clubs, and music festivals globally.

Similar partnerships in the U.S. could help boost its visibility among American consumers. Marketing investment is built into the $500 million U.S. spending plan.

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On the topic of a potential IPO, Jajodia declined to comment on any timeline. He noted that private market capital remains available and accessible for the company.

Revolut completed a secondary share sale in November, valuing the company at $75 billion. That valuation places Revolut among the most valuable private fintech companies in the world.

Revolut’s U.K. bank continues to operate under some restrictions during a mobilization phase. The restrictions are tied to the bank’s size as it scales its operations.

However, the company appears focused on moving forward with its international growth plans. The U.S. charter application is the clearest sign yet of that ambition.

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New Berkshire Hathaway CEO still talks with Warren Buffett nearly every day

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Berkshire CEO Greg Abel on succeeding Warren Buffett: I still check in with him nearly every day
Berkshire CEO Greg Abel on succeeding Warren Buffett: I still check in with him nearly every day

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel said he still speaks with Warren Buffett nearly every day, underscoring the continued presence of the legendary investor at the sprawling conglomerate, even after handing over the top job at the start of the year.

Buffett, who stepped down as CEO after more than six decades at the helm, remains chairman of the Omaha-based company and continues to come into the office regularly, Abel said.

“He’s in the office every day, so we’re talking every day if I’m in Omaha, we’re always connecting,” Abel said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Thursday. “If I’m traveling, like I was yesterday, I often check in just to catch up on what he’s seeing, what he’s hearing, what am I feeling. So if it’s not every day, it’s every couple days.”

Abel also acknowledged the challenge of stepping into Buffett’s role as Berkshire’s chief communicator to shareholders, particularly when writing his first annual letter to investors.

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“The shoes to fill are tough on all fronts, but Warren is an exceptional communicator,” Abel said. “It was not easy. I’ve told Warren, ‘listen, the responsibilities transferred are great, but as far as the work and the task I had to do, that was the toughest.’”

Abel used the letter to shareholders to outline a clear framework of foundational values centered on financial strength and disciplined investing, vowing to preserve the blueprint Buffett carefully orchestrated since the 1960s.

Buffett offered little comfort, Abel added with a laugh. “When we were discussing it, he said, ‘the second letter doesn’t get any easier.’”

On investing, Abel said Berkshire is unlikely to move into cryptocurrencies, echoing Buffett’s longstanding skepticism of the asset class.

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“I don’t think you’ll see crypto … I just don’t see it,” Abel said.

He left the door open to investments tied to technology, however.

“What I do see is that when it comes to technology, even from an operational perspective, where we’re seeing how we use it, the impact it’s having, it does allow us to develop strong views and a better knowledge base around certain companies that are technology companies, or how we’re using the technology. So technology will always be on the table,” Abel said.

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ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, and HYPE

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eth_price_chart_0503261

This Thursday, we examine Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Hyperliquid in greater detail.

Ethereum (ETH)

With $2,000 support secured, Ethereum has a good shot at testing the $2,400 resistance in the near future. This also allowed the price to close the week with a 2% gain.

The current PA shows a clear reversal pattern, with a bullish engulfing candle indicating buyers are back in control. To secure their dominance, they will need to break above $2,400 as well.

Looking ahead, the most important resistance on the chart is found at $2,800. Thus, bulls may be able to keep Ethereum in a rally until then. Once there, sellers could return in force.

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eth_price_chart_0503261
Source: TradingView

Ripple (XRP)

XRP turned bullish this week and reclaimed the $1.4 support level. While the price fell by a modest 2% compared to last week, the recent buying spree sends a strong bullish signal to market participants.

The most important resistance point is at $1.6, which will need to become support if buyers want to keep XRP in a sustained uptrend. Any weakness there will quickly be exploited by sellers.

Looking ahead, after a prolonged downtrend, this cryptocurrency is finally giving signs that the selloff may be behind us and a recovery is likely.

xrp_price_chart_0503261
Source: TradingView

Cardano (ADA)

Cardano had a difficult start this week, falling by 7%. Buyers tried multiple times to reclaim the support at 28 cents, but each time they were rejected, including this week. This is a sign of weakness.

As long as ADA keeps failing to move above 28 cents, it is unlikely for any bullish momentum to form. Should selling intensify, the price may fall to 24 cents again, as it did earlier this year.

Looking ahead, this cryptocurrency is in a tough spot. While most altcoins are giving signs of a reversal, Cardano still lags behind its peers. Hopefully, this will change soon and push the price back into an uptrend.

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ada_price_chart_0503261
Source: TradingView

Binance Coin (BNB)

Binance Coin moved higher by 4% this week after buyers defended the $580 support well. Their current target is the resistance at $690, which may be challenging to break through, given the previous price action.

Even if sellers attempt to defend the current resistance, bullish momentum is intensifying and may be enough to drive a quick relief rally towards $900.

Looking ahead, BNB has a clear shot at a rally in the weeks to come, considering that since late 2025, the price has been in a downtrend. A sustained rally appears likely and may be quite significant.

bnb_price_chart_0503261
Source: TradingView

Hype (HYPE)

HYPE closed the week 12% higher and reclaimed a price above the key $30 support. As long as the price holds above this level, the bulls have the upper hand, and they may aim to break the resistance at $36 next.

While the momentum is bullish, there is a bit of lag since the price moved above $30. This should not last long since it would encourage sellers to return and put pressure on that support again.

Looking ahead, HYPE needs to break the $36 resistance to maintain a bullish bias in the coming weeks. Hopefully, buying volume will increase to sustain the current move into higher highs.

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hype_price_chart_0503261
Source: TradingView
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Cardano Gets Real-World Checkout Rails in 137 Swiss Spar Stores

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Cardano Gets Real-World Checkout Rails in 137 Swiss Spar Stores

Supermarket giant Spar has enabled ADA payment rails for customers in 137 Swiss stores, as the country moves closer to its global crypto hub ambitions.

Switzerland’s push as a crypto-friendly hub is getting a new retail test case, with Cardano’s ADA token now usable for grocery purchases at Spar stores across the country.

Cardano (ADA) users can start paying for their groceries in 137 Spar supermarkets across Switzerland after the latest Open Crypto Pay integration from Swiss fintech firm DFX.swiss, the Cardano Foundation said Thursday.

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The system is designed to process transactions in real time and allow payments directly from ADA wallets without routing through a centralized exchange. For merchants, Open Crypto pay reduces transaction costs by about two-thirds compared to traditional cards, according to the announcement.

Frederik Gregaard, the CEO of the Swiss-based Cardano Foundation, called the development the “beginning of a fundamental shift in how value moves through society,” which marks the blockchain industry’s transition from an experimental phase to “genuine financial transformation.” 

Source: Cardano Foundation

Spar first rolled out nationwide crypto and stablecoin payments in Switzerland in August 2025 for 100 stores via Binance Pay and DFX.swiss, with plans at the time to extend to 300 stores.

Related: Switzerland delays crypto tax info sharing until 2027

Tether, Lugano commit $6.4 million to global crypto hub ambitions

Separately, on Tuesday, Tether and the city of Lugano committed 5 million Swiss francs ($6.4 million) to a second phase of the city’s Plan B forum between 2026 and 2030, which aims to make Lugano a “global hub for digital asset infrastructure.”

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Lugano has already allowed residents to pay certain municipal fees in Bitcoin (BTC) and USDt (USDT) as part of an effort to embed digital assets into the local economy.