Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week facing fresh macro risks as gold plummets and traders wait for $50,000.

• BTC price action ends the week below a key trend line, and traders see little more than an early-week bounce for bulls.

• Price looks more and more like it is repeating January’s bear flag — and targets now call for new multiyear lows.

• Gold enters a technical bear market and oil returns to $100 as Iran tensions continue.

• Traders start to consider Fed rate hikes in 2026, but history could still offer risk assets some relief.

• Bitcoin’s long-term holders have been selling at a loss throughout March.

Bitcoin weekly close loses 200-week trend line

After a rough weekend, Bitcoin struggled to reclaim support as TradFi traders returned to start the week.

Data from TradingView shows price dipping to near $67,400 into the weekly close, which lost control of the key 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) trend line.

Analysis previously saw a close above the 200-week EMA, currently at $68,300, as key to protecting bulls going forward.

In his latest X analysis on BTC price action released on Sunday, trader CrypNuevo forecast that the market would continue to hinge on geopolitics.

“It feels like we’ll be stuck in this range for the next month too,” he summarized.

“We could see some conflict escalation (uncertainty) next week that could trigger a new visit to the range lows where an interesting 4h long wick still sits there.”

CrypNuevo referred to Bitcoin’s sub-$60,000 swing low seen in early February.

“In LTF, I’ll be favoring a potential price rotation to $65k next week,” he continued about low time frames. 

“I’d like to position for this around $70k if we see a short-lived push to the upside at the start of the week. But with caution, because acceptance above $71k would invalidate it and I’d long to $73k-$74k.”

Liquidations stayed high into Monday, with over $400 million erased over 24 hours, per data from CoinGlass.

With liquidity stacked above price, trader Castillo Trading eyed a potential short squeeze to take it.

Still think the R/R to the upside from here on $BTC Just makes sense. Maybe a little lower below $67,200 but still seems like it’s worth the punt.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/5209rwtdlp

— Castillo Trading (@CastilloTrading) March 23, 2026

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Commenting on the latest price moves, meanwhile, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant hinted that the weekend’s downside volatility was nothing out of the ordinary.

“During weekends, institutional participation declines significantly, and spot-driven demand—especially from ETF flows—effectively pauses. As a result, the market becomes more dependent on derivatives positioning and short-term liquidity conditions,” contributor XWIN Research Japan wrote in a “QuickTake” blog post. 

“Lower liquidity also amplifies price sensitivity. With thinner order books, relatively small sell orders can trigger larger price movements, often leading to cascading effects such as stop-loss activation or liquidation events.”

XWIN stressed that weekend price action “should not be interpreted as a signal of trend continuation or reversal.”

Traders eye January bear flag breakdown repeat

For Bitcoin bulls, history risks repeating itself already this week — and just like before, bears appear to be in the driving seat.

Concerns revolve around another bear flag pattern currently playing out on the daily chart.

Here, a macro downtrend is punctuated by a period of relief, giving some the impression that the trend has reversed. Price then drops through the bottom of the flag and the downtrend continues to new lows.

As Cointelegraph reported, traders have long warned about a second bear flag and its consequences after the first completed in January.

$BTC is compressing inside a rising wedge.

Price is coiling between $66K support and $76K resistance, a breakout from this range decides the next major move. pic.twitter.com/NZG3lrJ9qw

— Gerla (@CryptoGerla) March 20, 2026

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“It looks almost exactly the same. Bear Flag Breakdown & Retest with low volume on the upward move,” trader Roman told X followers last week after BTC/USD hit six-week highs of $76,000.

After the weekend, trader Jelle went further, suggesting that price had already broken support.

“Not a great way to start the week if you’re a bull. Consolidate here for a day or two and those untapped lows look ripe for the taking,” he warned.

On Saturday, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, suggested that the bear-flag breakdown target could be below $50,000.

That’s consistent with the target a measured move down from this bear flag would deliver. pic.twitter.com/oWI7NvbeZ5

— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) March 21, 2026

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Gold hits bear market on Iran oil woes

The worsening global energy crisis focused on the Middle East is already taking a fresh toll on risk assets and safe havens this week.

Asian stock markets tumbled during their first session, while gold and silver also came under heavy selling pressure. Bitcoin joined them, hitting two-week lows into Sunday’s weekly close. 

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter even suggested that the downside in gold could have claimed a large-volume market participant.

“The sporadic moves in price could signal that a potential large player in the space is being liquidated,” it told X followers.

Kobeissi added that rising US 10-year treasury note yields were “beginning to weigh on various asset classes.”

“Combine this with headline fatigue and ‘pockets’ of illiquidity in the market, and the massive gaps to both directions are only growing,” it added. 

“Something big is happening metals markets right now.”

Now down over 20% since its all-time high, XAU/USD officially entered bear-market territory, hitting local lows of $4,099 per ounce — a level not seen since November 2025.

Oil, meanwhile, increasingly sought to stay above the $100 mark as uncertainty over flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued.

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company stressed the potential impact on future US inflation readings.

“Oil prices are directly correlated to headline inflation, where a $10 increase per barrel can push inflation higher by 0.20% or more. And even before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, there are growing signs that inflation is already inflecting higher,” it noted.

Risk-asset hope remains despite hawkish Fed

This week has little by way of key inflation reports, with jobless claims and S&P Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data taking center stage.

Crypto has shown sensitivity to PMI releases in recent months, with US manufacturing finally on the up after several years of retraction.

At the same time, headwinds from the Iran war are mounting, as shown by the hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve at last week’s meeting.

After leaving interest rates unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell said that any loosening of policy would now depend on “progress” being made on inflation. 

“As a result, the market is quickly repricing the outlook for rate cuts,” Mosaic Asset Company commented. 

“While market-implied odds don’t point to another rate cut for over a year, another key indicator is suggesting that rate hikes could be in store.”

The conservative stance came despite weakening US labor-market conditions — traditionally cause to reassess restrictive policy measures.

A silver lining, however, could lie in store for risk assets in the form of historical patterns repeating. As Cointelegraph reported, crypto’s positive stocks correlation has recently grown.

“Conditions across breadth and sentiment are evolving to support a rally in the S&P 500. At the same time, historic precedent for market movements around major geopolitical events also hint that a rebound could be in store for the stock market,” Mosaic continued.

Kobeissi had similar ideas, reporting “skyrocketing” trading activity across stocks and last week’s giant options expiry event freeing up capital.

“Friday’s volume was also amplified by ~$5.7 trillion in options tied to US stocks, indexes, and ETFs expiring in the largest March triple-witching in at least 30 years,” it wrote on X. 

“The massive volume of expired options has released billions in capital, which could drive significant market swings this week. Brace for more market volatility.”

Bitcoin old hands sell at a loss

Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are feeling the pressure at current levels — even without a rematch with range lows.

Related: Bitcoin RSI signals potential bottom as analysts flag key setup

CryptoQuant research reveals “capitulation” signals from the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures whether coins moving onchain are doing so at a higher or lower price than during their previous transaction.

SOPR readings below 1 mean that the observed supply — in this case that owned by LTHs — is on aggregate moving at a loss.

“On March 11, the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR dropped to 0.64, meaning long-term holders were selling their coins at a 36% loss relative to their cost basis. This is one of the most extreme LTH capitulation readings in recent months,” contributor The Enigma Trader commented. 

“A value this far below 1.0 indicates that even patient, conviction holders were being shaken out, a sign of genuine fear in the market.”

The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR is still below 1 — even as large tranches of BTC leave exchanges in a potential emerging accumulation trend.

“One possible interpretation: while long-term holders were capitulating between March 10–20, a separate cohort was quietly absorbing supply and moving coins off exchanges,” it continued. 

“Distribution and accumulation happening simultaneously, a classic phase transition setup.”