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Why Bitcoin Must Clear $68K to Avoid Another Big Leg Down

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Why Bitcoin Must Clear $68K to Avoid Another Big Leg Down

Bitcoin is still in a corrective phase after the sharp selloff, and the price is now trying to stabilize around $66,000. The bigger picture is simple, as momentum is bearish on the daily time frame, but short-term structure is tightening. So, the next breakout from consolidation likely decides whether this is a bottom or just a pause before another leg down.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC remains below the 100-day and the 200-day moving averages, indicating the overall bearish trend. The price is also trading inside a broader downward channel, and the breakdown from the prior support area around $75,000-$80,000 has turned that zone into a key supply region. As long as Bitcoin stays below the mid $70,000s, rallies can still be sold into, especially if they fail near the moving averages.

The near-term demand zone to watch sits around $60,000, where buyers previously stepped in and where the market is likely to defend again if volatility returns. If that floor breaks cleanly, the next major support area comes in around $50,000 to $53,000. Meanwhile, the RSI has recovered from the most oversold readings, but it is still not showing the kind of strength you usually see at the start of a new uptrend, so confirmation matters more than hope here.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is compressing into a symmetrical triangle after the dump, with lower highs capping the price while the lows are holding higher. This kind of structure often precedes a decisive move because liquidity builds on both sides. The upper trigger is near $68,000, and a clean break and hold above it can open a push toward $73,000, where the larger resistance zone begins.

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If the triangle breaks to the downside, the first test is typically the range low around $62,000, followed by the deeper daily demand zone around $60,000. The key detail is that the current consolidation is happening after a strong down move, so downside breaks can accelerate quickly if bids step away. Therefore, buyers will need a breakout that holds, not just a wick, because fake outs are common when the broader trend is still down.

Sentiment Analysis

The open interest chart shows a steep decline into the current period, dropping toward about $20.4B, while the price also fell sharply. That combination usually signals forced deleveraging, meaning liquidations and position closures rather than a calm, organic pullback. In practice, it often marks the point where the market flushes out excessive leverage, which can reduce immediate downside pressure.

The next clue is what happens if open interest starts rising again. If open interest rebuilds while the price holds above $62,500 and pushes above $68,000, it suggests traders are re-entering with confidence, which can support a continuation rally. However, if open interest climbs while the asset stays heavy and fails under $68,000, it can set up another liquidation wave, because fresh leverage tends to become fuel for the next squeeze down when the trend is still bearish.

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Crypto World

The US Dollar Index (DXY) Climbs to a One-and-a-Half-Month High

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) Climbs to a One-and-a-Half-Month High

Today, the US Dollar Index rose above the 98.70 level for the first time since the third week of January. Monday’s trading opened with a bullish gap, and upward momentum continues to build as news emerges of a major escalation in the Middle East:

→ Demand for safe-haven assets: Historically, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds have served as primary refuges for capital during periods of heightened uncertainty.

→ Military activity around the Strait of Hormuz is pushing oil prices higher (WTI jumped by approximately 10% yesterday) along with gas prices. This creates a direct pathway to another wave of global inflation.

Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart

Six days ago, when analysing the US Dollar Index (DXY) chart, we:

→ Reaffirmed the validity of the descending channel (marked in red), which originated in November 2025.
→ Once again highlighted the strength of demand, reflected in the confident upward trajectory (shown by the arrow) following the false break below the multi-month low of 96.50 at the end of January.
→ Suggested that bulls could regain momentum and break the prevailing downtrend.

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Indeed, price action in early March confirms this view: the descending channel is losing relevance, being replaced by an upward trajectory marked in blue. In this context, developments in the Middle East are of critical importance:

→ If tensions begin to ease, the DXY may stabilise around the median line of the blue ascending channel.

→ A renewed escalation and the collapse of potential negotiations could trigger a further advance towards the upper boundary of the blue channel.

It is also worth noting that the area around the 98 level may now serve as support:

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→ This zone previously saw rapid price appreciation, signalling strong buying pressure.
→ It was also the point of a bullish breakout from the red channel and above the 97.98 resistance level.

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OpenZeppelin says EVMbench’s Dataset Contains Training Data Leaks

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Blockchain security firm OpenZeppelin says it has found methodological flaws and data contamination in its audit of OpenAI’s new artificial intelligence benchmark for blockchain security, EVMbench.  

EVMbench was launched in partnership with crypto investment firm Paradigm in mid-February. It was built to evaluate how well different artificial intelligence models can identify, patch, and exploit smart contract vulnerabilities.

In an X post on Monday, OpenZeppelin said it welcomed the initiative but recently decided to put EVMbench “through the same scrutiny” it applies to all the protocols it helps secure, including the likes of decentralized finance heavyweights Aave, Lido and Uniswap.

In its audit, OpenZeppelin found two key issues: training data contamination and classification issues related to several high-severity vulnerabilities.

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“We reviewed the dataset and identified methodological flaws and invalid vulnerability classifications, including at least four issues labeled high severity that are not exploitable in practice,” OpenZeppelin said.

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Source: OpenZeppelin

The release of the EVMbench saw an evaluation of how well AI agents could theoretically exploit smart contract vulnerabilities. Anthropic’s Claude Open 4.6 topped the list, followed by OpenAI’s OC-GPT-5.2 and Google’s Gemini 3 Pro.

EVMbench testing may need revising

Looking at the first issue in data contamination, OpenZeppelin said the most important capability in “AI security is finding novel vulnerabilities in code the model has never seen before.”

However, during the EVMbench’s testing of AI agents, OpenZeppelin said that all the AI agents that scored the highest had “likely been exposed to the benchmark’s vulnerability reports during pretraining.”

During EVMbench testing, internet access was cut off for the AI agents, meaning they couldn’t simply search for solutions to problems. However, the benchmark was based on curated vulnerabilities from 120 audits conducted between 2024 and mid-2025, with the knowledge training cutoffs for these agents generally set to mid-2025.

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As such, it ran the risk that the AI agents already had the answers to all of the problems stored in their memory.

“While this does not necessarily enable the model to identify the issue immediately, it reduces the quality of the test. The dataset’s limited size further narrows the evaluation surface, making these contamination concerns more significant,” OpenZeppelin said.

​Related: Energym AI dystopia goes viral as crypto projects tout user-owned AI agents

Finally, OpenZeppelin said that there had been some significant factual errors in the EVMbench’s dataset, arguing that several “high-severity vulnerabilities” were invalid.

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OpenZeppelin said it had assessed at least four vulnerabilities that EVMbench classified as high risk, but that don’t actually work. However, EVMbench had been scoring AI agents correctly for finding these supposedly false vulnerabilities.

“These aren’t subjective severity disagreements; they are findings where the described exploit doesn’t work.”

Ultimately, OpenZeppelin reiterated that AI will have a significant impact on bolstering blockchain security, but stressed the importance of applying the tech and testing it properly to maximize its potential.

“The question isn’t whether AI will transform smart contract security — it will. The question is whether the data and benchmarks we use to build and evaluate these tools are held to the same standard as the contracts they’re meant to protect.”

Magazine: AI won’t make you rich, but crypto games might, Axie founder steps down: Web3 Gamer 

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