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Why Bitcoin Must Clear $68K to Avoid Another Big Leg Down

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Why Bitcoin Must Clear $68K to Avoid Another Big Leg Down

Bitcoin is still in a corrective phase after the sharp selloff, and the price is now trying to stabilize around $66,000. The bigger picture is simple, as momentum is bearish on the daily time frame, but short-term structure is tightening. So, the next breakout from consolidation likely decides whether this is a bottom or just a pause before another leg down.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC remains below the 100-day and the 200-day moving averages, indicating the overall bearish trend. The price is also trading inside a broader downward channel, and the breakdown from the prior support area around $75,000-$80,000 has turned that zone into a key supply region. As long as Bitcoin stays below the mid $70,000s, rallies can still be sold into, especially if they fail near the moving averages.

The near-term demand zone to watch sits around $60,000, where buyers previously stepped in and where the market is likely to defend again if volatility returns. If that floor breaks cleanly, the next major support area comes in around $50,000 to $53,000. Meanwhile, the RSI has recovered from the most oversold readings, but it is still not showing the kind of strength you usually see at the start of a new uptrend, so confirmation matters more than hope here.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is compressing into a symmetrical triangle after the dump, with lower highs capping the price while the lows are holding higher. This kind of structure often precedes a decisive move because liquidity builds on both sides. The upper trigger is near $68,000, and a clean break and hold above it can open a push toward $73,000, where the larger resistance zone begins.

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If the triangle breaks to the downside, the first test is typically the range low around $62,000, followed by the deeper daily demand zone around $60,000. The key detail is that the current consolidation is happening after a strong down move, so downside breaks can accelerate quickly if bids step away. Therefore, buyers will need a breakout that holds, not just a wick, because fake outs are common when the broader trend is still down.

Sentiment Analysis

The open interest chart shows a steep decline into the current period, dropping toward about $20.4B, while the price also fell sharply. That combination usually signals forced deleveraging, meaning liquidations and position closures rather than a calm, organic pullback. In practice, it often marks the point where the market flushes out excessive leverage, which can reduce immediate downside pressure.

The next clue is what happens if open interest starts rising again. If open interest rebuilds while the price holds above $62,500 and pushes above $68,000, it suggests traders are re-entering with confidence, which can support a continuation rally. However, if open interest climbs while the asset stays heavy and fails under $68,000, it can set up another liquidation wave, because fresh leverage tends to become fuel for the next squeeze down when the trend is still bearish.

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Crypto World

Ansem Says Ethereum Is in a Worse Spot Than 2023 as Thesis Weakens

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Ethereum Price Prediction

Crypto analyst Ansem argues that Ethereum (ETH) is in a “worse spot” in 2026 than it was in 2023, pointing to a thesis he says has been eroding for years.

His bearish take drew rebuttals from some members of the community. Meanwhile, on-chain activity and technical indicators elsewhere on the network flash bullish signals.

Ansem Lists Cracks in the ETH Thesis

Ansem argues that Solana (SOL) has dominated retail activity this cycle. Hyperliquid has taken the lead in perpetual futures trading, while rollups have failed to gain traction.

He also noted that Vitalik Buterin “publicly abandoned” the general-use rollup thesis. The ongoing Aave (AAVE) situation around the KelpDAO rsETH exploit, Ansem said, is a mark on  Ethereum’s core value proposition of “safety + security of defi & insto interest.

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“ETH thesis has been weakening consistently for years,” the analyst wrote. ETH in 2026 is in a worse spot than it was in 2023, amplified by AI doing extremely well & tech stocks being much more favorable investments with real revenues / emerging narratives / increasing momentum, ETH is a $300B asset with a ton of overhang from Tom Lee topblasting + complacent ETH holders sitting idle in defi protocols.”

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Technically, the analyst noted that ETH remains in a sustained downtrend after failing to break multi-year resistance. He projected that the second-largest cryptocurrency could slip to 2025 lows near $1,300 and to the bear-market lows from 2022.

“Tight invalidation 2377 assuming problems worsen if you want to play it loose assuming other risk assets continues doing well & drags it up probably somewhere around 2700/2800 invalidation fundamentals wise would want to see breakout activity from some new vertical,” the post read.

Ethereum Price Prediction
Ethereum Price Prediction. Source: X/Ansem

Community Members Push Back

The take triggered notable pushback. Ryan Berckmans accused Ansem of not understanding fundamentals. Leo Lanza went further, sharply dismissing the analyst’s bearish case on X.

Another user pointed to a 56% drop in the SOL/ETH pair this cycle.

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“Soleth is down 56% after being up 12x+ *this cycle* because one guy decided to buy 5% of the eth supply after it had underperformed all cycle. idk why you guys act like i dont also bearpost solana i havent posted anything bullish about sol in over a year,” Ansem replied.

Not everyone shares the bearish view on Ethereum. BeInCrypto recently highlighted that network activity remains strong, while technical indicators like the Rainbow Chart and MACD are also flashing bullish signals.

With macro and geopolitical uncertainty still in play, the question is whether ETH slides further this year or stages a renewed rally.

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The post Ansem Says Ethereum Is in a Worse Spot Than 2023 as Thesis Weakens appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

Total value locked on decentralized lending protocol Aave dropped by nearly $8 billion over the weekend after hackers behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit borrowed funds on Aave, leaving roughly $195 million in “bad debt” on the protocol and triggering withdrawals.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aave’s TVL fell from about $26.4 billion to $18.6 billion by Sunday, losing the top spot as the largest DeFi protocol. 

Aave v3’s lending pools for USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) are now at 100% utilization, meaning that more than $5.1 billion worth of stablecoins cannot be withdrawn until new liquidity arrives or borrows are repaid. 

$2,540 is available to be withdrawn from the $2.87 billion USDT pool on Aave v3 at the time of writing. Source: Aave

Aave’s TVL fall shows how rapidly risk from a single security incident can spread throughout the broader, interconnected DeFi lending market, potentially leading to a severe liquidity crisis.

The incident began on Saturday when hackers stole 116,500 Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (rsETH) tokens worth about $293 million from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge and used them as collateral on Aave v3 to borrow wrapped Ether (wETH).

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Crypto analytics platform Lookonchain said the move created about $195 million in “bad debt” on Aave, which contributed to the Aave (AAVE) token tanking nearly 20% from $112 on Saturday at 6:00 pm UTC to $89.5 about 25 hours later. 

Lookonchain noted that some of the largest crypto whales to withdraw funds from Aave were the MEXC crypto exchange and Abraxas Capital at $431 million and $392 million, respectively.

Source: Grvt

Several crypto networks and protocols tied to rsETH or the LayerZero bridge have paused use of the bridge until the problem is resolved, including DeFi platform Curve Finance, stablecoin issuer Ethena and BitGo’s Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC).

Aave has frozen several rsETH, wETH markets

Shortly after the Kelp DAO exploit, Aave said it froze the rsETH markets on both Aave v3 and v4 to prevent any suspicious borrowing and later stated that rsETH on Ethereum mainnet remains fully backed by underlying assets.

WETH reserves also remain frozen on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea, Aave said.

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This incident marks the first significant stress test of Aave’s “Umbrella” security model, which was introduced in June 2025 to provide automated protection against protocol bad debt while enabling users to earn rewards.

Related: Aave DAO backs V4 mainnet plan in near-unanimous vote

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada found that Aave avoided bad debt in its v3 market by using overcollateralization, automated liquidations and other strategies that shifted risk to borrowers.

In comments to Cointelegraph, Aave defended its liquidation-based model, framing it as a core safety mechanism that protects lenders while limiting downside for borrowers.

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It comes as Aave parted ways with its longest-standing DeFi risk service provider, Chaos Labs, on April 6, following disagreements over the direction of Aave v4 and budget constraints.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?