Bitcoin (BTC) lost its hold on the $80,000 level over the weekend, and data suggest that the cryptocurrency needs to trade above the $74,000-$75,000 range, as it has repeatedly served as key support over the last two years. 

Crypto analyst Ardi said the next retest of the $74,000-$75,000 range could become the most important support test of the current bear market.

The analyst pointed to the role that the price range played during the last two years. In 2024, Bitcoin struggled to break above the range during a seven-month-long consolidation. In Q1 2025, the same area held as support before BTC rallied toward its cycle highs at $126,000.

BTC/USD, one-day chart analysis by Ardi. Source: X

Bitcoin is now approaching this level after its 5.78% weekly correction to $77,900. Ardi said the zone carries added weight because several major price pivots formed at $74,000-$75,000 across multiple time frames.

Crypto trader Alex Wacy focused on the $70,000 level. Wacy said holding that area could support a move back toward $85,000-$90,000. Losing it could open the door to a larger decline toward the $50,000-$60,000 range.

Related: BTC price ‘bull trap’ at $76.5K? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin market signal weakens again

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said the Bitcoin bull-bear structure index turned bearish again after BTC failed to stay above $82,000 earlier this month.

It tracks six indicators linked to exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand, trader activity, exchange flows, and short-term price momentum. A positive reading indicates buyers are in control, while a negative reading points to growing seller pressure.

Bitcoin bull-bear structure index. Source: CryptoQuant

The bullish signal lasted less than three trading days. On May 6, the index briefly turned positive as Bitcoin climbed near $82,000. By May 17, the reading had dropped to -23.49, indicating that sellers quickly regained control.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data showed more Bitcoin moving onto exchanges from investors who bought BTC six to 12 months ago. The average buying price was around $110,851, meaning many are now sitting on large unrealized losses after the latest drop.

The share of older coins moving to exchanges also surged to 10.54%, far above its usual level below 1%, with market analyst Easy On Chain stating, 

“Historically, this reflects investors locking in major losses and exiting the market, creating severe spot-market selling pressure.”

Related: Saylor’s Strategy scoops $2B Bitcoin, holdings reach 843,738 BTC

Citi warned Monday that Bitcoin faces an outsized quantum computing threat, with up to 6.9 million BTC already vulnerable.

Citi analyst Alex Saunders warned in a May 18 digital asset research note that accelerating quantum computing advances are shortening the timeline for risks to Bitcoin and broader internet infrastructure.

The bank said Bitcoin is particularly exposed because its conservative governance structure makes protocol upgrades slow and difficult to coordinate.

The Citi Institute has been tracking quantum risk to financial systems throughout 2026, estimating that a quantum-enabled attack on a major US bank could put $2 to $3.3 trillion of GDP at risk, as reported by The Quantum Insider in February.

“While large-scale quantum attacks remain a medium-term concern, the pace of progress has shortened the horizon and warrants closer attention from investors,” Saunders wrote in the note.

Bitcoin’s governance is its quantum weakness

Citi identified vulnerabilities tied to public keys already exposed on-chain. Older Bitcoin addresses using pay-to-public-key outputs left public keys permanently visible, including wallets believed to belong to Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto. The bank estimates 6.5 to 6.9 million BTC hold already-exposed keys, worth roughly $450 billion at current prices.

The report flagged a “harvest now, decrypt later” risk, where attackers collect encrypted data today for future quantum-enabled decryption. Proof-of-stake networks such as Ethereum may be better positioned to respond because they upgrade protocols more frequently, Citi said.

However, the bank warned they present a larger attack surface. The crypto.news Bitcoin price page shows Bitcoin currently trading at around $76,900.

How far away is the actual threat?

The bank said it remains constructive on crypto’s long-term ability to adapt through post-quantum cryptography. Proposed Bitcoin upgrades including BIP-360 and BIP-361 are in development but require broad consensus among miners and node operators, a process that historically takes years.

Broader Bitcoin ecosystem context matters here: as crypto.news reported in its Q1 2026 mining sector coverage, the Bitcoin network is navigating simultaneously rising energy costs, the AI pivot among miners, and now growing institutional scrutiny of its long-term cryptographic resilience.

JPMorgan has separately noted that miners pivoting to AI face high capital needs and potential shareholder dilution, underlining that the broader Bitcoin infrastructure is undergoing structural stress from multiple directions at once.

HIVE Digital is pivoting from Bitcoin mining to a CAD 3.5b, 320 MW Toronto AI “super factory” hosting 100,000+ GPUs, sending its stock up over 35% on the news.

HIVE Digital Technologies, long known as a Bitcoin (BTC) mining company, has unveiled plans for a 320 MW AI infrastructure park in the Greater Toronto Area, a move that sent its shares up more than 35% at the open after the news broke on Monday, according to The Block. The company described the project as an AI “super factory” and said it aims to create one of Canada’s largest sovereign AI campuses at a time when demand for data center power and GPUs is exploding.

HIVE said the buildout will be led by its high‑performance computing subsidiary BUZZ, with total capital expenditure expected to reach roughly CAD 3.5 billion, or about $2.55 billion at current exchange rates. Once fully completed, the site is expected to support more than 100,000 GPUs across multiple large‑scale data halls dedicated to training and running AI models, putting the project in the same power class as some US hyperscale campuses.

The company is targeting the second half of 2027 for initial operations at the Toronto‑area AI park, suggesting a multi‑year construction and power‑procurement timeline that aligns with typical hyperscale data center projects. Management framed the site as “sovereign” AI infrastructure, signaling that HIVE wants to position the campus as a Canadian‑controlled alternative to US cloud and chip majors for governments, enterprises, and local AI startups.

HIVE did not disclose detailed financing plans in the initial announcement but indicated the CAD 3.5 billion budget includes land, power infrastructure, cooling, data center construction, and GPU hardware. Given the scale, the company is likely to lean on a mix of equity, debt, and potential partnerships with hardware vendors or cloud customers to lock in anchor tenants ahead of the 2027 launch.

From Bitcoin miner to AI infra player

The Toronto project marks the most aggressive step yet in HIVE’s ongoing shift away from pure Bitcoin mining toward AI and high‑performance computing infrastructure. In recent years, the firm has expanded GPU clusters and AI‑oriented data center operations in Paraguay and Sweden, effectively using its expertise in energy‑intensive mining to bootstrap a different kind of compute business.

That strategic pivot has taken place against a backdrop of rising competition and margin compression in Bitcoin mining, while GPU‑rich AI infrastructure has become one of the hottest capital‑markets stories of the cycle. By tying its future to a 320 MW “super factory” capable of hosting over 100,000 GPUs on Canadian soil, HIVE is betting that investors will reward it more as an AI data center operator than as a cyclical crypto miner — a bet Monday’s 35%+ share price pop suggests the market is, at least initially, willing to entertain.

SpaceX Bitcoin holdings stand at $637m, on-chain data shows, making it the fourth largest known corporate holder.

SpaceX holds 8,285 BTC worth approximately $637 million in Coinbase Prime custody, according to on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence as analyzed by Finbold on May 18.

The position has been unchanged since June 2022, when the company trimmed its holdings from a peak of roughly 28,000 coins over a three-week period, a reduction of approximately 70% from its peak.

The $637 million valuation places SpaceX as the fourth-largest known private corporate Bitcoin holder, trailing Block.one, Tether Holdings Limited, and Stone Ridge Holdings Group. Arkham data shows the company sitting on an unrealized profit of more than $360 million on the position at current prices.

SpaceX Bitcoin position to go public with IPO

SpaceX is targeting a June 12 Nasdaq debut under the ticker SPCX, with its public S-1 expected as early as May 20 and the roadshow kicking off the week of June 8. The company filed its confidential draft registration with the SEC on April 1, targeting a raise of approximately $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation.

Once listed, the Bitcoin position will appear in quarterly filings under the FASB fair-value accounting rules that took effect in late 2025, making it visible to all investors for the first time. The crypto.news Bitcoin price page tracks the asset anchoring that treasury position in real time.

Whether SpaceX characterises Bitcoin as a strategic reserve or a tradeable position in its S-1 language will signal how seriously the company views crypto as part of its long-term financial strategy. For a company preparing the largest IPO in history, the framing of a $637 million crypto holding carries material investor interest.

SpaceX held Bitcoin through a $5b loss

SpaceX generated $18.5 billion in revenue in 2025 but reported a loss of nearly $5 billion after absorbing costs from its February 2026 acquisition of Elon Musk’s AI venture xAI. The company made no moves to liquidate its Bitcoin position despite the balance-sheet pressure.

As crypto.news reported on American Bitcoin’s Q1 2026 results, publicly traded mining companies are similarly holding or expanding Bitcoin treasury positions even as they pivot infrastructure toward AI.

Corporate Bitcoin accumulation has accelerated broadly in 2026. When SpaceX lists publicly, it will bring a potential $1.75 trillion valuation into the corporate Bitcoin holder cohort, adding institutional weight to the asset class that crypto.news has tracked across its ongoing coverage of institutional Bitcoin positioning.

Bitcoin (BTC) gave up the $80,000 level over the weekend and now faces a historically significant battle around $74,000-$75,000. This zone has repeatedly served as a critical support floor over the past two years, and analysts say the next test could be pivotal for the ongoing bear market.

Analyst Ardi notes that the $74,000-$75,000 region has anchored BTC’s price action in multiple phases. In 2024, the zone helped cap a seven-month consolidation, and in early 2025 it provided support before Bitcoin ascended to cycle highs near $126,000. As BTC approaches this crucial band after posting a 5.78% weekly correction to roughly $77,900, the weight of the zone is reinforced by several major price pivots formed there across different timeframes.

Key takeaways

• BTC is testing a long-standing support band around $74k-$75k after dipping below $80k, a level that has repeatedly defined price stability in recent years.
• Analysts see the next retest of this zone as potentially decisive for the current bear market, given its historical role as a support anchor across multiple cycles.
• The Bitcoin market-signal framework known as the bull-bear structure index has shifted back to bearish territory after BTC failed to sustain above $82k, signaling renewed selling pressure.
• On-chain activity highlights a shift of long-term holders’ coins to exchanges, with a rising share of older BTC moving on-chain and toward selling, amplifying near-term downside risk.
• If BTC can hold the $70k-$75k neighborhood, traders see potential for a relief rally toward the mid-to-high $80k range; a break below the zone could widen the downside toward $50k-$60k.

Critical price zone under scrutiny

As BTC approaches the $74,000-$75,000 corridor, market observers emphasize the zone’s weight as a potential fulcrum for the bear market. Ardi explains that this area has repeatedly functioned as a technical anchor, shaping strategic decisions for traders looking for the next directional impulse. The recurrence of pivotal pivots near this level across multiple timeframes adds to the sense that a robust defense here could extend the downtrend, while a durable hold might set the stage for a fresh leg higher once demand returns.

Bitcoin’s recent price action—trading around $77,900 after a weekly decline—puts the market in a position where a decisive hold in the $74k-$75k zone could calm near-term downside risks and pave the way for new momentum if buyers reemerge. The narrative hinges on whether buyers can sustain a floor in this band or if sellers gain the upper hand and drive BTC into deeper correction territory.

Bearish signals strengthen as price stalls above $82k

Market signals tracking BTC’s structural balance offer a sobering read. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. notes that the Bitcoin bull-bear structure index turned bearish again after BTC failed to maintain a run above $82,000 earlier this month. The metric aggregates six indicators—spanning ETF demand proxies, trader activity, exchange flows, and short-term momentum—to gauge whether buyers or sellers currently control the market. A positive reading points to buyer dominance, while a negative one signals growing selling pressure.

The bullish tilt proved fleeting. The index turned positive for less than three trading days, around early May when BTC flirted with $82,000. By May 17, the reading had collapsed to -23.49, underscoring a swift reversal toward seller control. This shift aligns with a broader view that fading upside momentum could be accompanied by renewed selling pressure, particularly if price fails to sustain critical levels.

On-chain dynamics reinforce this sentiment. CryptoQuant data show more BTC flowing onto exchanges from investors who bought BTC six to twelve months ago, a cohort that typically sits on significant unrealized losses when prices retreat. The analysis notes the average cost basis among this cohort sits around $110,851, suggesting many holders are vulnerable to realizing losses as prices pull back.

Historically, this reflects investors locking in major losses and exiting the market, creating severe spot-market selling pressure.

Additionally, the share of older coins moving to exchanges spiked to about 10.54%, far above the usual sub-1% threshold. Easy On Chain highlighted this pattern as a potential sign that longer-held positions are being liquidated, adding to near-term selling pressure and challenging the odds of a rapid rebound until demand returns.

For context, recent coverage around Bitcoin’s price action has also looked at potential near-term traps and the broader supply/demand balance. A linked analysis from Cointelegraph discussed a bullish trap around the mid-$70k range, underscoring how fragile the market’s immediate upside can be when tested at key levels.

What happens next: scanning the two likely paths

Traders are watching the $70,000 level as a more decisive floor. Alex Wacy, another market observer cited in the coverage, framed the possible outcomes as a bifurcation: holding the $70k zone could underpin a return to the $85,000–$90,000 range, rekindling bullish expectations if demand reasserts itself. Conversely, losing the $70k area—and notably breaking below the $74k-$75k support band—could open a path toward deeper losses, potentially targeting the $50,000–$60,000 region if the selling pressure persists and momentum fails to recover.

These scenarios reflect a market navigating a delicate balance between macro uncertainty, fading upside momentum, and shifting on-chain behavior. If buyers manage to stablize above the pivotal zone, workflow from traders, funds, and miners could align toward a renewed attempt at higher highs, possibly drawing in fresh participation and forcing a reappraisal of risk in a market that has struggled to sustain meaningful rallies since mid-2024.

The broader context remains important. The interaction between price action, on-chain movements, and market sentiment indicators suggests a market that could see either a short-lived relief rally or a renewed leg lower depending on whether buyers respond decisively around the $74k-$75k zone. As always, traders will be parsing every retail and institutional signal, while analysts emphasize that a broad macro backdrop—ranging from central bank policies to global risk appetite—will continue to shape BTC’s trajectory.

Readers should monitor the next price action near the $74k-$75k support and the $82k threshold for momentum. The next few weeks could reveal whether the bear market finds a durable floor or slides further as longer-term holders reassess risk and exit positions into strength or weakness in the spot market. For ongoing analysis and updates, keep an eye on market commentary that connects price levels with on-chain signals and fund flows, as these elements collectively illuminate the risk-reward landscape for Bitcoin in the near term.

Related reading: BTC price ‘bull trap’ at $76.5K? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

ETH RSI, Source: CryptoWaves