Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin BTC$77,703.13, said Thursday on X that the crypto winter is over as bitcoin held above $78,000, a price level first reached early on April 22, according to CoinDesk data.

In a Game of Thrones-style image, dressed in a fur coat, a garment not particularly suited for when the winter is over, and mounted on a horse, Saylor, whose firm recently added 13,927 bitcoin, bringing its treasury’s total BTC holdings to 780,897, said “Winter’s over”, a statement not all crypto analysts agree with.

“Even if the winter is over for bitcoin, which I don’t agree with, it is still very cold for altcoins,” said Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and AdLunam co-founder.

For Mati Greenspan, a former senior market analyst at eToro and founder of Quantum Economics, what bitcoin and the broader crypto market have experienced since the Oct. 10 “flash crash”, which triggered roughly $19 billion in forced liquidations within 24 hours, does not even qualify as a crypto winter.

“I’m not sure I would classify what we just saw as a crypto winter exactly,” Greenspan said, it was “more of a large pullback within a broader bull market.”

Greenspan agrees, however, with what Saylor appears to be suggesting: Bitcoin has reached its bottom and is likely to head higher from here. “Yes, I think it is very likely that we have seen the bottom,” he said.

Greenspan and other experts say that Saylor’s comments, along with his firm’s ongoing bitcoin purchases, suggest a transition into a more permanent institutional bitcoin era. A new cycle characterized by market dominance of corporate bitcoin treasuries and a shift in institutional sentiment.

Nation-state adoption

Even so, institutional adoption is just one piece of the puzzle.

“Yes, increased institutional adoption will kick off this next leg, but what Saylor is missing is the nation-state adoption, which is undoubtedly right around the corner,” Greenspan said.

The crypto founder and market analyst said that, to date, the crypto industry has experienced three distinct adoption cycles.

The first, he said, was driven by early adopters in 2013. And then came the “mass retail awakening of 2017,” and, now, institutional adoption in 2021.

“The fourth and final major driver is nation-state adoption, which I believe will happen very soon, especially with the U.S. abruptly flipping course during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term,” Greenspan said.

“Imagine central banks adding bitcoin to their balance sheets to maintain price stability, similar to how they’ve added gold in the past,” he added.

To Greenspan’s point, nation-state adoption is already moving beyond theory and onto government balance sheets. Under Trump, for example, the U.S. plans for a strategic bitcoin reserve, though it is neither formalized nor operational; the government already holds roughly 300,000 BTC. El Salvador continues its daily purchase program toward a 7,500 BTC treasury, while China and the U.K. hold roughly 190,000 BTC and 61,000 BTC, respectively. Activity is also emerging at the sub-sovereign level, with entities such as Wisconsin and New Jersey introducing bitcoin exposure within public pension allocations.

Key Takeaways

• Wedbush initiated Oracle with an Outperform rating Friday, sending shares up 2% in premarket activity
• The firm’s $225 price target contrasts with Oracle’s current trading level near $176
• Analyst argues Wall Street misunderstands Oracle’s capital expenditure as primarily contract-backed AI spending
• The company’s multi-cloud database business exploded 531% annually in its third fiscal quarter of 2026
• Analyst consensus stands at Strong Buy with a $244.89 average price objective

Shares of Oracle experienced a 2% lift in Friday’s pre-market session following Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives’ initiation of coverage with an Outperform designation and $225 price objective.

Oracle Corporation, ORCL

Ives has established himself as a closely-watched voice in technology sector analysis, and his positioning on Oracle is generating renewed investor interest in a name that’s declined 37.4% across the last half-year.

Oracle is currently changing hands around $176.28. The Wedbush projection suggests approximately 28% appreciation potential from present levels. Wall Street’s collective view skews even more optimistic, with the consensus target landing at $244.89.

The fundamental thesis behind Wedbush’s stance is straightforward: investors are misjudging Oracle’s true position.

According to Ives, while Oracle’s aggressive infrastructure investments appear risky at first glance, the substantial majority connects directly to secured AI agreements — indicating demand-backed deployment rather than speculative buildout.

OCI Emerges as Strategic Differentiator

Central to the optimistic outlook is Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, commonly known as OCI. Wedbush highlights that OCI’s streamlined network architecture provides meaningful advantages for artificial intelligence applications, enabling superior speed and reduced latency compared to legacy cloud platforms.

This architectural advantage becomes critically important during large-scale AI model training, where computational efficiency and throughput directly influence both economics and results.

Oracle is simultaneously advancing its “AI for Data” initiative, centered on the Oracle AI Database 26ai offering. The strategy focuses on enabling enterprises to integrate AI capabilities directly with their proprietary data repositories — a pragmatic application that could accelerate widespread enterprise adoption.

Multi-Cloud Strategy Delivers Explosive Results

The multi-cloud performance metrics are particularly striking. Oracle reported 531% year-over-year expansion in multi-cloud database revenue during its fiscal 2026 third quarter.

This remarkable growth stems from Oracle’s strategy of deploying its database solutions within competing cloud environments — including Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud. Instead of competing head-to-head, Oracle is positioning itself as critical infrastructure within rival platforms.

The company recently unveiled an enhanced collaboration with Google Cloud, introducing the Oracle AI Database Agent for Gemini Enterprise. This integration enables users to interact with Oracle databases through conversational language interfaces.

A parallel AWS initiative is also underway, focused on strengthening inter-cloud connectivity capabilities.

These strategic alliances provide context for the extraordinary multi-cloud revenue acceleration. Oracle is establishing itself as essential infrastructure that even competitors rely upon.

Wedbush’s perspective positions Oracle as evolving beyond its legacy database company identity toward becoming a fundamental component of AI infrastructure. Ives contends the current stock valuation hasn’t caught up with this transformation.

Across the trailing twelve-month period, Oracle produced $64.1 billion in revenue, representing 14.9% growth. The enterprise currently maintains a market capitalization approaching $507 billion.

The broader analyst community shares this constructive perspective. Oracle carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, derived from 27 Buy recommendations and six Hold ratings issued during the most recent three-month period.

The $244.89 average analyst price target indicates potential appreciation of approximately 39% from current trading levels.

Wisconsin has escalated its challenge against prediction market platforms, widening a legal fight already taking shape across several U.S. states over how these products should be classified.

Fresh complaints filed in Dane County name Crypto.com and its derivatives arm, Polymarket, and Kalshi, alongside distribution partners Robinhood and Coinbase. Prosecutors argue the platforms enable event-based wagering for residents, including contracts tied to sports outcomes.

At the core of the filings sits a simple claim. Users pay to take positions on real-world events and receive fixed payouts if correct. 

Wisconsin says that the structure fits its legal definition of a bet. Contracts linked to NCAA tournament games are cited as one example, where positions trade at probability-based prices and settle at $1 or $0 depending on the result.

Marketing language has been pulled into the case as supporting evidence. Kalshi’s promotional material described it as “The First Nationwide Legal Sports Betting Platform,” while Polymarket has referred to itself as a place where users can bet on future events. 

Attorney General Josh Kaul addressed that framing directly, stating, “Thinly disguising unlawful conduct doesn’t make it lawful.”

Meanwhile, these platforms collect transaction fees on each contract, a structure prosecutors compare to a casino taking a cut from wagers placed on its floor.

Federal and state fight over control deepens

Wisconsin’s move follows a similar path taken earlier by New York. As previously reported by crypto.news, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed lawsuits against Coinbase Financial Markets and Gemini Titan, accusing both of operating unlicensed prediction markets. 

Her office argued that event-based contracts tied to sports and elections were offered without approval from the New York State Gaming Commission and were accessible to users below the legal betting age of 21.

“Gambling by another name is still gambling, and it is not exempt from regulation under our state laws and Constitution,” James added. 

Court filings in that case sought at least $2.2B from Coinbase and $1.2B from Gemini, increasing financial pressure alongside regulatory scrutiny.

Industry participants continue to push back by pointing to federal oversight. Coinbase has argued that such disputes belong in federal court. 

Platforms operating through Kalshi maintain that event contracts qualify as swaps under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not state gambling regulators.

A recent ruling from the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi, treating the regulator’s decision not to block the contracts as effectively settling the question of jurisdiction.

Even so, states continue to press their own interpretations. Authorities in Nevada have described similar contracts as indistinguishable from gambling, while New York has maintained that each contract represents a bet.

With multiple states building cases on similar grounds, the dispute is moving toward a broader constitutional question. A final determination from the Supreme Court of the United States could decide whether prediction markets fall under a single federal framework or remain subject to state gambling laws.

Key takeaways

• ADA is trading below key resistance zones, signaling a bearish near-term bias and limiting recovery attempts.
• Whales are reducing their exposure to ADA, which could lead to further price decline. 

Cardano (ADA) continues to trade under pressure, hovering below $0.250 on Friday as price action remains subdued beneath key resistance zones. 

On-chain data from Santiment indicates that certain whale wallets have begun reducing their holdings, adding to selling pressure.

Whales reduce exposure amid shifting accumulation trends

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data points to a weakening outlook for Cardano as large-wallet investors adjust their positions. Whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA and 1 million–10 million ADA have collectively offloaded around 80 million tokens since April 19.

Furthermore, wallets in the 10 million–100 million ADA range have accumulated approximately 60 million ADA over the same period. 

This divergence suggests a rotation in holdings: mid-sized whales are selling, while larger entities are absorbing supply. Such behavior often reflects distribution at elevated levels, increasing short-term downside risk.

Cardano’s derivatives data present a mixed outlook with a slight bearish tilt. CoinGlass data shows open interest falling to $444 million on Friday, down from $490 million on April 18. This indicates declining trader participation and weakening speculative demand.

Additionally, ADA’s long-to-short ratio stands at 0.80, its lowest level in over a month. A ratio below 1 indicates bearish positioning, with more traders expecting price declines.

Despite that, the funding rate paints a bullish narrative. The OI-weighted funding rate turned positive on Thursday and currently sits at 0.0076%, suggesting that long positions are paying shorts—often interpreted as a mild bullish signal.

Cardano price outlook: bears continue to halt recovery

The ADA/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Cardano remains technically weak, trading below $0.250. 

The coin is facing immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA of $0.258, followed by $0.269 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and the 100-day EMA at $0.294.

Momentum indicators remain neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 51, while the MACD is flat just above zero, indicating a lack of strong directional conviction.

If the bearish trend persists, immediate support is found at $0.245. A breakdown below this level could expose ADA to further losses toward $0.220, a key prior-cycle support zone.

However, if the bulls regain control and close above the $0.258 resistance, it would be the first sign of recovery strength, potentially opening the path toward $0.269 and higher resistance levels near $0.294 and $0.299. 

An extended bullish reversal would require a move above $0.323 and eventually toward the 200-day EMA near $0.383.

Fold Holdings has rolled out a Bitcoin-based bonus program for employees, expanding its push to bring BTC into everyday workplace compensation.

Fold said the new offering, launched under its enterprise arm Fold Business, allows companies to distribute recurring bonuses in Bitcoin without handling custody or compliance requirements themselves.

“We launched our Bitcoin Bonus Program because we saw a gap that no one was filling,” said Fold co-founder and CEO Will Reeves. 

“An employer-grade bonus vehicle that’s differentiated enough to matter, accessible enough for every employee, and operationally simple enough that HR and Finance don’t need to become Bitcoin experts to run it. We’ve created a recruiting story that didn’t exist before.”

Fold handles conversion from dollars into Bitcoin and manages distribution, allowing employers to set bonus structures in fiat terms while offering exposure to BTC.

Bitcoin bonuses move beyond pilot stage

Early adoption has already come from Steak ‘n Shake, which introduced the program across its workforce after first announcing the initiative in January and putting it into effect on March 1. More than 10,000 hourly workers across the U.S. are now eligible, with the company contributing $0.21 per hour worked into a Bitcoin bonus that fully vests after two years.

Simple Mining has also adopted the program for salaried staff, allocating 1% of employee pay into Bitcoin that is redeemable at year’s end. 

According to the company’s head of revenue, Matt Garland, the option gives employees access to a bonus that “grows with time” and gives workers more reason to stay.

Fold’s latest move builds on its earlier collaboration with Steak ‘n Shake, which introduced Bitcoin into its customer experience in late 2025. At the time, the chain offered a $5 BTC reward with select meals across nearly 400 locations, requiring customers to upload receipts and redeem rewards through the Fold app.

“Bitcoin goes mainstream when it starts showing up in everyday life,” Reeves said during that rollout. 

“For many people, this will be the first time they ever own bitcoin, and it will come from something as ordinary as grabbing a burger.”

Moving from consumer rewards to payroll-linked incentives, the company is extending the same approach into workplace finance. Plans for the Fold Business platform include payroll services, corporate Bitcoin treasury tools, and payment cards aimed at enterprise use.

India is turning to welfare payments to drive adoption of its central bank digital currency as it prepares to put the CBDC in the spotlight at a summit of BRICS nations later this year.

The Reserve Bank of India is running about 10 pilot programs routing portions of the country’s roughly $80 billion welfare system through the e-rupee, Reuters reported Thursday. The effort aims to reduce leakage and corruption in subsidy programs while giving the CBDC a clearer use case after a slow rollout.

In Maharashtra’s Phulenagar village, farmers are receiving programmable subsidies covering up to 80% of drip-irrigation costs, spendable only at approved vendors. A separate pilot in Gujarat aims to onboard all 7.5 million households eligible for subsidized food by June, effectively using targeted transfers to scale adoption.

The push underscores a core challenge for CBDCs globally: usage. The e-rupee has grown to about 10 million users from roughly 7 million earlier this year, but cumulative transactions since its December 2022 introduction total just $3.6 billion. That remains small compared with India’s Unified Payments Interface, which processes about $300 billion each month.

Early adoption efforts have at times been engineered. CoinDesk reported in 2024 that several major banks, including HDFC, Kotak Mahindra and Axis Bank, credited employee salaries into CBDC wallets to help the system surpass 1 million daily transactions in December 2023, a milestone that did not persist.

India’s domestic experimentation comes as policymakers consider a larger geopolitical role for the technology. The Reserve Bank of India has urged the government to advance a proposal for linking CBDCs across the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa at the bloc’s 2026 summit, aiming to streamline cross-border trade and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.

That ambition carries political risk. President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs on BRICS countries pursuing alternatives to the dollar and has already imposed duties on Indian imports tied in part to its purchases of Russian crude, raising the stakes for any coordinated monetary effort.

UPDATE (April 24, 90:27 UTC): Rewrites headline to explain CBDC acronym.