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Will crypto market rally as ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran intensify?

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Hegseth Fires Army Chief of Staff After Political Promotions

The United States, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are weighing terms for a temporary ceasefire that could extend into a permanent resolution, according to U.S., Israeli, and regional sources familiar with the discussions.

Summary

  • U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a two-phase ceasefire plan, though chances of a near-term deal remain limited.
  • Pakistan has proposed an “Islamabad Accord” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and prevent further escalation.

An Axios report said prospects for a partial deal within the next 48 hours remain limited. Still, officials described the effort as the final opportunity to avoid a sharp escalation that could involve strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure and retaliatory attacks on energy and water facilities across Gulf states.

Separately, a source familiar with the negotiations said both Washington and Tehran have received a proposal that could halt hostilities as early as Monday while reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The plan, drafted by Pakistan and shared overnight, outlines a two-step process beginning with an immediate ceasefire followed by negotiations toward a comprehensive settlement.

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“All elements need to be agreed today,” the source said, noting that the initial understanding would take the form of a memorandum of understanding finalised electronically through Pakistan, which has emerged as the sole communication channel.

Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, has been in continuous contact “all night long” with JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the source added.

Under the framework, a ceasefire would take effect immediately and allow shipping to resume through the strait, with a 15 to 20-day window to finalise a broader agreement. The proposal, informally referred to as the “Islamabad Accord,” also envisions a regional framework governing the waterway, with final in-person talks expected in Islamabad.

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The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed global oil prices higher.

Donald Trump has repeatedly issued deadlines for Iran to reopen the passage or face military action targeting its energy infrastructure. In a recent Truth Social post, he extended the deadline to Tuesday and warned Iran would be “living in hell” if it failed to comply.

Despite mounting diplomatic pressure, Tehran has yet to signal acceptance of the proposed ceasefire. Iranian officials have said any agreement must include guarantees against future attacks by the U.S. and Israel. They also confirmed receiving messages from mediators, including Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt, supporting a temporary 45-day truce to allow further negotiations.

The draft agreement is expected to include commitments from Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. However, officials said no formal commitment has been secured so far.

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Iran’s leadership has maintained a defiant stance, warning it would respond “in kind” to any attack on its infrastructure, while also considering measures such as transit tolls before reopening the strait.

How will the crypto market react to potential de-escalation?

Although no agreement has been finalised at press time, risk assets have started to recover. The total crypto market cap has risen around 3.4% to $2.47 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) attempting to reclaim the $70,000 level. Ethereum (ETH), XRP (XRP), and other major crypto tokens have posted gains in the 3% to 6% range.

The move suggests traders may already be positioning for a potential de-escalation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which could stabilise energy markets and ease inflation pressures.

Traditional markets, however, presented a mixed picture. Asian equities were mostly lower, with the Nikkei 225 standing out as an exception, while gold and silver traded in a narrow range as investors balanced uncertainty with selective risk exposure.

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A confirmed ceasefire could support both crypto and global equities by easing oil prices and improving expectations for monetary policy. Lower energy costs tend to reduce inflation pressures, which could increase the likelihood of a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve.

Failure to reach an agreement carries the opposite risk. An escalation involving direct strikes on Iranian infrastructure and retaliation across the region could trigger a sharp shift toward safe-haven assets, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies as capital moves into the dollar and traditional defensive plays.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Crypto World

The Future Of Institutional Crypto Runs Through Prime Brokerages

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The Future Of Institutional Crypto Runs Through Prime Brokerages

Opinion by: Dominic Lohberger, chief product officer at Sygnum.

Counterparty risk in crypto markets has always moved in cycles. Exchanges default or get hacked. Standards tighten for a while. Then, complacency quietly returns as losses are forgotten. 

What is happening this time is different. 

Leading traditional finance players entering crypto must adopt practices from established financial markets. For the first time, the infrastructure exists to enable them to do so. They can mirror assets held with regulated custodians onto trading venues without ever depositing on-exchange. 

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This is a lasting change in how serious money actually moves through digital assets.

The separation of powers

Consider the mergers and acquisitions deal flow. Ripple deployed $1.25 billion to acquire Hidden Road. Hidden Road is a global multi-asset prime broker. This was the largest acquisition in crypto history. It signalled that institutional trading infrastructure is where value will concentrate. 

Standard Chartered is building a crypto prime brokerage under its venture arm. These are infrastructure bets by firms that see where the market is heading.

For most of crypto’s history, exchanges have played every role at once. From trading venues, custodians and clearing houses, exchanges played them all. That conflation of roles was a necessity in Bitcoin’s earliest days. It was never going to survive institutional adoption at scale. The FTX collapse made that risk glaring, and the $1.4 billion Bybit hack reinforced it. The broader patterns of 2025 showed where counterparty exposure became a first-order operational risk. That’s where the separation of custody from execution became a baseline institutional requirement.

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In traditional finance, this separation of powers is a bedrock principle. Crypto is finally catching up. A growing number of regulated off-exchange custody solutions now make this possible in practice. They allow institutions to hold assets with a custodian while trading on exchanges, with balances mirrored and settlement automated. Capital efficiency and security no longer have to be traded off against each other. Most market makers, hedge funds and OTC desks use some form of off-exchange custody. What was once considered a cost has become a basic pillar of risk management.

Two models, with different trade-offs

The market now offers two distinct approaches to removing exchange counterparty risk, and they solve different problems.

Off-exchange custody, sometimes called tri-party arrangements, allows traders to hold assets with a third-party custodian while receiving a mirrored balance on the exchange. If the custodian holds those assets segregated and off-balance-sheet, counterparty risk is eliminated. These setups tend to be cost-efficient because the custodian does not need to deploy its own balance sheet.

Prime brokerage is operationally richer. A prime broker acts as an intermediary and offers unified onboarding across exchanges, cross-venue net settlement and leverage. These are critical for market makers running strategies across dozens of venues. That active role means counterparty risk shifts from the exchange to the prime broker. In traditional finance, that risk is backstopped by investment banks with massive balance sheets. In crypto, the largest prime brokers are growing but still carry comparatively modest balance sheets. They’re capable and well-connected, but not yet at the scale of globally systematically relevant investment banks. Some institutional clients are comfortable with that trade-off. 

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The collateral economics that changed the conversation

The part of this shift that deserves equal attention is how collateral now works. When a custodian is a bank, it can accept traditional financial instruments as collateral, and that changes the economics. An institutional client holding short-dated US Treasurys can pledge them as collateral, mirrored onto an exchange at full loan-to-value. The T-bills never leave the custodian. The custody fees are a mere fraction of the yield this provides. The client earns a net positive return on collateral that protects them from exchange default.

Related: BitGo launches portfolio-based crypto lending platform for institutions

The vast majority of collateral deployed in bank-grade off-exchange custody structures today is in T-bills. When counterparty protection generates yield instead of costing money, the adoption question flips from “should we de-risk?” to “why are we leaving yield on the table?” The exception is strategies like the basis trade, where the client must pledge the underlying asset itself. Even there, holding crypto with an independent custodian reduces the risk surface.

What comes next

The eligible collateral story is expanding fast. Stablecoins are already accepted across multiple off-exchange setups. Tokenized money market funds that accrue yield continuously in real-time are next. The direction is toward multi-asset collateral frameworks that allow institutions to shift margin between venues and ensure security. In crypto, that reallocation can happen in near real-time around the clock.

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In the months ahead, more global systemically important banks will enter off-exchange custody. This will rapidly widen the range of accepted collateral. As both models mature, custodians may add more operational tooling. Prime brokers will strengthen their custody frameworks. This will continue until the distinction matters less than the outcome. That outcome is institutional-grade risk management.

The crypto industry spent the better part of a decade debating whether institutions would arrive. They have, and they are not adapting to crypto’s infrastructure. Crypto’s infrastructure is adapting to them. The firms that recognise this shift and build accordingly will define the next era of digital asset markets. The ones that don’t will be left managing yesterday’s risk with yesterday’s tools.

Opinion by: Dominic Lohberger, chief product officer at Sygnum.