The macroeconomic game is changing fast.
With tariff talks heating up and political divides growing sharper, many are trying to forecast what happens if the U.S. economy turns rough — or roars ahead. And of course, what does this all mean for Bitcoin?
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In a recent discussion, Anthony Pompliano dives into this complex narrative and breaks down both the worst-case and best-case scenarios — with Bitcoin sitting squarely at the center of the storm.
Those opposed to tariffs often paint a bleak picture. They liken the U.S. economy to a massive ship: once steered toward danger, it’s nearly impossible to redirect.
That’s the fear — tariffs cause economic isolation, consumer pain, and global pushback.
So, what happens to Bitcoin if that worst-case scenario plays out?
Pompliano argues we’re not heading for disaster — instead, we’re building a fort around the ship.
Tariffs, in his view, are less about confrontation and more about protection: safeguarding American companies, workers, and industries, just like Canada, Mexico, or China do for theirs.
And for Bitcoin? Even in a downturn, it holds a unique strength — the unwavering conviction of long-term holders.
Bitcoin isn’t immune to macro risk. It tends to respond sharply to stock market corrections — but with nuance. For example:
- A 10% drop in the S&P 500? Historically, that could mean a 30% slide in Bitcoin.
- A 20% drop in stocks — classic recession territory — could push Bitcoin lower again.
But even if that second 30% happens, Pompliano notes, Bitcoin would still hover around $50K — a level that’s increasingly supported by holders who refuse to sell, no matter the headlines.
