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Will the crypto market recover as the sell-off intensifies?

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Will the crypto market recover as the sell-off intensifies?

The crypto market crash accelerated on Saturday as the futures open interest dipped and liquidations soared to over $1.6 billion, the highest level in weeks. This article explores whether the crypto industry will recover as the sell-off intensifies.

Summary

  • The crypto market crash intensified on Saturday.
  • The drop continued as liquidations jumped to over $1.6 trillion.
  • The crash will likely continue and then recover later this year.

Why the crypto market crash is happening

The crypto market crash is being triggered by a few factors. One of the most notable ones is the fact that the odds that Donald Trump will attack Iran soon continued rising on Polymarket. These odds have now jumped to over 80%, with his armada nearing Iran.

Bitcoin (BTC) and other altcoins are dropping because such an attack will lead to higher oil prices and volatility in the financial market. This fear is notable now that Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset have continued falling.

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The crypto crash is also happening as memories of the October 10 liquidation event remain. That event happened after Trump warned of potential tariffs against China. Since then, leverage in the crypto industry has largely disappeared, with the futures open interest moving from $255 billion to $113 billion. 

The other reasons for the ongoing crypto crash is that Trump appointed Kevin Warsh, an inflation hawk as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Market participants were expecting BlackRock’s Rick Rieder to be mentioned.

Will the crypto market recover?

The question among investors is whether the crypto market will recover in the near term. Tom Lee, the popular analyst and BitMine Chairman, believes that the ongoing crypto crash will end soon. He noted that historically, Bitcoin always emerges from major dives. 

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For example, Bitcoin dropped by over 30% between its highest point in March and its lowest point in August. It then rebounded and moved to a record high in November. It also plunged below $16,000 in December 2022 and then rebounded.

There are some potential catalysts for the crypto market to recover eventually. For example, the US dollar index continues falling, which often leads to more demand for risky assets. Also, the Federal Reserve will likely resume cutting interest rates soon.

Additionally, there are signs that Bitcoin and top altcoins have become bargains as their MVRV indicators have slumped. 

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the crypto crash continues and then rebounds later this year.

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Crypto World

GAS Tanks 90% After AI Dev ‘Steps Back’

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GAS Tanks 90% After AI Dev ‘Steps Back’


The Gas Town token has plunged to a $1.1 million valuation just four days after peaking above $60 million.

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Most Crypto Holders Want to Pay with Bitcoin but Rarely Do, Survey Show

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Most Crypto Holders Want to Pay with Bitcoin but Rarely Do, Survey Show


But most say limited merchant acceptance and high fees stop them from spending crypto.

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Classic Chart Pattern Signals ETH Could Slip Below $2K

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Classic Chart Pattern Signals ETH Could Slip Below $2K

The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), risks sliding below $2,000 in February as a classic bearish setup plays out.

Key takeaways:

  • ETH breakdown keeps $1,665 downside target in focus.

  • MVRV bands also point to price sliding toward $1,725 or lower before a potential bottom.

ETH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

ETH risks declining 25% in February

As of Wednesday, ETH had entered the breakdown stage of its prevailing inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H) pattern. This could extend a downtrend that has already erased about 60% from its August 2025 peak.

An IC&H pattern forms when price forms a rounded top and then drifts higher in a small recovery channel. It typically resolves when the price breaks below the neckline support, often falling by as much as the cup’s maximum height.

Ether broke below the inverse cup-and-handle neckline near $2,960 in January. It later rebounded to retest that level as resistance, a common post-breakdown move, only to resume its decline.

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Ether inverse cup-and-handle. Source: TradingView

ETH’s rebound also stalled below the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) EMAs, which acted as overhead resistance.

These confluence indicators raised ETH’s odds of declining toward the IC&H breakdown target at around $1,665, down 25%, in February or by early March.

Historically, the inverse cup-and-handle hits its projected downside target with an 82% success rate, according to a study by Chartswatcher.

From a macro perspective, Ethereum’s downside risk is increasing as traders cut back on crypto bets, worried the market could slip into a broader 2026 downturn similar to past “four-year cycle” pullbacks.

Fears of an “AI bubble” popping are also forcing traders to avoid riskier bets such as crypto.

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Ethereum’s MVRV bands hint at $1,725 target

Ethereum’s technical downside target sat just below the lowest boundary of its MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands, currently at $1,725.

These bands are onchain price zones that show when ETH is trading below or above the average price at which traders last moved their coins.

Ethereum MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

Historically, ETH price plunged near or even below the lowest MVRV band before bottoming out.

That includes the April 2025 bounce, when the ETH price rose 90% a month after testing the lowest MVRV deviation band around $1,390. A similar rebound occurred in June 2018.

Related: ETH funding rate turns negative, but US macro conditions mute buy signal

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Therefore, Ether may decline toward $1,725 or below in February, which lines up with the IC&H downside target.