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Will XRP price break from its descending wedge

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Will XRP price break from its descending wedge at $1.31 as bearish momentum approaches exhaustion? - 1

XRP is compressing into the apex of a descending wedge at $1.3157 after months of lower highs and lower lows, with the 4H MACD signal line just crossing into positive territory for the first time since February — a sign that bearish momentum may be approaching exhaustion ahead of what could be the pattern’s most consequential candle close.

Summary

  • XRP is trading at $1.3157, pressing against the apex of a descending wedge pattern visible on both the daily and 4H charts, with the daily Supertrend bearish at $1.4894.
  • The daily MACD histogram stands at -0.0222, while on the 4H chart the signal line has just crossed marginally into positive territory, signalling that bearish momentum is approaching exhaustion ahead of the wedge resolution.
  • A confirmed daily close above $1.47 targets $1.50 and a potential challenge of $1.60, while a break below $1.27 risks an acceleration toward $1.14.

XRP (XRP) is trading at $1.3157 on April 3, 2026, down 0.33% on the day and compressing near the apex of a descending wedge pattern that has formed across both the daily and 4H timeframes since February. The Supertrend indicator on the daily chart sits at $1.4894, in red above price, confirming the prevailing bearish regime. Yet the formation itself is a structure that technical analysts typically associate with bullish reversal potential when it emerges at the end of a prolonged downtrend, provided the lower trendline holds.

On the daily chart, two converging trendlines are clearly visible: a descending upper resistance line and a slightly rising lower support line. Price at $1.3157 is nearing the apex, with the most recent daily low printed at $1.3033. The daily MACD shows a histogram of -0.0222, with the MACD line at -0.0287 below the signal at -0.0065. The reading remains bearish, but the histogram has been contracting, a sign that selling pressure is gradually fading.

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Will XRP price break from its descending wedge at $1.31 as bearish momentum approaches exhaustion? - 1

On the 4H chart, the same wedge structure is intact. The upper descending trendline aligns with the 4H Supertrend at $1.3586, and the lower rising trendline has provided support on each test since early February. Critically, the 4H signal line has crossed marginally into positive territory at 0.0002, while the MACD line at -0.0069 is approaching zero from below. A full bullish MACD crossover has not yet occurred, but the convergence at near-zero is an early signal of bearish exhaustion.

Key Levels, Price Targets, and Invalidation

Bull case: a daily close above the descending wedge resistance near $1.47 would confirm the breakout, initially targeting $1.4894, the Supertrend level, then $1.50. Above that, $1.60 is the key structural zone where the broader descending channel from July 2025 would be meaningfully challenged. Technical analyst Ali Martinez noted on X (formerly Twitter) that XRP “could offer a short-term buying opportunity” within its multi-year ascending triangle structure at current levels, though he also identified a potential further decline of approximately 30% before a sustained long-term recovery becomes likely.

Bear case: a daily close below $1.27 would break the wedge support and expose XRP to $1.14, the conservative channel breakdown target. A dense supply cluster of approximately 19.6 million XRP is concentrated between $1.27 and $1.28, per Coinglass cost-basis data, making this the most critical demand zone to defend.

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Invalidation of the bull case: a daily close below $1.27. Invalidation of the bear case: a daily close above $1.47.

On-Chain and Derivatives Context

U.S. spot XRP ETF monthly inflows turned negative in March 2026 for the first time since the products launched in November 2025, according to SoSoValue data, removing a structural buy-side catalyst that had underpinned price through Q1. XRP open interest across all exchanges now sits near $2.45 billion, down approximately 73% from the September 2025 peak, as detailed in prior crypto.news coverage.

Funding rates have shifted to a positive 0.008%, suggesting fresh long positions are entering near current levels. However, the six-to-twelve month holder cohort has begun trimming positions since March 27, reducing a layer of structural support precisely as the wedge reaches its apex.

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As crypto.news has covered, recovery attempts have repeatedly stalled below descending resistance, and the pattern remains intact until buyers produce a decisive daily close above the wedge’s upper trendline. With the 4H signal line at zero and the apex approaching, the next directional candle carries outsized weight.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin ETFs Will Be Bigger Than Gold ETFs, Says ETF Analyst

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Bitcoin ETFs Will Be Bigger Than Gold ETFs, Says ETF Analyst

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could surpass gold ETFs in total assets under management (AUM) as investor demand expands beyond the traditional “digital gold” narrative, according to ETF analyst James Seyffart.

“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart said on the Coin Stories podcast published to YouTube on Friday. He pointed to Bitcoin’s (BTC) role as digital gold, a store of value, a portfolio diversifier, and a form of digital capital and property, adding that the market also views Bitcoin as a “growth risk asset.”

Seyffart explained that Bitcoin has “all these different ways” of being viewed, while gold only has “one of those things.”

“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he added.

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Bitcoin ETFs are a “hot sauce” in the portfolio

“There are so many people that could use it. They could be viewing it to put in their portfolio because they want to bet on like a growth and liquidity trade,” he said. “It can be hot sauce in a portfolio in that way,” he added.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart spoke to Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast. Source: Coin Stories

Bitcoin is often compared to gold due to its limited supply and perceived role as a hedge against monetary debasement. 

US-based gold ETFs recorded net outflows of $2.92 billion in March, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.32 billion in net inflows over the same period.

Gold and BTC have declined over the past 30 days

The largest US gold-backed ETF, GLD, recorded a $3 billion outflow on Mar. 4, the largest daily withdrawal in more than two years.

On Mar. 19, Cointelegraph cited data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) showing retail gold purchases have tripled over the last six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the past four months.

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Related: Bitcoin ‘done’ with 85% crashes, says Cathie Wood amid new $34K target

Despite the divergence in ETF flows, both assets have moved broadly in tandem in recent weeks.

Bitcoin is trading at $66,918 at the time of publication, down 8.07% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap. Meanwhile, gold is trading at $4,676, down 8.25% over the past 30 days, according to GoldPrice data.

In December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper said that, “historically, gold and Bitcoin have taken turns outperforming. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if Bitcoin takes the lead next.”

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