Crypto World
WLFI May Have Signaled Crypto Crash Hours Before Bitcoin: Study
World Liberty Financial Token (WLFI), a DeFi governance token affiliated with the Trump family, may have signaled a major market breakdown hours before Bitcoin moved, according to a new analysis by data provider Amberdata.
The report examines trading activity on Oct. 10, 2025, when roughly $6.93 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in under an hour. Bitcoin (BTC) fell about 15% and Ether (ETH) dropped roughly 20%, while smaller tokens lost as much as 70%.
Amberdata found that WLFI began a sharp decline more than five hours before the broader market downturn. At the time, Bitcoin was still trading near $121,000 and showed little immediate stress.
“A five-hour lead time is hard to dismiss as coincidence,” Mike Marshall, who authored the report, told Cointelegraph. “That duration is what separates a genuinely actionable warning from a statistical artefact,” he added.
Related: Senators ask Bessent to probe $500M UAE stake in Trump-linked WLFI
WLFI anomalies before the selloff
Researchers analyzed three unusual patterns, including a surge in trading activity, a sharp divergence from Bitcoin and extreme leverage, to determine whether WLFI signaled stress before the broader market selloff.
WLFI’s hourly volume jumped to roughly $474 million, about 21.7 times its normal level, within minutes of tariff-related political news. Meanwhile, funding rates on WLFI perpetual futures reached about 2.87% every eight hours, equivalent to an annualized borrowing cost near 131%.
The study does not claim insider trading occurred. Instead, it argues the way crypto markets are structured can make certain assets matter more than their size suggests.
WLFI’s holder base is concentrated among politically connected participants, the report says, unlike Bitcoin’s widely distributed ownership. Marshall said the trading pattern appeared “instrument-specific,” meaning activity was focused on WLFI rather than across the broader crypto complex.
“If this were superior analysis (sophisticated participants reading the tariff headlines faster and drawing better conclusions) you’d expect to see that reflected more broadly,” he said. “What we actually saw was concentrated activity in WLFI first.”
The timing is notable. Trading volume accelerated roughly three minutes after public tariff news. Marshall said such speed suggests prepared execution rather than retail traders interpreting headlines in real time.
The link between WLFI and the broader market drop comes down to leverage. Many crypto trading platforms let traders use several assets as collateral for borrowed positions. When WLFI fell sharply, the value of that collateral dropped, forcing traders to sell liquid assets like Bitcoin and Ether to cover their positions. Those sales pushed prices lower and triggered further liquidations across the market.
Related: Trump family’s WLFI plans FX and remittance platform: Report
WLFI reacted faster than Bitcoin to stress
Amberdata’s data shows WLFI’s realized volatility reached nearly eight times that of Bitcoin during the episode, making it particularly sensitive to stress. Researchers argue that structurally fragile, highly leveraged assets may move first during market shocks.
Marshall said the findings should not be interpreted as proof that WLFI can reliably predict downturns. The analysis covers a single event, and more data would be needed to establish statistical consistency. Still, he believes the behavior is significant.
“So the useful life of this signal is finite. It’s valuable now because it’s under-monitored,” he said. “The moment it becomes consensus, the alpha gets arbitraged away. That’s how all market signals work. The ones that persist are the ones nobody’s paying attention to.”
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A new Amberdata analysis suggests that a niche DeFi token linked to the Trump family may have warned markets of stress well ahead of a broader crypto downturn. The study examines activity around World Liberty Financial Token (WLFI) on Oct. 10, 2025, a day when roughly $6.93 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated within an hour. On the same day, Bitcoin and Ether moved decisively lower, with smaller altcoins bearing heavier losses. At the time, Bitcoin was hovering near $121,000, showing limited immediate stress, while WLFI exhibited a pronounced decline hours before the wider market sell-off began to unfold.
The Amberdata report, available here, investigates how WLFI’s unusual price and liquidity dynamics interacted with the rest of the market as tariff news circulates in the political arena. The exploration follows a market episode in which macro headlines translated into rapid, asset-specific reactions, highlighting how a single instrument can behave as a bellwether in a highly leveraged crypto ecosystem.
“A five-hour lead time is hard to dismiss as coincidence,” said Mike Marshall, the analyst who authored the work. “That duration is what separates a genuinely actionable warning from a statistical artefact.” The study emphasizes that this signal is not a claim of insider trading but an observation about how the architecture of crypto markets can amplify the relevance of smaller, highly leveraged tokens when headline-driven stress hits liquidity chains.
WLFI anomalies before the selloff
Researchers focused on three telltale patterns that contrasted WLFI with the broader market: a surge in trading activity, a divergence from Bitcoin, and extreme leverage. WLFI’s hourly volume spiked to roughly $474 million, about 21.7 times its normal level, within minutes of tariff-related political news. At the same time, funding rates on WLFI perpetual futures climbed to about 2.87% every eight hours, translating to an annualized borrowing cost near 131%. These indicators fed into a narrative that the token was disproportionately sensitive to stress, even as the rest of the market looked comparatively placid shortly before the wave of liquidations hit.
The study does not assert insider knowledge or illicit trading; rather, it argues that the market structure can magnify the impact of asset-specific signals. One striking observation was WLFI’s holder base, which appears concentrated among politically connected participants, unlike the widely distributed ownership seen in Bitcoin. Marshall described the pattern as “instrument-specific,” with activity concentrated primarily in WLFI rather than across the crypto complex.
Timing mattered. The data show volume acceleration occurring roughly three minutes after public tariff headlines spilled into the market. Marshall notes that such rapid movement points to prepared execution rather than a collective, retail interpretation of headlines in real time. The implication, for researchers and market participants, is that under particular regulatory or geopolitical moments, an asset with high leverage and a tight, politically connected user base can become a pressure point in a broader liquidation cascade.
Another facet of the analysis ties WLFI’s stress to the mechanics of crypto collateral. In many trading venues, traders pledge a range of assets as collateral for borrowed positions. When WLFI’s price declined sharply, the value of those collateral pools fell, prompting forced liquidations of holdings like Bitcoin and Ether (CRYPTO: BTC, CRYPTO: ETH) to meet margin calls. In a market already under strain, those liquidations can amplify selling pressure across the broader ecosystem, pushing prices lower and triggering a wider selloff in a short span of time.
While WLFI’s decline appeared to precede the broader market’s weakness, Amberdata’s analysis stresses that the link is not deterministic. The report cautions against overinterpreting a single event as a predictive blueprint. Still, the authors argue that the episode offers a compelling glimpse into how leverage, asset-specific dynamics, and headline-driven liquidity shocks can interact in ways that amplify risk for other assets.
“If this were superior analysis (sophisticated participants reading the tariff headlines faster and drawing better conclusions) you’d expect to see that reflected more broadly,” Marshall said. “What we actually saw was concentrated activity in WLFI first.” The timing underscores a broader theme in crypto markets: signal concentration can precede systemic moves, at least in certain stress scenarios.
WLFI’s role in a market-wide cascade
Amberdata’s contemporaneous measurements indicate that WLFI’s realized volatility surged to levels nearly eight times those of Bitcoin during the stressed period, underscoring how sensitive highly leveraged assets can become when macro news hits. The researchers emphasize that such patterns do not necessarily predict downturns in a universal sense; instead, they can reveal how micro-architecture—structure of leverage, liquidity distribution, and collateralization—can produce early stress signals within a single instrument that eventually feeds into broader market dynamics.
From the perspective of risk managers and traders, the WLFI episode offers a cautionary note about risk concentration and cross-asset contagion. The fact that perimeter assets with concentrated ownership and high leverage can falter first means that monitoring instrument-specific signals may help identify pockets of fragility before they cascade. It also highlights the importance of robust margin and collateral frameworks that can absorb sudden shifts without triggering a rapid domino effect across correlated assets such as BTC and ETH.
Beyond the immediate market mechanics, the report sits at the intersection of policy headlines and digital asset pricing. The per-minute reaction time to tariff news illustrated how quickly information can translate into liquidity discipline—especially for assets that exist in a tight governance loop and are used as collateral in high-leverage positions. In a space where liquidity conditions can change in minutes, observers say the WLFI episode demonstrates why market participants must consider asset-level dynamics as a potential early warning tool, even if it does not guarantee predictive accuracy in every case.
Researchers acknowledge that WLFI’s linkage to the broader market depends on a confluence of factors—headline risk, macro policy signals, and the health of the DeFi ecosystem. The study’s broader implication is not that WLFI alone can forecast downturns; rather, it highlights how ecosystem fragility—driven by leverage, concentrated ownership, and instrument-specific behavior—can materialize in ways that precede shared downturns. As the crypto market continues to evolve, such signals may become an integral part of risk dashboards for sophisticated traders and institutions alike.
In a landscape where large-cap assets often dominate liquidity analyses, this episode serves as a reminder that smaller tokens with outsized leverage and targeted holder bases can temporarily steer attention toward systemic risk factors that would otherwise remain hidden. The question for market participants is whether these signals can be corroborated through additional data sets and repeated across multiple events, a task that will require more observations and longer time horizons to confirm transferability.
For now, Amberdata’s report remains a compelling case study in market microstructure: a single instrument with a distinctive balance of leverage and concentration can illuminate how stress travels through a network of collateralized positions, triggering liquidations that ripple through the broader market. As regulators and participants weigh the implications, the WLFI episode underscores the ongoing need for transparent data and robust risk controls in a crypto ecosystem that remains vulnerable to headline-driven shocks.
What to watch next
- Whether the WLFI signal can be replicated across other event windows or markets, and how often such lead times occur in future stress scenarios.
- Any regulatory or investigative developments related to WLFI, including disclosures about its holdings and governance structure.
- Shifts in liquidity provision and margin requirements on major derivative platforms amid geopolitical headlines.
- Further research from data providers validating instrument-specific stress signals and their predictive value for market-wide liquidations.
Sources & verification
- Amberdata, “coincidence or signal: did WLFI telegraph cryptos’ $6.93B meltdown?” (Oct. 2025) and related data on WLFI activity around Oct. 10, 2025.
- Cointelegraph, coverage of the Oct. 10, 2025 market crash and leveraged liquidations linked to tariff headlines.
- Senators request probe into WLFI stake and related governance questions (UAE-linked stake in WLFI).
- Reports on WLFI plans for foreign exchange and remittance platforms, highlighting the token’s evolving governance footprint.
Market signal and the WLFI episode: what it means for investors and the ecosystem
Morgan Stanley, the $9 trillion banking giant, is aggressively advancing its crypto infrastructure capabilities in DeFi and real-world assets tokenization.
The move aligns with a broader wave of traditional financial institutions seeking skilled staff to tap into the US’s current pro-crypto posture.
Morgan Stanley Ramps up DeFi and Tokenization Push
According to a job posting on LinkedIn, the Wall Street giant is seeking a senior-level engineer to direct its blockchain architecture.
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Notably, the job description explicitly mentions “decentralized finance (DeFi)” alongside tokenization as a core focus area.
These two sectors have emerged as the fastest-growing verticals within the crypto economy. Data from analytics platform DeFiLlama indicates that DeFi protocols and real-world asset tokenization projects now command more than $100 billion in combined total value locked (TVL).
To capitalize on this growth, the successful candidate will be tasked with building “scalable, secure, and regulatory-compliant solutions.” These systems would be designed to bridge the gap between traditional banking requirements and the emerging digital asset industries.
The posting requires proficiency in four distinct blockchains, including Ethereum, Polygon, Hyperledger, and Canton.
This combination suggests a tiered strategy using Ethereum and Polygon to provide public network liquidity and Layer-2 scaling efficiency.
Conversely, the firm appears set to deploy Hyperledger and Canton for institutional-grade, privacy-preserving permissioned transactions.
This infrastructure build-out aligns with Morgan Stanley’s broader crypto-related roadmap.
The firm is preparing to launch a proprietary crypto trading service on its E*Trade platform in the first half of 2026. The new offering will support trading for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.
The move mirrors aggressive expansion by traditional finance (TradFi) competitors. Asset management giant BlackRock and Fidelity have already begun interacting with these sectors to tokenize institutional funds.
At the same time, there has been a noticeable surge in blockchain-related vacancies at traditional financial giants like JPMorgan Chase.
This signals that the sector is transitioning from experimental pilot programs to the development of permanent, revenue-generating digital asset products.
Binance reserves have dropped to levels not seen since early 2024, and the timing is interesting. Right as liquidity thins out, price ripped 4.5% toward $1.50. That is not a coincidence the market can ignore.
On chain data shows Binance now holds only about 2.5 billion XRP. That is a noticeable squeeze on the sell side. Less supply sitting on exchanges usually means less immediate selling pressure.
And with sentiment slowly turning bullish again, this kind of liquidity drain can add fuel fast. When supply tightens and demand wakes up at the same time, things can move quicker than most expect.
- Binance XRP reserves have plummeted to roughly 2.5 billion, the lowest point since early 2024.
- Nearly 700 million coins have exited the exchange since November 2024, signaling a potential move to cold storage.
- Analysts interpret shrinking exchange balances as a classic accumulation signal that reduces selling pressure.
Is a Supply Shock Incoming?
The shift is not small. In November 2024, Binance was holding around 3.2 billion XRP. Now that number is closer to 2.5 billion. That is roughly 700 million tokens gone, about 22% of the stack wiped from exchange wallets in just over a year.
Analysts says this kind of drop usually signals tighter sell side liquidity. When coins leave exchanges, they often move into self custody. That is typically a longer term play, something institutions and whales tend to do when they are positioning, not trading.
What makes it more interesting is the timing. This reserve drain happened right after Binance rolled out full XRPL support for RLUSD. Many expected higher on chain velocity. Instead, XRP itself started flowing out.
Less supply on exchanges. Stronger price reaction. That combination is getting hard to ignore.
The Short Squeeze Scenario
What happens next comes down to funding rates. XRP funding recently hit 10 month lows, and historically that kind of reset has often come before strong upside moves.
If shorts are getting crowded while exchange supply keeps shrinking, a clean break above $1.55 could spark a sharp squeeze toward $1.80.
The setup is also getting support from improving regulatory sentiment, especially with Ripple leadership gaining more visibility in Washington.
For now, $1.45 is the key level to watch. If price holds there while reserves continue falling, that is the kind of confirmation bulls want before aiming for new highs.
The post Binance XRP Reserves Drop to 2024 Lows as Traders Eye Accumulation Signal appeared first on Cryptonews.
TLDR:
- Bitcoin recorded over 52% drawdown from all-time high as price fell below $60,000 on February 6
- Binance processed 25,000 BTC in panic-driven inflows before dropping threefold to 8,400 BTC recently
- Coinbase Advanced saw inflows plunge tenfold from 17,600 BTC peak to just 1,400 BTC in recent days
- Declining exchange inflows across platforms suggest selling pressure has largely subsided for now
Bitcoin volatility continues to test market participants as the leading cryptocurrency experiences a prolonged correction phase.
The digital asset dropped below $60,000 on February 6, recording a drawdown exceeding 52% from its all-time high. Exchange inflow data reveals panic-driven selling across both retail and institutional segments.
However, recent trends suggest selling pressure may be stabilizing as inflows decline substantially across major trading platforms.
Exchange Inflows Reveal Widespread Market Stress
The cryptocurrency market faced intense pressure on February 5 when Bitcoin inflows to exchanges surged dramatically.
Trading platforms recorded unusually high volumes as investors rushed to liquidate positions. This behavior reflected growing concerns about further price deterioration across the market.
Binance processed approximately 25,000 BTC in inflows during this period. The platform represents the largest global trading volume and serves a diverse user base.
The substantial flow indicated widespread selling activity across different investor categories. Market analyst Darkfost highlighted these developments in a detailed thread on the social media platform X.
Coinbase Advanced recorded 17,600 BTC in inflows on the same day. This figure represented a fivefold increase compared to early February levels.
The US-regulated platform primarily serves professional and institutional traders. The elevated activity demonstrated that sophisticated investors were not immune to market stress.
Both platforms experienced similar patterns despite serving different market segments. Retail traders and institutional participants alike moved assets onto exchanges for potential sales.
The synchronized behavior across platforms intensified downward price pressure. This dynamic created a challenging environment for all market participants attempting to navigate the correction.
Recovery Signals Emerge as Selling Pressure Subsides
Market conditions have improved considerably since the early February peak in exchange activity. Binance inflows declined to 8,400 BTC in subsequent days.
This represents a threefold reduction from the earlier surge. The decrease suggests panic selling has largely subsided among the platform’s user base.
Coinbase Advanced experienced an even more pronounced decline in inflows. The platform recorded just 1,400 BTC in recent activity.
This marks a tenfold reduction from the February 5 peak. Professional and institutional investors appear to have stabilized their positioning strategies.
The declining inflow trend indicates that forced selling has largely concluded. Market participants who needed to liquidate positions have already done so.
Remaining holders demonstrate greater conviction in their investment thesis. This shift creates conditions for potential price stabilization.
A modest recovery is already underway as selling pressure eases. The cryptocurrency has begun regaining some lost ground in recent sessions.
Sustained recovery depends on whether demand can match or exceed remaining supply. Market observers continue monitoring exchange flows for signs of renewed accumulation or distribution patterns.
Aave is pushing DeFi governance into a new phase. Its proposed $50 million deal to redirect product revenue back to the DAO could reshape how major protocols align incentives and reward token holders, an important shift in today’s crypto news cycle.
But while Aave continues to build, investors are hunting for the best crypto presale to buy. Most of the attention is now turning to DeepSnitch AI.
The project is developing a Web3-native Bloomberg Terminal, drawing over $1.6 million from whales in its presale. Many believe DSNT could be the most important crypto news today.
Aave Labs proposes $50M deal to redirect revenue to DAO
In the latest crypto news today, Aave Labs has requested a $50 million funding package from the Aave DAO in exchange for redirecting all revenue from Aave-branded products to the DAO treasury.
The proposal includes up to $42.5 million in stablecoins, $25 million as a primary grant and $17.5 million tied to milestones, along with 75,000 AAVE tokens worth roughly $8 million.
In return, revenue from platforms such as aave.com, the upcoming Aave App and Card, Aave Pro, Aave Kit, and Aave Horizon would flow entirely to the DAO.
Top 3 cryptocurrencies to buy amid the crypto news today
DeepSnitch AI
In the latest crypto news today, DeepSnitch AI continues advancing its presale, raising more than $1,590,000 with the token holding at $0.03985. That represents roughly 160% growth from its initial level, reflecting steady participation as the project progresses through its current stage.
The broader thesis centers on its launch structure. By postponing open-market trading while keeping the platform accessible to presale users, the team concentrates on early engagement within a limited group. This approach restricts immediate liquidity while allowing the product to mature and demonstrate utility before wider exposure.
Supply dynamics further shape expectations. More than 36 million tokens are already staked, reducing the projected circulating float ahead of listing. If awareness expands into a relatively constrained supply environment, early price discovery could be volatile.
There are also ongoing discussions about potential listings on major exchanges, though such outcomes remain speculative until formally confirmed. As with any presale, risks are significant, but DeepSnitch AI combines phased pricing, staking incentives, and live platform access.
Jasmy
JasmyCoin is trying to build a base after breaking a short-term bearish pattern. Fresh buying and optimism around the Jasmy Swap launch have helped sentiment. Price held above the key $0.0048 support on February 13, which keeps recovery hopes alive.
The bounce still looks fragile. Sellers blocked price near $0.0066–$0.0070 at the top of a descending channel. JASMY also struggles near the mid-Bollinger Band, which acts as resistance. The broader trend has not flipped.
MACD stays below its signal line and shows weak momentum. Bulls must push price above channel resistance to target $0.008 or even $0.01. If $0.0044–$0.0048 fails, sellers regain control.
Pi Network
Pi Network has gained over 10% as traders prepare for the February 15 mainnet upgrade. The update requires node operators to install new software. The team aims to improve speed, security, and scale. That catalyst has fueled buying interest.
PI has broken a short-term descending trendline and shifted momentum higher. Price now holds above $0.15, which shows buyers defend support. The next test sits at $0.20, a key psychological and technical level.
If PI closes above $0.20, the price could move toward $0.22–$0.25. If bulls fail there, the token may pull back to $0.14–$0.15. Strong selling could expose $0.12.
The bottom line
DeepSnitch AI is the rare chance to sidestep the noise of crypto winter and position before the crowd arrives. While the crypto news today focuses on governance proposals and short-term price swings, the real opportunity sits in this presale.
At $0.03985, a $2,000 allocation secures roughly 52,200 DSNT, and with the DSNTVIP30 bonus, that stack grows even larger before launch.
With over $1.6 million already raised, staking locking supply, and exchange speculation building, the upside narrative is clear. If adoption accelerates in 2026, early buyers won’t just outperform; they could redefine their entire portfolio trajectory.
Visit the official DeepSnitch AI website, join Telegram, and follow on X for more updates.
FAQs
How does breaking crypto news today impact new investment opportunities?
Breaking crypto news drives short-term volatility, but DeepSnitch AI offers stronger long-term upside through utility and presale positioning.
Which project stands out in the latest blockchain updates?
Among the latest blockchain updates, DeepSnitch AI leads with AI-powered analytics, staking incentives, and accelerating whale participation.
What do current crypto industry headlines suggest for 2026?
Crypto industry headlines highlight innovation, yet DeepSnitch AI remains the top presale for asymmetric growth potential.
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
Crypto World
BlackRock’s head of digital assets warns leverage-driven volatility risks undermine b itcoin’s institutional narrative
NEW YORK — While BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is among the most successful product launches in Wall Street history, the crypto market’s growing reliance on leverage could be doing long-term damage to bitcoin’s institutional appeal, according to Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock.
During a conversation with Anthony Pompliano and investor Dan Tapiero at the Bitcoin Investor Week conference in New York on Thursday, Mitchnick said that while bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, excessive speculation — particularly on leveraged derivatives platforms — is introducing instability that threatens the asset’s positioning as a serious portfolio hedge.
“These days where you have a tiny little thing that shouldn’t have any price impact really at all — and if it does, should be small — like, for example, October 10th, some tariff-related thing, and next thing you know, [bitcoin] is down 20%,” Mitchnick said. “That’s because you get cascading liquidations and auto-deleveraging.”
While bitcoin’s long-term value proposition as a “global, scarce, decentralized monetary asset” remains intact, Mitchnick warned that the asset’s short-term trading behavior is starting to look dangerously similar to “levered NASDAQ” — a perception that may deter conservative allocators from entering the space.
“The facts are more on the side of how I characterized it,” he said, referring to bitcoin’s fundamental attributes. “But now the trading data, at least lately, looks very different, and the bar to adoption if it trades like levered NASDAQ is much, much, much higher.”
Mitchnick also pushed back on the idea that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like IBIT are contributing to volatility, pointing instead to perpetual futures platforms as the source of instability.
“There’s a misperception out there that it’s a bunch of hedge funds in ETFs that are creating volatility and selling; that’s not what we’re seeing,” he said. “On a week that was tumultuous, obviously, in the bitcoin market, we had 0.2% of the fund redeem. If there actually were hedge funds massively unwinding trades… you would have seen billions. We saw many billions liquidated on these levered platforms.”
Despite short-term turbulence, Mitchnick emphasized that BlackRock remains committed to digital assets as part of a broader financial transformation.
“We see ourselves as having the role of a bridge… between traditional finance and the digital asset world,” he said. “Over time, there’s certainly going to continue to be a greater role for digital assets and this technology theme in general for many of our clients.”
Read More: Bitcoin May Evolve Into Low-Beta Equity Play Reflexively, BlackRock’s Mitchnik Says
BTC’s bottom might not be in, warned ChatGPT and said there could be more pain ahead for investors. Here’s how low bitcoin could go.
Whenever bitcoin corrects after a prolonged rally, the general question within the cryptocurrency community is whether this is another “healthy” retracement in a bull market, or the trend has changed completely, and the bears are in full control.
The past few months, though, do not appear to be a regular correction. Bitcoin traded above $126,000 in early October before it plunged to under $100,000 by the end of the year. Its impressive start to 2026 was quickly halted, and the asset plummeted to $60,000 last Friday, charting a 52% drop since its all-time high.
What’s perhaps even more worrying is the fact that most other asset classes, including the precious metal market, kept riding high during this time, charting consecutive new peaks.
As such, we decided to ask ChatGPT if it believes BTC is indeed in a bear market or whether this is another ‘typical’ correction.
Is It a Bear Market?
The AI solution acknowledged the substantial crash in early February, indicating that it “represents a major structural shift.”
“Importantly, the $60K zone was a former breakout level during the 2025 rally, which now acts as critical support.”
If the cryptocurrency finds a solid support and stabilizes at these levels, as it has done in the past week, the move south could “resemble previous 50% resets seen during strong cycles,” said the AI. However, a breakdown below these levels could “strengthen the bear thesis significantly.”
In conclusion to this question, ChatGPT said that BTC is indeed in a bear market, at least by the definition of that phrase. The only thing that remains uncertain is the magnitude and duration.
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Where Is the Bottom?
OpenAI’s platform believes there’s a 35% chance that the bottom was in at $60,000. However, its most likely scenario envisions at least one more leg down that could drive the cryptocurrency to $50,000-$52,000.
“The $50K region represents a strong psychological level and prior consolidation zone. A move here would mark a roughly 60% drawdown from the all-time high, aligning with more severe but still cyclical corrections.”
ChatGPT also outlined two extreme cases, both of which it believes are highly unlikely – a capitulation crash to $40,000-$45,000 or a full-on investor exodus to under $35,000. Nevertheless, it explained that both of these scenarios would require a massive black swan event, such as FTX’s collapse or a new war.
Will Bitcoin Endure?
No matter which of the aforementioned scenarios materializes, ChatGPT remains positive on bitcoin’s long-term potential. It reminded that the asset has experienced and survived far worse drawdowns of up to 80% or even 90% in its early days.
“The most realistic bottom range currently sits between $50K and $60K, with a deeper flush toward the low-$40Ks possible if macro conditions worsen. However, bitcoin has shown extreme resiliency in the past, and there’s not much evidence to suggest otherwise now.”
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Payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP is rising faster than bitcoin and ether after investors hunted for bargains post early-month crash.
XRP’s price has rallied 38% to $1.55 since hitting a low of $1.12 on Feb. 6, according to CoinDesk data. Prices have jumped by more than 5% in the past 24 hours alone.
This performance puts it well ahead of both bitcoin and ether, which have recovered roughly 15% since Feb. 6. As of writing, bitcoin and ether changed hands at $69,420 and $2,020, respectively.
XRP’s bitcoin-beating rally tracks signs of dip-buying on Binance following the Feb. 6 crash. CryptoQuant data indicates Binance’s XRP reserves dropped sharply by 192.37 million XRP to 2.553 billion between February 7 and 9. The 7% slide marked the lowest level since January 2024, and holdings have remained stable since then.
Analysts typically associate a drop in exchange balances with investor accumulation. The logic is that investors prefer to take direct custody of coins rather than keep them on exchanges when intending to hold them long-term.
Sudden, sharp withdrawals can reduce available supply, opening the door to a price rally. Historical trends reinforce this view. XRP rallied sharply from $0.60 to over $2.40 in the final two months of 2024 as the balance held on exchanges slid faster.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is calling for a fundamental restructuring of decentralized prediction markets. He argues that the sector’s current reliance on speculative gambling threatens its long-term viability.
This view comes as prediction marketplaces like Polymarket have enjoyed significant success over the past year.
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Buterin Calls for Structural Overhaul of Prediction Markets
On February 14, Buterin contended that while platforms like Polymarket have achieved significant volume and mainstream attention, they are currently suffering from an “unhealthy market fit.”
“[Prediction markets] seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value,” Buterin argued.
He warned that the sector is dangerously over-reliant on “naive traders,” defined as speculators seeking short-term payouts.
This speculative behavior contrasts sharply with the markets’ intended purpose: facilitating information discovery and risk management.
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Buterin categorized current market participants into two distinct groups: “smart traders” and “money losers.” Currently, the latter category is dominated by retail gamblers.
He argued that if prediction markets continue to prioritize revenue extraction from these users over societal utility, they risk collapsing during bear markets when speculative fervor cools.
“There is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally “cursed” about relying on this too much. It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in,” the Ethereum co-founder contended.
To secure a sustainable future, Buterin proposed that these platforms transition to “hedging”—effectively serving as insurance mechanisms rather than betting platforms.
In this model, a user would not bet on an outcome to make a profit, but rather to offset real-world risks, such as a business owner betting on a policy change that could negatively impact their supply chain.
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AI-Driven Hedge System to Replace Fiat
The Ethereum co-founder’s recommendations extended into radical economic territory, suggesting that prediction markets could eventually render fiat-pegged stablecoins obsolete.
Buterin proposed creating granular price indices covering major categories of global goods and services.
Under this theoretical framework, users would utilize local Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze their personal spending habits. The AI would then construct a personalized “basket” of asset shares that mirrors the user’s specific cost of living.
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By holding these prediction market shares rather than U.S. dollar-pegged assets such as USDC or USDT, users could theoretically maintain their purchasing power against inflation without relying on traditional banking infrastructure.
“We do not need fiat currency at all! People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability,” he wrote.
Buterin acknowledged that transitioning from the current “info buying” phase to an advanced hedging economy would require new infrastructure.
However, he maintained that replacing fiat currency with diversified asset baskets remains the technology’s ultimate evolution.
Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Stall, Is This the Next Big Cryptocurrency to Invest In?
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have entered a period of consolidation, with both assets showing reduced momentum after earlier rallies. While they remain dominant in terms of market capitalization and long-term relevance, recent price action suggests near-term upside may be more limited as broader macro conditions and risk sentiment weigh on crypto markets.
BTC and ETH: Leaders Facing Short-Term Resistance
Bitcoin continues to trade below its previous all-time highs, moving within a relatively tight range as institutional inflows slow and market participants wait for clearer macro signals. As the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, BTC requires substantial capital to generate outsized percentage gains, which naturally moderates short-term upside during consolidation phases.
Ethereum, despite its strong ecosystem of DeFi, NFTs, and layer-2 networks, has also experienced sideways movement. Even with ongoing network upgrades and staking participation, ETH’s large valuation base makes exponential growth harder to achieve quickly. In such environments, capital often rotates toward smaller projects that combine early valuation with visible development progress.
Mutuum Finance: Early-Stage Growth With Active Development
Mutuum Finance (MUTM) is one such project drawing attention during this period of consolidation. Unlike large-cap tokens already trading on major exchanges, MUTM remains in its presale phase, currently priced at $0.04 with a confirmed launch price of $0.06. Since its initial Phase 1 price of $0.01, the token has already increased by 300%, and by launch it will reflect a total 500% progression from its starting level.
The presale has raised over $20.5 million and attracted more than 19,000 holders. Out of the 1.82 billion tokens allocated for presale, over 845 million have already been secured, bringing distribution close to its midpoint. Because the current price remains below the confirmed launch valuation, some investors view this phase as a discounted entry before public trading begins.
Mutuum Finance (MUTM) has emerged as one of the newer projects gaining attention while major caps pause. The protocol focuses on decentralized lending and borrowing built around overcollateralization and flexible liquidity models.
The platform introduces two complementary systems. In its Peer-to-Contract (P2C) model, users supply assets into smart-contract-managed liquidity pools where borrowing and interest rates are dynamically adjusted based on utilization. This pooled structure allows lenders to earn yield while borrowers access capital without selling their holdings.
In addition, Mutuum supports a Peer-to-Peer (P2P) framework, where lenders and borrowers can directly negotiate loan terms. This approach is particularly useful for assets that may not fit neatly into standardized liquidity pools, enabling greater flexibility across different token categories.
V1 Protocol Now Live
A distinguishing factor for Mutuum Finance is that its V1 protocol is already live on the Sepolia testnet. This means users can actively interact with the system before mainnet launch, testing its core infrastructure in a simulated environment.
Currently, participants can explore the following features:
- mtTokens: Minted when users supply assets, representing deposit positions that accrue yield over time.
- Debt Tokens: Issued upon borrowing to track principal and interest accumulation transparently on-chain.
- Automated Liquidator: Continuously monitors collateral ratios and triggers liquidations when thresholds are breached.
- Health Factor Monitoring: Provides real-time risk metrics to help users manage borrowing positions responsibly.
By offering live testnet functionality rather than only conceptual documentation, the project demonstrates operational readiness ahead of full deployment.
Why Some View It as a “Next Big” Candidate
While Bitcoin and Ethereum remain foundational assets, their growth curves tend to stabilize as market capitalization increases. In contrast, earlier-stage projects like Mutuum Finance begin from significantly smaller valuations, meaning adoption and listing exposure can have proportionally larger price impacts.
The combination of dual lending models, working testnet infrastructure, and structured presale progression positions Mutuum Finance differently from purely speculative tokens. Additionally, roadmap elements such as multichain expansion and native stablecoin development add longer-term ecosystem depth beyond initial launch.
Periods when Bitcoin and Ethereum stall often prompt investors to reassess allocation strategies. While large-cap assets remain core holdings for many portfolios, emerging DeFi infrastructure projects with live products and defined utility may offer differentiated growth potential.
Mutuum Finance, with its operational V1 protocol and flexible lending architecture, is increasingly being evaluated by investors seeking exposure to the next wave of decentralized finance innovation beyond traditional market leaders.
For more information about Mutuum Finance (MUTM) visit the links below:
Website: https://www.mutuum.com
Linktree: https://linktr.ee/mutuumfinance
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
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