XRP’s price action has been in an extended downtrend for eight months, but a convergence of on-chain signals is drawing attention to a potential bottoming narrative. The XRP/BTC pair’s RSI sits deep in the oversold zone, with readings around 24, a level that has historically aligned with macro bottoms and subsequent recoveries. Data tracked by TradingView, and summarized in recent coverage, suggest this could be more than a temporary squeeze for the cross-pair.

Beyond the RSI, on-chain analytics are flashing a similar signal. XRP’s MVRV Z-score, a gauge that compares market value to realized value, is hovering near zero—a cadence historically associated with accumulation phases and capitulation-driven bottoms. Glassnode’s metrics indicate that such coordinates often precede meaningful rallies, echoing a pattern seen in prior cycles in 2021, 2022 and again in 2024 before pronounced upside moves.

To place these signals in a market context, a Cointelegraph chart that overlays XRP/BTC price action against the broader market shows that the last bottom in XRP/BTC around this zone in June 2025 preceded a substantial rally: a 61% rebound in the XRP/BTC ratio and a 92% surge in XRP/USD to a multi-year high of roughly $3.66. The chart’s yellow bars emphasize how these zones have repeatedly acted as macro bottoms for the XRP/BTC pair.

Key takeaways

• RSI for XRP/BTC at about 24 signals an oversold condition that historically marks macro bottoms and the start of new uptrends.
• MVRV Z-score for XRP is near zero, a level that has preceded accumulation phases and subsequent rallies in multiple prior cycles.
• Glassnode heatmaps show a substantial cost-basis distribution around the $1.30 area, with about 1.73 billion XRP bought near that price band.
• The XRP/USD price must hold above a key support zone of $1.25–$1.30; losing this zone could open a path toward a lower demand area, including the $1.15 region and the 200-week moving average.
• Historical patterns suggest that bottoms from these levels have been followed by meaningful rallies, though macro conditions and market sentiment remain critical filters.

On-chain signals point to a potential bottoming process

From a technical standpoint, XRP’s recent price action is painting a familiar picture: a prolonged downtrend cooled by deep oversold momentum. The RSI reading in the XRP/BTC pair has rarely dropped further in recent cycles without a subsequent phase of consolidation before a bounce, and in this cycle, the indicator sits at levels that have historically preceded risk-off capitulation turning into a recovery phase. While RSI alone is not a predictor, when paired with the on-chain landscape, it reinforces a stance that selling pressure might be ebbing.

Complementing the RSI, the MVRV Z-score provides a more long-horizon perspective. The score near zero implies that many investors are near breakeven and may be less inclined to rush toward the exit. That dynamic can reduce downside pressure and enable a more stable base to form, a hallmark of accumulation zones that precede rallies. The last time XRP’s MVRV Z-score revisited these levels, similar to late-2024 and early-2025, the market accrued strength before resuming gains.

Analysts have tied these signals to a broader narrative about XRP’s cycle. An observed pattern from prior cycles shows that whenever these on-chain indicators align with oversold momentum, they often pave the way for a multi-month recovery in price. This is not a forecast but a lens through which traders are evaluating risk and opportunity at current levels.

“If this zone continues to hold, then a short-term bounce towards $1.45 can’t be ruled out.”

That perspective, voiced by a trader on X, reflects a plausible near-term pathway if the current support remains intact and buyers step in at the zone around $1.25–$1.30. The emphasis is on the zone’s integrity: a sustained hold here would be a signal that demand could reassert itself and push XRP toward higher ground, even before evaluating macro catalysts.

Support, resistance, and what could unfold next

From a price-structure standpoint, the immediate floor lies in the $1.25–$1.30 band. This zone has held since early February 2026 and has acted as a crucial pivot point for the bull-bear balance. If demand persists in defending this range, a measured rebound could unfold, potentially aiming toward the $1.45 area and beyond. Traders eyeing a return to higher levels would look for a continued rejection of shorts at these thresholds, coupled with improving on-chain signals and stabilizing price action.

However, a breach below the zone would raise the risk of a more extended downside move. The next line of defense sits near the $1.15 area, where the 200-week simple moving average has hovered. A break below this level could trigger a swift re-pricing, pushing XRP toward the bear-flag target around $0.80, a level that would reframe the risk-reward for bulls in the near term. In practice, this setup makes the $1.30 region a critical fulcrum for bulls and bears alike.

Beyond the immediate levels, market observers note that the long-run trajectory will hinge on a confluence of factors: the capacity of XRP to sustain on-chain health, macro risk appetite, and regulatory developments that could influence crypto liquidity and sentiment. The broader narrative of XRP’s cycle has historically shown that bottoms in this zone have not been isolated events; they have often coincided with stronger macro flows and renewed buying interest from longer-horizon holders.

On the price trajectory, the charted path hints at upside potential if the zone holds. Prior episodes have demonstrated that a bottom in this region can coincide with a shift in momentum and a fresh phase of accumulation, eventually leading to fresh highs once the market reasserts confidence. In this context, observers see the possibility of XRP moving toward the $1.70 level or higher if buyers maintain control and the macro environment remains favorable.

Context, history, and what anchors traders are watching

Historical context matters for investors seeking to gauge risk. The rally pattern that followed the June 2025 XRP/BTC bottom—characterized by a 61% improvement in the XRP/BTC ratio and a 92% surge in XRP/USD to a multi-year high—offers a concrete example of how a bottom can translate into meaningful upside within a relatively short timeframe. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, the alignment of on-chain signals with price action in that period reinforces a cautious optimism among market participants.

Another anchor is the cost-basis distribution. Glassnode’s heatmap shows that roughly 1.73 billion XRP were accumulated near the $1.30 price level, suggesting a robust base of investors with meaningful exposure in that band. This concentration can provide a ballast to price during volatility but may also attract selling pressure if the price falters, given the number of coins purchased at or near the same level. The dynamics underscore the importance of the $1.25–$1.30 support as both a technical and a psychology-driven threshold.

For readers seeking corroboration, the broader narrative has drawn on a mix of price charts and on-chain metrics, including references to XRP’s performance in other cycles and the behavior of the XRP/USD and XRP/BTC cross-pairs. Notably, Cointelegraph has highlighted past instances where XRP’s bottom against Bitcoin in that zone preceded sharp rallies, illustrating how cross-market relationships can amplify a rally even when the USD price remains at modest levels. These data points provide a framework for assessing risk in the current environment, rather than a single-point forecast.

What to watch next

Investors should keep a close eye on whether XRP can sustain the $1.25–$1.30 support zone in the near term. A stable hold would bolster the case for a bounce and could draw in momentum traders seeking a breakout above the immediate overheads. Conversely, a break below $1.15, with a potential retest of the 200-week moving average, would shift the outlook toward a more cautious stance and raise the odds of revisiting the lower $0.80 region.

In addition to price actions, market participants should monitor the evolving on-chain narrative around MVRV Z-scores and holder cost bases. A continued alignment between on-chain metrics and price strength would be a meaningful signal that the market is re-accumulating effectively. As always, macro conditions—liquidity, risk appetite, and regulatory clarity—will shape the pace and duration of any nascent upturn.

Readers should watch for further developments in XRP’s cross-market dynamics, including how the XRP/BTC pair behaves around the current consolidation range and whether the broader crypto market conditions provide the catalysts needed for a sustained move higher. If the zone holds and macro sentiment improves, a path toward higher levels—potentially toward the $1.70 area or beyond—could emerge as part of a broader re-pricing of risk in the months ahead.