Kraken parent Payward has partnered with SoFi in a deal that will bring SoFiUSD to Kraken and connect the crypto platform to SoFi’s 24/7 dollar settlement network.

Under the partnership, SoFi will use Kraken Prime as an additional source of digital asset liquidity, while Payward will join the SoFi Exchange Network (SEN) and gain access to SoFi’s business banking services.

The companies said qualified custody services could be added as the partnership expands, while Kraken’s institutional and business clients will gain access to SEN for round-the-clock US dollar settlement.

SoFiUSD, issued by SoFi Bank, is a dollar-backed stablecoin launched in 2026 for payments and settlement, with reserves held in cash and short-term US Treasurys.

Source: Payward

According to a Thursday blog post from Kraken, SoFi will route digital asset orders through Kraken Prime, which uses smart order routing to evaluate pricing and market depth across supported venues in real time and route orders based on where they can be filled most effectively.

SoFi has 15.8 million members and already offers crypto trading through its app. Kraken said routing those trades through Kraken Prime will give SoFi access to liquidity across multiple trading venues rather than relying on a single order book.

Related: Kraken parent Payward acquires Magic Labs’ wallet business

Payward expands traditional finance ties

The SoFi partnership follows a series of moves by Payward and Kraken to expand beyond crypto markets and build ties with traditional financial institutions.

Earlier this week, London Stock Exchange Group reportedly partnered with Payward to offer tokenized versions of leading UK equities through LSE 24, a new 24/5 trading venue set to launch in 2027. In August, Kraken added round-the-clock exposure to the S&P 500 through its funded trading program, with commodities expected to follow.

Kraken has also expanded into public markets through xStocks, the tokenized equities platform developed by Backed Finance, which Kraken acquired in early 2026. The exchange has since used the platform to offer eligible users exposure to shares tied to the SpaceX and Jersey Mike’s IPOs through tokenized equities and, in some cases, direct share allocations.

Source: Kraken

Payward’s push into traditional finance comes as the company prepares to go public, although its IPO plans have reportedly been pushed back several times.

The company confidentially submitted a draft registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in November 2025. However, reports indicate that the listing has been pushed to the second quarter of 2027 at the earliest.

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Bitcoin pushed higher during US trading hours, climbing about 5% to trade near $81,000. The rally coincided with renewed volatility in Japan’s yen, where investors appear to be responding to suspected Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention and expectations for further rate action.

Alongside BTC’s move, the US Dollar Index (DXY) slid to around 99 as USD/JPY fell to 155.4. Historically, a weaker dollar has tended to support risk assets including crypto, and the latest unwind in the dollar’s strength helped Bitcoin find fresh momentum.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin rose ~5% in US hours, reaching roughly $81,000.
• USD/JPY slid to 155.4, pressuring the DXY down to ~99.
• Polymarket odds for a BOJ hold collapsed from 12% to 1%, implying a strong rate-hike bias.
• Market pricing now favors a 25-basis-point hike on Sept. 18 with a 98% probability.
• Carry-trade unwind concerns have been revived, though some traders frame intervention as liquidity-supportive.

Yen strength, dollar weakness, and Bitcoin’s lift

At the time of writing, BTC was trading around $81,000, close to recent highs and within striking distance of levels seen earlier in the month. The move tracked developments in foreign exchange, particularly yen appreciation that market observers link to possible BOJ action.

Cointelegraph reported earlier this week that investors were watching for suspected yen defense, and the follow-through has been visible in the numbers. After USD/JPY fell to 158.5 on Wednesday, the pair continued lower to 155.4. That drop weighed on the DXY, taking it to roughly 99, a dynamic that has often coincided with better conditions for Bitcoin.

For traders, the key question is whether the dollar weakness is a temporary reaction or part of a broader repricing. If USD weakness persists, Bitcoin may continue to benefit; if it reverses, the catalyst behind the rally could fade quickly.

What BOJ expectations are saying about rates

The yen move has also reawakened attention on the BOJ’s upcoming policy decision. According to Polymarket pricing, the probability of a rate hold dropped sharply—from 12% to 1%—suggesting traders increasingly view action as likely.

Polymarket also shows a 98% probability that the BOJ will deliver a 25-basis-point hike at its Sept. 18 meeting. The shift matters because it reinforces the market’s expectation of tighter Japanese monetary policy, which can influence global liquidity and capital flows.

Even when the rate change itself is localized, the impact can spread. Moves in Japanese policy expectations often affect funding conditions for traders and funds positioned in yen carry trades—strategies that borrow in low-yield currencies to invest elsewhere.

Carry-trade unwind fears vs. liquidity-positive interpretations

With USD/JPY falling rapidly, some analysts and market participants are framing the latest yen defense as a potential signal of heightened risk for carry trades. The Macro Paper highlighted on X that a nearly 2.5% drop in USD/JPY over 24 hours would be difficult to explain without meaningful intervention. The post also linked the current setup to a similar episode in Q3 2024, when BOJ intervention and rate hikes occurred together.

That perspective is important for crypto investors because carry-trade unwinds can tighten financial conditions globally, sometimes pressuring liquidity-sensitive assets. In that scenario, Bitcoin’s rally could face headwinds if risk appetite deteriorates or if markets interpret intervention as signaling deeper policy urgency.

However, not everyone sees intervention purely as a source of stress. Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, has previously argued that the FIMA repo facility can provide Japan with dollar liquidity backed by Treasury collateral—potentially easing overall liquidity conditions. While no funds appear to have been drawn from the facility so far, Cointelegraph noted that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised the possibility in late July.

This creates a tension in how markets may interpret the same event. If intervention supports liquidity, it could bolster global risk assets. If it mainly triggers currency risk and forced positioning, it can do the opposite. For now, the data points—yen strength, DXY weakness, and BOJ pricing—are at least temporarily aligned with a positive impulse for Bitcoin.

Stocks tied to Bitcoin also participate

Bitcoin’s move wasn’t confined to crypto markets. Shares of Strategy—Michael Saylor’s MSTR—rose 8.6% on Wednesday, participating in the broader risk-on response. The stock is reportedly up 70% from its late-June lows, though it remains down roughly 10% year-to-date.

The rally also extended to Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock STRC. At the time of writing, STRC was trading around $97.80, below its stated par value of $100—a reminder that equity-linked crypto exposures can move together while still reflecting their own structural pricing dynamics.

Related coverage from Cointelegraph noted Strategy’s turn of 1,690 BTC into a $108.6M STRC buyback.

Going forward, traders will likely watch whether USD/JPY continues to slide and whether the DXY can hold lower levels. Equally important is whether BOJ rate pricing stays fixed into Sept. 18, or if new signals push Polymarket odds back toward a hold—either shift could change the near-term balance of forces driving Bitcoin’s next move.

Michigan has escalated its efforts to rein in Kalshi, a prediction markets platform, by securing a preliminary injunction that blocks the company from offering event contracts to residents. The state’s attorney general said the order is meant to stop what officials described as “sports betting” operating under the guise of an investment product.

In a notice dated Wednesday, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel said the Circuit Court for the 30th Judicial Circuit in Ingham County approved the injunction after earlier court action. Nessel also noted that Kalshi could face penalties of up to $500,000 per day if it violates the order.

Key takeaways

• Michigan’s court issued a preliminary injunction barring Kalshi from offering event contracts to state residents.
• Attorney General Dana Nessel framed the case as “sports betting” disguised as an investment opportunity, with daily fines possible.
• The injunction follows a June temporary restraining order and comes amid an ongoing dispute over whether prediction markets fall under federal CFTC authority or state jurisdiction.
• New Jersey simultaneously moved to ask the US Supreme Court to weigh in, potentially affecting how courts resolve conflicting legal theories.
• Legislative proposals in Washington target insider trading risks in event contracts, but they may not resolve the broader jurisdictional fight on their own.

Michigan blocks Kalshi’s event contracts

According to a press release from Michigan’s attorney general, the Ingham County court order prevents Kalshi from offering “event contracts” to residents of the state. Nessel said the decision helps protect Michigan consumers from what she characterized as “predatory, unlicensed practices.”

Under the terms described by Nessel, Kalshi faces potentially steep financial exposure if it does not comply with the injunction. The attorney general’s filing is the latest step in a wider legal campaign targeting prediction market operations that state officials argue resemble sports wagering.

The Michigan litigation dates back to a lawsuit filed in March, when Nessel alleged Kalshi violated Michigan law related to sports gambling. Similar arguments have appeared in other states, reflecting how quickly prediction markets have moved from niche tools for forecasting into mainstream attention—along with intensified scrutiny from regulators.

From temporary restraining order to preliminary injunction

The preliminary injunction does not arrive in isolation. It follows a June temporary restraining order that previously barred Kalshi from offering sports betting-like products to Michigan residents.

During that earlier stage, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ordered Kalshi not to comply with Michigan’s temporary order and to continue operating. Kalshi later described the situation as placing it in an “impossible position,” according to an earlier account referenced by Cointelegraph.

After the June order, a Kalshi spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the company disagreed with Michigan’s decision and “will fight it in court,” while stating it was complying with restrictions imposed by the court.

That sequence—state court restrictions paired with federal regulator guidance—helps explain why the Michigan dispute has drawn broader attention beyond the state’s borders. The case is part of a larger effort by courts and regulators to determine what rule set governs prediction markets in the US.

New Jersey seeks Supreme Court review

Michigan’s most recent decision coincided with another development in New Jersey. State officials announced they filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the US Supreme Court related to the Kalshi dispute.

The petition, as described in earlier coverage linked by Cointelegraph, raises the prospect that the justices could resolve competing legal theories about whether prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC or whether states retain the authority to ban and/or regulate such contracts.

In remarks provided to Cointelegraph, Melinda Roth, a visiting professor of practice at New England Law in Boston, said it would be reasonable for the Supreme Court to take up the matter. Roth also suggested the court might choose to wait until cases are decided on their merits rather than focus solely on procedural questions such as whether a preliminary injunction is appropriate.

“If and when SCOTUS takes it up, then this will likely decide whether sports event contracts are federally regulated by the CFTC or the states have the right to ban and/or regulate them as they see appropriate.”

Roth added that Congress could potentially act before Supreme Court review, either before or after any decision, which underscores how jurisdictional clarity might arrive through courts—or via legislation—depending on political and legal timelines.

Policy push targets insider information as legal battles continue

Alongside the court fights, some lawmakers have proposed legislation aimed at a different risk area: the use of insider information in event contracts. According to earlier reporting linked by Cointelegraph, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced a bill in March that would prohibit CFTC-registered platforms from listing event contracts that “resembles a sports bet or casino-style game,” effectively channeling enforcement and jurisdiction toward states.

That proposal points to an emerging pattern in the broader prediction market debate: lawmakers and regulators are not only disputing jurisdiction, they are also trying to address market integrity concerns—particularly the potential for trading based on nonpublic information.

For participants in prediction markets, the practical takeaway is that the legal landscape may remain fragmented. Even as federal agencies and courts weigh in on authority, states like Michigan continue to pursue injunctions that can immediately affect access for residents, while Supreme Court review could later reshape the rules nationwide—if the case is taken up and decided.

Investors, traders, and developers should watch for how higher courts respond to the jurisdictional questions raised by the Michigan and New Jersey proceedings, as well as whether Congress advances a framework that addresses both integrity risks and the dividing line between state and federal oversight.

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