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XRP Price Analysis Reveals Why the 30% Bounce Failed

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XRP Price Structure

The XRP price rebounded more than 30% after bouncing from its early February low near $1.12. The move revived hopes of a recovery and briefly pushed the token toward the $1.50 zone. On the surface, the rally looked constructive. Momentum indicators improved. A breakout pattern began to form. Traders started discussing a possible trend reversal.

But blockchain data tells a different story. Instead of showing strong accumulation, on-chain metrics suggest that many holders used the rebound to exit losing positions. Selling at a loss remains dominant. Several groups are still reducing exposure. This raises a key question: was the bounce genuine demand, or simply exit liquidity for trapped sellers?

Technical Setup Shows Bounce Potential, But It Needs Confirmation

On the 12-hour chart, XRP is trading inside a falling wedge pattern, with a 56% breakout potential above the upper trendline.

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For this pattern to activate, XRP needs to first reclaim its short-term moving average, the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which gives more weight to recent prices. This level acts as dynamic resistance in downtrends. In early January, a clean break above this EMA triggered a rally of nearly 30%.

Momentum is also showing early improvement.

Between January 31 and February 9, XRP printed a lower low in price. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator that measures buying and selling pressure, formed a higher low. This bullish divergence suggests that sellers are losing strength.

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XRP Price Structure
XRP Price Structure: TradingView

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On its own, this setup points to a possible bounce.

But technical patterns only work when holders are willing to stay invested. To understand whether this bounce has real support, we need to look at how investors are behaving on-chain.

SOPR Shows Holders Are Still Selling at Losses Despite the Bounce

One of the clearest warning signals comes from the Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR. SOPR measures whether coins being moved on-chain are sold in profit or at a loss. When it stays above 1, it shows profit-taking. When it remains below 1, it shows loss-selling.

Since late January, XRP’s SOPR has remained below 1 for more than ten consecutive days.

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SOPR Under 1
SOPR Under 1: Glassnode

This is unusual. After a 30%+ rebound, short-term traders are normally sitting in profit. That usually pushes SOPR higher. But in XRP’s case, profitability never returned. Loss selling continued even as the price recovered. This means many holders are still exiting underwater positions.

In simple terms, the market is not seeing confident profit-taking. It is seeing stress-driven exits. To understand who is responsible, we need to look at holder cohorts.

Holder Data Confirms the XRP Bounce Is Being Used to Exit, Not Accumulate

HODL Waves group XRP wallets based on how long they have held their coins. This helps identify which investor groups are buying or selling.

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The most striking shift appeared in the 24-hour holder cohort.

On February 6, this group controlled about 1% of XRP’s circulating supply. Within days, that share collapsed to roughly 0.09%. That represents a decline of more than 90%.

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Speculative Holders Bought The Top?
Speculative Holders Bought The Top?: Glassnode

These were highly reactive traders who entered during volatility and rushed to exit during the rebound.

Selling was not limited to this group.

The 1-month to 3-month cohort, which accumulated heavily in January when XRP traded near $2.07, has also been reducing exposure. Their share of supply fell from around 14.48% in mid-January to about 9.48% recently. That is a decline of roughly 35%.

Mid-Term XRP Holders Selling
Mid-Term XRP Holders Selling: Glassnode

These holders remain underwater. Instead of waiting for a full recovery, they are using rallies to minimize losses. Together, these two cohorts explain why SOPR has remained depressed for a long time now.

Short-term traders are exiting failed trades. Medium-term holders are cutting losing positions.

This behavior is typical of distribution phases, not early bull markets. And it directly impacts price structure.

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Cost Basis Data Shows Why $1.44–$1.54 Is a Wall for the XRP Price

Cost basis heat maps show where large groups of investors bought their coins. These zones often become resistance when the price returns to them.

For XRP, the strongest near-term cluster sits between $1.42 and $1.44. More than 660 million XRP were accumulated in this range. This creates a powerful sell zone.

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Key Sell Wall
Key Sell Wall: Glassnode

When the price approaches this area, many holders reach break-even. After weeks of losses, they chose to exit.

Above this cluster lies the $1.54 level, which aligns with EMA resistance. Together, these zones form a barrier that XRP has repeatedly failed to clear. Each time the XRP price rallies into this region, selling intensifies. This is consistent with the distribution seen in SOPR and HODL Waves.

XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

If XRP fails again near $1.44, downside risk increases. A rejection could send the price back toward $1.23 and possibly $1.12, the recent low. That would represent a decline of more than 20% from current levels.

Only a sustained break above $1.54, supported by improving profitability and reduced selling, would change this XRP price structure.

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Crypto Markets Dip as Oil Spikes Amid Iran Conflict

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BTC Chart

Bitcoin is holding around $71,000, while ETH and SOL are down 3%.

Crypto markets dipped on Thursday, reversing some of the previous day’s gains as investors turned cautious again following a reported attack by Iran on an oil tanker.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $71,000, down 3.5% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, ETH and SOL fell 4% to about $2,060 and $88, respectively, and BNB is down 2% on the day.

BTC Chart
BTC Chart

The overall crypto market capitalization declined by 3% to $2.48 trillion, according to Coingecko.

U.S. crude oil (WTI) spiked above $79 after Iran claimed that it attacked an American oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. WTI is up more than 17% this week to its highest level since January 2025. Investor sentiment was also dampened by reports that the conflict could last longer than previously expected. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slipped by around 1%, while gold and silver posted modest losses as the dollar strengthened.

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Almost all of the Top 100 digital assets posted losses over the last 24 hours.

Today’s top gainer is OKB, the native token of the OKX crypto exchange, which surged more than 20% after the company disclosed an investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at a $25 billion valuation.

Memecoins DOGE and PEPE are the biggest losers, plunging 9%.

Around 99,000 leveraged traders were liquidated for $322 million in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Bitcoin accounted for $120 million, while ETH positions made up $90 million.

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Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) pulled in another $461 million on Tuesday, marking a third day of gains. This brings inflows to nearly $2 billion since last week.

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Interoperability Is ‘Essential’ for Digital Assets to Reach Their Full Potential: DTCC

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Interoperability Is 'Essential' for Digital Assets to Reach Their Full Potential: DTCC

A new report from DTCC, Clearstream, Euroclear, and the Boston Consulting Group advocates for interoperable infrastructure across blockchain and traditional ledgers.

A report published by The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), Clearstream, Euroclear, and the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) presents a new framework for interoperability, with the aim of enabling “the safe and scalable adoption” of digital assets.

The joint report, published on Wednesday, March 4, argues that interoperability is key for cryptocurrencies to “achieve their full potential” in traditional capital markets. It emphasizes the need for open, neutral, and reliable infrastructure to support the integration of what it refers to as “digital asset securities,” or DAS, into mainstream finance.

In unpacking the current state of blockchain interoperability, the report highlights the problem of fragmentation across public and permissioned blockchains as Layer 1 and Layer 2 chains continue to proliferate.

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“This diversity is widening because spinning up new chains keeps getting easier: modular stacks and ‘rollup-as-a-service’ providers allow institutions to launch bespoke L2s with configurable data availability, privacy, and permissions in weeks rather than years,” the report states.

The research also highlights regulatory fragmentation globally, arguing that this adds to the “structural inefficiencies” of implementing blockchain in traditional capital markets.

“The operating model is evolving into a network-of-networks, with standards, gateways, and regulated service providers linking on-chain objects to off-chain finance,” the report reads.

The proposed framework also argues that to integrate digital assets into TradFi systems, interoperability is needed not only between blockchain networks, but between L1s and L2s, traditional bank ledgers, and Central Securities Depository ledgers (CSDs ledgers). The report reads:

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“interoperability can be defined as ‘the ability to exchange assets across ledgers – DLT and traditional – while preserving the asset’s integrity, ownership rights and lifecycle, with full legal and regulatory compliance”

In December, DTCC received clearance from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to pilot tokenized versions of securities it already holds, and later that month, it announced the tokenization pilot would use institution-focused Layer 1 Canton.

DTCC, Clearstream, and Euroclear are key players in post-trade services, offering settlement and custody solutions for securities across global markets.

This initiative aligns with other industry efforts, such as Intercontinental Echange’s strategic investment into OKX, as The Defiant reported earlier today.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.

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Crypto Crime Hits Record $154 Billion as Sanctioned States Turn to Blockchain

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the-defiant

Funds flowing to sanctioned entities jumped 694% year over year, making sanctions evasion the fastest-growing category of crypto crime.

Illicit cryptocurrency activity surged to a record $154 billion in 2025, driven largely by a sharp increase in sanctions evasion by nation-states using blockchain networks, according to a new report from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.

The report finds that funds flowing to sanctioned entities jumped 694% year over year, making sanctions evasion the fastest-growing category of crypto crime.

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But even excluding sanctioned activity, 2025 would still mark a record year for illicit on-chain transactions as criminal activity rose across most categories, Chainalysis said.

Despite the surge in illicit volumes, crypto crime still represents less than 1% of total crypto transaction activity, the report notes, underscoring how criminal use remains small relative to the broader ecosystem.

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Nation-States Move On-Chain

The most striking development is the growing involvement of governments and state-aligned actors in crypto crime infrastructure.

Chainalysis says sanctioned jurisdictions increasingly use digital assets to bypass financial restrictions and move funds globally. Russia, for example, launched a ruble-backed token called A7A5, which transacted over $93 billion in less than a year and was used to facilitate sanctions evasion.

Meanwhile, North Korea remained the most prolific state-linked hacking group, stealing roughly $2 billion in crypto during 2025, including a nearly $1.5 billion exploit of the Bybit exchange, the largest digital asset theft on record.

Iranian networks have also increasingly used crypto to facilitate oil sales, arms procurement, and money laundering, moving more than $2 billion through wallets tied to sanctioned entities, according to the report.

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Together, these trends signal a shift in the crypto crime landscape from isolated cybercriminals to state-aligned financial ecosystems operating on-chain.

Stablecoins Dominate Illicit Transactions

Stablecoins have become the primary vehicle for illicit crypto activity.

According to Chainalysis, 84% of illicit crypto transaction volume now involves stablecoins, reflecting their growing role across the broader crypto economy due to their price stability and cross-border usability.

The shift mirrors the wider market, where stablecoins increasingly serve as the core settlement asset for trading, payments, and international transfers.

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Chinese Laundering Networks Expand Rapidly

Another key finding is the rise of Chinese-language money laundering networks (CMLNs), which have emerged as a central hub in the global crypto crime ecosystem.

These networks provide “laundering-as-a-service” infrastructure, processing funds from scams, hacks, and sanctions-related activity. Chainalysis estimates they now account for about 20% of known illicit crypto laundering flows, handling billions of dollars annually.

The networks operate through a variety of mechanisms—including money mule networks, informal over-the-counter brokers, gambling platforms, and discounted “Black U” markets for illicit stablecoins—often coordinating activity through Telegram marketplaces.

Scams Become Industrialized

Fraud remains one of the largest categories of crypto crime. Chainalysis estimates scammers received at least $14 billion in crypto in 2025, with the figure potentially exceeding $17 billion as additional illicit addresses are identified.

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Impersonation scams surged the fastest, rising more than 1,400% year over year, as criminals increasingly use AI tools and phishing-as-a-service infrastructure to scale attacks.

These operations have become highly professionalized, with separate vendors providing phishing kits, victim databases, messaging tools, and laundering services.

A More Professionalized Illicit Ecosystem

Taken together, the findings point to a crypto crime landscape that is becoming more structured and industrialized.

State actors, organized crime groups, and specialized service providers now operate large-scale on-chain infrastructure, offering everything from laundering services to cyberattack tools.

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While blockchain transparency still allows investigators to trace many of these activities, Chainalysis warns that the increasing intersection of geopolitics, cybercrime, and crypto finance raises the stakes for regulators and law enforcement.

“On-chain illicit activity is increasingly interwoven with sophisticated, state-aligned ecosystems that exploit crypto’s global reach,” the report notes, highlighting how crypto is reshaping the financial infrastructure used by both criminals and sanctioned states

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KuCoin launches $1M futures airdrop to reward traders holding new listings

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KuCoin
KuCoin
  • KuCoin launches a $1 million USDT airdrop for new futures listings.
  • Rewards based on time in market, not trading speed or volume.
  • Aims to boost early liquidity in altcoin futures markets.

Crypto exchange KuCoin is rolling out a $1 million airdrop designed to reward traders who hold positions in newly listed futures contracts for longer periods, part of a broader push to stabilize early trading activity around new tokens.

The campaign, titled “Trade New Futures & Share 1M Airdrop,” departs from the quick‑profit competitions typical of crypto trading promotions.

Instead of rewarding high-frequency or large-volume trades, KuCoin will distribute rewards based on how long traders keep their positions open and the size of their exposure.

By measuring “time in market,” the exchange hopes to dampen the speculative surges that often accompany new listings, periods marked by fast price swings and fleeting liquidity.

Officials said the idea is to encourage steadier participation and help new markets mature with fewer distortions from short-term event-driven trading.

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The program will allocate its 1 million USDT prize pool over an hourly accrual system, giving consistent participants a share of the rewards while nudging traders toward more deliberate strategies.

Push to broaden altcoin derivatives base

The move comes as KuCoin continues to expand its share of the altcoin futures segment, a space where it already ranks among the top two platforms globally, according to CryptoQuant’s 2025 Annual Exchange Leader Report.

The exchange’s data show that trading in “long-tail” altcoins and the top eight digital assets accounts for more than half of its perpetual futures activity.

Analysts say the latest initiative could help KuCoin deepen liquidity in lesser-traded markets, an area where smaller projects often struggle to sustain stable order books after listing.

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By rewarding duration rather than volume, the exchange is betting that traders will be more willing to provide early liquidity to new pairs without fear of heavy early losses triggered by bots or flash volatility.

Founded in 2017, KuCoin says it now serves more than 40 million users worldwide and continues to expand its regulated footprint, with recent licenses in Austria and Australia.

The exchange, which offers spot, futures, and Web3 wallet services, has sought to differentiate itself by leaning into altcoin markets, a niche that remains one of the most competitive arenas in global crypto trading.

The airdrop initiative, available through KuCoin’s campaign page, runs as part of that strategy, aligning trader incentives with the platform’s bid to make new listings more liquid, transparent, and less dominated by short-term speculation.

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Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Dips on New Global AI Chip Export Restrictions

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NVDA Stock Card

Key Highlights

  • The Trump White House is preparing export regulations that would mandate federal approval for AI chip sales to countries across the globe, extending current limitations worldwide.
  • Orders exceeding 1,000 Nvidia GB300 GPUs would undergo government review; installations beyond 200,000 units would need host nation approval.
  • Nvidia has discontinued H200 chip manufacturing for the Chinese market at TSMC, redirecting production resources to its forthcoming Vera Rubin chips.
  • CFO Colette Kress revealed that Nvidia has recorded no revenue from China sales even with US authorization for certain H200 shipments.
  • Jensen Huang indicated Nvidia’s $30 billion OpenAI investment could be its final one, anticipating the AI company’s public offering.

Nvidia $NVDA declined approximately 1.7% on Thursday following back-to-back news developments — both presenting challenges for the semiconductor giant.


NVDA Stock Card
NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

A Bloomberg report revealed the Trump administration is working on new export regulations requiring federal government authorization for AI chip transactions with nearly all nations globally. The news pushed NVDA alongside $AMD, which fell roughly 2%, into negative territory during afternoon sessions.

The planned regulations would transform existing controls — presently applicable to approximately 40 nations — into a comprehensive worldwide licensing system. According to the proposal, any order containing up to 1,000 of Nvidia’s GB300 GPUs would enter a review pipeline, with certain exemption possibilities available.

Bulk purchases face heightened examination. Installations surpassing 200,000 GB300 units controlled by a single entity within one nation would mandate involvement from that country’s government in the authorization process.

Washington would only authorize such massive exports to partner nations that provide security guarantees and commit to investing in US-based AI infrastructure — although the proposal doesn’t define exact investment thresholds.

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These regulations don’t constitute an outright prohibition, but they would grant the US Commerce Department extensive authority over AI chip distribution that powers platforms like ChatGPT and Gemini.

Chinese Market Revenue Remains at Zero

In a separate Financial Times report, Nvidia has discreetly halted H200 chip manufacturing for China at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., redirecting that production capability toward its next-generation Vera Rubin chip family.

The two product lines employ distinct technologies and manufacturing processes — H200 utilizes CoWoS-S packaging alongside earlier high-bandwidth memory, whereas Vera Rubin leverages CoWoS-L with the advanced HBM4 specification — meaning the production reallocation doesn’t directly impact availability of either product line.

Nvidia’s Chinese operations have remained in uncertainty for several months. The Trump administration granted H200 export approval to China last December, stipulating the US government receive a 25% revenue share. Previously, Nvidia had been distributing the less powerful H20 chip throughout China — until the administration prohibited those sales last April.

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Despite securing federal approval, transactions haven’t materialized. During last week’s quarterly earnings discussion, CFO Colette Kress disclosed that Nvidia has “yet to generate any revenue” from the Chinese market and remains uncertain whether Beijing will permit any chip imports.

Domestic Chinese Competitors Advancing

Kress highlighted an additional challenge: multiple recent public offerings from Chinese semiconductor firms that she noted “have the potential to disrupt the structure of the global AI industry over the long term.” Nvidia maintains it will continue dialogue with both Washington and Beijing.

Regarding OpenAI developments, CEO Jensen Huang stated this week that Nvidia’s $30 billion stake in OpenAI’s $110 billion funding round completed in late February “might be the last time” the chipmaker backs the AI firm, as he anticipates OpenAI will pursue a public listing in the near future. Huang further noted that a previously considered $100 billion investment arrangement with OpenAI is “not in the cards.”

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SoFi Selects BitGo to Launch Bank-Issued Stablecoin SoFiUSD

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SoFi Selects BitGo to Launch Bank-Issued Stablecoin SoFiUSD

SoFi Technologies has selected digital asset custodian BitGo to support the rollout of its bank-issued stablecoin, the latest sign of growing momentum around federally regulated stablecoins for payments and settlements.

Under the partnership, BitGo will provide stablecoin infrastructure services for SoFiUSD, a US dollar-pegged token issued by SoFi Bank, a nationally chartered and insured depository institution, the companies disclosed Thursday. 

The arrangement will run through BitGo’s “stablecoin-as-a-service” platform, which will support the issuance of SoFiUSD and help connect the token with payment providers, market participants and cryptocurrency exchanges.

SoFi said SoFiUSD is the first stablecoin issued by a US nationally chartered and insured deposit bank on a public, permissionless blockchain.

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SoFi Technologies is a publicly traded Nasdaq-listed digital finance company that offers lending, banking and investment products to nearly 14 million members. The company entered the digital asset market in 2019 by adding cryptocurrency trading through its SoFi Invest platform and later secured a national bank charter after acquiring Golden Pacific Bancorp in 2022, establishing SoFi Bank.

Shares of SoFi Technologies (SOFI) rallied following the Thursday announcement. Source: Yahoo Finance

Related: Crypto’s 2026 investment playbook: Bitcoin, stablecoin infrastructure, tokenized assets

US companies race to build stablecoin infrastructure

SoFi’s push into the stablecoin market comes amid a broader shift toward regulated digital dollar infrastructure in the United States, following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which establishes a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins and their issuers.

Against this backdrop, financial technology companies are expanding the infrastructure needed to support stablecoin payments and settlement.

As reported by Cointelegraph, payment operations platform Modern Treasury recently launched an integrated payment service that supports stablecoin rails alongside traditional banking infrastructure. The system enables businesses to settle transactions using stablecoins in addition to conventional payment methods such as ACH transfers and wire payments.

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The platform currently supports several dollar-pegged tokens, including USDC (USDC), Global Dollar (USDG) and Pax Dollar (USDP).

Separately, digital asset infrastructure company Stablecore recently joined the Jack Henry Fintech Integration Network, which connects nearly 1,700 financial institutions. The integration enables banks and credit unions on the network to offer stablecoin and tokenized-asset services through their existing banking platforms.

Related: Wall Street’s crypto debate is over as banks go all-in on BTC, stablecoins, tokenized cash

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