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XRP price prediction ahead of January US CPI report today

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XRP price prediction ahead of January US CPI report today - 1

XRP price is hovering near $1.35 as markets closely watch the January U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later today.

Summary

  • Markets expect January U.S. CPI to show sticky inflation, with core prices remaining elevated, a result that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts and pressure crypto assets.
  • XRP is trading near $1.35, below its 50-day SMA around $1.84, with the broader trend still bearish on the daily chart.
  • Key support sits at $1.30 and $1.20, while resistance stands at $1.40 and the $1.80–$1.85 region; CPI data could determine the next breakout or breakdown.

Economists expect headline inflation to tick slightly higher on a month-over-month basis. Annual inflation is projected to land in the 2.5% range. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is also expected to show sticky price pressures.

If CPI comes in hotter than expected, it could reduce the chances of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. That would likely strengthen the U.S. dollar and weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like the Ripple token (XRP).

A softer-than-expected print, however, could boost expectations of monetary easing and trigger a relief rally across crypto markets.

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XRP price prediction and key levels

XRP is currently trading around $1.35, down roughly 0.6% on the day, according to the daily price chart.

XRP price prediction ahead of January US CPI report today - 1
XRP price analysis | Crypto.News

The chart shows a clear downtrend since early January. XRP failed to hold above the $2.20–$2.30 region and has printed a series of lower highs and lower lows. The price is trading well below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which sits near $1.84, signaling continued bearish momentum.

The recent sharp sell-off toward the $1.20 zone was followed by a brief rebound, but upside momentum has faded. Candles are now compressing near the $1.35 level, suggesting indecision ahead of the CPI release.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is currently around -0.12, remaining in negative territory. This indicates capital outflows and weak buying pressure, reinforcing the bearish bias.

For the XRP price, immediate support lies near $1.30, followed by the recent swing low around $1.20. A break below $1.20 could open the door toward the psychological $1.00 level.

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On the upside, initial resistance sits near $1.40, with stronger resistance at the 50-day SMA around $1.84.

A hotter CPI reading could push XRP below $1.30 and retest $1.20. A softer inflation print may spark a rebound toward $1.40 and potentially $1.60 in the short term.

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Crypto World

US Bitcoin Reserve Has No Purchase Plans

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US Bitcoin Reserve Has No Purchase Plans

One year ago, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic crypto stockpile. Now, one year later, its value has decreased by billions.

At the beginning of his administration, Trump formed a working group to study how the government could best implement and regulate crypto. This included the Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto reserves.

Much has happened since. The first year of the Trump administration brought a number of macroeconomic and policy changes. Some of these, like new, friendly regulations from Washington, have been good for crypto. Others, like punitive tariffs and geopolitical escalation, have not.

Now the US’ crypto stockpile sits, with its token reserves largely unchanged since its establishment.

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Little change in Trump’s crypto stockpile

On March 6, Trump formed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile by executive order.

The Bitcoin reserve would comprise solely that asset, while the crypto stockpile would be a diverse collection of altcoins. Ahead of the executive order, Trump said that it would include XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA).

Source: Donald Trump

Both would “not acquire additional assets for the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.”

The order effectively consolidated the forfeited assets, which at the time were spread across many different federal regulatory and law enforcement agencies. According to the order, it would also create an opportunity for the government to capitalize on the seized crypto.

“Taking affirmative steps to centralize ownership, control, and management of these assets within the Federal government will ensure proper oversight, accurate tracking, and a cohesive approach to managing the government’s cryptocurrency holdings,” the order stated.

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The government does not publish the exact details of either the Bitcoin reserve or the crypto asset stockpile, but blockchain analysis firm Arkham Research has identified several blockchain wallets associated with the US government.

At publishing time, government crypto holdings are valued at $22,393,867,000, some $22 billion of which alone is Bitcoin. Other major holdings are stablecoin USDC (USDC), Ether (ETH), Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) and BNB (BNB).

Data collected on March 4.

How much these assets constitute the formal stockpile itself, or how and whether they were moved, is still not public information. But the dollar value has fallen significantly. According to Arkham, the US’ cumulative holdings were worth over $30 billion when Trump signed the order. At publishing time, they are worth $22 billion, a 26% decrease.

The value of the US’ crypto portfolio has fallen significantly since March 2025. Source: Arkham

The White House appears unshaken by this. Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai said regarding the recent price slump, “Volatility in a free market in which the government does not set prices is not going to change the Trump administration’s commitment to ensuring American dominance in cryptocurrency and other cutting-edge technologies of the future.”

Bitcoin token balance unchanged with no plans to buy

Despite hopes from Bitcoin maximalists that the US would start buying Bitcoin, the balance remains unchanged. Since the executive order, the US government has held 328,272 BTC.

US BTC holdings have remained flat since the reserve was established: Source: Arkham

The token balance of Ether, the next top asset by holdings in the US government’s portfolio, dropped off following the executive order, suggesting either an exchange or transfer. But after April 2025, the token balance stayed much the same.

Ether token balance. Source: Arkham

Tether’s USDt (USDT), the largest stablecoin by token balance in the US’ portfolio, saw a significant jump in May 2025 of over 200 million tokens, before decreasing to pre-March 2026 levels.

USDT token balance. Source: Arkham

These buying and selling patterns are not particularly clear. As noted above, the government makes no public disclosures about volumes.

While the new crypto reserve strategy did not completely preclude the government from buying Bitcoin, it required any purchases to be done in a budget-neutral fashion. AI and crypto czar David Sacks said last year, “It cannot add to the deficit, it cannot add to the debt, it cannot tax the American people.”

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“It won’t cost the taxpayer dimes, but if the secretaries can figure out how to accumulate more bitcoin without costing taxpayers anything, then they are authorized to do that.”

One year on, it isn’t clear how or whether the administration has developed such a strategy.

Jason Yanowitz, co-founder of crypto firm Blockworks, told the BBC last year that a crypto stockpile made of several different assets could negatively impact markets. “Without a clear framework, we risk arbitrary asset selections, which would distort the markets and drive a loss of public trust.”

“Ensuring transparency through independent audits and public reporting is crucial for fostering innovation instead of favouritism,” he said.

The idea of Bitcoin reserves, be they at the state or corporate level, grew last year following the success of software company-cum-Bitcoin investment vehicle Strategy. The narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold made holding the asset an attractive prospect for government budgets.

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According to data from tracking site BitcoinTreasuries.net, 10 countries hold Bitcoin, including the US, China, Ukraine, El Salvador, the United Kingdom and North Korea.

At the corporate level, analysts are expecting consolidation as the bear market continues. Wojciech Kaszycki, chief strategy officer of crypto infrastructure and treasury company BTCS, previously told Cointelegraph that companies with Bitcoin treasuries below net asset value will be acquired by operating businesses.

Bitcoin reserves are still a new idea that has yet to be tested in the depths of crypto winter.

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