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XRP Sees Impressive Recovery Wick With Massive 37% Price Surge: Here’s Why

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XRP Sees Impressive Recovery Wick With Massive 37% Price Surge: Here's Why


Ripple’s token has also surpassed BNB in terms of market cap after its sublime surge.

It was just hours ago, less than a day, when we wrote about XRP’s spectacular collapse as the asset plummeted to $1.11 for the first time since before the US presidential elections at the end of 2024.

This meant that it had shed over 50% of its value in a month as it peaked at $2.40 on January 6. Oh, how the landscape in crypto can change in hours sometimes, not even days or weeks.

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What happened with XRP’s price since that local low has been nothing short of amazing. There were some signs about a potential rebound, such as the plummeting RSI metric, but even the most vocal XRP bulls were probably surprised by the extent of the rally.

After all, the cross-border token skyrocketed by 37% in about 18 hours – going from the aforementioned low to $1.54 before it faced some resistance and now trades around $1.50. This still represents a 34% surge in less than a day.

Santiment also weighed in on the token’s performance. The analysts acknowledged XRP’s rise in terms of market cap as well, as it now sits above BNB as the fourth-largest crypto asset.

They blamed the massive price pump in the past several hours on the overall network stability and growing activity on the XRP Ledger. Moreover, they showcased a chart indicating that Ripple whales went on an accumulation spree, with almost 1,400 separate $100K+ whale transactions (the highest in four months).

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The ETF behavior will also be interesting to compare, but we would need to verify the data at the end of the trading day in the US. Preliminary data on SoSoValue shows a minor net inflow even for yesterday, but there’s no official confirmation as of yet, which is rather surprising.

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Crypto World

Current BTC Price Action Shows Dramatic Underperformance: Analyst

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving

The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.

Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.

BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
A comparison of Bitcoin’s price action in previous halving cycles. Source: Alex Thorn

“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”

The decreasing volatility in each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that BTC’s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.

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The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘still too early’ to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst

Critics say current cycle performance ignores the premature all-time high before 2024’s halving

BTC reached what was then the all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024 — one month before the April 2024 halving.

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for the price pump.

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
The price of BTC hit an all-time high before the April 2024 halving. Source: TradingView

This historic anomaly of BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving skewed the current cycle’s price performance, critics of Thorn’s analysis said.

Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe, as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.

Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst.

However, Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity’s analysis noted.

In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC is close to bottoming out and that he expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026. 

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At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days, according to TradingView data.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt