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XRP Whale Inflows to Binance Decline as Selling Pressure Shows Signs of Easing

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • XRP inflows to Binance from wallets holding over 1M tokens have declined sharply since the 2025 peak.
  • On-chain data shows no extraordinary inflow spike, ruling out aggressive whale selling or profit-taking now.
  • The current XRP price drop is tied to leverage liquidations and broad market weakness, not whale distribution.
  • If Binance inflows stay low and demand holds, XRP could realistically revisit the $1.8 to $2.0 price range.

XRP exchange inflows to Binance have declined notably following the 2025 market peak, and on-chain data now points to reduced selling activity among large holders.

Transfers exceeding one million XRP dominated exchange inflow charts between 2021 and 2025, reflecting consistent participation from whale and institutional-scale addresses.

The recent pullback in these flows, despite a price retreat from the $3 region, suggests that major market participants are becoming less inclined to sell.

Whale Activity Shifts as Large-Scale XRP Transfers to Binance Drop

Historically, sharp spikes in the 100K–1M XRP and 1M+ XRP inflow categories have preceded major market downturns.

These surges typically signal that large holders are moving assets to exchanges ahead of selling. However, no such extraordinary spike currently appears at the far right of the inflow chart. This absence is a meaningful contrast to prior bear market conditions.

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CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA noted that the post-ETF approval period coincides with this drop in whale inflows. The reduced exchange activity suggests whales may be holding positions rather than distributing.

That behavioral shift stands out, especially given XRP’s recent price correction. It points to a market structure that differs from previous cycles.

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The current price decline appears linked more to leverage liquidations and broader market weakness than to deliberate whale selling. In past severe downturns, exchange inflows rose aggressively as investors rushed to exit positions.

That pattern is not repeating now. The on-chain picture, therefore, does not support the narrative of widespread profit-taking at this stage.

Between 2021 and 2025, large-scale inflows remained consistently elevated, showing that whales actively used Binance as a distribution venue. The recent reversal of that trend is therefore notable.

It reflects a measurable change in behavior among the market’s largest participants. Whether this shift sustains depends on whether inflows stay suppressed in the weeks ahead.

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Subdued Binance Inflows Could Reduce Selling Supply and Support XRP Price

PelinayPA stated in the analysis: “If Binance inflows remain subdued, the available selling supply could continue to decrease. Combined with stronger demand, this would make it easier for XRP to revisit the $1.8–$2.0 range.”

That projection rests on the assumption that the current low-inflow environment holds. Any renewed surge in the 1M+ XRP category would challenge that outlook.

XRP’s price stood at $1.11 at the time of writing, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1,754,706,743. The asset recorded a 5.12% decline over the past 24 hours and an 8.28% drop over the prior seven days. Despite these figures, the on-chain data does not yet reflect panic-driven selling from major holders.

Reduced exchange supply, when paired with sustained or growing demand, typically creates favorable conditions for price recovery.

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The $1.8–$2.0 range cited in the analysis represents a plausible near-term target if inflows remain low. However, this structure remains sensitive to any sharp reversal in whale behavior. Traders and analysts will likely continue monitoring inflow trends closely.

As long as no renewed surge emerges in the 1M+ XRP inflow category, the current market structure may remain constructive. The broader market environment will also play a role in whether that structure holds.

For now, the declining inflow trend offers a data-backed case for cautious optimism. The next few weeks will clarify whether whales maintain their current stance.

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South Korea eyes September launch for second phase of CBDC pilot: Report

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South Korea eyes September launch for second phase of CBDC pilot: Report

South Korea eyes September launch for second phase of CBDC pilot: Report

The Bank of Korea’s CBDC pilot will add two regional banks, new payment features and tests of government subsidy payments using tokenized bank deposits

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Bitcoin dips to $63,900 as markets weigh oil and lingering AI selloff

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BTC slips below $73,000 in continued sluggish trade

Bitcoin slipped to about $63,900 on Monday, down 1.3% on the day though still up 2% on the week, as crypto stayed caught between a war driving oil higher and the Chinese AI shock that hit chip stocks on Friday.

The board is red across the day. Ether eased 1.1% to $1,850, BNB fell 0.8% to $564, XRP slipped to $1.09 and dogecoin lost 1.4%. Hyperliquid’s HYPE remained the weakest of the majors, down 8% on the week to $60.

Brent crude climbed to a one-month high above $91 a barrel as U.S.-Iran strikes widened, reviving the inflation worry that this month’s soft U.S. price data had eased. Meanwhile, Asian chip stocks stayed under pressure from Friday’s selloff, with South Korea’s Kospi down 3.5%, though U.S. futures pointed higher.

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Why Protocols Need Strong Brands

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Why Protocols Need Strong Brands

Introduction

In the early days of decentralized finance (DeFi), success was largely determined by technical innovation. A protocol with lower fees, faster transactions, or a new yield mechanism could quickly capture attention. Today, the landscape has changed. Hundreds of protocols offer similar features, making technology alone insufficient to stand out.

The next competitive advantage isn’t just better code—it’s better branding.

A strong brand helps protocols build trust, inspire communities, attract developers, and create lasting value beyond token prices. In an industry where products can be forked overnight, a memorable identity is one of the few assets that cannot be easily copied.


Beyond Technology

Open-source development is one of blockchain’s greatest strengths, but it also creates an interesting challenge.

Innovative features can often be replicated within days or weeks. Competing protocols frequently launch similar products with only minor improvements.

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This means users are no longer choosing solely based on:

  • Lowest fees
  • Highest APY
  • Fastest transactions
  • Most liquidity

Instead, they increasingly ask:

  • Can I trust this protocol?
  • Does this team consistently deliver?
  • Is the community active?
  • Will this protocol still exist years from now?

These questions are answered by brand reputation as much as technical performance.


Trust Is the Ultimate Currency

Unlike traditional financial institutions, DeFi protocols usually operate without physical offices or customer service branches.

Users trust code—but they also trust people.

A strong brand communicates:

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  • Security
  • Transparency
  • Reliability
  • Professionalism
  • Long-term commitment

When markets become volatile, users tend to remain loyal to protocols they believe will continue to build rather than disappear in difficult conditions.

Brand trust becomes especially valuable during bear markets, when speculation fades, and only the most resilient projects retain active communities.


Community Is Built Around Identity

People rarely become emotionally attached to software.

They become attached to missions.

Successful crypto ecosystems create identities that users proudly support.

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Strong branding transforms users into:

  • Community advocates
  • Content creators
  • Governance participants
  • Long-term token holders
  • Ecosystem builders

Instead of simply using a protocol, they become part of something larger.

This emotional connection is difficult for competitors to replicate.


Developers Follow Strong Ecosystems

Developers often choose ecosystems based on more than technical documentation.

They look for:

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  • Active communities
  • Clear vision
  • Strong leadership
  • Good reputation
  • Growth opportunities

A recognizable brand signals stability and attracts builders who want their applications to thrive alongside a respected ecosystem.

Every new application strengthens the network, creating positive feedback that benefits everyone involved.


Branding Creates Competitive Moats

Most blockchain features can eventually be copied.

Brands cannot.

Think about traditional technology companies.

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Many competitors can produce similar hardware or software, yet the strongest brands continue leading because consumers recognize their identity and trust their products.

The same principle applies in crypto.

A protocol’s logo, voice, educational content, design language, governance culture, and community experience collectively form a competitive moat that is far harder to duplicate than code.


Strong Brands Reduce User Friction

Crypto remains complex for many newcomers.

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Wallets, gas fees, bridges, staking, and governance can feel intimidating.

A polished brand simplifies this experience by creating consistency across:

  • Website
  • Documentation
  • Wallet integrations
  • Social media
  • Community channels
  • Educational materials

Consistency reduces confusion and makes users more comfortable engaging with the protocol.

The easier users understand a project, the more likely they are to stay.


Partnerships Begin with Reputation

Institutional investors, infrastructure providers, exchanges, and enterprise partners all evaluate reputation before collaborating.

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A professional brand demonstrates:

  • Clear communication
  • Reliable execution
  • Consistent messaging
  • Community engagement
  • Strategic vision

Strong branding often opens doors before technical discussions even begin.

Reputation accelerates partnerships.


Branding Extends Beyond Marketing

Many people mistake branding for logos or color palettes.

True branding encompasses every interaction users have with a protocol.

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It includes:

  • Product quality
  • Customer support
  • Governance transparency
  • Security practices
  • Educational resources
  • Community culture
  • Communication style
  • Response during crises

Every touchpoint either strengthens or weakens the brand.

Marketing may attract attention, but branding determines whether users remain.


The Best Protocols Tell a Story

Humans remember stories better than technical specifications.

Instead of simply promoting features, successful protocols communicate:

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  • Why they exist
  • What problem do they solve
  • Who they serve
  • What future do they envision

A compelling narrative gives people something meaningful to support.

When users understand a protocol’s mission, they become advocates rather than just customers.


Looking Ahead

As the blockchain industry matures, technical innovation will remain essential—but it will increasingly become the minimum requirement rather than the deciding factor.

Protocols that combine robust infrastructure with trusted brands, vibrant communities, and clear narratives are more likely to attract users, developers, and long-term partners.

The future of Web3 belongs not only to the protocols with the best technology but also to those that earn lasting trust and recognition. In an increasingly competitive ecosystem, code may launch a protocol, but a strong brand helps sustain it.

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Standard Chartered backed Anchorpoint set to launch HKDAP stablecoin: report

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Hong Kong launches e-HKD pilot for after hours derivatives margin payments

Standard Chartered-backed Anchorpoint has prepared to launch its Hong Kong dollar stablecoin HKDAP, with a joint announcement expected before the end of July, according to local media.

Summary

  • Standard Chartered and Anchorpoint are expected to announce the launch of the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin HKDAP within the next two weeks, according to local media.
  • HKDAP received one of Hong Kong’s first stablecoin issuer licenses in April and will be backed one to one by Hong Kong dollar reserves.
  • The stablecoin completed a successful Ethereum mainnet transfer test in May ahead of its planned public rollout.

According to local media citing market sources, Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) and Anchorpoint Financial Technology are expected to announce the rollout of HKDAP, a Hong Kong dollar-pegged stablecoin, within the next two weeks. 

The report said the launch will come through Anchorpoint, one of the first two companies to receive a stablecoin issuer license from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) in April.

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If confirmed, the announcement would move the project from regulatory approval into public issuance after months of technical preparation under Hong Kong’s stablecoin framework.

HKDAP moves toward issuance

Anchorpoint is a joint venture backed by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), HKT and Animoca Brands. When the HKMA granted its first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses in April, Anchorpoint said it planned to begin issuing HKDAP in phases during the second quarter of 2026 under Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance.

According to Anchorpoint’s earlier announcement, every HKDAP token will be backed one-to-one by high-quality Hong Kong dollar reserves held in segregated accounts, following the reserve and disclosure requirements laid out by the HKMA for fiat-referenced stablecoins.

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Earlier company statements also said HKDAP would follow a business-to-business-to-consumer (B2B2C) rollout model before expanding to wider use.

Ethereum testing completed before launch

The expected launch follows a successful Ethereum mainnet transfer test completed in May involving Anchorpoint, licensed digital asset platform OSL Group, and PantherTrade, a trading platform backed by Futu Holdings.

According to participants in the test, the transaction demonstrated that HKDAP could be issued, transferred, and settled on Ethereum’s public blockchain using production-ready infrastructure rather than a sandbox environment. A spokesperson involved in the trial said the transfer validated both the technical architecture and the compliance framework ahead of commercial issuance.

Anchorpoint has previously said deploying HKDAP on Ethereum will allow interoperability with existing wallets, exchanges, and decentralized finance applications while maintaining regulatory oversight under Hong Kong’s licensing regime.

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The stablecoin project forms part of Hong Kong’s effort to establish a regulated digital payment asset tied to the Hong Kong dollar as jurisdictions across Asia continue developing licensed stablecoin frameworks. The HKMA issued its first stablecoin issuer licenses to Anchorpoint and HSBC in April under rules requiring full reserve backing, segregated customer assets and ongoing regulatory supervision.

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SpaceX Delays Starship Flight 13 After Raptor 3 Engine Abort, SPCX Stock Slides

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SpaceX has rescheduled the 13th test flight of its Starship rocket to Thursday, July 23. A Raptor 3 engine ignition failure forced an automatic abort of the earlier attempt.

The setback triggered a fresh slide in SpaceX (SPCX) stock. The rocket will carry 20 V3 Starlink satellites for the first time.

SpaceX Delays Starship Flight 13 to Thursday

SpaceX confirmed the new launch window in a post on X on Monday.

SpaceX had aimed to fly earlier in the week, but several Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite during the countdown. The company has not detailed a root cause. The flight marks the second outing for the newer Starship V3 design. It will lift off from Starbase, Texas.

Starship will also deploy 20 functional V3 Starlink satellites for the first time. SpaceX needs a clean satellite deployment before the rocket can carry heavier commercial payloads.

SPCX Stock Slides Toward Its All-Time Low

SpaceX shares changed hands near $124 on Monday. That marked a drop of more than 5% in a day. The stock now sits close to its 52-week low of $122.12. It sits roughly 23% below its $135 IPO price.

SpaceX Stock Chart
SpaceX Stock Chart. Source: TradingView

The setback compounds a rough stretch for SpaceX investors. Shares fell below IPO price earlier this month. Short interest climbed sharply during an earlier stock crash, reportedly reaching 185 million shares, or 29% of the tradable float.

Crypto traders can react to the news outside normal market hours. Platforms built on the xStocks framework offer tokenized SpaceX shares backed one to one by SPCX. Other venues list leveraged tokens that amplify each move in either direction.

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What’s Next for SpaceX Investors

A clean flight Thursday could help SPCX claw back some losses. Evercore ISI still rates the stock Outperform with a $230 target. The firm argues the drop reflects profit-taking rather than weaker fundamentals.

However, another abort would deepen pressure ahead of August share unlocks. Q2 earnings, due in early August, will also trigger SpaceX’s first major share unlock since the IPO. The Nasdaq-100 inclusion drop already showed how sensitive shares are to news flow, even on a day with otherwise positive headlines.

Thursday’s launch window now carries outsized weight for SPCX holders. Meanwhile, a successful flight could steady sentiment ahead of earnings. A second abort would leave the stock searching for a floor near its all-time low.

The post SpaceX Delays Starship Flight 13 After Raptor 3 Engine Abort, SPCX Stock Slides appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Hyperliquid plans permissionless HIP 4 prediction market deployment

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Hyperliquid plans permissionless HIP 4 prediction market deployment

Hyperliquid has announced plans to introduce permissionless deployment for HIP-4 outcome markets, with the feature set to roll out on testnet before a later mainnet release.

Summary

  • Hyperliquid plans to introduce permissionless deployment for HIP 4 outcome markets, starting on testnet before a mainnet rollout.
  • Market deployers will need to stake 500,000 HYPE and can face slashing for incorrect or delayed market settlements.
  • The proposal follows HIP 4’s launch in May, with prediction markets generating about $100 million in trading volume during the first month.

Hyperliquid said in a Sunday Telegram announcement that the upgrade is intended to support the expansion of outcome markets, where the number of possible tradeable events is too large for validators alone to manage.

Under the proposed system, validators will vote on standardized outcome templates that define how markets should be structured. Those templates will be stored and enforced onchain, allowing anyone to deploy new markets using approved formats instead of requiring validator approval for every listing.

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Once a template is approved, deployers will create individual markets and will be responsible for defining and settling them according to the template’s rules. Hyperliquid said validator-created “canonical markets” will continue to exist but are expected to remain rare, with fewer than 10 such outcomes or questions deployed each year through validator votes.

Deployers face staking and settlement requirements

To participate, HIP-4 deployers will need to stake 500,000 HYPE. Hyperliquid said validators can partially or fully slash that stake if markets are poorly defined, are settled incorrectly, or remain unresolved for more than one week.

Similar to the network’s HIP-3 framework, the stake will remain locked for six months, and deployers must settle every outstanding market before they can withdraw it.

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Each deployer will initially receive capacity for 100 outcomes, equivalent to 200 outcome tokens. Multi-outcome markets will use more of that allocation, while settled markets will release capacity for future deployments. Hyperliquid also said it plans to introduce an auction system that will allow deployers to increase their allocation.

Market creators will be allowed to charge fees of up to 50% on their own markets. Hyperliquid noted that the proposal remains preliminary and could change after community feedback.

The latest proposal builds on Hyperliquid’s rollout of HIP-4 in May, when the network introduced prediction markets to its high-performance blockchain. According to Hyperliquid, the feature generated roughly $100 million in trading volume during its first month.

The update comes as Hyperliquid continues to gain attention across both decentralized and traditional finance. Earlier this month, Bitwise added HYPE to its Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) with an allocation of about 0.95%, placing the token alongside the largest crypto assets in a diversified index fund. 

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The inclusion followed Hyperliquid’s reported $1.34 trillion in trading volume and $320 million in revenue during the first half of 2026, according to Bitwise’s latest index update and previous reporting.

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Japanese logistics firm AZ COM Maruwa adopts JPYC for contractor payments

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Japanese logistics firm AZ COM Maruwa adopts JPYC for contractor payments

Japanese logistics firm AZ-COM Maruwa Holdings has announced plans to adopt the JPYC stablecoin for payments to about 2,300 business partners, in what is expected to become Japan’s first large-scale corporate use of a yen-denominated stablecoin.

Summary

  • AZ COM Maruwa plans to use JPYC to pay about 2,300 business partners, including truck drivers.
  • Faster and more frequent payments are expected as JPYC transactions do not carry transfer fees.
  • The move comes as Japan advances crypto reforms and stablecoin adoption for regulated financial services.

Japanese business daily Nikkei reported that the logistics company will use JPYC to pay transportation-related fees and compensation to individual contractors, including truck drivers. Because the stablecoin does not charge transfer fees, the company expects to process payments more quickly and more frequently than through conventional bank transfers.

Alongside the payment rollout, AZ-COM Maruwa is considering a partnership with JPYC Inc. and an investment of more than 1 billion Japanese yen, or about $6.2 million, according to the report. The companies have not disclosed a timeline for either proposal.

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AZ-COM Maruwa, a mid-sized logistics provider whose major customers include Amazon Japan, would become one of the first large corporations in the country to integrate a yen-backed stablecoin into routine business payments if the plan moves forward.

The proposed deployment comes as Japan continues reshaping its digital asset framework to accommodate institutional blockchain applications.

Earlier this month, Japan enacted amendments to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act that classify cryptocurrencies as financial products instead of payment instruments. As previously reported by crypto.news, the legislation also lays the legal groundwork for domestic crypto exchange-traded funds, introduces insider trading rules for digital assets and sets the stage for a separate crypto tax regime expected to take effect in 2028.

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Corporate interest in regulated blockchain payments has also been increasing. Japan’s SBI Holdings and the Solana Foundation recently partnered to establish SBI Solana Global, a venture focused on building onchain financial infrastructure in Japan. Their plans include supporting yen-denominated stablecoins, tokenized securities and institutional settlement services.

Within that regulatory environment, businesses have started exploring stablecoins as a payment tool rather than limiting their use to crypto trading.

“We will continue to advance the integration of logistics and commercial payment flows with JPYC,” Noritaka Okabe, founder and chief executive officer of JPYC Inc., said in a statement.

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Allbridge Pauses Protocol After $1.65M Exploit Drains Stablecoin Liquidity Pools

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Cross-chain stablecoin bridge, Allbridge Core, suffered a security exploit that resulted in losses of approximately $1.65 million, according to blockchain security firm PeckShield.

The firm said the attacker has already bridged the stolen funds from Solana to Ethereum.

Allbridge Responds

Allbridge confirmed experiencing a security incident and that the protocol has been paused as a precaution while the team investigates. The project also urged users with liquidity in affected pools to withdraw their funds immediately.

According to Allbridge, the exploit created a temporary positive arbitrage opportunity due to an imbalance in the affected liquidity pools. The team asked anyone who profited from the arbitrage to voluntarily return the funds, while adding that they would be used to compensate affected liquidity providers.

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Meanwhile, blockchain security firm Onchain Labs explained that the exploit began with a $1.12 million USDC flash loan obtained from Kamino on Solana. The attacker allegedly used rapid USDC and USDT swaps to manipulate Allbridge Core’s stablecoin pool ratios before withdrawing liquidity at distorted rates, repaying the flash loan within the same transaction, and extracting the funds. Onchain Labs added that the stolen assets were later moved through privacy protocols for mixing.

Allbridge has faced a similar attack before. In April 2023, the protocol lost around $573,000 in a flash loan exploit on BNB Chain. The attacker took advantage of a bug in the smart contract to manipulate token swap prices, which allowed them to steal about $289,900 in BUSD and $290,900 in USDT.

A String of Bridge Exploits

Cross-chain bridges remain a favorite target for hackers. In April, Syndicate Labs lost about $330,000 worth of SYND tokens after a leaked private key let an attacker take control of its Commons bridge contracts.

A month later, the Verus-Ethereum bridge was exploited for more than $11 million because one of its contracts failed to validate transactions properly, although most of the funds were later returned.

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In June, the Ethereum Layer 2 network Taiko told users to pull their assets from its bridges after attackers stole $1.7 million from one of its bridge protocols.

The post Allbridge Pauses Protocol After $1.65M Exploit Drains Stablecoin Liquidity Pools appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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South Korea flags 40 cases of crypto market manipulation since 2024

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South Korea’s DAXA targets crypto API keys after 30% warning

South Korean financial authorities investigated more than 40 cases of unfair crypto trading during the first two years of the Virtual Asset User Protection Act, according to Financial Services Commission Chair Lee Eog-won.

Summary

  • Korean regulators investigated over 40 unfair crypto trading cases during the law’s first two years.
  • Authorities referred more than 30 cases for investigation and identified 25 suspects linked to misconduct.
  • Regulators plan stronger AI-based surveillance as South Korea expands oversight of high-risk crypto market activity.

The cases covered suspected market manipulation and other fraudulent trading activity.

Authorities reported or referred more than 30 cases to investigative agencies and identified 25 suspects. Lee said average unlawful gains reached about 1.4 billion Korean won, or roughly $940,000, per case. He published the figures as the law marked two years since taking effect in July 2024.

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“Today marks the second anniversary of the enactment of the Virtual Asset User Protection Act,” Lee wrote. 

He said the law brought the crypto market into a formal legal framework and created a system aimed at protecting users.

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Regulators plan wider market surveillance

The Virtual Asset User Protection Act sets rules for how virtual asset service providers handle customer funds and assets. It requires providers to separate customer holdings from company assets and keep user deposits with banks. The law also gives regulators powers to inspect service providers and act against practices such as insider trading, wash trading and market manipulation.

South Korea has used those powers in several recent cases. As crypto.news reported earlier this month, the FSC referred two suspected market manipulation cases to prosecutors. One case involved a trader accused of buying close to half of a token’s circulating supply before selling into rising demand. The regulator warned users about sharp price and volume moves linked to low-liquidity tokens.

The latest two-year figures show that enforcement has moved beyond individual cases. The FSC said authorities have targeted short-term price manipulation and other trading patterns that can distort markets. Lee added that regulators plan to improve surveillance, investigation and monitoring systems with artificial intelligence and focus more closely on high-risk areas.

“We will continue to enhance market surveillance, investigation and monitoring systems based on AI,” Lee said. The regulator has not disclosed a full public list of the 40-plus cases or detailed the status of every referral.

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Meanwhile, South Korea continues to expand its digital asset rules.The government is moving to bring cryptocurrencies and other digital assets under a new state asset management framework. The proposal would extend state asset rules beyond traditional holdings such as real estate.

Authorities have also increased scrutiny of unregistered crypto operators. Crypto.news reported in June that the Financial Intelligence Unit had referred about 40 unregistered operators to law enforcement and warned users about risks tied to platforms operating outside the country’s registration system.

The Virtual Asset User Protection Act took effect on July 19, 2024, as South Korea’s first dedicated law focused on crypto user protection and unfair trading. Two years later, regulators are using the framework to pursue alleged market abuse while preparing wider digital asset rules and new monitoring tools.

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Bitcoin flat near $64,000 as oil hits a one-month high and Kimi AI selloff lingers

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Bitcoin flat near $64,000 as oil hits a one-month high and Kimi AI selloff lingers

Equities and technology bets are still recovering from Friday. Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3, a Chinese open-weight model that took the top spot in a widely watched coding benchmark, triggered a semiconductor selloff that dragged crypto down with it to close last week.

The aftershock ran through Asia on Monday, with South Korea’s Kospi falling 3.5% as traders returned from their own holiday. U.S. futures steadied, with the Nasdaq 100 up 0.5%, but the question the release raised has not gone away.

For crypto the two forces roughly cancel. War-driven oil is inflationary, which is bad for risk assets and for the case that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady. Meanwhile, a Chinese model undercutting the AI trade pressures the chip stocks that bitcoin has tended to track all month.

The week’s test is corporate, not macro. There are no major U.S. economic releases, so the read on the AI trade comes from earnings, with Alphabet reporting Tuesday, Tesla Wednesday and Intel Thursday.

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After last week’s wobble in AI and semiconductor shares, those results will set whether the capital spending underwriting the sector, and the miner-to-AI pivot riding on it, still has a floor.

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