Bitcoin’s recent price decline has prompted market analysts to assess whether a price floor is forming, with one prominent on-chain researcher stating the risk-reward profile has shifted following the selloff.

James “Checkmate” Check, a former lead researcher at Glassnode and author of Check On Chain, told What Bitcoin Did host Danny Knowles that Bitcoin entered “deep value” territory across multiple mean-reversion frameworks when it dropped into recent price zones, according to statements made on the podcast. Check noted that capitulation-style losses spiked to levels last seen at the 2022 cycle lows.

Check stated that if Bitcoin is not trending toward zero, the statistical setup appears increasingly asymmetric after the selloff. The analyst said the current environment represents a time for market participants to pay attention rather than lose focus.

The researcher said he was focused on market structure rather than identifying a single forced seller behind the price movement.

Check offered a probabilistic assessment, stating that the odds of a bottom forming have increased significantly. He said the probability that the market has already set a meaningful low stands at more than 50%, likely around 60%, according to his analysis. The analyst assigned low odds to Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high within the year without a major macroeconomic shift or significant market event.

Regarding exchange-traded funds, Check cited billions in outflows during the drawdown, but characterized the situation as positioning unwinds rather than structural failure. He noted that at an earlier peak, approximately 62% of cumulative inflows were underwater, while ETF assets under management declined only in the mid-single digits. Check suggested earlier outflows aligned with CME open interest, consistent with basis-trade adjustments.

The analyst criticized reliance on the four-year halving cycle as a timing tool, calling it an “unnecessary bias.” Check said his approach prioritizes observing investor behavior over calendar-based predictions.

Even if the low has been established, Check said he expects the market to revisit it. He argued that bottoms typically form through multiple “capitulation wicks” followed by extended periods of reduced activity, where sustained uncertainty erodes confidence among late-cycle buyers. Check stated that formulating a bear case at current levels would be premature, framing the current zone as late-stage rather than early-stage in the move, while acknowledging prices could decline further.

The analyst described two failed all-time-high attempts in October followed by a sharp decline that likely resulted in significant losses for market participants. He referenced what he termed a “hodler’s wall” of invested wealth positioned above key levels, including a threshold he called the “bull’s last stand.” Check argued that once price broke below those levels, downside probability increased.

A key reference level cited by Check was the True Market Mean, described as a long-term center-of-gravity price that also overlapped with the ETF cost basis. He said that once that level broke, the psychological regime shifted to an acceptance phase where market participants began to believe a bear market had begun.

Check argued the market was subsequently pulled toward a prior high-volume consolidation zone where a significant portion of this cycle’s trading volume had occurred. He said the selloff likely involved leverage liquidations but framed that as secondary to a broader shift in market sentiment, where participants sell rallies during perceived downtrends.

The most significant bottoming signal emphasized by Check was the scale of realized losses during the recent decline. He said capitulation losses occurred at a very large daily rate, comparable to the 2022 bottom, with sellers concentrated among recent buyers from the late cycle and those who purchased during an earlier consolidation period. Check also noted that SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) printed around minus one standard deviation, a reading that has historically appeared in only two contexts: as an early warning signal and near bottoming phases.

Check reiterated that bottoms form through a process involving multiple capitulation events followed by extended periods of reduced speculative interest, rather than a single definitive price point.

Espresso, a decentralized rollup base layer, launched its native ESP token this morning at a valuation of roughly $275 million following its token airdrop and distribution.

The token debuted at $0.072 before jumping up to $0.083 shortly after its launch and has reported $115 million in trading volume over its first 7 hours across CoinGecko-tracked platforms.

The protocol is designed to support rollups and appchains with everything they need from a base layer to ensure high performance, including finality, data availability, and real-time interoperability.

Today’s ESP token launch enables the network to transition to proof-of-stake, and the protocol has distributed 10% of the token supply in an airdrop to more than one million eligible addresses.

There was also a Kaito Launchpad sale in July 2025, which sold 1% of the supply at a $400 million valuation, leaving launchpad investors with a 31% loss at current prices.

The ESP token is the latest in a line of ICOs and token sales that are opening underwater, with Infinex and Aztec being two other recent examples.

Coinbase (COIN) missed fourth-quarter earnings forecasts on Thursday, thanks to weaker trading activity and lower crypto asset prices.

The U.S.-based crypto exchange posted total revenue of $1.78 billion against estimates for $1.83 billion. Adjusted EPS of $0.66 was well lower than the consensus $0.86.

Total transaction revenue of $983 million was below forecasts for $1.02 billion and down from $1.046 billion in the third quarter and $1.556 billion in the fourth quarter one year ago.

Subscription revenue of $727.4 million was down from $746.7 million the previous quarter and up from $641.1 million a year earlier.

Through Feb. 10 of the first quarter, the company saw transaction revenue of about $420 million. It guided to full-quarter subscription revenue of $550-$630 million.

“We continue to be optimistic about the long-term trajectory of the crypto industry,” Coinbase said. “Crypto is cyclical, and experience tells us it’s never as good, or as bad as it seems. While asset prices can be volatile, under the surface an undercurrent of technological change and crypto product adoption continues.”

Shares are modestly higher in after-hours trading, but fell 7.9% during the regular session, extending year-to-date declines to 40%.

TLDR

• Vitalik Buterin condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling it criminal aggression and not a situation of equal fault.
• He argued that lasting peace in Ukraine and Europe can only be achieved through internal change within Russia.
• Buterin proposed that decentralized governance could be the key to reforming Russia’s political system.
• He highlighted tools like quadratic voting and zero-knowledge systems as potential solutions for improving decision-making.
• Buterin emphasized the importance of involving more people in governance through platforms like pol.is to find societal compromises.

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, shared his views on Russia’s future in a post published on February 12. In the post, originally written in Russian, Buterin called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “criminal aggression.” He emphasized the need for structural reform within Russia to achieve long-term peace and security, advocating for a decentralized governance model.

Buterin Criticizes Russia’s War and Calls for Internal Change

In his recent post, Vitalik Buterin condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, labeling it as “criminal aggression.” He strongly rejected the idea that both sides are equally at fault, which some have argued. Buterin clarified that peace in Europe and Ukraine could not be achieved through a simple ceasefire alone.

He suggested that the best path to stability in the region involves internal change within Russia itself. For Russia to secure lasting peace, Buterin proposed significant structural reforms. These reforms, according to him, should focus on decentralizing governance, moving away from centralized power.

Vitalik Buterin Advocates for Decentralized Governance

Vitalik Buterin emphasized the potential of decentralized governance to transform Russia. He mentioned specific tools that could help in building a new system, such as quadratic voting and zero-knowledge (ZK) systems. These tools, Buterin argued, could allow large groups of people to find common ground without relying on a small elite.

The Ethereum co-founder believes that decentralized governance could be key to building a more transparent and fair system. In his post, he also referenced platforms like pol.is, which allow for broader participation in decision-making. These digital tools, Buterin suggested, could provide a way for citizens to directly engage with governance.

New Leadership and Ideas for Russia’s Future

Buterin also discussed the importance of new leadership in Russia, highlighting the need for fresh ideas. He stressed that the Russian opposition should focus on involving more people in decision-making. This approach would help avoid the concentration of power in the hands of a few.

He pointed out that using platforms for online voting and discussions could allow people to reach societal compromises. These compromises could then be turned into official policies without the need for intermediaries. According to Buterin, achieving consensus in this manner is crucial for Russia’s long-term stability.

TLDR

• ETHZilla has launched a tokenized investment opportunity in leased jet engines through its subsidiary ETHZilla Aerospace.
• The company acquired two CFM56 commercial jet engines worth $12.2 million and is offering equity in these assets via the Eurus Aero Token I.
• The tokens, available to accredited investors, are priced at $100 each, with a minimum investment of 10 tokens.
• ETHZilla aims to provide a targeted return of 11% for token holders if they hold through the lease term, ending in 2028.
• Cash flows from the leased engines will be distributed monthly to token holders via blockchain technology.

ETHZilla has expanded its operations into the tokenization sector, launching a new project focused on jet engine leases. The company, through its new subsidiary ETHZilla Aerospace, is offering tokenized equity in jet engines it recently acquired. This move comes as ETHZilla seeks to diversify its investments amid Ethereum prices continuing to decline.

ETHZilla Introduces Tokenized Engine Leases on Arbitrum

ETHZilla’s new venture centers around tokenizing a $12.2 million investment in two leased CFM56 commercial jet engines. These engines are leased to a major U.S. airline, though the company has not disclosed the airline’s identity due to confidentiality concerns. By launching the Eurus Aero Token I on the Arbitrum layer-2 network, ETHZilla offers tokenized equity in the engines, allowing investors to participate in this emerging market.

ETHZilla CEO McAndrew Rudisill commented on the project, stating, “Offering a token backed by engines leased to one of the largest and most profitable U.S. airlines serves as a strong use case in applying blockchain infrastructure to aviation assets with contracted cash flows.” The company believes that this move will help modernize fractional ownership of aviation assets, a market traditionally dominated by institutional investors and private equity firms.

Token Sale Details and Project Goals

The Eurus Aero Token I, available to accredited investors, will be sold through Liquidity.io’s token marketplace. Each token is priced at $100, with a minimum investment of $1,000, or 10 tokens. The project aims to offer a return of approximately 11% if token holders hold until the lease agreements conclude in 2028. However, a disclaimer notes that actual returns could differ based on various factors.

Cash flows from the leased engines will be distributed monthly to token holders through the blockchain. ETHZilla has structured the tokens with collateral consisting of the engines, related lease receivables, insurance proceeds, and other reserves. The company’s tokenization model ensures transparency and on-chain distribution, making it accessible to a broader group of investors.

ETHZilla’s expansion into tokenized aviation assets is part of a broader effort to pivot from its Ethereum holdings. The firm recently revealed a $250 million share buyback program, following a drop in the company’s market cap. ETHZilla’s share price has seen fluctuations, including a significant drop in recent months.

BitGo Holdings and 21Shares said Thursday they have expanded their existing partnership to include custody and staking services supporting 21Shares’ crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) for investors in the United States and Europe.

Under the agreement, BitGo will deliver qualified custody, trading and execution services and integrated staking infrastructure for 21Shares’ US exchange-traded funds and global ETPs. The arrangement also provides 21Shares with access to liquidity across electronic and over-the-counter markets, according to the announcement.

BitGo said the services will be delivered through its regulated entities in the US and Europe, including its federally chartered trust bank approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and its MiCA-licensed operations authorized by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority.