On February 5, India’s national capital Delhi will vote in state assembly elections. The contest is a triangular one between the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the main challenger and India’s ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress.
While the AAP is determined to win a third straight term in power in Delhi, the BJP is just as determined to unseat it. By taking control over the Delhi assembly, it wants to realize its dream of a “double engine” government in Delhi. It has been 27 years since the BJP governed Delhi.
Meanwhile, the Congress is desperate to regain its foothold in Delhi.
The Delhi election is thus in many ways an existential battle for all three parties.
Of the 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly, the AAP currently holds 58, the BJP seven, and the Congress none. Yet, the incumbent AAP is jittery ahead of the elections. Should the AAP not win a third term, the party will be in power in just one state — Punjab.
The party is possibly facing its toughest battle ever. In addition to facing a two-term anti-incumbency voter sentiment, its image as an anti-corruption crusader has been sullied. AAP founder Arvind Kejriwal, once hailed as a middle-class “anti-corruption hero,” is embroiled in a liquor policy scam.
Kejriwal has sought to portray himself as a victim of the “BJP’s political vendetta.” However, it did not bring him public sympathy. In the April-May 2024 general elections, the AAP was wiped out in Delhi and the BJP won all seven parliamentary seats. More recently, Kejriwal has sought to project an image of being uninterested in power and position. Following his release from jail on bail in September, he stepped down as Delhi’s chief minister and appointed a loyalist to the post. That, however, is unlikely to have any impact on voters because his appointee is widely regarded as a mere proxy for Kejriwal.
The AAP’s biggest asset going into the elections has been its welfare model of governance in Delhi, which has been a game-changer. It improved government schools and hospitals in Delhi and introduced inexpensive mohalla or neighborhood clinics.
During the past decade of AAP rule in Delhi, the Modi government did its utmost to weaken and discredit the party by curtailing its administrative powers, labeling it as corrupt, and using central agencies like the Enforcement Directorate and the Central Bureau of Investigation to probe and intimidate AAP leaders. But its ploys had little impact on the AAP’s support among the masses; the AAP’s vote share in the 2020 Delhi Assembly polls was 54 percent compared to the BJP’s 38 percent.
Now in its election campaign, the BJP has sought to weaken the AAP’s welfare credentials. It has accused Kejriwal of living an opulent lifestyle and described his official residence as a “sheeshmahal” (palace), an allegation that AAP denies.
Delhi is a state with its own elected assembly. But it is not a full-fledged state; crucial powers like law and order are not in its hands but fall under the central government. The Delhi Police is controlled by the Union Home Ministry.
Despite restrictions on the Delhi government’s powers, the prestige and clout of ruling Delhi is undeniable. It helped project the AAP, a nascent party in India’s political arena, as a challenger to the ruling BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Given the prestige of the Delhi assembly, the BJP is pulling out all stops to win the coming election. Modi is leading its campaign and the party has enlisted Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath as a “star campaigner” for the Delhi polls. Importantly, the election is a test of Modi’s charisma and ability to win elections as the face of the BJP in the state.
In the past, Modi trashed the AAP’s strategy of handing out freebies. Now the BJP is not only promising electoral sops should it come to power in Delhi – it has promised to continue the AAP government’s free electricity commitment to Delhi’s low-income residents – but also, it is outdoing the AAP in its promises.
For the Congress, the upcoming elections is a battle to stay relevant. The party’s Delhi unit has weakened considerably since its three-term Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit lost power in 2013. Party insiders say that they are hoping to improve the Congress vote share from 5 percent to 10. If it doesn’t manage to do that, it will be wiped out in the capital.
The Congress party’s joining hands with the AAP to take on the BJP forced it to allow the AAP to take centerstage. In the process, the Congress has been reduced to a marginal player in Delhi, much to the anger of the Delhi Congress leaders. The AAP-Congress alliance didn’t even help the two in the general elections. Although they fought the 2024 general elections jointly as part of the INDIA bloc, it did not win them any seats in the capital.
Though still INDIA bloc partners, the AAP and Congress are fighting each other in Delhi. They have not hesitated to target each other in the ongoing poll campaigns. AAP posters name Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in a list of corrupt leaders. Congress leaders have sharply criticized the AAP for its betrayal of the Congress, despite the support the latter extended to Kejriwal when he was arrested. They are publicly saying that allying with the AAP in the 2024 elections was a mistake.
The Delhi election could also lead to a recalibrating within the INDIA bloc. Can the AAP and Congress continue amicably within the alliance?
