As President Yook Suk-yeol waits for the Constitutional Court to decide on his impeachment, polling shows broad disapproval of his presidency. What does this mean going forward?
Yoon narrowly won the presidency in 2022 against Lee Jae-Myung of the the Democratic Party (DP). In what was dubbed an “unlikeable election,” corruption allegations and negative campaigning turned off many voters. Yoon enjoyed an approval rate at his inauguration of approximately 53 percent; by the fall of 2024, his rates had plummeted to 13 percent and 11 percent in two December Gallup polls, showing public anger over his declaration of martial law on December 3.
However, some polls have found a Yoon resurgence since then, partly due to distrust of the opposition parties. Notably, the KOPRA poll in January put Yoon’s approval rating at 40 percent.
Presidential approval rates generally decline over time; for example, Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae-in, saw his support decline roughly by half over time, although his outgoing rating of 45 percent was still the highest for any South Korean president at the end of their term.
For Yoon, several scandals involving First Lady Kim Keon-hee, including allegations of accepting luxury gifts, tarnished his image as an anti-corruption champion. Critics also argue Yoon has been ineffective in addressing inflation and unemployment. However, Yoon’s declaration of martial law on December 3, citing threats from “anti-state forces” allegedly linked to North Korea despite no impending actions from the regime, generated an immediate and severe backlash. Yoon’s decree banning all political activity and giving him control of the press quickly reminded citizens of the authoritarian era. The move met with swift opposition from the opposition-controlled National Assembly, with legislators arriving at night to overturn the declaration. Yoon immediately rescinded the order, but the damage was already done, with the National Assembly voting to impeach him eleven days later.
Nor has Yoon been apologetic in the aftermath, blaming the opposition DP for obstructing his agenda, including the budget. Yoon claims the DP’s obstruction forced him to act. Moreover, supporters of his People Power Party (PPP) generally remain with Yoon, claiming he was defending the country from anti-democratic elements within the DP. Some in the PPP even claim, without evidence, that the DP stole the 2024 National Assembly election.
The Constitutional Court has yet to declare whether Yoon’s impeachment will be upheld, and the track record on impeachments is mixed. The court rejected Roh Moo-hyun’s impeachment but upheld Park Geun-hye’s. In light of both pro and anti-Yoon protests as the court prepares to issue its verdict, I surveyed Koreans to determine how the public evaluates Yoon’s presidency at this moment, in an environment that remains highly partisan.
I conducted a national web survey from February 24-27 via Macromill Embrain, using quota sampling for age, gender, and region. The poll asked 1,000 South Koreans “Do you approve or disapprove of President Yoon’s performance?”
Only 8.8 percent of respondents approved of Yoon’s performance, with over three-quarters (76 percent) stating disapproval. Approval dipped even lower among those without a party preference. As expected, supporters of the opposition DP overwhelmingly disapprove of Yoon’s performance, while a plurality of those within Yoon’s own PPP still support him (44.81 percent).
Breaking it down by political ideology, those who identified as slightly to very progressive overwhelmingly disapproved (94.74 percent) of Yoon, compared to a plurality of conservatives (45.93 percent) and a majority of moderates (77.61 percent). Some variation by gender also emerges, with men twice as likely to approve (11.79 percent vs. 5.70 percent), but with majorities of both men and women viewing Yoon’s presidency unfavorably (73.87 percent vs. 78.21 percent). Little difference emerged in other demographic factors such as education and income.
The results of this survey provide important insights into both Yoon’s standing and the broader political landscape in South Korea. The impeachment of Yoon – followed in short order by the impeachment of Prime Minister-turned-Acting President Han Duck-soo – has exacerbated instability and effective governance, but it has not necessarily rewarded the opposition. While some conservatives are defecting from Yoon, a core of his constituency remains supportive, positioning Yoon as a victim. Notably, in a country where parties frequently split and merge, no strong viable conservative alternative to Yoon has emerged. This is despite the fact that even if the Constitutional Court upholds Yoon’s impeachment, he would only be able to serve the rest of his constitutionally limited one five-year term.
The events surrounding Yoon’s martial law declaration and subsequent impeachment are testing the resilience of the country’s democratic institutions. In the survey, we also asked about trust in several political institutions.
For the presidency, only 22 percent of respondents stated they had quite a lot or a great deal of trust, compared to 40.8 percent stating none or very little. Of those approving of Yoon, 64.77 percent trusted the presidency, down to only 16.45 percent of those who disapproved of Yoon’s presidency.
However, the National Assembly did not fare much better, with only 14.10 percent exhibiting trust compared to 56.9 percent having none or very little. Of note, trust in the legislature differed little among those approving and those disapproving of Yoon (14.77 percent and 16.71 percent, respectively) or between DP and PPP supporters (24.78 percent and 22.08 percent, respectively), but rated an abysmal 8.31 percent among those with no party identification.
Moreover, although roughly two-thirds of respondents (64.7 percent) said “democracy is always preferable to any other kind of government,” 19.3 percent overall agreed that “under some circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic one.” Among PPP supporters, that rate increased to 38.31 percent.
Even if the Constitutional Court overrules Yoon’s impeachment, he will face an emboldened opposition and a public that remains overwhelmingly critical of his presidency. Nor would this address how the underlying problems of hyper-partisanship and institutions fuel instability by making compromise and cooperation increasingly difficult. With approval ratings as low as 8.8 percent, a Yoon who survives impeachment will likely further fuel these divisions rather than restore institutional trust.
