The Dutertes and their loyal supporters have organized marches, motorcades, and prayer rallies to protest the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte on March 11 and his turnover into the custody of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Netherlands.
They have condemned what they described as the “kidnapping” of the former president and the violation of the country’s sovereignty, and have refused to acknowledge the ICC’s jurisdiction over the Philippines. But their strongest denunciation was directed against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., whom they have accused of betraying his former ally by reneging on his pledge that he would not cooperate with the ICC.
Speaking before a massive crowd in Davao City, Duterte’s son cursed Marcos for jailing his father even after the former president allowed the burial of his father, former President Ferdinand E. Marcos, in the country’s Heroes’ Cemetery. Pro-Duterte rallies across the country and in some cities abroad featured speakers denouncing the “ungrateful” Marcos and his corrupt governance. Even Marcos allies in the ongoing senatorial elections have expressed dismay over what happened to the Duterte patriarch. Another sign of disunity within the administration was the refusal of the solicitor general to represent government officials in responding to the Supreme Court petition questioning Duterte’s arrest.
Could the political tension destabilize the Marcos presidency? When he was being arrested, Duterte quipped that it would lead to his daughter Sara, currently the vice president, becoming the president. In another cryptic remark, Duterte reportedly said that his children will run after the police general in charge of the arrest team. Duterte didn’t elaborate on his remarks but he could be referring either to the plan of his daughter to run for president in 2028 or his frequent plea to the police and the military to take action against the “fractured governance” of the Marcos administration.
Perhaps the government anticipated some rumblings among uniformed personnel and it sought to preempt this by increasing the subsistence allowance of the military. As for the vice president, her impeachment trial is set for June but some legislators have already started releasing more evidence of her alleged anomalous expenses.
Duterte’s next scheduled hearing at the ICC is in September which gives enough time for his supporters to gather support and put more pressure on the Marcos government. Unfortunately, this has so far included the spreading of narratives depicting Duterte as a victim of injustice based on false quotes, stolen images, and distorted reports. Duterte loyalists also actively trolled not just families of drug war victims but also lawyers and ICC judges.
The tense situation is expected to continue, coinciding with the second half of the midterm election campaign which ends on May 9. Both Marcos and Duterte camps are hoping to get enough votes in the Senate ahead of the vice president’s impeachment trial.
It remains unclear whether pro-Duterte groups could sustain street protests and pose a threat to the Marcos presidency. Former President Duterte himself tried to lead monthly “prayer rallies” in 2024 but was unable to mobilize a sizeable crowd outside his bailiwick areas. A church group, which recently released a statement opposing the former president’s custody at the ICC, could potentially deliver the warm bodies for a pro-Duterte mass action. This is the same church group that gathered a million of its members to oppose the impeachment of Duterte in January.
But the fierceness of Duterte loyalists could not undo the situation of their revered leader who remains in detention and is awaiting trial for crimes against humanity. They also could not stop the victims of the drug war and human rights advocates from highlighting the documented abuses and other acts of tyranny during Duterte’s notorious reign.
As for President Marcos, he may have a solid plan to neutralize the Dutertes but it is the anguish of ordinary citizens reeling from high prices and low wages that he should be worried about. Even Vice President Sara Duterte is aware that the concern of the average voter is the economic crisis, which is why her arrival statement at The Hague when she visited her father focused on the need to address poverty, hunger, and joblessness in the Philippines. In other words, the most serious threat to the Marcos presidency is its own failure to fulfill the campaign promise of bringing down the price of rice and other goods, uplift the conditions of working families, and provide adequate and affordable services to the people.
