The changing India-U.S. dynamic has been much in the news in China lately. Many Chinese reports have been indulging in a narrative that India is worried about its ties with the United States, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveling halfway around the world to ensure that New Delhi remains in the good books of the Trump administration. Chinese media outlets have even suggested that during his recent trip to the U.S., Modi was “turned away by Trump” and “defeated in the U.S.,” claiming that President Donald Trump dismissed India’s overtures.
These assertions imply that uncertainties and anxieties in dealing with Trump might prompt India to mend ties with China. Such assumptions are flawed. The success or failure of Modi’s U.S. tour and complications in coordination with the new Trump administration cannot be a determinant to India normalizing its ties with China – as some Chinese media outlets seem to have suggested. However, such narratives signal Beijing’s growing anxieties about Trump’s trade war and India’s skillful response to keep Washington in a tight embrace.
Beijing – and indeed most analysts around the world – perceives the strengthening India-U.S. partnership as a response to its strategic assertions and territorial aggression with its neighbors including India. With Trump’s return to office in January, concerns in Beijing are intensifying, reshaping the geopolitical triangle between China, India, and the United States.
Trump’s previous term in the White House had unsettled both Europe and China, and his return to office has put both Beijing and Brussels in the line of fire on tariffs and trade. However, for India, this scenario is not entirely unfavorable. Modi was one of the first global leaders to engage Trump after his electoral victory, highlighting India’s elevated role in U.S. foreign policy.
While India is seen as a counterweight to China, Washington’s perspective on India has also matured, acknowledging New Delhi as a pivotal partner in a broader Indo-Pacific strategic and economic framework. This shift is particularly relevant as the United States navigates shifting transatlantic alliances and recalibrates its Indo-Pacific strategy. India’s flexible and amenable approach to Trump’s insistence on tariff reductions is beginning to pay off and the two sides are aiming to conclude a bilateral trade agreement by this fall. This shows the remarkable ease India has acquired in dealing with the United States and the value it attaches to bilateral relations.
Chinese commentators frequently highlight frictions in India-U.S. relations, such as disputes over trade tariffs, technology restrictions, and immigration policies, interpreting them as signs of instability in the partnership. Some analysts argue that Washington’s primary interest in India is its role merely as a strategic counterbalance to China, rather than as a genuine long-term ally.
A Chinese commentary noted that while Beijing was not directly involved in this diplomatic drama, the broader China-India-U.S. triangle was at play. Liu Zongyi from the Shanghai Institute of International Studies argued that India aims to ensure continued U.S. pressure on China while advancing its own economic and technological interests.
On the surface, the United States and India appear to share warm ties, but underlying tensions persist. Many in China perceived Modi’s visit as a humiliation, citing conflicts between India’s “Make in India” ambitions and Trump’s “America First” policy. One commentator remarked, “You are in the United States, talking to Americans, and the Americans put their national interests first. Doesn’t that mean the loss of India’s national interests?”
Some Chinese analysts speculate that Trump’s reduced focus on the Indo-Pacific signals a decline in India’s strategic relevance. Some believe that while India-U.S. relations will endure, their momentum may slow in the absence of a strong regional emphasis. For example, Hu Shisheng, from the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, is skeptical about whether a second Trump administration would deepen ties with India beyond the momentum seen under Joe Biden.
However, other analysts, like Zhang Jiadong of Fudan University, have suggested that Trump’s foreign policy would likely prioritize India over Europe, reinforcing New Delhi’s strategic importance.
China often underestimates India’s commitment to strategic autonomy, assuming that New Delhi simply follows Washington’s lead. In reality, India has pursued parallel engagements with multiple global players, including Russia, while reducing its economic reliance on any single bloc. However, persistent border disputes and military tensions have reshaped India’s approach toward China, compelling it to recalibrate its strategic partnerships.
The deepening India-U.S. engagement extends beyond bilateral interests. From defense collaborations to semiconductor supply chain diversification, the partnership is evolving in response to global economic and security dynamics. The United States recognizes India’s growing influence and strategic importance, especially as supply chain realignments reduce dependence on China.
Recent trade data underscores this shift: India-U.S. trade surpassed $190 billion in 2023, making the United States India’s largest trading partner, surpassing China. Defense cooperation has also expanded, with India signing agreements for joint military exercises, defense technology sharing, and advanced fighter jet engine manufacturing.
In contrast, China-India trade, although substantial at $136 billion in 2023, remains heavily skewed in Beijing’s favor, with a significant trade deficit for India. This economic imbalance, coupled with ongoing military standoffs, continues to fuel strategic mistrust between New Delhi and Beijing.
While China remains an influential factor in India-U.S. relations, it does not define them. The evolving partnership between New Delhi and Washington reflects a convergence of shared interests in security, trade, and technology. India’s strategic autonomy remains a guiding principle, allowing it to collaborate with the United States while maintaining independent policies toward China, Russia and other global actors.
China’s assessment of India often overlooks New Delhi’s nuanced and pragmatic foreign policy approach. As India navigates a shifting global order, its deepening engagement with the U.S. is driven by long-term strategic interests rather than temporary political alignments. Regardless of Trump’s unconventional approach, the India-U.S. partnership is set to evolve, balancing cooperation with competition while ensuring that New Delhi remains a pivotal player in global geopolitics.
