» Conservatives still have a real shot at winning the election

Article content

Elections are decided by those who bother to show up. Which is why a Conservative victory on Monday is still possible and desirable.

Article content

Article content

Article content

We’ve seen a lot of change in the polls already this year from a 15-20 point lead for the Conservatives at the start of the year, to a 12-point lead for the Liberals near the start of the campaign to some polls in the last week having the two parties tied or a slight lead for one or the other. As my maxim goes, voters are fickle, polls can change and campaigns matter. 

Speaking earlier this week with Darrell Bricker, the Global CEO of Public Affairs for Ipsos, he said that with the Conservatives have the momentum right now and with all the fluidity we’ve seen in the electorate, we could see a surprise come Monday. 

“There always can be that,” Bricker said.  

He went on to say that a large percentage of the people that he and other polling firms are speaking to won’t actually vote. In 2021, voter turnout was 62.3% while in 2019 it was 67%. 

Article content

Article content

“So, if they’re weighted disproportionately to one party or another, and those parties voters are not as motivated as another party’s voters, and they’re making up their minds late, you can we can end up with some surprises and things that a poll can’t catch,” Bricker said. 

He also noted a trend over the last several election cycles: Voters are making their minds up late.  

“Increasingly, it’s in the last 72 hours. And the reason for that is because partisan attachment isn’t what it used to be,” Bricker said. 

“People are making up their minds very late in the election campaign. And, you know, in most of our polls, and we do this globally, in the range of, you know, 5% to 10% actually make up their mind the day they’re voting or actually in the booth. So, there’s still a lot to play for and the momentum at the moment is on the Conservative side.” 

Article content

Bricker still thinks the most likely outcome is a Liberal victory but if 5% to 10% of voters change their minds, in an election this close, that could swing this to a massive Liberal majority or to a Conservative victory. 

We know who Carney’s voters are, they tend to be older, in the 55-plus category. They are retired more often than Conservative voters, and they are wealthy. 

This is the most reliable voting block there is in Canadian politics and until Mark Carney and the Liberal harnessed their fear of Donald Trump, many of these voters would have backed Pierre Poilievre. 

That said, Millennials and Gen-Z voters far outnumber Baby Boomers now and if those younger voters show up, then victory will go to Poilievre. 

Article content

Yes, Trump’s threats to Canada are a serious issue, but so too are the issues that the Liberals have created over the last 10 years that they simply won’t fix. Housing affordability, the broken immigration system, the surge in violent crime, the opioid crisis. 

These problems in Canada are either a direct result of Liberal policy or were made worse by Liberal policy. 

Those of us who want change not only have to get out and vote, we need to take our friends, our family members, our neighbours to the polls and convince them to vote for change. 

Canada can’t afford another four years of the policies that got us into this mess. Get out and vote. 

RECOMMENDED VIDEO

We apologize, but this video has failed to load.

Play Video

Article content