There’s a disconnect between what a small number of people polled say and what thousands of voters see at campaign events
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Do you believe your eyes? Or do you believe the polls?
Many polls are online surveys from companies that have as few as 200 unnamed participants and up to 2,400. So, it’s just a few deciding for the many how an election campaign is going.
As for what your eyes see?
In many cases this week they saw thousands packing rooms across the country – with people waiting in the cold and even being turned away because of a lack of space.
Another indicator to look out for are the candidates’ election signs. Sometimes there are more representing one party than another, which can also be deceiving as Tristan Anderson showed with signs for Liberal Ya’ara Saks in York Centre, blocking out Conservative Roman Baber’s signs at Keele St. and Wilson Ave.
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Neither party commented and we are told there is nothing legally wrong with this. But how does one really know who’s winning during a campaign?
Not even a week in, surveys presented as polls not only show Liberal Leader Mark Carney leading but running away with it.
So how do people square that circle? Are these polls reporting trends or shaping them?
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For example, live events offer a different perspective where Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s appearances are like rock concerts – three times the size of his opponent’s rallies combined.
In the air, Carney is surging. On the ground, Poilievre is creating excitement.
Which do you believe?
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While Kory Teneycke, Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s campaign manager for three majority governments, said Poilievre is falling behind because of being too “Trumpy.”
And while Carney has had high-profile photo-ops with Blue Rodeo, Mike Myers and the Edmonton Oilers, he has also had blunders such as admitting he did in fact know about his company Brookfield Assets moving to New York, or not knowing the name of the college where 14 women were murdered in Montreal, skipping a French language debate, having testy exchanges with female reporters and even being questioned about alleged plagiarism on his university thesis.
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Yet, somehow, Carney’s campaign is rocketing while Poilievre’s is in flames? Seems off.
Yet, most of the media attention was on what Poilievre wasn’t doing, with advice coming in from people trying to make him lose on how to not lose. Some are suggesting it’s already over when this campaign still has 31 days remaining and is actually just getting started.
For the most part, it’s polling company data media use to keep score. Media cover polls as if what they say is verifiable while often not reporting who paid for the poll, what questions were asked, who the people are who participated, their age or demographic.
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They get reported as fact and receive little scrutiny. But how does anybody really know if these online polls are accurate or even answered by eligible Canadian voters?
Not suggesting anything untoward with this, but here’s an example of what a poll press release looks like.
Angus Reid’s latest offering starts off with a headline, “What’s with the Liberal surge? Recent Grit switchers say it’s driven by Carney, Trump’s threats and the ABC factor.”
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The suggestion is the Liberals are back from the dead with Leader Mark Carney. A narrative is set. And what is the “ABC factor?”
Angus Reid explains while “the Trump factor – and his punishing tariffs and threats of annexation – is also cited by most switchers (51%)” the “Anyone But Conservative” (ABC) factor also looms large. Three-in-ten (30%) say they are now supporting the Liberals because the party represents the best chance of stopping the Conservatives from winning the election.”
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With President Donald J. Trump indicating he prefers Carney or Poilievre, and after their phone call Friday he even referred to him as “Mark” instead of “governor,” there has been no coverage noticeable on the ABC marketing line like you might notice if Poilievre is close on April 28.
Angus Reid did not comment but they have previously said an earlier poll found “the Liberals’ turnaround continues to climb in elevation, boosting the party to an eight-point lead (46% to 38%) over the Conservatives.”
Research Director Dave Korzinski sent an email complaining “you’re criticizing our work on social media because you’re not happy with the data, I guess. I don’t recall criticism from Sept. 22 until Feb. 25 while we had the CPC comfortably ahead, unless I missed an email or two.”
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He also added: “We’re always working to improve our sampling and ensure the quality of our work, but your dismissal here is unjustified.”
Of course, the most important poll is election day. But for now, there’s a disconnect between what a small number of people polled say and what thousands of voters see at campaign events.
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