2024 was an eventful year for missile technologies in South Asia.
India conducted a total of 14 missile tests including cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles. At the start of 2024, in March, India successfully tested an Agni-V missile equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology. In November, India tested a long-range hypersonic missile, becoming one of the few countries to possess the technology. In between, it also conducted a test-launch of the K4 Submarine Launch Ballistic Missile (SLBM) and deployed it on INS Arighaat. India also tested an improved version of the Nirbhay cruise missile, which has a range of around 1000 kilometers and can be an important component of the newly developed Indian Integrated Rocket Force. Furthermore, it also tested its Phase-II Ballistic missile defense system. These missile tests highlight the qualitative and quantitative growth in India’s missile arsenal
Pakistan, on the other hand, conducted a test of the Fatah-II rocket system and re-tested its Shaheen-II missile. The Fatah-II is a rocket guided small-range ballistic missile that can hit its targets with precision. Shahen-II, which has a range of 2000 km, was tested to improve its accuracy and enhance survivability. Towards the end of year, Washington sanctioned Pakistan’s missile program, alleging that Islamabad is building missiles that can reach the United States, a claim refuted vehemently by Pakistan.
Let’s look in more detail at the systems involved in India and Pakistan’s flurry of tests.
Agni-V and MIRV
India’s Agni-V is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), with a range of more than 7000 km. MIRV technology can be used against ballistic missile defense systems but also is a potent counterforce weapon. MIRV-equipped missiles can be utilized as a first-strike option, exponentially increasing the force ratio for an attack by increasing the numerical advantage over the defending force. They can also be utilized to destroy hardened targets by using multiple warheads within a circle of a few kilometers.
The ability to deploy MIRV technology on the Agni-V is contributing toward changing India’s nuclear posture from a credible minimum deterrent to a warfighting posture vis-à-vis Pakistan. This development reinforces Pakistan’s claim that India is shifting from a no-first-use to a comprehensive first strike strategy.
Hypersonic Cruise Missile
India’s test of a long-range hypersonic cruise missile has put it into a club of select few countries. The missile has a range of more than 1,500 km and can further compress the already short reaction time between India and Pakistan. Hypersonic weapons can provide India with an enhanced capability to conduct precision strikes during a crisis. They can be used to target nuclear command and control centers or other strategic assets using a conventional payload – i.e. without breaking the nuclear taboo. In short, the use of long-range conventional hypersonic missiles during a crisis can further increase the risks of war in the region.
K-4 SLBM
The K-4 SLBM has a range of 3500 km and is deployed on the INS Arighaat, providing India with an enhanced second-strike capability. It is a major improvement over the K-15 that has a range of only 700 km. This would provide India with a capability to strike all of Pakistan’s territory while operating from the Bay of Bengal. India can also uses its new MIRV technology for the K-4 missile, further enhancing its capability.
India has now commissioned two nuclear submarines, the INS Arihant and INS Arighaat, with a third, INS Aridhaman, to be inducted this year. Moreover, India also has a fleet of 17 diesel-electric attack submarines. India has also signed a “ten year lease agreement” with Russia for another Akula-class fast attack submarine to be transferred to India by 2025. India plans to build a fleet of six nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) and has given the go-ahead for the first two. India’s growing submarine fleet in contrast to Pakistan can disturb the mutually assured destruction (MAD) equation in South Asia.
Nirbhay Cruise Missile and Integrated Rocket Force
India has also tested a Long-Range Land Attack Cruise Missile (LRLACM) that has a range of more than 1,000 km. It was described by Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) officials as a new variant of the Nirbhay cruise missile.
India has established an Integrated Rocket Force (IRF) to enhance its conventional prowess and capability to conduct non-contact warfare. The IRF would comprise mainly of Pralay missiles – India already has 120 of them and plans to induct 250 more. The range of the Pralay missile is between 150-500 km, making them tactical missiles that can be used on the battlefield. Besides the Pralay, the IRF would also compromise the BrahMos, LRLACM, and Nirbhay missiles to provide India with cost-effective measures compared to heavy military deployments or air force involvement. They can also be used for surgical strikes, as its previous clash with Pakistan in 2019 resulted in the loss of an aircraft.
This development, however, can weaken crisis stability in the region. The use of missiles has not been a norm between India and Pakistan, and any such precedent would only further lower the threshold of use of force between the two states.
Phase II Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Interceptor
The test of the Phase II Air Defense (AD) endo-atmospheric missile indicates that India’s indigenous BMD system is in an advanced phase. The reported range of the missile is 5,000 km, providing India with the capability to intercept an adversary’s missile in its terminal stage.
India’s development of an indigenous BMD system – alongside the S-400 acquired from Russia – risks creating a sense of false security that India can defend against Pakistan’s nuclear force. The development of India’s BMD system is a matter of concern for Pakistan as these systems can protect against the residual missile force of Islamabad if New Delhi conducts a first strike. This false sense of security can exacerbate crisis instability in the region, putting Pakistan in a “use-it or lose-it” dilemma in a future crisis.
Pakistan’s Missile Developments
The Fatah-II has been developed by Pakistan to provide the capability to strike deeper into enemy territory with greater accuracy and precision – the missile has a circular error probe (CEP) of less than a meter. The missile is an advanced variant of the Fatah-I, increasing the range from 150 km to 400 km. Because of its precision, accuracy, and cost-effectiveness, the Fatah-II provides Pakistan with a solution to counter India’s missile defense system and Cold Start doctrine of India. The development of the Pralay and Nirbhay missiles by India and the Fatah-II by Pakistan showcases an increased focus on conventional missile systems in the region.
Pakistan’s strategic calculus is India-centric and it has time and again reiterated that its nuclear capabilities are only to deter threats from New Delhi. Pakistan’s missile developments are qualitative, aimed to enhance the survivability of its nuclear forces. To ensure the credibility of its nuclear forces, the missile systems of Pakistan are in line with its policy of full spectrum deterrence under the broader principle of credible minimum deterrence.
Pakistan’s missile program was hit by U.S. sanctions toward the end of year 2024. The claim that it is developing a nuclear missile capable of reaching the United States was refuted in an official statement from the Foreign Office of Pakistan. The view in Islamabad is that these sanctions would only deepen the already increasing missile gap in South Asia, hampering Pakistan’s efforts to maintain strategic stability vis-à-vis India.
The Road Ahead
The missile developments in South Asia in 2024 are a prelude to similar advances to come in 2025. As the arms race takes on alarming speed, the situation needs serious assessment. Both states should work toward some kind of bilateral mechanism to ensure risk reduction measures.
The first step in this direction can be expanding the already existing agreement to provide advance notice of ballistic missile tests to include cruise and hypersonic missiles. Also, because of the increasing development of dual-capable missile systems, it is essential to take some steps to reassure the adversary which missiles are only used for conventional roles and which are used for a nuclear role. Steps like these can help ensure stability in the region in the face of missile technology advancement.
