In a highly publicized Oval Office meeting on February 28, U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy engaged in a heated exchange over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the prospects for peace negotiations. This incident represents more than just a debate over Ukraine – it is a reflection of broader uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitments to allies, a concern that is particularly pressing for Taiwan. The debate underscored growing tensions over Washington’s role in global security, particularly regarding its credibility as a defender of allied nations.
While the debate primarily centered on Ukraine, its ripple effects extend far beyond Europe. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Taiwan, where concerns over U.S. reliability are growing. Recent developments have further complicated this perception. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a global leader in semiconductor production, announced a $100 billion investment to build five new chip fabrication plants in Arizona, marking the largest foreign direct investment in U.S. history. This move is seen as a strategic effort to strengthen Taiwan-U.S. economic ties.
Concurrently, Taiwan’s defense budget for 2025 is set at approximately NT$647 billion, accounting for 2.45 percent of its GDP. This figure falls short of the 10 percent of GDP that some U.S. defense officials deem necessary to deter potential aggression from China. These developments have sparked debates within Taiwan regarding the adequacy of its defense spending and the implications for its security posture.
As Taiwan deepens its economic ties with the United States through TSMC’s multi-billion-dollar investment while simultaneously facing scrutiny over its defense spending, questions about Washington’s long-term security commitment have taken on new urgency. These concerns are further amplified as the Trump administration engages in backchannel talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine. Many in Taiwan are watching closely, questioning whether such an approach signals a weakening of U.S. commitments to its allies. Given Taiwan’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific and its reliance on U.S. security assurances in the face of growing Chinese military pressure, shifts in Washington’s approach to Ukraine are viewed as a potential harbinger of how the U.S. might handle a future Taiwan crisis.
These developments have not gone unnoticed by the Taiwanese public. As debates over U.S. reliability intensify, they are shaping how ordinary citizens perceive Taiwan’s security outlook and Washington’s role in it. While policymakers and analysts assess the strategic implications of Russia-U.S. negotiations, the opinions of the Taiwanese people provide a crucial perspective on how these shifts influence trust in U.S. commitments.
To better understand these perceptions, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) conducted a survey involving a nationally representative sample of 1,285 Taiwanese adults. The survey, carried out by the Electoral Study Center at National Chengchi University (ESC, NCCU), utilized both landline and cellphone interviews and was conducted from March 4 to March 9, 2025. The findings offer critical insights into how Taiwanese citizens interpret the U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine and what they reveal about American security commitments to Taiwan.
The survey results highlight how Taiwanese citizens perceive the U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine, particularly regarding their implications for peace and sovereignty. When asked whether these negotiations – held without Ukraine’s participation – would help accelerate peace and reduce conflict, opinions were divided. 39 percent of respondents agreed (13 percent strongly, 26 percent somewhat), while a plurality of 46 percent disagreed (29 percent somewhat, 17 percent strongly). However, when framed in terms of Ukraine’s sovereignty, the responses shifted significantly. A majority (68 percent) believed that these talks could be detrimental to Ukraine’s sovereignty, with 39 percent strongly agreeing and 29 percent somewhat agreeing. Only 18 percent disagreed (14 percent somewhat, 4 percent strongly).
These findings indicate that while some Taiwanese citizens acknowledge potential diplomatic benefits, many view these negotiations as setting a precedent for sidelining smaller nations in great power diplomacy – an issue that may be particularly concerning given Taiwan’s own security situation.
The skepticism surrounding Russia-U.S. talks on Ukraine is not occurring in isolation. Rather, it reflects broader concerns about the reliability of U.S. security commitments – especially in regions like the Indo-Pacific, where Taiwan remains a focal point of strategic competition. Given Taiwan’s reliance on U.S. military support in the event of a conflict, how do Taiwanese citizens perceive the likelihood of Washington coming to Taiwan’s defense? To explore this question, the survey also examined public expectations regarding U.S. military intervention in a potential cross-strait war.
The survey results reveal a notable shift in Taiwanese confidence in U.S. military support, particularly between the Biden and Trump administrations. Under President Joe Biden, who was in office until January 2025, expectations of U.S. intervention remained relatively stable, with the percentage of respondents who believed the U.S. “definitely will” or “probably will” send troops hovering around 55 percent from March 2023 to March 2024. However, since Trump’s return to office, confidence has declined, reaching its lowest point in two years. By March 2025, the percentage of respondents who believed the U.S. would intervene had dropped to 43 percent, while skepticism grew – those who thought the U.S. “probably won’t” or “definitely won’t” send troops increased from 38 percent in March 2023 to 47 percent in March 2025.
This decline in confidence aligns with Trump’s “America First” approach, which prioritizes U.S. domestic interests over its role as a global leader in maintaining international order. His administration’s backchannel negotiations with Russia over Ukraine have reinforced concerns in Taiwan that Washington may abandon its allies when dealing with global security challenges. Additionally, Trump’s past remarks questioning U.S. military commitments abroad may have further fueled uncertainty, making Taiwanese citizens more doubtful about whether the United States would risk direct military involvement in a cross-strait conflict.
The connection between Taiwanese views on U.S.-Russia negotiations and their confidence in U.S. security commitments becomes even clearer when examining how perceptions of Ukraine’s sovereignty correlate with expectations of U.S. military support for Taiwan.
The data reveals a strong association between skepticism toward the Russia-U.S. negotiations on Ukraine and doubts about U.S. military intervention in Taiwan. Among those who strongly agree that these negotiations undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty, only 35 percent believe the U.S. will “definitely” or “probably” send troops to defend Taiwan, while a majority (62 percent) think the U.S. “probably won’t” or “definitely won’t” intervene. In contrast, respondents who disagree with the idea that Russia-U.S. negotiations harm Ukraine’s sovereignty are significantly more optimistic about U.S. military support for Taiwan. Among those who strongly disagree, 55 percent believe the U.S. will intervene, while skepticism is notably lower.
This divergence suggests that Taiwanese citizens who see the United States as compromising Ukraine’s sovereignty are more likely to question Washington’s commitment to Taiwan’s defense. And a clear majority – 68 percent – of respondents do believe the Russia-U.S. talks could harm Ukraine’s sovereignty.
The survey findings reveal a clear pattern: Taiwanese perceptions of U.S. credibility are closely tied to how Washington handles its global commitments. While the Russia-U.S. negotiations on Ukraine have been framed as a diplomatic effort to end the war, many in Taiwan see them as a test of U.S. resolve. The data suggests that skepticism toward these negotiations correlates with declining confidence in U.S. military intervention in a Taiwan Strait conflict.
If doubts about U.S. military support continue to grow, Taiwan may feel compelled to hedge its security strategy, balancing between strengthening its self-defense and reducing tensions with China. This shift would align with Beijing’s strategic interests, as a Taiwan that no longer fully trusts U.S. commitments may become more cautious in confronting China and more open to risk-avoidance strategies.
Moreover, the United States must recognize that its global actions are being closely watched – not just in Taiwan but among allies worldwide. If Washington wishes to maintain its credibility, it must ensure that its diplomatic choices do not inadvertently push partners away, creating opportunities for China to reshape the regional security order in its favor.
