When President Donald Trump initiated the exit of the United States from the Paris Agreement for the second time, the world was once again reminded of the role that rich, historically polluting countries play in either averting or accelerating a global climate catastrophe. But while all eyes have been on the United States, Japan quietly stands at the precipice of setting a new energy and climate action plan that not only fails domestic expectations, but also threatens global climate goals.
Since December, civil society protests have marked the Japanese government’s drafting of its basic energy and climate action plans, both of which are hinged on a woefully inadequate target of 60 percent emissions reduction from 2013 levels by 2035. This target is far below what experts say is needed to align with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which would require at least an 81 percent emissions reduction.
Last year, the hottest ever recorded globally, over 120 million Japanese experienced extreme heat, leading to hundreds of deaths and a significant drop in agricultural yields. Warmer temperatures also led to more intense rainfalls that resulted in landslides and the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people.
Just like the U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement, the real story isn’t just about Japan’s policies being aligned with the climate accord or not. It’s about who gets to decide our future, the fossil fuel industry or the people who bear the brunt of climate impacts. It’s also about how climate decisions are made: Is it through a rubber-stamping exercise or a truly democratic process?
The troubling reality is that for decades Japan’s climate policymaking process has been dominated by voices that champion the status quo of fossil fuels and nuclear power. Independent expert voices have been brazenly sidelined. While this corporatism isn’t on lewd display – unlike in U.S. politics, where billionaires gathered for Trump’s inauguration posed for the camera – the end result is the same: policies that are bad for the climate and processes that exclude diverse voices, especially the youth who will inherit the consequences of these decisions.
Japanese youth, who form the backbone of its climate movement, have pointed out that the country’s unambitious emissions reduction target was lifted from the proposal of Keidanren or Japan Business Association, the country’s largest industry group. This means that major carbon dioxide emitters are crafting the decarbonization policies of the world’s third largest economy – with troubling results.
Japan’s proposed energy strategy until 2040 does not include a clear plan to phase out coal, despite its G-7 commitment to phase out unabated coal-fired power. Coal and other fossil fuels will still account for 30 to 40 percent of the power mix by 2040.
Japan’s plan also contains a startling reversal: For the first time in 10 years, Japan has removed a stated goal to reduce reliance on nuclear energy. Rather, it aims to rely on nuclear power for 20 percent of the country’s energy needs by 2040, up from just 9 percent in 2023. This will require not only the completion of new nuclear plants, but also the controversial restart of reactors that affected communities are already pushing to decommission. This fresh move to rely on nuclear power also completely ignores the harsh lessons of Fukushima, with its massive cleanup costs and enduring health and social impacts.
Japan’s lukewarm embrace of renewable energy is also unbefitting of its position as an Asian economic powerhouse. While China leads the world in solar and wind energy investments, Japan’s renewable energy target is not more than half (40 to 50 percent) of its energy mix by 2040 – with wind power only constituting 4 to 8 percent despite Japan’s huge wind energy potential. This goal is a paltry increase from the current goal of 36 to 38 percent renewables’ share by 2030, and falls far below the global commitment to triple renewable energy by 2030.
As one of Asia’s major energy financiers, Japan’s energy trajectory is closely followed by the rest of the region. In fact, through its Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) initiative, Japan charts and invests in the region’s supposed decarbonization efforts. But with fossil fuel projects still commanding more than one-third of its investments through AZEC, and with the unveiling of its lackluster energy transition plans, the question needs to be asked: Just how seriously does the Japanese government treat the climate emergency?
A government need not resort to climate denialism for its climate policies to cause harm – just walking the same old fossil fueled path is destructive enough. With the world at the critical crossroads of breaching the 1.5 degree C temperature limit last year, we cannot afford to have world leaders acting as laggards.
Japan can still step up and show the world what climate ambition looks like – or it can push through with its regrettable plan and join in the climate chaos Trump aims to plunge the world into. Regardless, we will continue to fight with hope for a future fueled by the sun, the wind, and the people.
