As Afghanistan plunged into chaos in August 2021, with the collapse of its government and its leaders fleeing, former President Hamid Karzai made an unprecedented and unexpected decision: He stayed.
Amid the panic, as thousands of Kabul residents rushed to the airport, terrified by the news of a complete U.S. withdrawal, Karzai issued a calm yet urgent video appeal to the Taliban to “protect the people.”
In that fragile moment – when the government had vanished into the shadows and the Taliban had yet to seize full control – anything could have befallen the Karzais. They stood on the precipice of fate, their lives hanging in the balance. Kabul has not forgotten. The city still remembers the haunting image of Najibullah, the last pro-communist president, swaying from a traffic pole after the Taliban’s takeover in 1996.
Appearing alongside Karzai in the video were his three daughters Malalai, Durkhani, and Nazo – blonde, pale, and playful, evoking in a strange way the image of the last Russian Tsar’s lost princesses.
Yet, unlike the Romanovs, whose dynasty ended in exile and execution, Karzai was not a leader in retreat but one reemerging into a new phase of his political life.
Once viewed as Washington’s own strongman, Karzai had become a symbol of foreign intervention. It damaged his credibility among Afghans who opposed U.S. involvement. But his 2021 decision to remain in Kabul amid the turmoil granted him a renewed legitimacy that his U.S.-backed presidency had not.
Since the fall of the Afghan government, Karzai has remained engaged with Afghans, foreign diplomats, and Taliban leaders, actively using social media despite reported restrictions on his movement and public speaking. This has provided some sense of normalcy to the Afghan public, and the U.S. allies left behind.
The abrupt and chaotic withdrawal of U.S. forces under the Biden administration, the closure of the U.S. embassy – once the largest in the region – and the severing of diplomatic ties created a strategic vacuum that China, Russia, and Iran have been eager to exploit.
However, a recent shift in Washington’s approach under anew administration has sparked some hope for greater stability in the region, particularly as Afghanistan faces resurgent militant threats, including al-Qaida and Islamic State-Khorasan.
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump’s chief peace negotiator, Zalmay Khalilzad, returned to Kabul for the first time since the Taliban took power in 2021, signaling a quiet recalibration under the second Trump administration. The new administration quietly lifted its $10 million bounty on Sirajuddin Haqqani, Taliban’s acting minister of interior and the leader of the powerful Haqqani network.
Signs of positive change are emerging in Kabul, too. The Taliban, in a gesture of goodwill, released a U.S. citizen and removed anti-American slogans and roadblocks around the abandoned U.S. embassy.
Whether these steps represent a genuine opening remains uncertain, but Washington cannot afford to ignore them. Some Republican hawks, like National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, advocate for a limited U.S. presence to counter terrorism and curb Chinese influence, while others favor a more cautious, but engaged, economic-based approach.
One thing is clear: disengagement is no longer a viable strategy.
The billions of dollars in American weaponry left behind, combined with Bagram Airfield’s strategic importance, make gaining a diplomatic foothold in Afghanistan compelling. Washington could reopen diplomatic channels, even if only through a limited third-party mission in Kabul.
Engagement does not mean recognizing the Taliban, but rather establishing a framework for dialogue — similar to the U.S. Interests Section in Cuba before formal relations were restored. Targeted economic incentives, like unlocking a fraction of the frozen Afghan assets in exchange for verifiable human rights improvements, could provide leverage without compromising U.S. interests.
Without direct engagement, Washington risks becoming a passive observer in a region it once shaped. While Qatar and the UAE have served as intermediaries, the U.S. has leverage through Karzai, who first introduced American politics to the Afghan public. For millions of Afghans, he remains a symbol of a freer era when women could pursue education and work.
Some critics argue that Karzai’s tenure, tainted by allegations of corruption and mismanagement, has eroded his credibility. Others question whether he holds real influence under Taliban rule or if engaging with him is merely symbolic. However, his deep ties across Afghanistan’s tribal and political spectrum provide him with leverage unmatched by any other Afghan leader or foreign intermediary. As a Pashtun leader, Karzai’s influence even extends to the predominantly Pashtun Taliban, positioning him as a key figure in any future peace process.
Another major criticism of Karzai is his outspoken opposition to U.S. policies and his strained relationships with former presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama. Karzai once invoked the image of an Afghan woman to argue against night raids, bombings, and civilian casualties. Yet, despite these tensions, engagement with the U.S. is essential for Afghanistan, given the country’s dire need for strong allies and long-term stability.
Karzai has also faced criticism at home and abroad for referring to the Taliban as “brothers.” While controversial, given the context, this stance was inevitable. The war was taking countless lives, and with the understanding that the United States wouldn’t stay indefinitely, common ground had to be found. By sidelining Karzai during the peace negotiations with the Taliban, the U.S. may have missed a crucial opportunity for a settlement between the former government and the Taliban. But that is now history.
The path forward requires multi-track diplomacy. Karzai understands, and Karzai’s influence is not just historical; it lies in his ability to navigate Afghanistan’s current power struggles.
The Taliban may control the country, but they remain deeply divided. Beneath their public unity, tensions persist, particularly between the Haqqanis, entrenched in Afghanistan’s war landscape, and the Kandahar-based leadership, represented by the supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada, a relative newcomer consolidating power. While Washington debates its approach, Karzai is already navigating these fault lines. His alliance with the Haqqanis, forged during their shared resistance against the Soviets, provides a foundation of trust, and he remains rooted in Kandahar, the historical center of Afghan power.
