» KINSELLA: Election Mark Carney’s to lose – at least for now

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Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats.

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SWOT, it’s called, in corporate strategy sessions. What are our internal strengths and weaknesses? What are the external opportunities and threats?

In the federal general election campaign that gets underway today, you can be certain that the three main Canadian political parties have already done a SWOT, or something approximating it. It’s the kind of analysis that determines ad buy, debate strategy, messages, you name it. It’s important.

Here, then, is the SWOT for the 2025 election campaign. Clip and save.

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STRENGTHS

The Mark Carney Liberals are winning. Their main internal strength, to the surprise of many, is Mark Carney. He may have the pedigree of a bland, boring banker, but the newly-selected Liberal Leader has turned all that into a strength. At a time when the despised-by-Canadians Donald Trump is causing instability and uncertainty everywhere, Carney projects calm and predictability. Female voters, in particular, like him.

Carney has also been willing to take political risks. Going for a skate with the Edmonton Oilers could have been a disaster, if Carney had slipped and fallen on his keister – à la Tory leader Robert Stanfield and the infamous football fumble. Carney didn’t, and he won an approving quote from team captain Connor “Jesus” McDavid.

Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, has strengths of his own. He’s got more candidates, more money, and more organizational muscle. He’s a highly disciplined politician who has been getting himself ready for this moment for his entire life. With the exception of the Mango Mussolini and climate change, his priorities match those of most Canadians.

Jagmeet Singh? He, um, is good at TikTok.

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WEAKNESSES

The Liberal weakness list is long. They’ve been in power for a decade, and can’t credibly depict themselves as representing the change Canadians have said they want. In all that time, they’ve presided over a long list of scandals and missteps. Until Carney arrived, they looked tired and old. Carney is clearly vulnerable on conflicts of interest – check out his appalling treatment of reporters who asked him about his holdings this week – and his record as a corporate multinational titan doesn’t exactly radiate a “Made In Canada” vibe.

Justin Trudeau, now gone, was the main Grit weakness. Carney’s predecessor may now be just another Joe Frontporch, shopping at Canadian Tire, but his name still stirs up anger with many voters, particularly male ones. He’s still a liability for Team Carney.

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Pierre Poilievre’s main weaknesses are multiple, and all Trump-centric. His style and persona attract comparisons to Trump. He calls Canada “broken,” which is essentially what Trump regularly says, too. And his caucus and party contain plenty of crypto-MAGA types – get ready to see lots of Liberal campaign agitprop featuring Team Poilievre in “Make America Great Again” ball caps.

Trump is killing Poilievre’s chances, period. Too many Canadians now suspect Team Poilievre are MAGA North. And, as of today, it’s too late to change that perception.

Jagmeet Singh? He sold off his party, and his credibility, to Justin Trudeau. In 37 days, he will be regretting that transaction, big time.

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OPPORTUNITIES

Externally, Carney’s biggest opportunity, and best friend, is Donald Trump. Trump’s attacks on Canada – calling us the 51st state, sneering that we are weak, mocking our leaders and our people – have vaporized the 30-point lead Poilievre had at the start of 2025, and given the Liberal Party a Lazarus-like resurrection. As long as Trump keeps slamming Canada, Carney will keep winning.

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Poilievre is not lacking in external opportunities, either. He is widely expected to eviscerate Carney in the leaders’ debates. He doesn’t have the baggage the Liberals do. Being the incumbent hurts the Grits – and being the challenger helps the Tories.

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THREATS

The biggest external threat Mark Carney faces are the Trump tariffs, slated to land in the first week of April – in the middle of the election campaign. If Carney fumbles his government’s response – as Justin Trudeau did, flying down, cap-in-hand, to Mar-a-lago – he will have no time to recover.

Poilievre’s biggest threat is Trump. The U.S. President is the destroyer of Canadian Conservative fortunes, everywhere except Alberta and Saskatchewan. If Trump keeps attacking Canada, Poilievre is likely doomed. If he turns his attention to some other chew toy, Poilievre has a chance to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Maybe.

Jagmeet Singh, meanwhile, is now in single digits in some polls. The Liberal Party – thanks to Trump – has stampeded worried New Democrat voters into the waiting arms of Mark Carney. This race will be Singh’s last campaign as his party’s leader.

Could any of my SWOT analysis change? Of course! Everything has already changed, dramatically, in the past few weeks, and it could all change again during the campaign that starts today.

But right now, the SWOT says the election is Mark Carney’s to lose – and here we go!

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