Liberals maintain slim lead as poll numbers stabilize

The Liberals are seeing 43% of decided support, while the Conservatives are four points behind at 39%

Published Apr 26, 2025 • Last updated 1 hour ago • 2 minute read

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, left, and Prime Minister and Liberal Party chief Mark Carney speak during the English Federal Leaders Debate broadcast at CBC-Radio-Canada, in Montreal on April 17, 2025. Photo by ADRIAN WYLD / POOL / AFP /Getty Images

OTTAWA — With election day fast approaching, poll numbers have largely held steady over the past week.

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New numbers released Saturday by Leger suggest Monday night’s election is either party’s to lose — with the Liberals maintaining their slim four-point lead over the Tories.

The Liberals are currently pulling 43% of decided support to the Tories’ 39%, making this a clear two-horse race in what’s turned out to be a relatively uneventful election campaign.

“When I think back on it, I don’t think either campaign had bad weeks, I don’t know if they had brilliant weeks,” said Leger’s Andrew Enns.

“They stuck to their message.”

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The totally-collapsed NDP maintain their single-digit support with 8%, just ahead of the Bloc Quebecois’ 6%, the Green Party’s 2% and 1% for the People’s Party of Canada.

Support for the Liberals remain firmly rooted in both Ontario and voters aged 55+, while Alberta remains Canada’s Tory stronghold, with voters 35 to 54 favouring the Conservatives.

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While many pundits predict a Liberal minority, Enns said the Liberal lead in Ontario and British Columbia don’t tell the whole story.

“I think there’s still going to be some really interesting regional competitiveness,” he said, pointing to recent loosening of numbers in numerous Greater Toronto Area ridings.

“For those who say ‘the Liberals got an eight-point lead in Ontario, Ontario is a huge province for ridings, this is kind of a slam dunk,’ I’d caution that kind of thinking.”

Leads in polls, Enns said, aren’t guaranteed victories.

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Forty per cent of those polled think Mark Carney would make the best prime minister, one point down from last week, while those who prefer Pierre Poilievre stayed constant at 31%.

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More Liberals (82%) think Carney is running a better campaign than Conservatives (75%) who said Poilievre was running a better campaign.

NDP voters, however, think Carney’s running a better campaign (28%) than their own leader Jagmeet Singh (21%) — with “I don’t know” ranking as the most popular response (38%).

As for who those polled think will win on Monday, 54% said it’ll be Carney, 27% said Poilievre, and 16% didn’t know.

While 87% of Liberals, 72% of BQ supporters and 66% of New Democrats think Carney will be Canada’s next PM, only 63% of declared Tory voters think Poilievre will win.

The poll was conducted between April 21 and 25 of 1,502 Canadian adults via Leger’s online panel.

As margins of error don’t apply to online panels, a comparable sample size would yield a margin of ±2.53%.