As Malaysia assumes the role of ASEAN Chair in 2025, the spotlight turns to its capacity to steer a region rife with geopolitical complexities and growing expectations. This position offers Malaysia a unique opportunity to project itself as a middle power – a concept that, while often nebulous, carries significant implications for its foreign policy, leadership style, and aspirations.
Middle powers, in the international relations lexicon, are states that do not wield the global influence of superpowers but play a crucial role in shaping regional and international order through diplomacy, coalition-building, and niche leadership. For Malaysia, being a middle power means leveraging its geopolitical position, diplomatic expertise, and multilateral engagement to influence outcomes within ASEAN and beyond.
Having said that, Malaysia’s position as a middle power within ASEAN has never been more critical. In a world increasingly defined by great power rivalries, Malaysia plays a pivotal role in maintaining ASEAN’s relevance and unity. Recent geopolitical developments, such as China’s aggressive maritime claims in the South China Sea and U.S. President Donald Trump’s transactional foreign policy, have reshaped the regional order. Trump’s “America First” approach, characterized by reduced multilateral engagement and a focus on unilateral gains, diminished ASEAN centrality, leaving Malaysia to navigate an increasingly fragmented and volatile region.
The Myanmar Crisis: Testing ASEAN’s Credibility
The ongoing crisis in Myanmar has further exposed ASEAN’s limitations and Malaysia’s potential to lead reform. During the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat in Langkawi on January 19, Malaysia announced that it has appointed former diplomat Othman Hashim as its special envoy to Myanmar, underscoring its commitment to resolving the ongoing crisis. Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan also emphasized that the priority should be to cease hostilities and initiate inclusive dialogue among all stakeholders, rather than proceeding with elections amid ongoing violence. This initiative reflects Malaysia’s proactive stance in addressing regional challenges and its dedication to fostering peace and stability within ASEAN.
ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus has failed to deliver meaningful outcomes, largely due to the junta’s non-compliance and the bloc’s consensus-based decision-making.
Malaysia has emerged as a vocal critic of ASEAN’s inaction, with successive foreign ministers calling for a tougher stance on Myanmar. In 2022, Malaysia supported engaging directly with the National Unity Government (NUG) and other opposition groups, breaking with ASEAN’s traditional deference to state sovereignty. In contrast, countries like Thailand have engaged the junta directly, bypassing the consensus framework and highlighting ASEAN’s divisions.
Reform is long overdue. Malaysia could champion the introduction of more flexible decision-making mechanisms, such as majority voting, in ASEAN’s handling of crises. While this may face resistance, especially from member states wary of setting precedents that could backfire domestically, Malaysia’s leadership in pushing for institutional change is vital to preserving ASEAN’s credibility.
Middle Power Activism in an Age of Polarization
Malaysia’s middle-power diplomacy must also contend with a reshaped global order. The Trump administration’s “America First” approach weakened multilateralism, leaving institutions like the United Nations less equipped to address global challenges. Although the Biden administration sought to restore faith in international cooperation, the China-U.S. rivalry remained an overarching theme. This rivalry has spilled into ASEAN, with both powers competing for influence through economic initiatives like the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
For Malaysia, walking this tightrope requires both tact and strategy. Malaysia is a participant in IPEF but remains heavily reliant on Chinese trade. This balancing act reflects Malaysia’s broader commitment to an inclusive Indo-Pacific, as outlined in its endorsement of the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). The AOIP underscores the importance of rules-based multilateralism and rejects the binary framing of China-U.S. competition.
Beyond economics, Malaysia has also demonstrated leadership on global issues such as climate change. During COP28 in 2023, Malaysia reaffirmed its commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, recognizing the existential threat climate change poses to the region. As a biodiversity hotspot and one of the most disaster-prone areas in the world, ASEAN needs leadership to prioritize climate action, and Malaysia is well-positioned to spearhead this effort.
Malaysia’s pragmatic approach to the South China Sea dispute exemplifies its ability to balance competing interests while prioritizing stability. Reports from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative reveal that China has ramped up its naval presence in disputed waters, including areas within Malaysia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). In response, Malaysia has adopted a dual strategy: lodging diplomatic protests and bolstering its maritime capabilities while avoiding overt confrontation. Kuala Lumpur’s focus remains on fostering regional cooperation through the long-overdue Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, underscoring its commitment to diplomacy over division.
The broader challenge lies in ASEAN’s internal fragmentation. Certain member states, such as Cambodia, have leaned heavily toward Beijing, undermining ASEAN’s ability to present a unified front. This internal discord weakens the bloc’s credibility and effectiveness in addressing regional challenges. For Malaysia, the task extends beyond protecting its sovereignty to rallying ASEAN into a more cohesive and resilient organization capable of resisting external pressures. The stakes are significant: If ASEAN’s divisions deepen, it risks becoming a peripheral player in the region’s strategic calculus, leaving member states more vulnerable to the whims of great power politics.
Leading ASEAN in a Fragmented World
Malaysia’s role as a middle power is both a responsibility and an opportunity. Amid a fragmented ASEAN and a polarized global landscape, Malaysia has the potential to bridge divides, whether by advancing institutional reforms within ASEAN, fostering regional cohesion, or championing multilateralism globally. However, this requires sharper, more proactive diplomacy that combines principles with pragmatism.
The recent geopolitical shifts and regional crises demand a Malaysia that is not just a participant in ASEAN but a leader within it. By embracing this role, Malaysia can ensure ASEAN remains a relevant, cohesive, and effective player in the Indo-Pacific, while safeguarding its own national interests in an era of heightened uncertainty. As Malaysia chairs ASEAN in 2025, the spotlight is on Kuala Lumpur to deliver on this promise. The stakes could not be higher, but neither could the opportunities.
