The military junta in Myanmar has extended its state of emergency for another six months, in order to prepare for an election that it has promised to hold sometime later this year.
According to a report in the state-run Global New Light of Myanmar, the decision was made at a meeting of the military-controlled National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) on Friday, at which coup leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said that more time was needed to restore “stability” before polls could be organized.
“The election must be systematic, free and fair fully and it must be prestigious,” the Global New Light reported, paraphrasing Min Aung Hlaing’s comments. To achieve this, it added, it is “essential” to restore “peace and stability in relevant regions.”
In announcing the extension on its Telegram channel, the state-run broadcaster MRTV said that there were “still more tasks to be done to hold the general election successfully,” again citing the need for “stability and peace,” Reuters reported.
The extension of the state of emergency came a day ahead of the fourth anniversary of the military coup that overthrew the country’s civilian government in 2021. The extension is the seventh that the junta has announced since, as it has struggled to put down a nationwide uprising against its deeply repressive rule. During Friday’s meeting, Min Aung Hlaing cited the widespread “acts of terrorism” and the “coordinated efforts… to incite widespread acts of violence” throughout the country. These have “cause[d] delays in progress,” he added.
Indeed, over the past 18 months, the regime has lost considerable territory to the loose coalition of ethnic armed groups and anti-regime militias seeking its overthrow. The losses have been especially dramatic in Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army (AA) has succeeded in corralling the Myanmar military into small areas, including in the state capital Sittwe, and in northern Shan State, where the AA’s allies in the Three Brotherhood Alliance have captured large swathes of territory and control key trade routes with China.
At the same time, the United Nations estimates that Myanmar’s conflict has now displaced more than 3 million people, while around a third of the population is in need of humanitarian assistance. In a report published last month, the U.N. Development Programme said that Myanmar now faces a “polycrisis” characterized by “political instability… entrenched conflict, economic disruptions, severe human rights violations, and worsening environmental degradation.” This polycrisis “has pushed millions into poverty, with half of the population living below the poverty line and a further one third just barely above it.” In its coverage of the fourth anniversary of the coup, The Irrawaddy wrote that Myanmar “has become a battleground, with millions suffering the consequences.”
While nobody expects the elections to be anything approaching free and inclusive – in 2023, the junta dissolved 40 political parties, including the former ruling National League for Democracy – even mounting a sham theatrical poll will be challenging in these circumstances. Since 2021, the regime has been forced repeatedly to delay its election plans due to the deteriorating security situation – something that has worsened markedly since the end of 2023. For one measure of the challenge, the junta’s pre-election census, which it held late last year, could only be conducted in full in 145 of the country’s 330 townships, according to the military’s own accounting. In addition, it was able to conduct partial counts in 127 townships, and was unable to collect any data at all in 58 townships.
As Reuters reported last week, citing “a source with knowledge of discussions in Naypyidaw,” the regime is currently planning to hold the election in 160-170 of the country’s townships, with an election date likely to fall toward the end of the year. “They want to go ahead,” the source added.
In its plan to hold an election, the junta has a strong partner in China, which has supported the polls as a possible prelude to a comprehensive political settlement and an end, or at least a containment, of the current conflict. To this end, it has pushed major rebel groups in northern Shan State close to the Chinese border to cease their offensives against the junta and return to the negotiating table – with some success.
Last month, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which last year seized the major city of Lashio, the location of the military’s Northeast regional Command, agreed to a ceasefire. According to some reports, this will involve its eventual withdrawal from Lashio, presumably in advance of the junta’s planned election. The MNDAA’s allies, the Arakan Army (AA) and Ta’ang National Liberation Army, have also announced their willingness to take part in China-brokered ceasefire talks.
Even with Beijing’s support, however, it is likely that the junta will struggle to administer an election. Last week’s extension of the state of emergency is a sign that the military authorities lack the confidence to announce a definitive date, which might catalyze renewed military operations by resistance groups. Even the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which would probably have no opposition to an election if it could help bring Myanmar’s conflict to an end, has counseled caution. At a meeting late last month, ASEAN foreign ministers told the junta that an election should not be its priority, instead urging it to start dialogue and “stop the violence.”
In comments to Reuters, David Mathieson, an independent analyst of Myanmar’s politics, said that any attempt to hold an election would likely be staunchly opposed by the resistance, many parts of which have already expressed their intention to prevent the polls from going ahead in territories under their control.
“There is a very real danger these elections could turn into a bloodbath if revolutionary forces decide to attack polling stations, election officials, and party candidates,” Mathieson said.
